[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[Deprived]

Deprived, missing my new 100 PURCHASE transfer

2013-06-18 02:13:51   DMS.PURCHASE   transfer-out (DeprivedMining)   100

Didn't miss it - was doing something else for half an hour.  Am up to date on transfer again now (unless any occurred in last few minutes).

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[somestranger]

Wow people are sure dumping mining, even more than I expected. It is interesting that MINING+SELLING is cheaper than buying PURCHASE right now -- I think maybe SELLING is undervalued? It seems the price dropped by the full amount of the dividend, but the MINING side should be bearing some of that decline.

[Deprived]

Wow people are sure dumping mining, even more than I expected. It is interesting that MINING+SELLING is cheaper than buying PURCHASE right now -- I think maybe SELLING is undervalued? It seems the price dropped by the full amount of the dividend, but the MINING side should be bearing some of that decline.

If the market pricing was correct then ALL of the dividend would have gone off the SELLING price afterwards.

I'm not seeing that MINING+SELLING is cheaper than PURCHASE.  Yeah - the Bids are, but the Asks aren't - you can't buy a MINING+SELLING for less than a PURCHASE.  You need to compare bids to bids and asks to asks.

The big drop in MINING isn't at all unexpected - I'd actually expected it to drop lower before recovering.  The prices of these are going to swing around a LOT more than for PMBs - as people can sell MINING or SELLING without having ever bought one : and the potential for panic selling is far higher.

With a normal PMB, if someone thinks its losing value or they paid too much they can just try to sell slightly below the Issuer's price.  You can see that happening on TAT.VM - where people are trying to sell just under his own .007 Ask (and pray he doesn't decide to sell cheaper himself of course).  They can't afford to wait and try to do that on MINING if they decide they paid too much as :

1.  There's no issuer's Ask wall to put Asks below.  I only sell PURCHASE - I've never sold MINING or SELLING and there's never been an official price for them.
2.  Anyone who thinks MINING is overpriced can just buy PURCHASE, split it and sell MINING - there's no restriction on who can undercut you so far more chance of it happening.  
3.  With TAT.VM (And all PMBs) all shares were bought at the initial price - so if they're sold below it then someone has made a loss on it.  With MINING that isn't the case - it could be a share straight from a split where the seller believes they're making (or locking in) a profit on the sale.

In short - the market will move to a new range much more quickly and stay there all the time that's where the general belief is that it belongs.  That makes it potentially far more profitable if you get it right - but also far more brutal when you get it wrong.

The price also can't be fixed in the same way it can on some PMBs.  Having a small number of shares issued allows someone with a good chunk of them to move the range to where they want.  That just can't be done on MINING and SELLING - as if you move the price to a wrong range then anyone who wants can just buy in and clear out your walls that were artifically propping the price up.  Usually such fixes are to raise the price after accumulating a lot - where noone else can break down your bid walls as there aren't enough shares.  That forces trading to be above the walls - making it look like it's the real range and fooling those not paying attention into believing the market set the price.

The only way that could be done here is if I was in on it - and I think if I refused to sell more PURCHASE or to split them there'd soon be threads pointing out that I was fixing the market by limiting supply.

[crypto-finance]

Can someone elaborate why MINING lost 35% of it's value today?

There has been at least some buyers in the last 2 hours, but it's not looking good.

My guess: because difficulty is going up exponentially so mining profitability is going down exponentially (especially for a PMB with fixed hashrate!), thus a shitty long-term investment. I personally am glad to finally have an opportunity to short Bitcoin mining bonds, because there's 3 sure things in this world: death, taxes and mining profitability going down.

[joele]

DMS.MINING price is the lowest PMB compare to other mining offers.
0.0195 = 5MH/s or 0.0039 = 1MH/s

[Deprived]

Sold   2415
Swapped   0
Total   2415
Price   0.054609
Total   131.880735
Less Fee   131.6169735
Man Fee   3.948509206

Management fee of 3.948 transferred

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    847.03313166
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    972.03313166
   
Outstanding MINING   18423
Outstanding SELLING   18423
Outstanding PURCHASE   227
Effective Units   18650
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    969.60821791
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05198972
Days Dividend Post Div   399.85
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    969.60821791
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05198972
PURCHASE selling price    0.05458920
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05094992

[Deprived]

There have been a couple of compromised accounts on BTC-TC lately - ones without 2FA of course.

I haven't stated it here (I have in other threads) but ALL accounts of mine which have 2FA available have 2FA enabled.

Where possible I use yubikey - where that isn't possible I use Google Authenticator.  My Google one-time passes are generated on a smart-phone NOT on any computer I use.

My yukikey is attached to the key-ring with my front-door key on and I carry my smartphone with me.  So even knowledge of my passwords AND physical access to the computers I use (none of which are public ones) would NOT allow access to my accounts.  Gaining access to an email account COULD allow changing/recovering a password but that would be useless without 2FA - which, of course, is why 2FA is absolutely essential.

Just clearing that up in case anyone was concerned.

EDIT: And I'm off to bed now - so any more transfers in won't get handled until an hour or so before today's dividend.

[Liquid]

I use 2FA also thanks for the div brother you are doing an excellent job  

[joele]

Difficulty is not rising much, if this will continue SELLER might not get any dividend in next adjustment.

[Lohoris]

Difficulty is not rising much, if this will continue SELLER might not get any dividend in next adjustment.

It's a bit early, I'd wait until saturday to read any meaningful estimate...

[Deprived]

Sold   1011
Swapped   0
Total   1011
Price   0.054589
Total   55.189479
Less Fee   55.07910004
Man Fee   1.652373001

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    898.03505875
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,023.03505875
   
Outstanding MINING   19450
Outstanding SELLING   19450
Outstanding PURCHASE   211
Effective Units   19661
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,020.47869257
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05190370
Days Dividend Post Div   399.19
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,020.47869257
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05190370
PURCHASE selling price    0.05449889
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05086563

[carnitastaco]

Difficulty is not rising much, if this will continue SELLER might not get any dividend in next adjustment.

pretty much entirely related to the asicminer hashing drop

[mpr20rt]

How is "Days Dividend Post Div" derived?

[Deprived]

How is "Days Dividend Post Div" derived?

NAV/U post dividend divided by the current MINING dividend.

It's the number of days the capital could continue to pay out the current MINING dividend assuming no change in NAV/U (other than the actual payment of the dividend itself).

[mpr20rt]

How is "Days Dividend Post Div" derived?

NAV/U post dividend divided by the current MINING dividend.

It's the number of days the capital could continue to pay out the current MINING dividend assuming no change in NAV/U (other than the actual payment of the dividend itself).

Under what circumstances NAV/U can change and  is SELLING dividend depends only and only upon diff change?

Thanks!

[Deprived]

How is "Days Dividend Post Div" derived?

NAV/U post dividend divided by the current MINING dividend.

It's the number of days the capital could continue to pay out the current MINING dividend assuming no change in NAV/U (other than the actual payment of the dividend itself).

Under what circumstances NAV/U can change and  is SELLING dividend depends only and only upon diff change?

Thanks!

NAV/U is the total amount of assets we hold divided by the effective number of outstanding units of PURCHASE.

Any time a dividend is paid it drops by the amount of the dividend.
If new PURCHASE are sold it rises slightly - as there's a small markup in their price.
In we make profit from investment then NAV/U rises.
If an investment were to default then NAV/U would fall (we won't invest in anything which can make a loss without defaulting)

SELLING only gets a dividend if the days of dividend post mining div is over 410.

If difficulty falls or stays the same or only rises slightly then SELLING won't get a dividend.
If difficulty rises a lot then SELLING can get a big dividend (as happened last change) - but NOT if difficulty had previously stayed the same/fallen for a while (as capital reserves would have to be refilled before there was any extra left that could safely be given to SELLING).

So yes - the MAIN factor (by a mile) deciding whether (and how large) SELLING gets a dividend IS the rate at which difficulty changes.

[somestranger]

Difficulty is not rising much, if this will continue SELLER might not get any dividend in next adjustment.

pretty much entirely related to the asicminer hashing drop

Exactly, and now it is going back up to higher levels than it was before. Difficulty is going to skyrocket once again!

[Deprived]

Sold   1148
Swapped   0
Total   1148
Price   0.054589
Total   62.668172
Less Fee   62.54283566
Man Fee   1.87628507

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    956.04225788
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,081.04225788
   
Outstanding MINING   20480
Outstanding SELLING   20480
Outstanding PURCHASE   329
Effective Units   20809
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,078.33662623
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05182068
Days Dividend Post Div   398.55
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,078.33662623
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05182068
PURCHASE selling price    0.05441172
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05078427

[joele]

Difficulty is not rising much, if this will continue SELLER might not get any dividend in next adjustment.

pretty much entirely related to the asicminer hashing drop

Exactly, and now it is going back up to higher levels than it was before. Difficulty is going to skyrocket once again!

Yap, Difficulty is rising again, if this will continue to rise with 20% increase, it can double your bitcoin in DMS.SELLER in just 2 months.

[Deprived]

Yap, difficulty is rising again, if this will continue to rise with 20% increase, it can double your bitcoin in DMS.SELLER in just 2 months.

That's not true.

SELLING costs a lot more than MINING.  At most it can gain the value of MINING as profit (and MINING isn't going to get 0 - whatever happens).  So there's just no way it can ever make 100% profit.

At current prices you have to pay .036 for selling and can only possibly win the .019 from MINING.  So absolute maximum profit (if MINING never got a single dividend more) is ~50%.  A little bit can be added to that for gain from new sales and investment - but no way that will take it anywhere near doubling your money.