Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ShroomsKit]

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

wow! stamp at 425!
Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Loser!
Congratulations to rpietila!
Here's your trophy


 

 

[wachtwoord]

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

wow! stamp at 425!
Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Loser!
Congratulations to rpietila!
Here's your trophy

 

 

He will likely still tie the bet (that was never confirmed)

[aminorex]

In most exchanges, trades usually happen at the ends of the spread, when a buyer or a seller moves his order to meet a waiting order on the other side.  However, the last time I looked at the individual trades at OKCoin, there were many small trades that occurred at random prices within the spread.   Perhaps (I haven't checked) these middle-of-spread trades account for the steady background of volume (~10% of total volume) that one sees at OKCoin (and only there).

The explanation I can think of for these middle-of-spread trades is a buyer and a seller (perhaps the same person) agreeing to post matching orders at the same instant at that price.  Such "rendez-vous" trades could be a way to launder bitcoins and/or money in a way that would be difficult for the police to trace, even if they had access to the deposit and withdrawal records of all the exchange's clients (which the exchanges presumably provide).  

Only by analyzing the trade logs one could figure out who ended up transfering money to whom.  Even then, if the trick is played with three or more client accounts (A "loses money" trading with B, who "loses money" trading with C, etc.) it may be impossible to detect intentional money transfers, say from a businessman to a government official.

Sad to see what has happened to your mind, Jorge.  You've jumped the shark again.  That's not how exchanges work.  It's also about 1000x more complicated and risky and public than it needs to be to accomplish the supposed ends of this unworkable scheme.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

So we hit 440 a couple of days ago, rallied weakly and then cut through it like cream cheese today down to 420.  

Now everyone thinks the downward momentum is "slowing down."  340 has to be the low, right?

No.  The bad news hasn't even happened yet in China.

What's the market going to do when OKCoin announces that it has been confirmed to them that they can no longer use deposit codes and authorized buyers? Whats the market going to do when Houbi announces the same? Whats the market going to do when these exchanges announce they are shutting down or moving offshore?

All we had so far was an article about a behind closed doors meeting where the PBOC asked for these things to happen.

And that brought us from 505 down to 420.  

Added to all this is the fact that after 340 sentiment became BULLISH. And it is still more bullish now than it was when we were here a few weeks ago before the dive to 340.

Which means when we dive below 400 again to test 340 the bulls are going to be CRUSHED.  If we go below 340, every bullish case is DEAD.

Bulls will have nothing to say, no psuedo EW analysis (ie chessnut), no TA, no fundamental arguments. Bulls will have to give up.

And THEN - only then - can we started looking for true capitulation.

PS BTW - it took less than 24 hours for me to win my bet with Rpietila.  That didnt take long at all.

[solex]

The explanation I can think of for these middle-of-spread trades is a buyer and a seller (perhaps the same person) agreeing to post matching orders at the same instant at that price.  Such "rendez-vous" trades could be a way to launder bitcoins and/or money in a way that would be difficult for the police to trace, even if they had access to the deposit and withdrawal records of all the exchange's clients (which the exchanges presumably provide).  

No. The explanation is that OKCoin is faking volume (to make themselves "more important") with an exchange controlled bot acting within the spread.

[JorgeStolfi]

A smart professional trading advisor will tell his paying clients to sell while offering free public advice to buy, and vice-versa.

A really smart professional trading advisor will realize that the public will see through that ruse, and advise the public to buy when he wants them to sell.

A really really smart professional trading advisor will know that the public will see through that too, and ...

A smart member of the public should ignore any free advice to buy or sell anything.

[windjc]

What the hell is going on over at Bitcoinwisdom? I still cannot see the updated Houbi chart.

And why is this happening to some people and not others?

[bigdave]

Just pushed back above 440 on stamp.

[podyx]

Yeah, because Bitcoin is sooooooo static.

By next summer the bitcoin-eco system is going to be 10x what it is today. There are so many big projects being worked on right now. I truely believe we will have a "killer app" or two by then amongst other innovations.

The price won't be $500. And no one will be complaining.

Let's see, if 2014 can do what 2013 did then we will be at 100k a BTC next November.

10-->1000
1000-->100000

Math's right, yes?

I wish I had another $500k to invest in bitcoin right now.

This next leg up is going to be epic. Hopefully we bounce around for another week or so before it breaks out.

Burn the bear! Burn the bear! (LOL )

i'm really curious on what happend to this windjc that I knew of
What has made you gone so bearish?

[knarzo]

So we hit 440 a couple of days ago, rallied weakly and then cut through it like cream cheese today down to 420.  

Now everyone thinks the downward momentum is "slowing down."  340 has to be the low, right?

No.  The bad news hasn't even happened yet in China.

What's the market going to do when OKCoin announces that it has been confirmed to them that they can no longer use deposit codes and authorized buyers? Whats the market going to do when Houbi announces the same? Whats the market going to do when these exchanges announce they are shutting down or moving offshore?

All we had so far was an article about a behind closed doors meeting where the PBOC asked for these things to happen.

And that brought us from 505 down to 420.  

Added to all this is the fact that after 340 sentiment became BULLISH. And it is still more bullish now than it was when we were here a few weeks ago before the dive to 340.

Which means when we dive below 400 again to test 340 the bulls are going to be CRUSHED.  If we go below 340, every bullish case is DEAD.

Bulls will have nothing to say, no psuedo EW analysis (ie chessnut), no TA, no fundamental arguments. Bulls will have to give up.

And THEN - only then - can we started looking for true capitulation.

PS BTW - it took less than 24 hours for me to win my bet with Rpietila.  That didnt take long at all.

Then they will sell deposit cards with soccer players of the coming worldcup printed on as collectible cards How would they want to stop that? Just curious..

[njcarlos]

i'm curious on what happend to this windjc that I knew of

Finally saw the writing on the wall.

[N12]

Yeah, because Bitcoin is sooooooo static.

By next summer the bitcoin-eco system is going to be 10x what it is today. There are so many big projects being worked on right now. I truely believe we will have a "killer app" or two by then amongst other innovations.

The price won't be $500. And no one will be complaining.

i'm curious on what happend to this windjc that I knew of

I just wanted to ask, because I remember him chastising me and others for suggesting a bear market because fundamentals. Those fundamentals haven't changed as far as I see.

Anyway, hopefully the bet was finalized. Congrats on winning.

[wachtwoord]

Yeah, because Bitcoin is sooooooo static.

By next summer the bitcoin-eco system is going to be 10x what it is today. There are so many big projects being worked on right now. I truely believe we will have a "killer app" or two by then amongst other innovations.

The price won't be $500. And no one will be complaining.

Let's see, if 2014 can do what 2013 did then we will be at 100k a BTC next November.

10-->1000
1000-->100000

Math's right, yes?

I wish I had another $500k to invest in bitcoin right now.

This next leg up is going to be epic. Hopefully we bounce around for another week or so before it breaks out.

Burn the bear! Burn the bear! (LOL )

i'm really curious on what happend to this windjc that I knew of
What has made you gone so bearish?

He was overly enthusiastic and now he's overly pessimistic. One day our little grasshopper will learn

[windjc]

Yeah, because Bitcoin is sooooooo static.

By next summer the bitcoin-eco system is going to be 10x what it is today. There are so many big projects being worked on right now. I truely believe we will have a "killer app" or two by then amongst other innovations.

The price won't be $500. And no one will be complaining.

i'm curious on what happend to this windjc that I knew of

I just wanted to ask, because I remember him chastising me and others for suggesting a bear market because fundamentals. Those fundamentals haven't changed as far as I see.

Anyway, hopefully the bet was finalized. Congrats on winning.

Of course the bet wasn't finalized. Have you EVER seen Rpeitila actually put his money where his mouth is? You've been here longer than any of us.

Those quotes that were posted of me from months ago - that was a different me. I had only experienced the bull market - I got involved in September. I was caught up in the fever.

Now I am getting to experience the bear. This has been an excellent experience for me.

If we are all lucky enough to see another bull market - if bitcoin does succeed (who knows?) - then I will be greatly prepared to capitalized off of it both ways.

I should have sold at 1100. I should have shorted all the way down.

I was too naive to do so and it cost me millions.  

Not anymore.

There is more suffering to come people. Bitcoin went up 3000% last year. 2014 is a year for pain.

If I were to guess, we are going to reach a point in the next 6 months where the very survival of bitcoin will come into question - not because if we drop to 260 or below that it actually means anything - but because people will perceive it to mean so much - miners will panic, VCs will panic, companies will tout other altcoins.

And that will be the time to buy. Although, without China, we won't see 3000% annual gains anymore. That was a special case.

[podyx]

Thanks for a good answer

[y3804]

Yeah, because Bitcoin is sooooooo static.

By next summer the bitcoin-eco system is going to be 10x what it is today. There are so many big projects being worked on right now. I truely believe we will have a "killer app" or two by then amongst other innovations.

The price won't be $500. And no one will be complaining.

i'm curious on what happend to this windjc that I knew of

I just wanted to ask, because I remember him chastising me and others for suggesting a bear market because fundamentals. Those fundamentals haven't changed as far as I see.

Anyway, hopefully the bet was finalized. Congrats on winning.

Of course the bet wasn't finalized. Have you EVER seen Rpeitila actually put his money where his mouth is? You've been here longer than any of us.

Those quotes that were posted of me from months ago - that was a different me. I had only experienced the bull market - I got involved in September. I was caught up in the fever.

Now I am getting to experience the bear. This has been an excellent experience for me.

If we are all lucky enough to see another bull market - if bitcoin does succeed (who knows?) - then I will be greatly prepared to capitalized off of it both ways.

I should have sold at 1100. I should have shorted all the way down.

I was too naive to do so and it cost me millions.  

Not anymore.

There is more suffering to come people. Bitcoin went up 3000% last year. 2014 is a year for pain.

If I were to guess, we are going to reach a point in the next 6 months where the very survival of bitcoin will come into question - not because if we drop to 260 or below that it actually means anything - but because people will perceive it to me so much - miners will panic, VCs will panic, companies will tout other altcoins.

And that will be the time to buy. Although, without China, we won't see 3000% annual gains anymore. That was a special case.

you're a rich man!

[windjc]

Yeah, because Bitcoin is sooooooo static.

By next summer the bitcoin-eco system is going to be 10x what it is today. There are so many big projects being worked on right now. I truely believe we will have a "killer app" or two by then amongst other innovations.

The price won't be $500. And no one will be complaining.

Let's see, if 2014 can do what 2013 did then we will be at 100k a BTC next November.

10-->1000
1000-->100000

Math's right, yes?

I wish I had another $500k to invest in bitcoin right now.

This next leg up is going to be epic. Hopefully we bounce around for another week or so before it breaks out.

Burn the bear! Burn the bear! (LOL )

i'm really curious on what happend to this windjc that I knew of
What has made you gone so bearish?

He was overly enthusiastic and now he's overly pessimistic. One day our little grasshopper will learn

I'm overly pessimistic?

I closed all my shorts today. I'm waiting. I would call that short term neutral.

I actually think we are at a psychological crossroads.  Much sentiment, including yours, is bullish. Mostly of this is based on the assumption 340 was the low. And that assumption is based on charts from 2013 (I'm still trying to understand how that matters as this is 2014).

I concede that on the bullish side there is support - or, rather, at least a strong desire to pick bottoms.

But I cannot get past the damage left to be done by the killing off of the chinese market, which hasnt capitulated yet.

Also, and just as importantly, is the continued absence of fresh fiat.

I don't see a lot of support between here and 340. There is some on bitstamp. There is none on Bitfinex (where the margin traders are).

If we continue to cut through 420, 400, 380 - we may see the devastation of bullishness. That would be nice.

[SFHere]

What the hell is going on over at Bitcoinwisdom? I still cannot see the updated Houbi chart.

And why is this happening to some people and not others?

Having the same problem.


On an unrelated note: Seems like this market is a fear driven market. Can't wait to see what happens monday.

[bigdave]

What the hell is going on over at Bitcoinwisdom? I still cannot see the updated Houbi chart.

And why is this happening to some people and not others?

Having the same problem.


On an unrelated note: Seems like this market is a fear driven market. Can't wait to see what happens monday.

Its already 10:30am Monday in China.