Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Teppino]

Fear not, Openbazaar is alive and kicking.
As i strongly believe price is correlated to number of transactions (which is different from plain adoption/number of wallets) i think in the near future (months) we will be able to see metcalfe's law applied to bitcoin in his newly born habitat.

Actually bitcoins are mostly held or traded intra exchange, neither of those is good for the health of the network, it's like a brain without neurotransmitters--->no thoughts-->mostly useless and easily manipulated.

Let it grow, it will kick ass  

[JayJuanGee]

This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.

I think we are losing adoption NOW.  User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment.  I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore.  This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)

Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero.  As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day.  If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days.  The game is too easy.  

Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded.  If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem.  And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.

I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500.  Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again.  How many of the big guys had to help to break through?  I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.

Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble.  It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book.  IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk.  They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .

I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users.  I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull.  I am full bear now.  I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon.  The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices.  Believe them.

I think everybody is just counting on Wall Street attempting to pump this puppy one more time, which they have the power to do, so they really might convince people that for some reason this time is different... and then wham!!! They'll take everyone who is still left over's lunch money. The question is whether this is the last pop before the lunch money gets stolen, not whether lunch money will be stolen.

You seem to be fairly pessimistic in this comment, Newbie.  You are suggesting that regular people may be able to profit from one more bubble, possibly (NOT for certain), but sooner or later we are all gonna get screwed by the involvement of wallstreet in this bitcoin thingy-ma-jiggy.

In my thinking you are exaggerating too greatly, and so long as some of us "early adopters" do NOT blink and we continue to accumulate BTC (just like wallstreet investors are doing - we are just doing it on a smaller scale), there are considerable possibilities that a lot of us HODLers are gonna profit greatly in the short-term pump and then probably there is going to be continued growth in the BTC space.

For example, nobody on wallstreet or even in the government or in big business gives a fuck if a few people (even hundreds of thousands) become extremely well off b/c of  their "stick-with-it-ness."  Let's say in the mid-1980, someone had invested in microsoft, when it was pennies, and they bought a few thousand dollars in shares.  NO one would give a fuck if they cashed out in 1999 with 5,000x profits.  Sure uncle sam is gonna want to take his cut from the gains, but that would NOT be as big of a problem as NOT having the gains.

In other words, paying tax on 5,000x gains would NOT be a bad problem to have.

[oda.krell]

Always wondered why hodlers hang out in speculation.. makes no sense. What do they care, they will never participate in price discovery.

Truly remarkable question! Why would one who owns Apple or Microsoft stocks for 20 years would hang out in a speculation forum of WallSt. regulars... Makes no sense! What do they care, they will never participate in price discovery.


It's been fun meeting you esse83. Time to get some sleep though... not that there would be any difference from being awake with my IQ rating...

Because the wealth increase of Bitcoin thus far makes it at least possible for the investment to be life changing in the short term. People like to keep an eye on that, even if they themselves don't trade.

(mini necro, because it's a topic I've been wondering about myself)

(also, more or less just piggybacking on your post, not addressing you directly in the following rant...)

I don't mind (and understand) "holders" frequenting the speculation forum. I don't mind (and understand) them posting. I get why they're rallying together in a downtrend - it's a nightmare of its own to see your account value (as measured in USD) melt away day by day.

I do mind however the sometimes rather aggressive "anti trading" sentiment in here.

Where. On. Fuckin. Earth? should trading / price discovery / speculation be discussed if not on the Speculation subforum?

Don't trade, but hold on to those coins - absolutely fine by me. But if you constantly feel the need to tell traders who post here that they are in reality "tarders", and need to stop their idiotic ways, then you're no better than trolls like fallling and their ilk.

/rant

[Schickeria]

I guessed as much, that this would happen - overexcited optimism switching to deep disappointment.

But that escalated quickly.  

[JayJuanGee]

This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.

I think we are losing adoption NOW.  User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment.  I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore.  This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)

Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero.  As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day.  If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days.  The game is too easy.  

Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded.  If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem.  And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.

I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500.  Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again.  How many of the big guys had to help to break through?  I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.

Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble.  It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book.  IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk.  They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .

I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users.  I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull.  I am full bear now.  I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon.  The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices.  Believe them.

One step nearer to getting out of bear market. If only there are more posts like this.

I kind of wonder:  Are these posts for real, or are they just faking it... ?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.

I think we are losing adoption NOW.  User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment.  I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore.  This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)

Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero.  As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day.  If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days.  The game is too easy.  

Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded.  If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem.  And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.

I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500.  Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again.  How many of the big guys had to help to break through?  I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.

Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble.  It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book.  IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk.  They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .

I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users.  I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull.  I am full bear now.  I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon.  The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices.  Believe them.

It is debatable whether a rise/fall in the number of speculators indicates a rise/fall in the level of adoption.

they take bitcoin to sell them immediately...doesn't look like real adoption to me...it's also very easy to stop adopting bitcoin...and if no one is using it they will stop it...
just look at the decline in fiat numbers...there will be no newbies if it goes down for much longer...no one buys digital money if it seems to be worthless in a few months...
one of the biggest arguments for a rise in newbies always was that bitcoin is deflationary...but this doesn't look very deflationary to me..600$ from a couple of weeks are only 475$ now...
the same situation in real life should turn people to use bitcoin...right now it makes more sense to buy argentinian pesos

Yeah... good luck with your Argentine Peso.... and good bye...   Adios!!!!!!   

[Newbie1022]

This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.

I think we are losing adoption NOW.  User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment.  I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore.  This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)

Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero.  As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day.  If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days.  The game is too easy.  

Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded.  If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem.  And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.

I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500.  Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again.  How many of the big guys had to help to break through?  I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.

Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble.  It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book.  IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk.  They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .

I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users.  I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull.  I am full bear now.  I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon.  The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices.  Believe them.

I think everybody is just counting on Wall Street attempting to pump this puppy one more time, which they have the power to do, so they really might convince people that for some reason this time is different... and then wham!!! They'll take everyone who is still left over's lunch money. The question is whether this is the last pop before the lunch money gets stolen, not whether lunch money will be stolen.

You seem to be fairly pessimistic in this comment, Newbie.  You are suggesting that regular people may be able to profit from one more bubble, possibly (NOT for certain), but sooner or later we are all gonna get screwed by the involvement of wallstreet in this bitcoin thingy-ma-jiggy.

In my thinking you are exaggerating too greatly, and so long as some of us "early adopters" do NOT blink and we continue to accumulate BTC (just like wallstreet investors are doing - we are just doing it on a smaller scale), there are considerable possibilities that a lot of us HODLers are gonna profit greatly in the short-term pump and then probably there is going to be continued growth in the BTC space.

For example, nobody on wallstreet or even in the government or in big business gives a fuck if a few people (even hundreds of thousands) become extremely well off b/c of  their "stick-with-it-ness."  Let's say in the mid-1980, someone had invested in microsoft, when it was pennies, and they bought a few thousand dollars in shares.  NO one would give a fuck if they cashed out in 1999 with 5,000x profits.  Sure uncle sam is gonna want to take his cut from the gains, but that would NOT be as big of a problem as NOT having the gains.

In other words, paying tax on 5,000x gains would NOT be a bad problem to have.

Anybody simply holding is 50/50 likely to be fine.
Anybody on margin is f---ed. The Junta calls the prices... they have too many chips.
We are likely to start to see Martingale style behavior amongst those shorting like we saw on the longs... this will exacerbate the situation.
If you are trading, then you are just screwed and I have no problem saying that. If you are holding then it is a different game.

BUT, there are many broader issues as well... brand damage due to the manipulation, the availability of alternatives (the Apple IMoney is lame, but it will eat in heavily to the Newbie market), and the lameness of the offers by the large retailers.

Caveat to the Caveat... OpenBazaar may save us. We really could use a black market.

Don't attack everybody who is pessimistic on a personal level, bro. The market has spun up and down (mostly down), a lot of people have gotten whipsawed, and many of them are irritated by it. Let people vent.

Also, 5,000x gains... No. Just not happening. Maybe if the starting point is $1.

[grappa_barricata]

Seems like china is ready for round 2.

[Newbie1022]

Always wondered why hodlers hang out in speculation.. makes no sense. What do they care, they will never participate in price discovery.

Truly remarkable question! Why would one who owns Apple or Microsoft stocks for 20 years would hang out in a speculation forum of WallSt. regulars... Makes no sense! What do they care, they will never participate in price discovery.


It's been fun meeting you esse83. Time to get some sleep though... not that there would be any difference from being awake with my IQ rating...

Because the wealth increase of Bitcoin thus far makes it at least possible for the investment to be life changing in the short term. People like to keep an eye on that, even if they themselves don't trade.

(mini necro, because it's a topic I've been wondering about myself)

(also, more or less just piggybacking on your post, not addressing you directly in the following rant...)

I don't mind (and understand) "holders" frequenting the speculation forum. I don't mind (and understand) them posting. I get why they're rallying together in a downtrend - it's a nightmare of its own to see your account value (as measured in USD) melt away day by day.

I do mind however the sometimes rather aggressive "anti trading" sentiment in here.

Where. On. Fuckin. Earth? should trading / price discovery / speculation be discussed if not on the Speculation subforum?

Don't trade, but hold on to those coins - absolutely fine by me. But if you constantly feel the need to tell traders who post here that they are in reality "tarders", and need to stop their idiotic ways, then you're no better than trolls like fallling and their ilk.

/rant

This. It makes no sense why people are getting attacked when they are trying to collect thoughts from others so that they can hold some money... sometimes those thoughts are positive and sometimes they are negative. It isn't like they are claiming that the U.N. Security Council has agreed to wage a defense mission against Bitcoin. For f---s sakes.

[spooderman]

Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day

[600watt]

This market is completely fucked. Right now we are simply watching it getting it destroyed. Bitcoin is becoming worthless.
Nobody around me talks about it anymore let alone considers investing in it.

What sane person would put money in a market where he is guaranteed to get dumped on the next day?
The dumpers are destroying the market. It's that simple.
They will keep doing it till we can't go lower anymore. Only then are they happy and will move on.  

exactly. it is really weird that the usmarshall service had a better understanding of timing an auction than most (?) of us in this forum. different to the "the auction will bring prices down to 250" screamers, a good part of the speculation subforum was bullish, even short term.  now, that prices went down anyway will make every possible investor careful to just wait a little bit longer to see if it goes down even more. no one wants to pull another draper stunt.

i guess we just have to wait for the final final final capitulation. i am really tired of this. 2014 rally... damned...

[Newbie1022]

Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day

Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.

[Davyd05]

Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day

Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.

after that buy on bitfinex, I remain more or less positive that the large holders are milking people out.. and that leaves great buying opportunities for large money...look for no slippage...and I don't mean etf's gabi etc.. just people who buy on exchange with the extra fiat they feel is worth risking for this revolutionary idea.

[Newbie1022]

Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day

Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.

after that buy on bitfinex, I remain more or less positive that the large holders are milking people out.. and that leaves great buying opportunities for large money...look for no slippage...and I don't mean etf's gabi etc.. just people who buy on exchange with the extra fiat they feel is worth risking for this revolutionary idea.

I was thinking that for a while, as well... but look at the 4-hour chart. It be scary.

[falllling]

Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day

Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.

after that buy on bitfinex, I remain more or less positive that the large holders are milking people out.. and that leaves great buying opportunities for large money...look for no slippage...and I don't mean etf's gabi etc.. just people who buy on exchange with the extra fiat they feel is worth risking for this revolutionary idea.

I was thinking that for a while, as well... but look at the 4-hour chart. It be scary.

more crash incoming

[Newbie1022]

Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day

Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.

after that buy on bitfinex, I remain more or less positive that the large holders are milking people out.. and that leaves great buying opportunities for large money...look for no slippage...and I don't mean etf's gabi etc.. just people who buy on exchange with the extra fiat they feel is worth risking for this revolutionary idea.

I was thinking that for a while, as well... but look at the 4-hour chart. It be scary.

more crash incoming

50-50... only the Junta knows. We either clear 480 and 2950 convincingly... or we careen back down. I should just flip a coin.

[Davyd05]

Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day

Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.

after that buy on bitfinex, I remain more or less positive that the large holders are milking people out.. and that leaves great buying opportunities for large money...look for no slippage...and I don't mean etf's gabi etc.. just people who buy on exchange with the extra fiat they feel is worth risking for this revolutionary idea.

I was thinking that for a while, as well... but look at the 4-hour chart. It be scary.

essentially that is the point.. they succeed when people panic sell purely because they're trying to speculate and have no clue what they're doing. China's ban fest really started the selling signals way back in Dec. bulls are still feeling bearish after that rape fest.. believing our pure optimism could out weigh Chinese panic lol...however plan and weigh the chances of as many probabilities as you can.

[oda.krell]

This market is completely fucked. Right now we are simply watching it getting it destroyed. Bitcoin is becoming worthless.
Nobody around me talks about it anymore let alone considers investing in it.

What sane person would put money in a market where he is guaranteed to get dumped on the next day?
The dumpers are destroying the market. It's that simple.
They will keep doing it till we can't go lower anymore. Only then are they happy and will move on.  

exactly. it is really weird that the usmarshall service had a better understanding of timing an auction than most (?) of us in this forum. different to the "the auction will bring prices down to 250" screamers, a good part of the speculation subforum was bullish, even short term.  now, that prices went down anyway will make every possible investor careful to just wait a little bit longer to see if it goes down even more. no one wants to pull another draper stunt.

i guess we just have to wait for the final final final capitulation. i am really tired of this. 2014 rally... damned...

I kind of suspect it'll take even a bit longer before that sentiment really sinks in.

I remember, late last year in masterluc's thread, I was arguing that the next ATH couldn't reasonably be further away than a year. Because: history.

Took me a while to get that idea out of my head for good - which, by the way, doesn't mean I think Bitcoin is doomed. Just that naive extrapolations like "we had a growth spurt every X months, so the next one must be right around the corner" are dangerous to your mental health (and profits, if you trade).

Here's another thought: we keep referring back to 2011/2012 as the "bad years" for price. The argument is usually made that, no way we're going through such a period of (relative) drought again because this time: investments! public interest! everything is different!

Which is true, of course. But that's the reason why price is around $500 now, and not $5.

So I see a chance at least that we will look back on 2014, maybe even 2015, and think of those years as the "really bad years" in the future, not 2011/2012.

(note please, I said: "I see a chance", not "I'm sure that's what's going to happen.)

[Schickeria]

I do mind however the sometimes rather aggressive "anti trading" sentiment in here.

Where. On. Fuckin. Earth? should trading / price discovery / speculation be discussed if not on the Speculation subforum?

That's nothing different from other things. People have their firm opinion about one thing and another thing. Inconsistency does not matter there. Most people are not open minded enough for thought provoking impulses.

btw. RSI divergence.