Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[solex]

OMFG I MUST HAVE A BITMAC 

when was this? this is the best news Ive seen for months!

macdonalds has the publicity to make bitcoin a common word, and as a bunch of crooked corporates they have vision to monopolise, increasing the value heaps. imagine if macdonalds would offer discount for paying with bitcoin  everyone would try it out for fun!

its probably a prank.

Yeah. It's a TA "tight ass" formation photoshopped onto a burger sign.

[Chalkbot]

when was this? this is the best news Ive seen for months!

macdonalds has the publicity to make bitcoin a common word, and as a bunch of crooked corporates they have vision to monopolise, increasing the value heaps. imagine if macdonalds would offer discount for paying with bitcoin  everyone would try it out for fun!

You should be more skeptical of things like this.

[chessnut]

when was this? this is the best news Ive seen for months!

macdonalds has the publicity to make bitcoin a common word, and as a bunch of crooked corporates they have vision to monopolise, increasing the value heaps. imagine if macdonalds would offer discount for paying with bitcoin  everyone would try it out for fun!

You should be more skeptical of things like this.

the idea was nice, but obviously it was not a legit photo by any means. although it comes from a VERY reliable source (Adam)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

OMFG I MUST HAVE A BITMAC 

when was this? this is the best news Ive seen for months!

macdonalds has the publicity to make bitcoin a common word, and as a bunch of crooked corporates they have vision to monopolise, increasing the value heaps. imagine if macdonalds would offer discount for paying with bitcoin  everyone would try it out for fun!

Yes!!!  I wonder whether such bitcoin payment promotion goes beyond one franchise's offerings and promotions?

[Richy_T]

Explanation

It is getting closer to 420...

I must be prepared .. xD

What do you think community? Will we watch a drop to $420?

Seen that wall that is up now?

Finally a real wall again, shame it's gone again. Although it will probably pop up again.

You can say that again, again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[KFR]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzdxeBTm6gk

[aminorex]

You should be more skeptical of things like this.

Which one is more readily creditable, that genius badger or the franchise sign?  This planet is whack.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

something is happening, this market buy/sell volumes are not normal

Price instability is the sign of a trend change.

Why is everyone being so cryptic? Either this is a lame attempt by some bulls on here to act like something is changing when its not or perhaps someone should point to some more evidence that something has changed in the last 2 days?

All I have seen is decreasing sell volume and a small dump on news that was swallowed up yesterday leading to a green candle with a little more volume beneath it.

But, even with all that, the "recovery" right now is weak at best.

It looks like either we get a little more upside then consolidation or consolidation starting today. And consolidation recently has simply meant "waiting for the next piece of news so we can dump."

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 30

Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-30, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2720 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 439 USD





[ Plot legend ]

Today's data point, like yesterday's, was fairly good (S = 0.0035, W = 0.778), and not very far from the previously assumed trend line.  Again two choices for the trend seemed reasonable, the straight line determined by the last two points only, or a straight trend fitted by weighted least squares to the last five points (which would ignore yesterday's given its low weight).  I chose the latter, but multiplied the Slumber Weight W by a "remoteness" weight WF = K**(DF-d) where K = 0.8 and (DF-d) is the number of days before the last data point (Apr/29).  The fitted line was A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/25, A = 2813.92 and B = -18.83.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.20 CNY/USD. It was 6.25 at today's Slumber time, and 6.05, 6.09, and 6.05 for the Slumber Times at Apr/28, Apr/26, and Apr/25.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-29, 02:44 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-29, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

The prediction for Huobi was rather off:

Huobi's predicted price: 2684 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2761 CNY
Error: 77 CNY (~12 USD)

The prediction for Bitstamp was almost exact, but only because the R factor changed:

Bitstamp's predicted price: 443 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 442 USD
Error: 1 USD
 
NOTE: "Man differs from the animal only by a little; most men throw that little away."
    -- Confucius

[cAPSLOCK]

Isn't it ironic that the libertarian bitcoiners, champions of laissez-faire capitalism, are betting all their life savings on the hope that the Satoshi Bitcoin will be one day the only cryptocurrency in the market, so that they can charge monopoly prices for it? 

I see no irony there.  I am not sure you understand the core values of libertairianism in light of this comment.  Libertarians tend to defend what others call monopolies.  They would stand, in my opinion, for the idea the free market will deal creatively with bitcoin concentrations.  And libertarians are absolutely NOT against making money from opportunity.

[JorgeStolfi]

Isn't it ironic that the libertarian bitcoiners, champions of laissez-faire capitalism, are betting all their life savings on the hope that the Satoshi Bitcoin will be one day the only cryptocurrency in the market, so that they can charge monopoly prices for it? 

I see no irony there.  I am not sure you understand the core values of libertairianism in light of this comment.  Libertarians tend to defend what others call monopolies.

Perhaps I don't.

A monopoly is the opposite of free market by definition, so how can one be in favor of the latter without being against the former?

If libertarians do not object to monopolies, why do they object to government, which has by defintion the monopoly in many fields (army, criminal punishment, money issuance, etc.)?

[nanobrain]

OMFG I MUST HAVE A BITMAC  

when was this? this is the best news Ive seen for months!

macdonalds has the publicity to make bitcoin a common word, and as a bunch of crooked corporates they have vision to monopolise, increasing the value heaps. imagine if macdonalds would offer discount for paying with bitcoin   everyone would try it out for fun!

Yes!!!  I wonder whether such bitcoin payment promotion goes beyond one franchise's offerings and promotions?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[thezerg]

Isn't it ironic that the libertarian bitcoiners, champions of laissez-faire capitalism, are betting all their life savings on the hope that the Satoshi Bitcoin will be one day the only cryptocurrency in the market, so that they can charge monopoly prices for it? 

I see no irony there.  I am not sure you understand the core values of libertairianism in light of this comment.  Libertarians tend to defend what others call monopolies.

Perhaps I don't.

A monopoly is the opposite of free market by definition, so how can one be in favor of the latter without being against the former?

If libertarians do not object to monopolies, why do they object to government, which has by defintion the monopoly in many fields (army, criminal punishment, money issuance, etc.)?

I suppose libertarians might tolerate monopolies by competence not monopolies by fiat or force.  Monopoly is a very tricky subject...

[TeeBone]

Why is this not going below 400 or worse ? Here we are sitting like a rock at 440, which was unthinkable back in january.

Is there any genuine short-term bull case, besides rockets and slogans ?

I'm a tired bear, been at it for 5 months now, and tbh im worn out. I want to close my shorts, but i've gotta play the market. I see no reason to buy before May 10, and/or whatever deadline comes after that.

I'll be needing some Bull rehab after this is done.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[solex]

Why is this not going below 400 or worse ? Here we are sitting like a rock at 440, which was unthinkable back in january.

Is there any genuine short-term bull case, besides rockets and slogans ?

I'm a tired bear, been at it for 5 months now, and tbh im worn out. I want to close my shorts, but i've gotta play the market. I see no reason to buy before May 10, and/or whatever deadline comes after that.

I'll be needing some Bull rehab after this is done. 

The longest bear market was June-November 2011, some 163 days. The current downtrend is 151 days assuming it is still intact and did not bottom out at $339 which would be 132 days. So maybe the trend is as worn out as everyone watching it. Won't be obvious until a decisive breakout is seen which is a return to the $550-$600 area.