Analysis

[molecular]

If it fails like $300 failed in nov '15, or how $500 failed in aug '16, then I'm good to go.

$780 looks like strong support, the crazy panic selling didn't manage to take it down even though price went below it shortly.

There could be another attack on it and I'm not sure it would hold on second attack. A lot of people are close to panicking as is. Not everybody bought in 2012 or earlier, so that's a difference to the 2013 rallyes were noone had bought at those prices. Above $1200 things would look differently... but we're still in known territory where a lot has been going on already.

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[Kramerc]

If it fails like $300 failed in nov '15, or how $500 failed in aug '16, then I'm good to go.

$780 looks like strong support, the crazy panic selling didn't manage to take it down even though price went below it shortly.

There could be another attack on it and I'm not sure it would hold on second attack. A lot of people are close to panicking as is. Not everybody bought in 2012 or earlier, so that's a difference to the 2013 rallyes were noone had bought at those prices. Above $1200 things would look differently... but we're still in known territory where a lot has been going on already.

I'm not sure either it would hold, guess we'll have to see.

Otoh, I don't really understand your point regarding the difference between now and 2013. What do you mean, noone had bought at those prices? Who propped the market to ATH if nobody bought there?

[notme]

If it fails like $300 failed in nov '15, or how $500 failed in aug '16, then I'm good to go.

$780 looks like strong support, the crazy panic selling didn't manage to take it down even though price went below it shortly.

There could be another attack on it and I'm not sure it would hold on second attack. A lot of people are close to panicking as is. Not everybody bought in 2012 or earlier, so that's a difference to the 2013 rallyes were noone had bought at those prices. Above $1200 things would look differently... but we're still in known territory where a lot has been going on already.

I'm not sure either it would hold, guess we'll have to see.

Otoh, I don't really understand your point regarding the difference between now and 2013. What do you mean, noone had bought at those prices? Who propped the market to ATH if nobody bought there?

In 2013 the rally happened much more quickly.  There was only a very short amount of time over $1000.  We held above it much longer this time, so more bitcoins changed hands above $1000.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Interesting ... noone seems to know what the heck is going on or have definite ideas on direction (except for permabears are saying down and permabulls are saying up).

Resorting to the default position in bitcoin is then safest position, 8 year secular trend .... bullish.

[maker88]

CryptoWaves 5 days ago predicted another leg down as low as $705 on BitFinex before resuming advance.

the target of that move down was quoted 'between 850 and 705' the drop to 750 could have been it. we will see.

[dmwardjr]

Has anyone else noticed the following months on the vertical time lines listed below???  I will take this down within an hour or two and leave only the link to respect the thread.  Most here seem to want EW.  What I do is kind of similar but I call it Loaded Gun.  Ignore the guns and just focus on the Time Lines.

Every Blue Vertical Time Line marks every January and June in which BTC was dumped.

Every Purple Vertical Time Line marks every May and/or September in Which Springs and or Up Thrust begin.

[img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/pYnVeFjN/[/img

EDIT:  Close Up  

[img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/8oj5QENv/[/img

[molecular]

hmm, "loaded gun pattern".

looks like a mix of "bull flag" and "cup & handle", no?

[dmwardjr]

hmm, "loaded gun pattern".

looks like a mix of "bull flag" and "cup & handle", no?

By the way,  The gun is not loaded unless it's a bull trend.  Wyckoff's Cycle to a Spring marks the end of a bear trend into a bull trend that leads to loaded guns.  Bad and good events/news and World GEO Politics can affect trends as you know...  Which can make changes to formation of guns, size of guns (caliber with or without modifications) and the power of the round in the chamber (number of grains in the round) in a BULL TREND ONLY.  The trend determined by the outer bands of this modified BB Hybrid.

Certainly agree with that as well.  I was just wondering if everyone noticed that timeline pattern I mentioned in those particular 4 months...

Without the guns and a little bit of a close up.  Honest everyone...  Taking down the charts and leaving only the link to it in about an hour.

[img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/niuKMqH9/[/img

[dmwardjr]

After seeing Loaded Gun, I have [What I believe is] a legitimate question concerning "historical" waves numbering with EW's ...

Is it possible, since wave 2 was rejected [My opinion with Loaded Gun] that we are repeating historical wave 2 [To finish it out so to speak] before beginning to historical wave 3 [Loaded Gun 3]?  Or am I getting the concept of "historical" waves all wrong?

I'm saying Historical EW Number 2 (Loaded Gun 2) was rejected and forming again at this "breakout/soon support" level Loaded Gun 2 was before in order to say Historical WAVE Number 2 is completed and NOW we can progress towards Historical EW Number 3 (Loaded Gun 3).

Loaded Gun on a 'log" scale if you are curious:  https://www.tradingview.com/x/CILEay4o/

[molecular]

dmwardjr, I personally don't mind you leaving the charts visible.

[dmwardjr]

dmwardjr, I personally don't mind you leaving the charts visible.

If there are no objections, I'll leaving them up.

By the way, I edited that chart in previous post on log scale.  The link should be different from what it was originally.

EDIT:  Changed that link again because I changed a note.  https://www.tradingview.com/x/CILEay4o/

[Hunyadi]

dmwardjr, I personally don't mind you leaving the charts visible.

Same here!

[Kramerc]

If it fails like $300 failed in nov '15, or how $500 failed in aug '16, then I'm good to go.

$780 looks like strong support, the crazy panic selling didn't manage to take it down even though price went below it shortly.

There could be another attack on it and I'm not sure it would hold on second attack. A lot of people are close to panicking as is. Not everybody bought in 2012 or earlier, so that's a difference to the 2013 rallyes were noone had bought at those prices. Above $1200 things would look differently... but we're still in known territory where a lot has been going on already.

I'm not sure either it would hold, guess we'll have to see.

Otoh, I don't really understand your point regarding the difference between now and 2013. What do you mean, noone had bought at those prices? Who propped the market to ATH if nobody bought there?

In 2013 the rally happened much more quickly.  There was only a very short amount of time over $1000.  We held above it much longer this time, so more bitcoins changed hands above $1000.

I would rather say that coins change hands when trades happen, not when time passes.

When times does pass, people get accustomed to the prices, so in that regard, time spent here is much more bullish than 2013, I agree.

[dmwardjr]

EDIT:  

DIFFERENT Numbering System:

First BIG Gun [G-1a, On Stamps Monthly History] was being formed, beginning August, 2012 UP TO G-1c on November/December, 2014. A BIG consolidation had to take place at some point, it ended up being Mount Goxxed that continued until September 2015.

Then was CONFIRMED a SPRING had begun and we are still on it to this day ON THE MONTHLY. This SPRING will likely end up in growing into an Up Thrust soon. Especially, once we have one more consolidation round Beginning in May or June, 2017 with a group of similar dumps as before.

The reason the names of each consolidation point (Dumps) has changed from "G" to "LG" is because the gun is loaded and getting ready to fire with a volatile wave after wave up bull rally's with consolidation dumps and LIKELY some UP THRUSTS with consolidation dumps along the way.

Once the gun has Fired as we continue a bull run, We will have begun forming Gun Number 2. The numbers of Gun 2 will begin as G-2a for each wave of Pumps with consolidation dumps until we get to a point of a VERY LARGE Consolidation move to fall into a bear cycle to work towards another Wyckoff Cycle to a Spring and/or Up thrust. Which at that time is LOADING Gun 2. That is when we begin labeling each Pump with Consolidation Dumps LG-2 [For Loaded Gun - 2] instead of G-2 [That's not formed yet to be loaded].

It's only natural for Bitcoin to collocate with this kind of logic because of the way it's designed.  Deflation is getting ever closer...

[img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/H0WAJJCG/[/img

I'm curious, are EW's being numbered in this fashion?  I probably need to look back again in the thread to understand exactly...  I renumbered mine in the link below to see if anyone gets what I'm getting to with the numbering.  I'm simply trying to devise a Long Term outlook based on my theory with "Loaded Guns."

[dmwardjr]

Text Bubbles explain where I think we are going...

EDIT:  By the way, that's with Heikin-Ashi Candles and not regular candles on the Weekly...

EDIT:  Link to Monthly TF:  https://www.tradingview.com/x/D9mUG8BY/

EDIT:  Link to 2 Month TF: https://www.tradingview.com/x/PUljnfzG/

EDIT:  Link to 2D TF:  For whatever reason, the link is not showing up here but it's in the "Edit Message" content.  hmmmmm  [img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/AlccMaJq/[/img

[img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/RZ7PujsU/[/img

[Kramerc]

Don't you think it would be simply better if you had your own thread?

This way you're just congesting masterluc's thread with stuff that some people don't expect to see when checking it.

Cheers.

[dmwardjr]

Don't you think it would be simply better if you had your own thread?

This way you're just congesting masterluc's thread with stuff that some people don't expect to see when checking it.

Cheers.

If Masterluc wants me to stop, I will stop.  I'm not trying to be difficult.  I thought this is a forum for discussion... is it not?

EDIT:  I'm not in here trolling; saying moon, death to bitcoin, talking about other coins, etc...

[ErisDiscordia]

Don't you think it would be simply better if you had your own thread?

This way you're just congesting masterluc's thread with stuff that some people don't expect to see when checking it.

Cheers.

I second this. I am not trying to discourage you from posting, dmwardjr - quite the contrary. I find your analysis to be interesting enough to deserve its own thread.

[torrentco]

i will watch that thread closely.please get your own thread.

[dmwardjr]

i will watch that thread closely.please get your own thread.

Don't you think it would be simply better if you had your own thread?

This way you're just congesting masterluc's thread with stuff that some people don't expect to see when checking it.

Cheers.

I second this. I am not trying to discourage you from posting, dmwardjr - quite the contrary. I find your analysis to be interesting enough to deserve its own thread.

I'll stop posting so much in here and start my own Thread.  Too sleepy to start with a proper cover page.  Will work on it some time soon.  I'll still drop in from time to time... But only links...

EDIT:  Rather NOT create a thread here on BT, I'll just keep publishings going on TV for a while.  I just don't have the time to keep up multiple threads on multiple sites and do all the other things I need to do daily.

By the way, I noticed a pattern thats worked 3 out of 3 times; in terms of where proper placement should be of 100% FIB re-tracement on the way back down from Consolidation/Dumps to the 0.618% Throwbacks we normally have after a BIG breakout from a gun firing.  It's worked 3 out of 3 times now and leaves the 0.382, 0.236 running pretty well as well.  I wrote the rules regarding the pattern I noticed that could be followed on the next Consolidation move.  We'll see in May or June if it works 4 out of 4...

Link to Screenshot of the rules written within the text bubbles repeatedly for the 3 out of 3 times it's occurred in this bull run up since 2015.  https://www.tradingview.com/x/fPfJiwiT/

Closeups of each of those 3 FIB results for each of those Consolidation moves (Dumps) are included in comments underneath the cover shot in this publication:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zoCDkQFg-NOTICED-A-PATTERN-WITH-FIB-RETRACEMENT-Copy-in-Comments/

EDIT:  That pattern ended up becoming known as 2 Guns Down for 0.618 RT "down" from peak of consolidation event AND 3 Guns Down for "peak" of "next" consolidation event.  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Z5uTqARD-COPIED-PASTED-for-Mobil-devices-in-Comments-GL-FLOW-CHART/