Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

Trying to keep it short:

crank down the amount of the bet, if the amount bothers you

If the bet is +EV for me, I try to bet as much as possible, bounded by the Kelly formula of course. If it is -EV, I don't bet anything.

the money should just be a side issue, just to give assurance that you are willing to put some skin in the game

No thanks. I bet to win, if at all.

Windjc would be willing to give you some odds.

Too late. He had ample time.

you, Rpietila, used the word "never" which implies that you think 100%, so you should be more than willing to bet 50% odds when you make such a statement.

"never" is part of the event clause: ( P("bitcoin will never go to 435") = X% ).

Never was it indicated that X equals 0%.

[tarmi]

30 days does not embody the full epicness of saying "never" when we are talking about the trigger being only $20 below the the price today. Also I don't want to change my 10:1 leverage to an arbitrary $500 especially as both agree than in P(98%) it will be hit in 90 days anyway. These are the changes. It seems clear that once again if you are bullish on bitcoin, the best odds you get by buying it. If you are bearish, then you have a few weeks/months in the sun, and then you are replaced with a new generation. And I have seen many.

the epicness is already embodied in saying "never".

so, the only question here is are we going to see another rpietila's failed prediction.

Personally, I have NO problem with predictions being wrong.   Who cares?

I have a problem with someone saying that s/he will put money on his/her prediction, and then failing to commit to that course of action.  People are wrong all the time, and NO BIG deal, but if you say that you are going to put some money on your prediction, then make it happen.. to solidify the amount of money and the timeline and the triggering mechanisms for the payout(s).. or at least make a  good faith attempt at 1 BTC or something.. at least you put some money on it.. like you said you were willing to do....

If you do NOT follow through with your statement and your proposal to make a bet, then you are merely trolling this thread to make the other people in the thread to do all the work in formulating the hypothetical that you apparently had NO intention to follow through with.

btctalk trolls do care about their reputation and predictions.

there is some serious math behind them and a 0 % possibility that they are wrong.
 

[chessnut]

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight  

Bold. Size of bet?
You consider ~1000% appreciation more likely than ~15% depreciation?

just $20, for now. Ill add more when we pass $500 again.

..... I dont really consider it more likely, but I am counting on a lot of 'NO' bets. If I can get 2/1 odds i'd be happy, but I think Ill get much better odds with so many bears around

imo there is a fair chance that capitulation has happened. if so, we are likely not going below $400 again. in that case $4000 before $400 is a fun bet  

  

The odds are NOT established at the time that you place the bet?  That would suck, if the odds keep changing forever... the odds have to lock in at some point when the betting is closed?  like horse racing.. but this is a little different b/c the horses are running while the bets are coming in.. and they close the bets on the last lap or some silly shit like that?

In my eyes, it would be more fun, if the odds were locked in at the time that I were to place my bet.... if i were to bet... otherwise, the whole thing seems to be fucked to be betting on horses while the horses are running.

"Every bet has two sides. Every bettor on the winning side will receive as follows : 99% of his original bet sum (1% goes to BitBet.us) plus 99% of his bet times the total bet by the losing side multiplied by his bet's total weight and divided by the winning side total weight."

this is a fun way to bet. if you are the first to bet, your weight is 100%. you can wait to the last minute and bet on an almost certain outcome, but your weight will be much smaller - therefore your winnings possibly not worth the risk.

If you place a bet that is evenly sided, and likely to be popular, you can win simply by betting on both sides. It's an incentive to be gutsy, and to make good bets.

If I place a .05 BTC bet on 'yes', and 20 bears bet 2 BTC on 'NO' then I stand to win 2BTC. if the price begins to climb to 4000, some bulls will bet yes, but they will be entitled to proportionately less than I will be of the 2BTC. I will still have very good odds.

That whole waited crap is why I never used the site. It's very difficult to calculate your actual odds even when you bet very late yourself. it cold very well be that by betting late you get less than 100% of your bet even when you win.

This is an incentive to make very popular bets. there comes a point where the weighting is so bad that it is not worth anybodies risk to bet. then if you have bet first, and on both sides, you can actually guarantee a win.

I expect this bet will attract a lot of 'no' bets. If the price passes $500 again, I am going to trap the nay sayers, and saturate the bet weighting. this could be a very good bet because the odds are by consensus high, and it is also an effective derivative to the BTC price. I only have to risk a small amount to start this bet, and I can play it how I want. thats why I made the terms.

[roslinpl]

Explanation

Well this seems not to be a perfect price ....


Should we consider to pump it up on our own?

[phatsphere]

MORE WALLS, less bets pls!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[akujin]

30 days does not embody the full epicness of saying "never" when we are talking about the trigger being only $20 below the the price today. Also I don't want to change my 10:1 leverage to an arbitrary $500 especially as both agree than in P(98%) it will be hit in 90 days anyway. These are the changes. It seems clear that once again if you are bullish on bitcoin, the best odds you get by buying it. If you are bearish, then you have a few weeks/months in the sun, and then you are replaced with a new generation. And I have seen many.

the epicness is already embodied in saying "never".

so, the only question here is are we going to see another rpietila's failed prediction.

Personally, I have NO problem with predictions being wrong.   Who cares?

I have a problem with someone saying that s/he will put money on his/her prediction, and then failing to commit to that course of action.  People are wrong all the time, and NO BIG deal, but if you say that you are going to put some money on your prediction, then make it happen.. to solidify the amount of money and the timeline and the triggering mechanisms for the payout(s).. or at least make a  good faith attempt at 1 BTC or something.. at least you put some money on it.. like you said you were willing to do....

If you do NOT follow through with your statement and your proposal to make a bet, then you are merely trolling this thread to make the other people in the thread to do all the work in formulating the hypothetical that you apparently had NO intention to follow through with.

btctalk trolls do care about their reputation and predictions.

there is some serious math behind them and a 0 % possibility that they are wrong.
 

 

[dreamspark]

I expect it to die or at least become dormant, yes.  What I was trying to say is that it may go out almost invisibly.  The volume numbers are misleading.  They can effect subjective impressions, but not supply and demand.   I think price is low enough now so that demand is largely insensitive to price.  Even stronger:  Most of the non-churn demand is very inelastic.  But the fiat turnover will have to decline as the coins are drained by the arbitrageurs, and the impact of arbitrage on the free market will be limited to that quantity of supply.  I would expect it to decline very suddenly, and perhaps resume intermittently as the last few elastic coins get shaken out in spurts, then the supply impact would end completely.  Because this will be invisible to us, it will just be a slight supply cliff, mostly lost in the noise, visible primarily in price decoupling.  The sentiment reaction may be early or late.  If it takes a long time for price decoupling to become obvious, and the exchange remains operational, sentiment may be very late indeed, and the reaction almost invisibly slow.  

Very well put aminorex, I have been thinking this over for the last few days and I think what your saying is spot on. The fact is that if the external volume is fake(or increased by being 0 fee) it obfuscates the demand and the amount of coins in China even more. I agree that the decoupling has begun to a degree and people waiting for that to happen will likely be too late. All this hinges on the belief though that the majority of coins are not in China which I think will be the case due to the 4 months of one way arbing as the Chinese have sold out.

[chessnut]

Some people like to mistake propositions for guarantees. It means they have someone to blame when they lose, but still they have an excuse to chase a free lunch.

why should speculators on a speculation forum have to begin and end every sentence with 'probably imo'?

[dreamspark]

Nice poll question Adam most interesting in a while, the results so far are surprising.

[Meman]

If the price breaks below 400 (that's not for sure, but quite possible) it may stay there for some time. But chances are good, that it'll be pumped up again (big media attention, max keiser going crazy about bitcoins etc.). Nobody knows when the bottom is in and it may be a good idea, to cost average into bitcoins, when prices are low (now they are not low imho). And be warned, it's a big gamble, so don't bet your house

[nanobrain]

Some people like to mistake propositions for guarantees. It means they have someone to blame when they lose, but still they have an excuse to chase a free lunch.

why should speculators on a speculation forum have to begin and end every sentence with 'probably imo'?

Because most posters don't change their PoV every fifteen minutes or claim to constantly be 'right'.

Most posters slowly earn people's respect and some latitude, newbs who fish bomb the forum with their vicarious opinions are quickly seen for what they are - loud-mouthed attention seekers.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ShroomsKit]

Can you idiots stop filling up whole pages with your pathetic attention seeking betting shit?

[chessnut]

Some people like to mistake propositions for guarantees. It means they have someone to blame when they lose, but still they have an excuse to chase a free lunch.

why should speculators on a speculation forum have to begin and end every sentence with 'probably imo'?

Because most posters don't change their PoV every fifteen minutes or claim to constantly be 'right'.

Most posters slowly earn people's respect and some latitude, newbs who fish bomb the forum with their vicarious opinions are quickly seen for what they are - loud-mouthed attention seekers.

If you are accusing me of doing this, this really underlines your entire misunderstanding of what I am doing. I am 80% a holder, and 20% a day trader. Maybe this is why you are so confused. short term and long term are very different things. I dont hold a crystal ball, but I do not have to declare this every time I express an idea or an opinion. Im not going to put up with your strawman arguments, maybe that's why you percieve my need to be 'right'.

[JorgeStolfi]

I guess this would just end up like Pacquiao vs Mayweather  

The image that comes to my mind is a sumo wrestling match to be played with the speed of a chess-by-mail match.
(No offense intended.)

[rpietila]

Some basics if you want to use the exponential trendline, or contend against its use. Two things must be observed:

- The base value of the trendline
- The deviation of the current price from the trend, expressed in log10 units (1 unit = price is 90% lower or 900% higher).

The range where the deviation typically wanders, which is seen as booms and crashes in the price chart, is -0.4...0.5 log units.

In 2014-7-15, for example:

-0.4 => $0.75
-0.3 => $0.95
-0.2 => $1.20
-0.1 => $1.53
0.0 => $1.94
+0.1 => $2.47
+0.2 => $3.10
+0.3 => $3.95
+0.4 => $4.90
+0.5 => $6.30.

This is a very wide range (basically a whole order of magnitude), so the trendline price in any future point cannot very accurately predict what the actual price in that point is. In the short term, the obscene range makes it useless, in the longer term, there are other uncertainties.

What it can do, however, is to gauge the buy and sell zones, which are points where the current price deviates from the trendline price significantly. At present we are in buy zone, because the current price is about -0.35 log units below the trendline price. Similarly in November we were in sell zone when the current price was over 0.4 units above.

The next sell signal comes when the price goes to 0.4 the next time, and it is unlikely to happen before July, so it is likewise unlikely for the top to be any lower than $5k.

In 2013-11-23 it gave a sell signal at $872. The buy signal came in 2014-3-30 at $460.

For the funds that were thus risked, the return was +90% in 4 months.

[chromosoma]

Still waiting for bitcoin  death:) Just a bit more, few months maybe
I know i am just a bit impatient:)

[JorgeStolfi]

Meanwhile, it looks like Huobi may end the day with the lowest daily volume since Dec/03, lower even than "DDOS Sunday"'s (Mar/23).

Has anyone seen any public response by them to the latest PBoC news? (The red-lamp announcement on their homepage has not changed since Apr/17.)

[podyx]

Risto, the log10 units are based on the trendline

How can you be so sure that your trendline is correct? It might work for now but it's gonna make a pretty big difference in the future
I will be using this method for the next bubble however