shmadz
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@theshmadz
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April 29, 2014, 03:05:24 AM |
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if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins' Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins Bitcoins are fungible, so even if they don't get dumped on the market, other coins that would have otherwise gone to the purchasers of the seized coins will get dumped on the market. Mathematically it is irrelevant if the result is selling pressure or lack of buying pressure. There is a downward price effect on the market either way. +1 Same goes for 200,000 Gox BTCs to be liquidated. And US goverment has now more than 500,000 BTC ?!? 30+k from Silk Road, 130+ personal Ullbricht stash plus 385k from this new drug dealer? This. The amount of seized BTC that has to be auctioned and dumped on the market is so high... At least 400K (GOX+Silk+others), if not more, probably sold well under $250 for each coin, ready to be dumped on the market at any point. Truth is, even a relatively small 20K dump could totally crash BTC's value to $50/coin. I could literally wake up one day and see BTC's value drop 50%. This will kill BTC's long term value, seriously scary stuffbold emphasis mine I don't think that the redistribution of a paltry 400,000 coins will "kill" bitoin's long term value. just another bump in the road (edit - ok "paltry" was a bad choice of words, what I should have said is "the redistribution of coins from the people that want to sell to the people that want to buy will not "kill" bitcoin. In fact, it is a good thing.") |
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TeeBone
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April 29, 2014, 03:15:20 AM |
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It's based on Austrian Business Cycle Theory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory Bitcoins need to flow from the people who use them less productively to the people who use them more productively. You can't have sustainable growth when incompetents control all the capital. Okay, now that's one of the most absurd misapplications of business cycle theory that I've ever seen. Is it? Who owns the most Bitcoins right now? Capitalists with experience in wealth creation outside of Bitcoin? No. It's largely people like me who bought them by maxing out credit cards. So how do capitalists acquire capital? Do they enrich reckless speculators or wait until the speculators are forced to partially or completely liquidate? I'm not saying I know that a sufficient number of coins hasn't already changed hands. That's possible, but what's certain is that selling pressure continues until all the people with the need to sell have sold. The people with the need to sell are people with negative cash flow outside of Bitcoin appreciation. Is your capital structured is such a way that time is your friend or your enemy? If you are positioned well, you shouldn't care if the market goes up down or sideways. Post of the month. Every newjack should heed this advice if long-term success is your goal. Not just for btc, but overall investing. |
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JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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April 29, 2014, 03:15:45 AM |
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It's based on Austrian Business Cycle Theory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory Bitcoins need to flow from the people who use them less productively to the people who use them more productively. You can't have sustainable growth when incompetents control all the capital. Okay, now that's one of the most absurd misapplications of business cycle theory that I've ever seen. I don't claim to be an expert in any of these various economic theories, but there seems to be some sense in what BJA is saying - apart from his having to feel some kind of irresistible urge to dish out insults regarding the competency and/or intelligence of regular people. I do believe that the status quo wealthy will put up quite a bit of a battle in any redistribution of wealth attempts in order that redistribution of wealth is only minimum.. In other words the status quo wealthy use any tools at their disposal by hook or by crook to ensure that redistribution of wealth does NOT leave them hanging high and dry. They may NOT be too successful with bitcoin b/c the train may leave some of them, but they are going to put up several obstacles along the way and secretly board at later stops. |
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JayJuanGee
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April 29, 2014, 03:24:15 AM |
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by the way, does anyone know the price that the Winklebros bought in at?
In this CNBC video, they confirm they they started accumulating in the single digits. In some other interview, I remember them saying "high single digits." Seems like the Wiklevos bros did NOT get GOXed.... at least, NOT directly. All of us bitcoin users or bitcoin user wann-a-bees were indirectly goxed to some extent. |
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Adrian-x
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April 29, 2014, 03:31:57 AM |
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OK cheaper coins coming in, but not that I have $22,000 per day to invest, but that is not a lot of cash globally needed to come in to the average exchange to keep demand higher than production.
I'm banking supply dries up when AM gen3 chips are implemented and push up that difficulty.
In my thinking pushing up mining difficulty does NOT necessarily affect the BTC supply, it only concentrates the BTC supply into a smaller number of hands. A smaller number of miners holding BTC may mean that they are more likely to liquidate their coins, as part of their business model,.... rather than HODL.... or in the end, whether they HODL or dump could be a wash.... in other words it is NOT clear that increasing difficulty increases directly affects whether BTC are dumped or HODL'd. Yes exactly, AM has good cash flow and a good proportion of the coins fly to share holders. The new distribution = small change in information. But SR and GOX coins are another story. |
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JayJuanGee
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April 29, 2014, 03:40:27 AM |
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It's based on Austrian Business Cycle Theory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory Bitcoins need to flow from the people who use them less productively to the people who use them more productively. You can't have sustainable growth when incompetents control all the capital. Okay, now that's one of the most absurd misapplications of business cycle theory that I've ever seen. Is it? Who owns the most Bitcoins right now? Capitalists with experience in wealth creation outside of Bitcoin? No. It's largely people like me who bought them by maxing out credit cards. So how do capitalists acquire capital? Do they enrich reckless speculators or wait until the speculators are forced to partially or completely liquidate? I'm not saying I know that a sufficient number of coins hasn't already changed hands. That's possible, but what's certain is that selling pressure continues until all the people with the need to sell have sold. The people with the need to sell are people with negative cash flow outside of Bitcoin appreciation. Is your capital structured is such a way that time is your friend or your enemy? If you are positioned well, you shouldn't care if the market goes up down or sideways. Hopefully you have learned by your own words that it is NOT good to be overly leveraged in BTC b/c that could cause BTC to transfer from your hands to the hands of others at a loss to you. You frequently claim that you are NOT one of those people who get taken advantage of in the investment world.. but you als o assert that you are engaging in heavily leveraged behaviors.. which could come back to bite you in the butt if you are NOT careful.. ... accordingly, your butt will get burnt if you overly leverage in bitcoin and you are NOT able to manipulate prices. |
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JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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April 29, 2014, 03:41:25 AM |
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if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins' Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins I doubt that they are going to sell or liquidate those coins in large quantities, unless they are assured to get close to retail or above retail for them. |
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ChartBuddy
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 Online
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1776
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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April 29, 2014, 04:01:00 AM |
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Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay
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April 29, 2014, 04:04:40 AM |
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if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins' Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins Bitcoins are fungible, so even if they don't get dumped on the market, other coins that would have otherwise gone to the purchasers of the seized coins will get dumped on the market. Mathematically it is irrelevant if the result is selling pressure or lack of buying pressure. There is a downward price effect on the market either way. +1 Same goes for 200,000 Gox BTCs to be liquidated. And US goverment has now more than 500,000 BTC ?!? 30+k from Silk Road, 130+ personal Ullbricht stash plus 385k from this new drug dealer? This. The amount of seized BTC that has to be auctioned and dumped on the market is so high... At least 400K (GOX+Silk+others), if not more, probably sold well under $250 for each coin, ready to be dumped on the market at any point. Truth is, even a relatively small 20K dump could totally crash BTC's value to $50/coin. I could literally wake up one day and see BTC's value drop 50%. This will kill BTC's long term value, seriously scary stuffbold emphasis mine I don't think that the redistribution of a paltry 400,000 coins will "kill" bitoin's long term value. just another bump in the road (edit - ok "paltry" was a bad choice of words, what I should have said is "the redistribution of coins from the people that want to sell to the people that want to buy will not "kill" bitcoin. In fact, it is a good thing.") I was not saying anything about future repercussions - just begin to absorb the fact. US goverment is in the possession of more than 5% world supply of bitcoins  Surprising. Scary. Not was bitcoin was suppossed to be ... Perhaps that is why fed were so surprisingly friendly toward BTC? At least until they will sell? |
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nioc
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April 29, 2014, 04:19:01 AM |
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if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins' Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins The following is a quote from the article. "conducted more than 10,000 transactions on the black market website, earning 385,000 BTC in the process."This does not mean that he still had the 385k btc. Is this gross or net? did he spend any? How many did the govt actually get their hands on? The govt will use the biggest #s possible for the biggest PR effect. ETA: that is an avg of ~40 btc per transaction LOL |
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billyjoeallen
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Hide your women
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April 29, 2014, 04:23:01 AM |
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I don't claim to be an expert in any of these various economic theories, but there seems to be some sense in what BJA is saying - apart from his having to feel some kind of irresistible urge to dish out insults regarding the competency and/or intelligence of regular people.
I do believe that the status quo wealthy will put up quite a bit of a battle in any redistribution of wealth attempts in order that redistribution of wealth is only minimum..
In other words the status quo wealthy use any tools at their disposal by hook or by crook to ensure that redistribution of wealth does NOT leave them hanging high and dry. They may NOT be too successful with bitcoin b/c the train may leave some of them, but they are going to put up several obstacles along the way and secretly board at later stops.
I think it is quite possible bordering on probable that I am one of the incompetents I am referring to. It's not intended as an insult. It's just part of the theory. |
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JayJuanGee
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Activity: 3710
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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April 29, 2014, 04:39:08 AM |
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OK cheaper coins coming in, but not that I have $22,000 per day to invest, but that is not a lot of cash globally needed to come in to the average exchange to keep demand higher than production.
I'm banking supply dries up when AM gen3 chips are implemented and push up that difficulty.
In my thinking pushing up mining difficulty does NOT necessarily affect the BTC supply, it only concentrates the BTC supply into a smaller number of hands. A smaller number of miners holding BTC may mean that they are more likely to liquidate their coins, as part of their business model,.... rather than HODL.... or in the end, whether they HODL or dump could be a wash.... in other words it is NOT clear that increasing difficulty increases directly affects whether BTC are dumped or HODL'd. Calm down. They never said they had 385k -- that's his total gross. That's ~$200 million in todays valuation. If they had found that many, this arrest would be front page news. He probably spent most of the coins or has them hidden away. Since no specific numbers of impounded assets were mentioned, its possible that all they have (and sold) is his portion of the SR coins. They can't sell those coins until they get a conviction, right? Its not their coins until the conviction. This guy pleading guilty freed up his SR coins... I think that your response was meant to be directed at another post. |
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billyjoeallen
Legendary
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Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
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April 29, 2014, 04:47:14 AM |
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It's based on Austrian Business Cycle Theory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory Bitcoins need to flow from the people who use them less productively to the people who use them more productively. You can't have sustainable growth when incompetents control all the capital. Okay, now that's one of the most absurd misapplications of business cycle theory that I've ever seen. Is it? Who owns the most Bitcoins right now? Capitalists with experience in wealth creation outside of Bitcoin? No. It's largely people like me who bought them by maxing out credit cards. So how do capitalists acquire capital? Do they enrich reckless speculators or wait until the speculators are forced to partially or completely liquidate? I'm not saying I know that a sufficient number of coins hasn't already changed hands. That's possible, but what's certain is that selling pressure continues until all the people with the need to sell have sold. The people with the need to sell are people with negative cash flow outside of Bitcoin appreciation. Is your capital structured is such a way that time is your friend or your enemy? If you are positioned well, you shouldn't care if the market goes up down or sideways. Hopefully you have learned by your own words that it is NOT good to be overly leveraged in BTC b/c that could cause BTC to transfer from your hands to the hands of others at a loss to you. You frequently claim that you are NOT one of those people who get taken advantage of in the investment world.. but you als o assert that you are engaging in heavily leveraged behaviors.. which could come back to bite you in the butt if you are NOT careful.. ... accordingly, your butt will get burnt if you overly leverage in bitcoin and you are NOT able to manipulate prices. Yes, I have learned at some expense. I have recouped my initial investment with enough profit to endure a prolonged bear market should it be necessary. The BTC I have in cold storage will have to be sufficient if an unexpected rally prevents me from adding to my holdings. |
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JayJuanGee
Legendary
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Activity: 3710
Merit: 10221
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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April 29, 2014, 04:53:01 AM |
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if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins' Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins Bitcoins are fungible, so even if they don't get dumped on the market, other coins that would have otherwise gone to the purchasers of the seized coins will get dumped on the market. Mathematically it is irrelevant if the result is selling pressure or lack of buying pressure. There is a downward price effect on the market either way. +1 Same goes for 200,000 Gox BTCs to be liquidated. And US goverment has now more than 500,000 BTC ?!? 30+k from Silk Road, 130+ personal Ullbricht stash plus 385k from this new drug dealer? This. The amount of seized BTC that has to be auctioned and dumped on the market is so high... At least 400K (GOX+Silk+others), if not more, probably sold well under $250 for each coin, ready to be dumped on the market at any point. Truth is, even a relatively small 20K dump could totally crash BTC's value to $50/coin. I could literally wake up one day and see BTC's value drop 50%. This will kill BTC's long term value, seriously scary stuff In recent postings, you have become quite intense in your FUD spreading. Your above post is filled with many unfounded assumptions. Coins would have to be sold for much below market rate before there would be an incentive to dump. I do NOT see whey the GOVT would sell BTC below market rate unless there is some kind of collusion.. .for example selling to some big bank that wants to bring down the BTC market. |
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y3804
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April 29, 2014, 04:57:26 AM |
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In recent postings, you have become quite intense in your FUD spreading.
Your above post is filled with many unfounded assumptions. Coins would have to be sold for much below market rate before there would be an incentive to dump. I do NOT see whey the GOVT would sell BTC below market rate unless there is some kind of collusion.. .for example selling to some big bank that wants to bring down the BTC market.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=577764.0 |
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ChartBuddy
Legendary
Online
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1776
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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April 29, 2014, 05:00:56 AM |
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TERA
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April 29, 2014, 05:01:19 AM |
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if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins' Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins Bitcoins are fungible, so even if they don't get dumped on the market, other coins that would have otherwise gone to the purchasers of the seized coins will get dumped on the market. Mathematically it is irrelevant if the result is selling pressure or lack of buying pressure. There is a downward price effect on the market either way. +1 Same goes for 200,000 Gox BTCs to be liquidated. And US goverment has now more than 500,000 BTC ?!? 30+k from Silk Road, 130+ personal Ullbricht stash plus 385k from this new drug dealer? This. The amount of seized BTC that has to be auctioned and dumped on the market is so high... At least 400K (GOX+Silk+others), if not more, probably sold well under $250 for each coin, ready to be dumped on the market at any point. Truth is, even a relatively small 20K dump could totally crash BTC's value to $50/coin. I could literally wake up one day and see BTC's value drop 50%. This will kill BTC's long term value, seriously scary stuff In recent postings, you have become quite intense in your FUD spreading. Your above post is filled with many unfounded assumptions. Coins would have to be sold for much below market rate before there would be an incentive to dump. I do NOT see whey the GOVT would sell BTC below market rate unless there is some kind of collusion.. .for example selling to some big bank that wants to bring down the BTC market. I don't think that the government cares about or believes in a 'market rate' of bitcoin. The market is a manipulated game that we traders play against eachother and has meaning only to us. It is a very fragile illusion caused by hoarding and could not possibly withstand any signiifcant amount of selling. It would take a year to distribute all the those coins at market rate and doing so might cause a collapse and we're not even sure bitcoin will survive till then without some kind of technical glitch. The government is not a big bitcoin bull like you. The government does not want to speculate. What the government wants is cash, in their pocket, now. So if they can manage to sell all the coins and get a substantial amount of cash via large block trades under market rates offline, then they will do so and that would be great for them - a big success. They want a certainty, and a closed deal. I believe this is how the government operates will all kinds of seized assets, selling them at auctions for ridiculously low prices. |
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Markus11
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April 29, 2014, 05:39:23 AM |
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The X-Files ....
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JorgeStolfi
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April 29, 2014, 05:46:31 AM
Last edit: April 29, 2014, 05:59:14 AM by JorgeStolfi |
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I don't think that the US government cares much about the seized bitcoins. They will not keep the bitcoins as investment or try to manipulate anything. As soon as the court confirms the seizure, they will sell them - not to make money, but because the law says that seized property must be sold and the money handed in to the Treasury. Since the coins are merchandise, not foreign currency, they will almost certainly be sold in public government auctions, like sized cars, boats, dried figs, or whatever. Not in the exchanges, not by private deals. Again, this is not their choice, it is what the law says. They will probably break the coins into lots just small enough to ensure that there will be enough bidders at the auctions, and perhaps spread the auctions over time for the same reason. Other than that, they will not worry much about getting the best price. They do not give a damn as to what the sale will do to the BTC price. That is my uderstanding of how US government officials think, from all that I have read over the years. EDIT: Sample auctions: http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/sales.htm |
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aminorex
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Activity: 1596
Merit: 1029
Sine secretum non libertas
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April 29, 2014, 05:48:10 AM |
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It's based on Austrian Business Cycle Theory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory Bitcoins need to flow from the people who use them less productively to the people who use them more productively. You can't have sustainable growth when incompetents control all the capital. Okay, now that's one of the most absurd misapplications of business cycle theory that I've ever seen. Is it? Who owns the most Bitcoins right now? Capitalists with experience in wealth creation outside of Bitcoin? No. It's largely people like me who bought them by maxing out credit cards. So how do capitalists acquire capital? Do they enrich reckless speculators or wait until the speculators are forced to partially or completely liquidate? I'm not saying I know that a sufficient number of coins hasn't already changed hands. That's possible, but what's certain is that selling pressure continues until all the people with the need to sell have sold. The people with the need to sell are people with negative cash flow outside of Bitcoin appreciation. Is your capital structured is such a way that time is your friend or your enemy? If you are positioned well, you shouldn't care if the market goes up down or sideways. That's all well and good, and I have no bones with any of that. But the relationship with your earlier misapplication of ABC is not one of derivation or implication. ABC is an actual structural model with predictive value, not an ideological hook on which to hang whatever you happen to be wearing that day. |
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