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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26380530 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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April 29, 2014, 06:00:55 AM


Explanation
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Once a transaction has 6 confirmations, it is extremely unlikely that an attacker without at least 50% of the network's computation power would be able to reverse it.
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April 29, 2014, 06:02:07 AM

US goverment is in the possession of more than 5% world supply of bitcoins   Angry Surprising. Scary. Not was bitcoin was suppossed to be ...

I don't think that's scary at all. Should we in fact transition to a monetary system with BTC playing a significant role (say 1 BTC = $200,000, for example), the government will still have no problem spending their stash in a short amount of time... what's next? A fiscally prudent government? I'm all for it!
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April 29, 2014, 06:18:06 AM

Any thoughts on this one? News released today. This could crash the price hard. 385000BTC for $3M USD? what?

http://www.coindesk.com/us-government-sells-silk-road-users-seized-bitcoins-for-3-million/

if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins'

Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins

Bitcoins are fungible, so even if they don't get dumped on the market, other coins that would have otherwise gone to the purchasers of the seized coins will get dumped on the market. Mathematically it is irrelevant if the result is selling pressure or lack of buying pressure. There is a downward price effect on the market either way.



+1 Same goes for 200,000 Gox BTCs to be liquidated.

And US goverment has now more than  500,000 BTC ?!? 30+k from Silk Road, 130+ personal Ullbricht stash plus 385k from this new drug dealer?

This. The amount of seized BTC that has  to be auctioned and dumped on the market is so high... At least 400K (GOX+Silk+others), if not more, probably sold well under $250 for each coin, ready to be dumped on the market at any point. Truth is, even a relatively small 20K dump could totally crash BTC's value to $50/coin.

I could literally wake up one day and see BTC's value drop 50%. This will kill BTC's  long term value, seriously scary stuff

bold emphasis mine

I don't think that the redistribution of a paltry 400,000 coins will "kill" bitoin's long term value.

just another bump in the road

(edit - ok "paltry" was a bad choice of words, what I should have said is "the redistribution of coins from the people that want to sell to the people that want to buy will not "kill" bitcoin. In fact, it is a good thing.")

I was not saying anything about future repercussions - just begin to absorb the fact.

US goverment is in the possession of more than 5% world supply of bitcoins   Angry Surprising. Scary. Not was bitcoin was suppossed to be ...

Perhaps that is why fed were so surprisingly friendly toward BTC? At least until they will sell?


The US Govt role in all of these bitcoin matters remains quite confusing, and can be interpreted in a variety of ways. 

I understand the various entities of the US Govt as bags of walking contradictions, and there is NO one US Govt.. b/c various entities talk out of two sides of their mouths and one entity does NOT know what another entity is doing and certainly the people do NOT know what the govt is doing b/c there are a lot of smoke and mirrors. 

 Accordingly, I would NOT put it passed various entities of the US Govt to also be holding onto the approximately 600K missing Gox coins.  Accordingly, the US govt is potentially holding 10% of the bitcoin supply.   
There may even be more nefarious activities going  on... in order to supply bitcoins and/or miners.   Govt entities can be very good at taking away property without due process.. especially if terrorism, porn, child molestation, murder, drug dealing and/or money laundering are used as rationals to justify govt intervention. 

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April 29, 2014, 06:18:34 AM

Huobi is certainly on a little rip.  Any idea why?
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April 29, 2014, 06:19:15 AM

Huobi is certainly on a little rip.  Any idea why?


Stamp too
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April 29, 2014, 06:24:03 AM

Huobi is certainly on a little rip.  Any idea why?


Stamp too

Anyone all in fiat? Might get expensive..
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April 29, 2014, 06:24:16 AM

Huobi is certainly on a little rip.  Any idea why?


Stamp too

Did some research. Absolutely nothing. Artificial pumping

Obviously stamp has to follow. lol
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April 29, 2014, 06:26:23 AM

Any thoughts on this one? News released today. This could crash the price hard. 385000BTC for $3M USD? what?

http://www.coindesk.com/us-government-sells-silk-road-users-seized-bitcoins-for-3-million/

if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins'

Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins

Bitcoins are fungible, so even if they don't get dumped on the market, other coins that would have otherwise gone to the purchasers of the seized coins will get dumped on the market. Mathematically it is irrelevant if the result is selling pressure or lack of buying pressure. There is a downward price effect on the market either way.



+1 Same goes for 200,000 Gox BTCs to be liquidated.

And US goverment has now more than  500,000 BTC ?!? 30+k from Silk Road, 130+ personal Ullbricht stash plus 385k from this new drug dealer?

This. The amount of seized BTC that has  to be auctioned and dumped on the market is so high... At least 400K (GOX+Silk+others), if not more, probably sold well under $250 for each coin, ready to be dumped on the market at any point. Truth is, even a relatively small 20K dump could totally crash BTC's value to $50/coin.

I could literally wake up one day and see BTC's value drop 50%. This will kill BTC's  long term value, seriously scary stuff

In recent postings, you have become quite intense in your FUD spreading.    

Your above post is filled with many unfounded assumptions.   Coins would have to be sold for much below market rate before there would be an incentive to dump.  I do NOT see whey the GOVT would sell BTC below market rate unless there is some kind of collusion.. .for example selling to some big bank that wants to bring down the BTC market.
I don't think that the government cares about or believes in a 'market rate' of bitcoin. The market is a manipulated game that we traders play against eachother and has meaning only to us. It is a very fragile illusion caused by hoarding and could not possibly withstand any signiifcant amount of selling. It would take a year to distribute all the those coins at market rate and doing so might cause a collapse and we're not even sure bitcoin will survive till then without some kind of technical glitch. The government is not a big bitcoin bull like you. The government does not want to speculate. What the government wants is cash, in their pocket, now. So if they can manage to sell all the coins and get a substantial amount of cash via large block trades under market rates offline, then they will do so and that would be great for them - a big success. They want a certainty, and a closed deal. I believe this is how the government operates will all kinds of seized assets, selling them at auctions for ridiculously low prices.

I agree that government officials don't care about the price of bitcoin. However, as those forfeited bitcoins are public assets, it is their DUTY to sell them at the highest price as possible, or at least a "fair price" at the time of sale. Otherwise, a corrupt official could easily indirectly sell the bitcoins to himself at $1 each.

Also, I don't see why auctions must lead to a ridiculously low price. A public, open auction should lead to a fair price.
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April 29, 2014, 06:29:55 AM

Anyone read that Gox is being saved? or am I being trolled

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mt-gox-stakeholders-to-try-reviving-exchange-2014-04-29#
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April 29, 2014, 06:33:43 AM


It's irrelevant to the pump, that's for sure
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April 29, 2014, 06:39:02 AM


It's irrelevant to the pump, that's for sure
I see 'lawyers and creditors have reached an agreement' - Are these really the people who had authority over the matter?
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April 29, 2014, 06:39:22 AM

Huobi is certainly on a little rip.  Any idea why?


Stamp too

Anyone all in fiat? Might get expensive..

It might, but $450 isn't any higher than we were 24 HRs ago. If you can trade these swings, more power to you. It looks like a big circle jerk to me.
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April 29, 2014, 06:42:47 AM

Goxcoin on the pump?
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April 29, 2014, 06:44:46 AM

Goxcoin on the pump?
If only builder was still open, imagine the trading opportunities.
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April 29, 2014, 06:46:16 AM


It's irrelevant to the pump, that's for sure
I see 'lawyers and creditors have reached an agreement' - Are these really the people who had authority over the matter?

We do not need Gox back from the dead. We do not need China back from the dead. Amateur hour is supposed to be over. Zombie exchanges have the same effect on the bitcoin economy as zombie banks have in the fiat economy. Damoclesian swords over our heads.
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April 29, 2014, 06:57:29 AM

Aren't people fed up with zombie movies yet?  Tongue

EDIT: @billyjoeallen beat me by a nose....
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April 29, 2014, 07:00:55 AM


Explanation
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April 29, 2014, 07:07:35 AM

Wasn't the fate of mtgox being overseen by a judge now? When I see that a judge made a ruling, then I'll pay attention.
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April 29, 2014, 07:09:43 AM

http://imgur.com/9iJ660w

 Smiley Smiley Smiley
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April 29, 2014, 07:15:55 AM

Wasn't the fate of mtgox being overseen by a judge now? When I see that a judge made a ruling, then I'll pay attention.

At a separate hearing before the judge Thursday, they are expected to present their case for that agreement, which in addition to the equity stake includes prorated disbursements out of Tokyo-based Mt. Gox's holdings of 200,000 bitcoins and traditional currency. The terms would apply to all creditors worldwide, though it was signed on behalf of U.S. and Canadian members of the proposed class actions. If the U.S. court approves the plan, the investor group, Sunlot Holdings, would then seek approval of the Japanese court overseeing the bankruptcy.

new fud date besides the China bs, seems farm from concrete. I guess will see if they bring this to the Japanese court.
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