BFL announces 28nm 600GH/S blade for $4680

[bflmarket5]

Crazy...some people paying $50,000 for the 500GH/s massive miners and then this immediately after they ship out like 10 of them. What a slap in the face.

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[bcp19]

<kick>

Maybe we can get the needle to stop skipping on this record and move along.

Still waiting.

[k9quaint]

<kick>

Maybe we can get the needle to stop skipping on this record and move along.

Still waiting.

You asked for a breakdown of the 100,000 devices. I gave it to you.
Stop asking. You have it already.
If you don't understand the math, have someone explain it to you.

You said BFL had 70,000 orders and that they had shipped less than 5%. Given the current bitcoin network hash rate of 500 TH/s, plus the other ASIC vendors, and your estimate of a 7PH/s orderbook, BFL could not have shipped more than 5% of that order book unless they shipped over 350TH/s of product.

You said that on average, each BFL order is for 100GH/s. Thus 70,000 orders, each for 100GH/s.

There was a total of 7668 devices in that table (http://bfl.ptz.ro/) for 4951 orders. This is an average of 1.548 devices per order.

1.548 x 70,000 is 108,400 devices total according to the distribution of http://bfl.ptz.ro/.

5% of that order book is 5,420 devices.

If we subtract that from 108,400 we get 102,980 devices left in the backlog.

102,980 is more than 100,000, thus 100,000+ devices would be accurate.

At 300 units per day, BFL would need 344 days to ship that many units. September 30th is only 35 days away.

The fact that you cannot reply to the basic math I have posted (it proves your 2 assertions to be incompatible) demonstrates that you are just a shill without substance. Either declare what about that math does not add up, or we can assume it is proof that your positions are not internally consistent. We will also have more proof that since you cannot respond to addition, subtraction and multiplication that it is highly unlikely you ever attended MIT as you claimed.

Since your posts are now entirely devoid of content I have to attach the following:
If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules).
First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky.
If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days.
If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC at  http://www.ftc.gov/complaint and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises.
You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-forms

There are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0

[erk]

Crazy...some people paying $50,000 for the 500GH/s massive miners and then this immediately after they ship out like 10 of them. What a slap in the face.

the 500GH/s miner was a flop, it was meant to be a 1,500GH/s miner, but BFL screwed the power consumption calculations, so the 500GH/s was a hack job to still honor their commitment for a certain number of GH/s at a given price.  It wouldn't surprise me if the reason BFL were shipping the 500GH/s units so slowly was they wanted to replace them with a less power hungry chip for months now, but weren't ready to announce 28nm product.

[bcp19]

<kick>

Maybe we can get the needle to stop skipping on this record and move along.

Still waiting.

You asked for a breakdown of the 100,000 devices. I gave it to you.
Stop asking. You have it already.
If you don't understand the math, have someone explain it to you.

There are only 7668 known devices.  You said that extrapolating out to the 70k orders was bad math, now you are using bad math and repeating it back at me.  You cannot have it both ways. If it was bad for me, it is bad for you and therefore incorrect.

You are using estimates *I* made and claiming them as your own instead of figuring your own, can you not make a guestimate yourself or must you continue to rely on others work?

You are unable to think for yourself, cause you only know how to cut and paste, therefore I disavow your conclusions.

Still Waiting.

[k9quaint]

<kick>

Maybe we can get the needle to stop skipping on this record and move along.

Still waiting.

You asked for a breakdown of the 100,000 devices. I gave it to you.
Stop asking. You have it already.
If you don't understand the math, have someone explain it to you.

There are only 7668 known devices.  You said that extrapolating out to the 70k orders was bad math, now you are using bad math and repeating it back at me.  You cannot have it both ways. If it was bad for me, it is bad for you and therefore incorrect.

Ah, you finally respond to what I posted. Glad you admitted that you estimated 70,000 orders, we can stop arguing about that.
Well, is it bad math or not? My point was that the math was not consistent with your other claims. Since it is your math I am posting, I would like to know. Is BFL able to ship 100,000 devices in 35 days, or is your math wrong in your "guesstimate".

You are using estimates *I* made and claiming them as your own instead of figuring your own, can you not make a guestimate yourself or must you continue to rely on others work?

Glad you are finally putting your name to the 7PH/s again.
I said they were YOUR guesstimates. I even linked to your original posting of them. Several times in fact.
Maybe if you read what I wrote, you might not come off as so ignorant. Perhaps skimming them before you delete them might be a good start.

You are unable to think for yourself, cause you only know how to cut and paste, therefore I disavow your conclusions.
Still Waiting.

I have done nothing but post your positions next to each other. You are disavowing yourself. Which is good, because you were wrong somewhere.
BFL cannot have a 100,000 device backlog like your "guesstimate" suggests AND ship all of them by Sept. 30th.

[bcp19]

Ah, you finally respond to what I posted. Glad you admitted that you estimated 70,000 orders, we can stop arguing about that.
Well, is it bad math or not? My point was that the math was not consistent with your other claims. Since it is your math I am posting, I would like to know. Is BFL able to ship 100,000 devices in 35 days, or is your math wrong in your "guesstimate".

You called it bad math, you then used it. You decide.

Typical.  Childish games and nothing more.  Pat yourself on the back.

1) your backlog is not my preorder, so your question is moot.
2) Forest... trees...

You still have not provided me with your estimate of how much network hash BFL has added to the network using the http://bfl.ptz.ro/ site as I did.

To remind you, I said ~8000 Jalapeno, ~1600 LS, ~500 singles and ~77 Mini's.  My estimated Network hash = 165TH

Now I am sure you will simply continue your childish game of GOTCHA!  So I really don't expect an answer.

Plus, I doubt you could perform the calculations anyway.

Cheers.

[k9quaint]

Ah, you finally respond to what I posted. Glad you admitted that you estimated 70,000 orders, we can stop arguing about that.
Well, is it bad math or not? My point was that the math was not consistent with your other claims. Since it is your math I am posting, I would like to know. Is BFL able to ship 100,000 devices in 35 days, or is your math wrong in your "guesstimate".

You called it bad math, you then used it. You decide.

I used your math to demonstrate that it was not consistent with your other claims about BFL being able to ship. Therefore, one of your claims must be wrong. It upset you so much that you refused to even discuss it and deleted it from your posts. Now you can either pick: a) 7 PH/s orderbook, or b) backlog cleared by Sept. 30th. If you want to pick both, then you need to explain how BFL can ship 100,000 units by Sept. 30th.

Typical.  Childish games and nothing more.  Pat yourself on the back.

No, I was simply posting 2 things you said and demonstrating that they are incompatible. You STILL haven't explained how BFL can ship 100,000 devices by september 30th.

1) your backlog is not my preorder, so your question is moot.
2) Forest... trees...

You referred to it in a thread about BFL shipping backlogs. You called them orders and orderlog. You asked for the definition of backlog. Everyone was talking about backlogs. You already admitted that you guesstimated 7PH/s.

You still have not provided me with your estimate of how much network hash BFL has added to the network using the http://bfl.ptz.ro/ site as I did.

To remind you, I said ~8000 Jalapeno, ~1600 LS, ~500 singles and ~77 Mini's.  My estimated Network hash = 165TH

Now I am sure you will simply continue your childish game of GOTCHA!  So I really don't expect an answer.

Plus, I doubt you could perform the calculations anyway.

Cheers.

Here is your claim again so you can't pretend otherwise:

BFL: 7PH and rising.

Got a link or breakdown.

1) Has anyone compiled a guestimate of the amount of pre-orders.
2) I did a breakdown in a previous thread I cannot find ATM.  Worked out to an average .1TH per BFL order and ~70k orders using the ~4900 known orders.
3) Refunds were not taken into account due to lack of information.
4) Monarchs were considered the "and rising"

Why would I provide more math, when you cannot agree to simple addition and subtraction. Either drop the claim that BFL can ship their backlog by Sept 30th, or point out the flaw in the math (it is your math after all), or if there are 100,000 devices in the backlog explain how BFL can ship them by Sept. 30th.

If your math is correct, why won't you defend it and why do I need to supply any new estimates? If your math is incorrect, why won't you admit to it?

[Xian01]

I'm not sure I can take any more of this inane back-and-forth.

This entire thread has become a

[mechs]

This whole discussion is stupid.  Anyone who thinks that this "Monarch" is anything but a scam is a fool and deserves to be parted with their cash. Even if they delivered "on-time", by February, it is a negative ROI anyway.  And that is the best case scenario.  If idiots want to go give their money to scammers, let them go ahead. Fools and their money are soon parted anyway.

[k9quaint]

I'm not sure I can take any more of this inane back-and-forth.

This entire thread has become a

Are you implying that there was a point where the thread was not composed entirely of shit?
Did you not read the title? 

[Bicknellski]

I'm not sure I can take any more of this inane back-and-forth.

This entire thread has become a

Apple compote my favorite.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

I'm not sure I can take any more of this inane back-and-forth.

This entire thread has become a

LUNCH! Pass the salt, please.

[Fiyasko]

Now who's half of the argument is less informative or more annoying, Seems like bcp19 wins on both of those.
Please shut up

[bcp19]

Ah, you finally respond to what I posted. Glad you admitted that you estimated 70,000 orders, we can stop arguing about that.
Well, is it bad math or not? My point was that the math was not consistent with your other claims. Since it is your math I am posting, I would like to know. Is BFL able to ship 100,000 devices in 35 days, or is your math wrong in your "guesstimate".

You called it bad math, you then used it. You decide.

I used your math to demonstrate that it was not consistent with your other claims about BFL being able to ship. Therefore, one of your claims must be wrong. It upset you so much that you refused to even discuss it and deleted it from your posts. Now you can either pick: a) 7 PH/s orderbook, or b) backlog cleared by Sept. 30th. If you want to pick both, then you need to explain how BFL can ship 100,000 units by Sept. 30th.

Typical.  Childish games and nothing more.  Pat yourself on the back.

No, I was simply posting 2 things you said and demonstrating that they are incompatible. You STILL haven't explained how BFL can ship 100,000 devices by september 30th.

1) your backlog is not my preorder, so your question is moot.
2) Forest... trees...

You referred to it in a thread about BFL shipping backlogs. You called them orders and orderlog. You asked for the definition of backlog. Everyone was talking about backlogs. You already admitted that you guesstimated 7PH/s.

You still have not provided me with your estimate of how much network hash BFL has added to the network using the http://bfl.ptz.ro/ site as I did.

To remind you, I said ~8000 Jalapeno, ~1600 LS, ~500 singles and ~77 Mini's.  My estimated Network hash = 165TH

Now I am sure you will simply continue your childish game of GOTCHA!  So I really don't expect an answer.

Plus, I doubt you could perform the calculations anyway.

Cheers.

Here is your claim again so you can't pretend otherwise:

BFL: 7PH and rising.

Got a link or breakdown.

1) Has anyone compiled a guestimate of the amount of pre-orders.
2) I did a breakdown in a previous thread I cannot find ATM.  Worked out to an average .1TH per BFL order and ~70k orders using the ~4900 known orders.
3) Refunds were not taken into account due to lack of information.
4) Monarchs were considered the "and rising"

Why would I provide more math, when you cannot agree to simple addition and subtraction. Either drop the claim that BFL can ship their backlog by Sept 30th, or point out the flaw in the math (it is your math after all), or if there are 100,000 devices in the backlog explain how BFL can ship them by Sept. 30th.

If your math is correct, why won't you defend it and why do I need to supply any new estimates? If your math is incorrect, why won't you admit to it?

*I* still never said 100,000 you did.

*I* also stated refunds and cancellations were not taken into account

*I* knew I was overestimating, but you are still taking it as gospel.

*I* am not the one using childish "GOTCHA!" tricks to prove nothing.

 http://bfl.ptz.ro/, while containing some bad data, is the ONLY source of KNOWN BFL orders.

Using it, we can simply add up:

Current blogs entries show MR up to July 28  32 known devices (1/3). + 13 known(2/3) 22.5TH minimum. (from ~13%[1/3] and ~25%[2.3] of possible orders.)
Singles are up to 6 JUL, 298 known devices.  18TH minimum. (from ~14% of possible orders)
LS are up to 11 Oct, 123 known devices.  3.075 TH minimum (from ~9.6% of possible orders)
Jala up to Jan 31.  930 known devices.  4.65TH minimum. (from ~8.4% of possible orders)

48TH from minimally known orders.  I think we can easily double that to 96TH and say minimum they shipped.

Tripling it to 144TH possible.  Quadrupling it to 194TH doubtful.

your 80TH is looking shaky.

But then, you refuse to do the math, likely cause you are afraid to show your ability.

[nexus99]

I would bet that the big business that BFL does never has an online order number.

People have sit down meetings over dinner... sign some contracts and then bank x-fers of 500k+ are made and truckfulls of equipment are dispatched.

There is no way to estimate how much BFL hash rate is in the wild by looking at online orders... you can only get a glimpse of what the minimum amount is.

[smoothie]

On the other hand, BFL managed to create a chip from scratch, design and manufacture numerous boards.  Design and manufacture cases, power supplies, heat sinks, cables and a whole host of other parts. 

I call BS, simply because you took too much money from ordinary customers to accomplish that. With all that money at your disposal you are a total failure.
Your timing is a failure, your product is a failure, your company is a failure, and you are a total failure.

He knows he is a failure. No need to rub it in. I on the other hand am not so easily dissuaded. Let us see who gets sued less that be the benchmark I would love to be measured against.

Heh... that's what I thought.  The "Busineess for Dummies" book that you read didn't work out and now you're throwing a tantrum to try to take attention away from the fact that your entire business is a failure from start to finish.  Meanwhile, in BFL land, more product than any other company has been shipped.  More hashrate than any other company has been shipped.  Poor Bick is left looking at his failure of a plan wondering what went wrong.  So sad.

Asicminer?

No, ASICMiner = Most expensive ASIC cost per GH. That's the only department ASICMiner beats BFL... Money raked in.

Let's ignore that BFL has the longest order queue and oldest queue of orders to date.

[smoothie]

My summary of BFL's new photoshopped vaporware:

1. Delivery likely won't happen until May 2014

2. ROI of your investment will not be 100% (more likely than not in BTC terms).

3. BFL wanting to go only BTC for payments says a lot about their position concerning refunds through paypal.

They are cash strapped with an overtly larger queue of orders than their current cash reserves can fulfill.

Customer monies -> R&D = Interest free loan.


New customer monies -> Production Cost Payment for Old customers....rinse and repeat the ponzi cycle.

[Bicknellski]

My summary of BFL's new photoshopped vaporware:

2. ROI of your investment will not be 100% (more likely than not in BTC terms).

Breakdown?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=281279.msg3008390#msg3008390

[k9quaint]

*I* still never said 100,000 you did.

But you did when you said 70,000 orders from the http://bfl.ptz.ro/ dataset. You said there were 70,000 orders. That dataset has roughly 1.5 devices per order. Thus, roughly 100,000 devices. Therefore, if you want to use that data set and you want to declare that there are 70,000 orders then you have to accept that there are roughly 100,000 devices in those ordres. Elementary math.

*I* also stated refunds and cancellations were not taken into account

Right. So between 0 and 7 PH/s were canceled.

*I* knew I was overestimating, but you are still taking it as gospel.

We argued about it. You defended it religiously until the math became so obvious that you could not longer deny with a straight face. Then you started deleting the math from your posts like that would somehow make it disappear. Now you have started backpedaling. Just a few posts ago, you reaffirmed your support for a 7PH/s backlog. I take it now that you are disavowing that estimate? Or maybe you would just like to say that you have no idea what the size of BFL's order book is?

*I* am not the one using childish "GOTCHA!" tricks to prove nothing.

You may think math is childish, but unfortunately it underpins everything about bitcoin. So if you want to hang out here you better learn not to make simple math mistakes or you will be ridiculed for it.

http://bfl.ptz.ro/, while containing some bad data, is the ONLY source of KNOWN BFL orders.

Using it, we can simply add up:

Current blogs entries show MR up to July 28  32 known devices (1/3). + 13 known(2/3) 22.5TH minimum. (from ~13%[1/3] and ~25%[2.3] of possible orders.)
Singles are up to 6 JUL, 298 known devices.  18TH minimum. (from ~14% of possible orders)
LS are up to 11 Oct, 123 known devices.  3.075 TH minimum (from ~9.6% of possible orders)
Jala up to Jan 31.  930 known devices.  4.65TH minimum. (from ~8.4% of possible orders)

48TH from minimally known orders.  I think we can easily double that to 96TH and say minimum they shipped.

Tripling it to 144TH possible.  Quadrupling it to 194TH doubtful.

your 80TH is looking shaky.

But then, you refuse to do the math, likely cause you are afraid to show your ability.

I have been doing math. Math which shows that either your 7PH/s orderbook stance is wrong, or BFL can't ship by the end of Sept 30th. Both cannot be true, because by BFL's own admission they can only ship maximum of 300 units a day.

So you take the data you have from http://bfl.ptz.ro/. You don't like it so you double it. That is not far enough from 80TH/s (which was the last number calculated for BFL shipments using a method that made sense), so you want to triple it. You feel like you might be pushing things so you decide not to quadruple it. Nice method. Very MIT chic.

After we put to bed the 7 Peta/Hash per second BFL order book prediction you made. We can focus on adding up the hash rate of the other ASIC players and seeing what is left. Until you can agree to the old math or point out where it is flawed, it is pointless to move on. You will just continue to claim 2+2=5 and play fast and loose about your own statements (which I will have to continue to post here to "refresh" your memory).