Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

ITT some in here underestimate the (call it "psychological", if you want) effect a ~6 month bear market has on the following consolidation-slash-bull market, at least initially.

Remember how, after every ATH rally the bears need some time before they really get their way? It's the same now, only in reverse (and the amplitudes are slightly different due to the even larger trends governing the smaller segments).

If you are referring to the psychological effect a prolonged bear market has on the populous, I agree with you.  By this point, all trust that these mini rallies are real (i.e., not manufactured by whale traders) have been beaten out of most all but the diehard bulls.  That's why recovery back into a true bull market takes so long.  Most average Joes are now believing that the whales are just buying and trying to lure the sheep back in, only to spread mass FUD and drop the price at a later point.  Again. Only to sell back to themselves once more.  No appearance of true increasing adoption appears real to anyone right now.

[oda.krell]

A curiosity question for those who believe in TA (which I still don't, sorry): are its rules symmetrical with respect to up and down? Namely, if a certain pattern is supposed to impliy This and That, is the same pattern, but upside down, supposed to imply the opposite of This and That?

(I am asking because I recently edited the Wikipedia article on 'cup and handle' (wait, no need to panic yet  !), and it only discusses the 'upside-up' version, no mention of an 'upside-down' one.  But wasn't a reversed cup and handle mentioned in this thread, some time ago? Or maybe it was some other upside-down pattern?)

I'd never call TA 'rules', but let's say the question is: do all methods apply equally to rising prices as they do to falling.

No, though some do.

Example of those that do apply symmetrically: moving resistances (say, based on a moving average) are considered support once they are broken convincingly.

Example of those that don't: Most indicators meant to signal a reversal of some trend inside larger market trend don't.  Say for example the larger market trend is a bear market, like the one we've seen since December (and that we seem to have left last month). Say further that you are planning to trade smaller "swings" inside this larger context. If you would trade purely reactive, based on momentum signals like moving averages crossovers, you would probably demand a lot more evidence that the price about to go up than that it is about to go down. In other words, you'd look at a more sensitive indicator to tell you when to sell, and a more lagging one to tell you to get back in.

EDIT: if you mainly have candle patterns in mind, then I think most of those apply symmetrically (e.g. hammer vs. inverted hammer). But perhaps someone who's more knowledgeable about those can comment on that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BBmodBB]

A curiosity question for those who believe in TA (which I still don't, sorry): are its rules symmetrical with respect to up and down? Namely, if a certain pattern is supposed to impliy This and That, is the same pattern, but upside down, supposed to imply the opposite of This and That?

(I am asking because I recently edited the Wikipedia article on 'cup and handle' (wait, no need to panic yet  !), and it only discusses the 'upside-up' version, no mention of an 'upside-down' one.  But wasn't a reversed cup and handle mentioned in this thread, some time ago? Or maybe it was some other upside-down pattern?)

TA is not binary, also charting should always be reenforced by other real-time data : level 2 quotes etc...! ;-)

[rebuilder]

A curiosity question for those who believe in TA (which I still don't, sorry): are its rules symmetrical with respect to up and down? Namely, if a certain pattern is supposed to impliy This and That, is the same pattern, but upside down, supposed to imply the opposite of This and That?

(I am asking because I recently edited the Wikipedia article on 'cup and handle' (wait, no need to panic yet  !), and it only discusses the 'upside-up' version, no mention of an 'upside-down' one.  But wasn't a reversed cup and handle mentioned in this thread, some time ago? Or maybe it was some other upside-down pattern?)

I'd never call TA 'rules', but let's say the question is: do all methods apply equally to rising prices as they do to falling.

No, though some do.

Example of those that do apply symmetrically: moving resistances (say, based on a moving average) are considered support once they are broken convincingly.

Example of those that don't: Most indicators meant to signal a reversal of some trend inside larger market trend don't.  Say for example the larger market trend is a bear market, like the one we've seen since December (and that we seem to have left last month). Say further that you are planning to trade smaller "swings" inside this larger context. If you would trade purely reactive, based on momentum signals like moving averages crossovers, you would probably demand a lot more evidence that the price about to go up than that it is about to go down. In other words, you'd look at a more sensitive indicator to tell you when to sell, and a more lagging one to tell you to get back in.

EDIT: if you mainly have candle patterns in mind, then I think most of those apply symmetrically (e.g. hammer vs. inverted hammer). But perhaps someone who's more knowledgeable about those can comment on that.

Oda.krell, you seem like someone who might know - how much rigorous statistical evidence is there for different TA methods? Do you think the idea TA can provide an edge can be realistically tested?

[bigdave]

Since the news about Tony Gwynn passing away is now breaking I'm expecting a price drop.

[bananaControl]

Since the news about Tony Gwynn passing away is now breaking I'm expecting a price drop.

Are we supposed to know who that is? Never heard of him in all my years of bitcoin time.

[bigdave]

Since the news about Tony Gwynn passing away is now breaking I'm expecting a price drop.

Are we supposed to know who that is?

I'm guessing you don't live in the US.

[gentlemand]

I love Tony. I don't know who he is either.

[bananaControl]

Since the news about Tony Gwynn passing away is now breaking I'm expecting a price drop.

Are we supposed to know who that is?

I'm guessing you don't live in the US.

So I take it that he has absolutely nothing to do with anything bitcoin related? So why should that have any more effect on the price than lets say the death of king Carl Gustaf ?

[oda.krell]

A curiosity question for those who believe in TA (which I still don't, sorry): are its rules symmetrical with respect to up and down? Namely, if a certain pattern is supposed to impliy This and That, is the same pattern, but upside down, supposed to imply the opposite of This and That?

(I am asking because I recently edited the Wikipedia article on 'cup and handle' (wait, no need to panic yet  !), and it only discusses the 'upside-up' version, no mention of an 'upside-down' one.  But wasn't a reversed cup and handle mentioned in this thread, some time ago? Or maybe it was some other upside-down pattern?)

I'd never call TA 'rules', but let's say the question is: do all methods apply equally to rising prices as they do to falling.

No, though some do.

Example of those that do apply symmetrically: moving resistances (say, based on a moving average) are considered support once they are broken convincingly.

Example of those that don't: Most indicators meant to signal a reversal of some trend inside larger market trend don't.  Say for example the larger market trend is a bear market, like the one we've seen since December (and that we seem to have left last month). Say further that you are planning to trade smaller "swings" inside this larger context. If you would trade purely reactive, based on momentum signals like moving averages crossovers, you would probably demand a lot more evidence that the price about to go up than that it is about to go down. In other words, you'd look at a more sensitive indicator to tell you when to sell, and a more lagging one to tell you to get back in.

EDIT: if you mainly have candle patterns in mind, then I think most of those apply symmetrically (e.g. hammer vs. inverted hammer). But perhaps someone who's more knowledgeable about those can comment on that.

Oda.krell, you seem like someone who might know - how much rigorous statistical evidence is there for different TA methods? Do you think the idea TA can provide an edge can be realistically tested?

I'm not an economist, so I only have an "interested outsider's" view on the literature. I have discussed exactly this question with economists though, and received conflicting information.

There seems to be a few respectable articles these days (as in: they appeared in a journal that is respected in the field ), but I get the impression that there's a bit of a divide to begin with: those articles are written by people that assume that TA/market forecasting/systematic trading works, and they analyze particular methods.

Then there's the vast group of economists that subscribe to EMH in varying degrees of strength, and those would seem to be prime candidates for a more rigorous testing of TA/forecasting etc. and whether it produces statistically relevant results, but I'm not aware of a broad, rigorous study like that.

I'm personally not too bothered by that: I have previously made the analogy with chess opening theory or Go strategies -- they pretty clearly work, but are not (yet) formalized to the degree where they could be subjected to a test that holds up to academic standards.

That said, if someone else does know about a (peer reviewed even?) study on the efficacy of TA, I'd be interested.

EDIT: I'm a lazy bastard. I just didn't look very well. How about this one? Looks pretty good to me as a broad overview:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=603481

[bigdave]

Since the news about Tony Gwynn passing away is now breaking I'm expecting a price drop.

Are we supposed to know who that is?

I'm guessing you don't live in the US.

So I take it that he has absolutely nothing to do with anything bitcoin related? So why should that have any more effect on the price than lets say the death of king Carl Gustaf ?

Wow, calm down dude. It was meant as a joke. Here ya go...

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/16/sport/gwynn-baseball-death/index.html

[bananaControl]

Since the news about Tony Gwynn passing away is now breaking I'm expecting a price drop.

Are we supposed to know who that is?

I'm guessing you don't live in the US.

So I take it that he has absolutely nothing to do with anything bitcoin related? So why should that have any more effect on the price than lets say the death of king Carl Gustaf ?

Wow, calm down dude. It was meant as a joke. Here ya go...

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/16/sport/gwynn-baseball-death/index.html

Haha, one just never knows on this forum 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Bagatell]

That said, if someone else does know about a (peer reviewed even?) study on the efficacy of TA, I'd be interested.

EDIT: I'm a lazy bastard. I just didn't look very well. How about this one? Looks pretty good to me as a broad overview:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=603481

TL;DR

Among a total of 92 modern studies, 58 studies found positive results regarding technical trading strategies, while 24 studies obtained negative results. Ten studies indicated mixed results. Despite the positive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies, it appears that most empirical studies are subject to various problems in their testing procedures, e.g., data snooping, ex post selection of trading rules or search technologies, and difficulties in estimation of risk and transaction costs. Future research must address these deficiencies in testing in order to provide conclusive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies.

[oda.krell]

That said, if someone else does know about a (peer reviewed even?) study on the efficacy of TA, I'd be interested.

EDIT: I'm a lazy bastard. I just didn't look very well. How about this one? Looks pretty good to me as a broad overview:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=603481

TL;DR

Among a total of 92 modern studies, 58 studies found positive results regarding technical trading strategies, while 24 studies obtained negative results. Ten studies indicated mixed results. Despite the positive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies, it appears that most empirical studies are subject to various problems in their testing procedures, e.g., data snooping, ex post selection of trading rules or search technologies, and difficulties in estimation of risk and transaction costs. Future research must address these deficiencies in testing in order to provide conclusive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies.

Did I mention I'm lazy?

[JayJuanGee]

Objectively, what are our chances of going lower?  I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year.  Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?

DO NOT take any advice from anybody here! Don't ever ask other people here what to do with your money! I know you see all these lines and charts and mainly bears who act like they know it all but i can guarantee you that not a single person here knows where Bitcoin will go. Every bear here will tell you we will see 100% sure 500 again. That's because they're sad little creatures who do nothing but lie and manipulate because they want the price to go down.
The bulls obviously want the price to go up but will be a bit more modest and say we'll likely won't see 500 again. Either way any info you'll get is coloured and worthless.
The fact that you want to invest in Bitcoin means you believe it will be worth more in the future. If you do then you should buy. 500 or 560 is meaningless in the long run if this thing takes off. If you don't think it will take off then don't. Waiting is kinda pointless because again nobody knows what it will do.

now that is what sound advice looks like.

+1 Can't be said often enough.

How to profit from Bitcoin:

1) Buy Bitcoins
2) Hold them for two years
3) Note how much you've gained in real terms over the last two years, and be honest about how much less you'd have had you daytraded
4) Keep hodling

And begin to skim profits... (if you have NOT already been doing so)... b/c the price has gone up at least 4 times your initial investment

[JayJuanGee]

Objectively, what are our chances of going lower?  I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year.  Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?

DO NOT take any advice from anybody here! Don't ever ask other people here what to do with your money! I know you see all these lines and charts and mainly bears who act like they know it all but i can guarantee you that not a single person here knows where Bitcoin will go. Every bear here will tell you we 100% sure will see 500 again. That's because they're sad little creatures who do nothing but lie and manipulate because they want the price to go down.
The bulls obviously want the price to go up but will be a bit more modest and say we likely won't see 500 again. Either way any info you'll get is coloured and worthless.
The fact that you want to invest in Bitcoin means you believe it will be worth more in the future. If you do then you should buy. 500 or 560 is meaningless in the long run if this thing takes off. If you don't think it will take off then don't. Waiting is kinda pointless because again nobody knows what it will do.

Yes, don't listen to that advice...

Listen to all advice given here, it's is 100% factual and we can all predict the future!

NOT.... hehehehehehe!     

[JorgeStolfi]

Thanks for the answers about reverse patterns!  (Is there such a thing as a reversed cup and handle, specifically?)

By the way, after a long disappearance, Mark Karpelès just tweeted about weather & quake in Japan: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.msg7344311#msg7344311   Could that be the fundamental that caused the price to retreat?  

[Globb0]

Maybe on his new island