Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

In other news: "Court grants man divorce over wife's demand for excessive sex" http://news.oneindia.in/mumbai/court-grants-man-divorce-over-wife-s-demand-for-excessive-sex-1512784.html

The husband alleged that she used to force him into having unnatural sex and whenever he tried to resist it, she would abuse him following which he had to succumb to her pressure and persistent demands. He told the court that he worked in three shifts leaving him very tired, and even then he was compelled to satisfy her 'lust'.

Poor guy.   

Ok! Now think about the same news but interchanging the husband with the wife....is it still funny?

inb4:

omg! rape rape! sexism! women are opressed! etcetcetc.

not so funny the other way around...

... the female to male way around though....

.....dating a nympho is both rewarding, tiring , and tbh can be disturbing too...  pros and cons...

it is all funny and games til the bunny is in the pot, then not so

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[ShroomsKit]

Except for that wall at $515 the ask side looks rather flat at the moment! Thing is, I don't see any reason for a quick recovery at the moment. Either we're going up constantly and sustainably or we'll be in for some more bleeding out, including flash crashes. I think the latter is more probable!

Why would anybody buy. If we go up 10 or 20 bucks some whale will dump in your face and take us back 10 dollars lower as we were before. This has been going on for months now. Unless you are the one who dumps first you are very likely to lose your money.
People stopped buying. There is no buying pressure whatsoever anymore.
The dumpers are stopping user adoption and obviously they don't care if Bitcoin will succeed or not.
So they will do this all the way to 0 if they have to.

I just wish more people here who cheer about cheap coins with every dump would realize this. There is nothing to cheer about this situation. Unless you are a troll and want Bitcoin to fail.

[JorgeStolfi]

in previous discussions, you chose to include Chinese volume 1:1 in your analysis (i.e. you consider it as "real" as the volume on the other exchanges), while I consider large parts of Chinese volume meaningless for most analysis, at least when comparing cross exchanges or aggregating volume.

I am still not convinced that a "deflation factor" is justified there.

Volume is interesting, I presume, as a measure of liquidity.  Zero fees bring in more traders and also allows traders to trade on smaller spreads.  So there are both more coins in the market, and the same coins get traded many more times per day.

Should the second effect be discounted, or should it be counted as measure of liquidity, just like the first one?

Repeated trading does not provide liquidity for large buys or sells, but it shoud work for smaller ones.  With zero fees, a trader who just bought at 500$ may be willing to  sell again for 501$.  With fees, the same trader would probably hold back.   Thus, even with the same traders holding the same positions, a zero fee market would provide higher liquidity than one with fees.

Does this make sense?

[spooderman]

Explanation

Congratulations, charthero!

[findftp]

Explanation

Do I see some sort of tsunami developing here?
I mean, it looks like a spring coil waiting to release.

[oda.krell]

in previous discussions, you chose to include Chinese volume 1:1 in your analysis (i.e. you consider it as "real" as the volume on the other exchanges), while I consider large parts of Chinese volume meaningless for most analysis, at least when comparing cross exchanges or aggregating volume.

I am still not convinced that a "deflation factor" is justified there.

Volume is interesting, I presume, as a measure of liquidity.  Zero fees bring in more traders and also allows traders to trade on smaller spreads.  So there are both more coins in the market, and the same coins get traded many more times per day.

Should the second effect be discounted, or should it be counted as measure of liquidity, just like the first one?

Repeated trading does not provide liquidity for large buys or sells, but it shoud work for smaller ones.  With zero fees, a trader who just bought at 500$ may be willing to  sell again for 501$.  With fees, the same trader would probably hold back.   Thus, even with the same traders holding the same positions, a zero fee market would provide higher liquidity than one with fees.

Does this make sense?

In terms of market liquidity, you are absolutely right of course. But I'll try to clarify where I'm coming from when I look at volume as someone who tries to get trading insight from it:

1) volume now in relation to previous volume, same exchange, usually short history only. The much beloved "classical" TA that you appreciate so much. The simplest example is that of a capitulation and corresponding volume, for example. In that case, I don't care about volume being human or bot, based on the assumption that bot volume will represent an approximately equal share of volume during all periods (within some reasonable time frame).

2) aggregate volume over several exchanges, sometimes over a long history. This is the case where I heavily discount bot volume. Keep in mind why this volume analysis even exists: because for traders/speculators, it is perhaps the only available window into the actual on-exchange money flow (unless you happen to know the owners of mtgox or bitstamp, perhaps ). Back in the golden days, it was easy to do volume price analysis like that, across eras and exchanges: there was only one relevant exchange. With the advent of zero fee exchanges, this methods obviously doesn't work anymore - automatized trading volume with very low cost (zero fee, aiming at high frequency of small profits) quite obviously (to me at least) does not bear the same relation to money flow into Bitcoin as does a large, costly human order.

How to go from the assumptions in 2) is far from obvious, but perhaps it gives you an idea why I'm interested in ways of adjusting CNY volume in the first place.

[Schickeria]

Yes, I may used strong language from time to time, but that is NOT the same as personal attacks

Very rude language, often accompanied by circular reasoning and nearly all other kinds of (evil, but very clumsy) sophistry. The constant use of sophistry is nothing more than a perfidious form of trolling. Cynically, but also characteristically for (advanced) trolling, you are very, very fast accusing other people to troll.

/ignore

[JayJuanGee]

In other news: "Court grants man divorce over wife's demand for excessive sex" http://news.oneindia.in/mumbai/court-grants-man-divorce-over-wife-s-demand-for-excessive-sex-1512784.html

The husband alleged that she used to force him into having unnatural sex and whenever he tried to resist it, she would abuse him following which he had to succumb to her pressure and persistent demands. He told the court that he worked in three shifts leaving him very tired, and even then he was compelled to satisfy her 'lust'.

Poor guy.   

Ok! Now think about the same news but interchanging the husband with the wife....is it still funny?

inb4:

omg! rape rape! sexism! women are opressed! etcetcetc.

The reason that the first story is funny is b/c there is a lot of irony in it, and the more likely scenario would occur with the guy dominating and forcing the sex... ... Anyhow, probably neither one of them is funny if they are merely attempting to equate biology and sociology.. and to teach some kind of gender lesson.  There are reasons both sociologically and biologically that men and women play differing roles that are likely much beyond this thread (even though it is possible for bitcoin to touch on a wide array of topics).

[WillyBTC]

Lots of short term resistance in this 2930 area. Looks like we've been trying all night to get past it. Doesn't look like it will budge. Onto 450-460 next, then? What do you guys think?

[JayJuanGee]

Yes, I may used strong language from time to time, but that is NOT the same as personal attacks

Very rude language, often accompanied by circular reasoning and nearly all other kinds of (evil, but very clumsy) sophistry. The constant use of sophistry is nothing more than a perfidious form of trolling. Cynically, but also characteristically for (advanced) trolling, you are very, very fast accusing other people to troll.

/ignore

Yes... you seem to have arrived at some made-up definition regarding what is trolling and to whom it could arguably apply... though really sounds as if you are swimming in a fantasy world of your own making..

In reality, Language allows for expression and emphasis in various regards, and need NOT distract from the substance of the discussion.  Accordingly, if language suggests that someone is misleading or being disingenuous in their posts, there could be better ways to accomplish these kinds of communications to call them out.

If you are so easily distracted by my creative or NOT so creative use of language, then maybe it is better that you shut off your viewpoint and your exposure to various ideas in order that you will be able to better deal with the world as you understand it to be.  Hopefully your adaptive measures will help you in the long run in better understanding and dealing with the world as it is, rather than how you wish it were.

Good luck with that.

[ChancellorOnABrink]

Lots of short term resistance in this 2930 area. Looks like we've been trying all night to get past it. Doesn't look like it will budge. Onto 450-460 next, then? What do you guys think?

Just looked your post history.
You alway ask for new low.
You put a sign for some bits...

So look like a noob with almost 0 bitcoin dreaming about buying alot sub $10

keep dreaming

[ShroomsKit]

Lots of short term resistance in this 2930 area. Looks like we've been trying all night to get past it. Doesn't look like it will budge. Onto 450-460 next, then? What do you guys think?

But of course. Just another big dump followed by big walls at 470 and 470 will be the next resistance level. 470 will be very expensive so people are gonna want 420 coins. So the dumpers will take us there and put the resistance at 430.
But then we have a problem. Those 420 coins are suddenly very expensive. Why buy at 420 when you can buy at 370. Just a little more dumping will take us there. Aaaah those cheap coins at 370! But wait! Wtf? 370 is expensive as hell considering the resistance suddenly is at 380. Better dump those expensive coins and buy some cheap coins at 340!
I can already see all the people cheering here! Coins at 340!! How awesome will that be.
Too bad they will be expensive 10 mins later. But i know an easy solution! Just dump the shit out of the market and you can be the happy owner of some 260 coins! That would be a real party right! Better get started.

[JimboToronto]

Congratulations, charthero!

I see you're less than 2 weeks from hero status yourself.

Don't worry, I'm right behind you.  

That's one thing I like about Bitcointalk. Post count doesn't matter. Consistent attendance does.

Spamming trolls get no more credit than people who post once every couple of weeks.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[findftp]

Congratulations, charthero!

I see you're less than 2 weeks from hero status yourself.

Don't worry, I'm right behind you.  

That's one thing I like about Bitcointalk. Post count doesn't matter. Consistent attendance does.

Spamming trolls get no more credit than people who post once every couple of weeks.

I just read somewhere that it's not true what you said.
Maximum activity is created when at least post once every two weeks, but to maximize, you also should have a higher post count than activity number.

[ChancellorOnABrink]

That's one thing I like about Bitcointalk. Post count doesn't matter. Consistent attendance price prediction does.

[spooderman]

Congratulations, charthero!

I see you're less than 2 weeks from hero status yourself.

Don't worry, I'm right behind you.  

That's one thing I like about Bitcointalk. Post count doesn't matter. Consistent attendance does.

Spamming trolls get no more credit than people who post once every couple of weeks.

I am soon to be a hero it's true. Wish I could have an avatar.

And yes, I can feel you biting my ankles

[JimboToronto]

Congratulations, charthero!

I see you're less than 2 weeks from hero status yourself.

Don't worry, I'm right behind you.  

That's one thing I like about Bitcointalk. Post count doesn't matter. Consistent attendance does.

Spamming trolls get no more credit than people who post once every couple of weeks.

I just read somewhere that it's not true what you said.
Maximum activity is created when at least post once every two weeks, but to maximize, you also should have a higher post count than activity number.

Link?

Maybe a mod can clarify this matter.

[Sandia]

People stopped buying. There is no buying pressure whatsoever anymore.
The dumpers are stopping user adoption and obviously they don't care if Bitcoin will succeed or not.

Do you want to hear the scary part?
What would it imply if the big boys are scrambling to make money immediately, while sacrificing all the new adopters to near-term greed?  What does that say about their view of the future of btc?

Now THAT is scary.  And it seems to be happening.

Since the number of users follow the exponential curve, new adopters (less than 6 months or so, for example) should be the majority of owners (although obviously not the owners of a majority of coins).  Those are the people being encouraged to not hodl, but trade instead.  Those are the weak hands that are constantly shaken out.  They are the future of btc..or should have been.

My best guess for the bottom is ~340.  I will explain why if I am right.

[Sandia]

Congratulations, charthero!

I see you're less than 2 weeks from hero status yourself.

Don't worry, I'm right behind you.  

That's one thing I like about Bitcointalk. Post count doesn't matter. Consistent attendance does.

Spamming trolls get no more credit than people who post once every couple of weeks.

I just read somewhere that it's not true what you said.
Maximum activity is created when at least post once every two weeks, but to maximize, you also should have a higher post count than activity number.

Link?

Maybe a mod can clarify this matter.

Sticky post in the Meta forum.  It is the lesser of the activity number (2 week periods with a post*14) and post count.