Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 30Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-30, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2720 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 439 USD
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ic.unicamp.br%2F%7Estolfi%2Ftemp%2F2014-04-29-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png&t=665&c=U1tkuCW1gIdV1A)
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ic.unicamp.br%2F%7Estolfi%2Ftemp%2F2014-04-29-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png&t=665&c=IbCmF77KNa8ntw)
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Today's data point, like yesterday's, was fairly good (S = 0.0035, W = 0.778), and not very far from the previously assumed trend line. Again two choices for the trend seemed reasonable, the straight line determined by the last two points only, or a straight trend fitted by weighted least squares to the last five points (which would ignore yesterday's given its low weight). I chose the latter, but multiplied the Slumber Weight W by a "remoteness" weight WF = K**(DF-d) where K = 0.8 and (DF-d) is the number of days before the last data point (Apr/29). The fitted line was A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/25, A = 2813.92 and B = -18.83.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.20 CNY/USD. It was 6.25 at today's Slumber time, and 6.05, 6.09, and 6.05 for the Slumber Times at Apr/28, Apr/26, and Apr/25.
Checking the previous predictionPrediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-29, 02:44 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-29, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)
The prediction for Huobi was rather off:
Huobi's predicted price: 2684 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2761 CNY
Error: 77 CNY (~12 USD)
The prediction for Bitstamp was almost exact, but only because the R factor changed:
Bitstamp's predicted price: 443 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 442 USD
Error: 1 USD NOTE: "Man differs from the animal only by a little; most men throw that little away."
-- Confucius