BFL announces 28nm 600GH/S blade for $4680

[bcp19]

I am confused

 This is why many people have you on ignore.

Am I supposed to care?  You ducked the question... how did you get .1 BTC erupters?

[mnyonpa]

ASICMINER had an offer several weeks ago where you could order 1 USB Block Erupter at BTC0.1 for every Erupter you had previously ordered with them.

[PuertoLibre]

bcp19, My fellow shill in arms. I have to pat you on the back for doing all this effort to date. Now is the time for you to retire to BFL headquarters. They need you there to put away some dishes and dirty towels.

Don't worry, I will take over your hard job from this point on.

========================[Puts on Master SHILL Hat]=================
@ Detractors
I agree with everything you say, except, in cases where you say BFL is the shit! (read into that as you will!)

I understand your meaning, but I don't even have a BFL hat on at the moment.

Everyone is so blinded by BFL hate they cannot see the big picture.  While I predicted today to be up close to 1PH network speed, I'm really not off by much(Since the network was less than 150TH when I predicted it).  My 7PH prediction by Nov 1 is looking a bit shaky as more and more companies delay.

When the logic states that it is criminal for BFL to sell so much product that their customers cannot make a positive RoI in 90 days(read fucked them), where does that leave us today?  NO company can guarantee a positive RoI in 90 days, yet ONLY BFL is fucking customers.  By this logic alone ASICMiner has fucked his customers since June cause those USB's will never earn positive RoI.

How many USB's you got Xian??? Since my GPU running ~300MH is getting .0023 daily I'd say yours are getting .0026 a day each maximum.  40 would be ~.104 per day, so your 'every couple hours' means you have like 320-500 of them.  I am confused over the .1 pricing though, last I checked they were at ~.35.

Your estimations aren't realistic. You need to undershoot so that your estimates fall in line with reality.

[bcp19]

bcp19, My fellow shill in arms. I have to pat you on the back for doing all this effort to date. Now is the time for you to retire to BFL headquarters. They need you there to put away some dishes and dirty towels.

Don't worry, I will take over your hard job from this point on.

========================[Puts on Master SHILL Hat]=================
@ Detractors
I agree with everything you say, except, in cases where you say BFL is the shit! (read into that as you will!)

I understand your meaning, but I don't even have a BFL hat on at the moment.

Everyone is so blinded by BFL hate they cannot see the big picture.  While I predicted today to be up close to 1PH network speed, I'm really not off by much(Since the network was less than 150TH when I predicted it).  My 7PH prediction by Nov 1 is looking a bit shaky as more and more companies delay.

When the logic states that it is criminal for BFL to sell so much product that their customers cannot make a positive RoI in 90 days(read fucked them), where does that leave us today?  NO company can guarantee a positive RoI in 90 days, yet ONLY BFL is fucking customers.  By this logic alone ASICMiner has fucked his customers since June cause those USB's will never earn positive RoI.

How many USB's you got Xian??? Since my GPU running ~300MH is getting .0023 daily I'd say yours are getting .0026 a day each maximum.  40 would be ~.104 per day, so your 'every couple hours' means you have like 320-500 of them.  I am confused over the .1 pricing though, last I checked they were at ~.35.

Your estimations aren't realistic. You need to undershoot so that your estimates fall in line with reality.

What if everyone over-estimated?  You'd have a lot less unhappy people right now cause life would be better than they dreamed it would be.

[PuertoLibre]

bcp19, My fellow shill in arms. I have to pat you on the back for doing all this effort to date. Now is the time for you to retire to BFL headquarters. They need you there to put away some dishes and dirty towels.

Don't worry, I will take over your hard job from this point on.

========================[Puts on Master SHILL Hat]=================
@ Detractors
I agree with everything you say, except, in cases where you say BFL is the shit! (read into that as you will!)

I understand your meaning, but I don't even have a BFL hat on at the moment.

Everyone is so blinded by BFL hate they cannot see the big picture.  While I predicted today to be up close to 1PH network speed, I'm really not off by much(Since the network was less than 150TH when I predicted it).  My 7PH prediction by Nov 1 is looking a bit shaky as more and more companies delay.

When the logic states that it is criminal for BFL to sell so much product that their customers cannot make a positive RoI in 90 days(read fucked them), where does that leave us today?  NO company can guarantee a positive RoI in 90 days, yet ONLY BFL is fucking customers.  By this logic alone ASICMiner has fucked his customers since June cause those USB's will never earn positive RoI.

How many USB's you got Xian??? Since my GPU running ~300MH is getting .0023 daily I'd say yours are getting .0026 a day each maximum.  40 would be ~.104 per day, so your 'every couple hours' means you have like 320-500 of them.  I am confused over the .1 pricing though, last I checked they were at ~.35.

Your estimations aren't realistic. You need to undershoot so that your estimates fall in line with reality.

What if everyone over-estimated?  You'd have a lot less unhappy people right now cause life would be better than they dreamed it would be.

If you overestimated then you would be wrong (as you are now) and everyone will have a positive outlook.

If you underestimate, and you are right, then everyone in the present will see this as a baseline for what is to come. Just make sure to create a *very reasonable* baseline.

[bcp19]

bcp19, My fellow shill in arms. I have to pat you on the back for doing all this effort to date. Now is the time for you to retire to BFL headquarters. They need you there to put away some dishes and dirty towels.

Don't worry, I will take over your hard job from this point on.

========================[Puts on Master SHILL Hat]=================
@ Detractors
I agree with everything you say, except, in cases where you say BFL is the shit! (read into that as you will!)

I understand your meaning, but I don't even have a BFL hat on at the moment.

Everyone is so blinded by BFL hate they cannot see the big picture.  While I predicted today to be up close to 1PH network speed, I'm really not off by much(Since the network was less than 150TH when I predicted it).  My 7PH prediction by Nov 1 is looking a bit shaky as more and more companies delay.

When the logic states that it is criminal for BFL to sell so much product that their customers cannot make a positive RoI in 90 days(read fucked them), where does that leave us today?  NO company can guarantee a positive RoI in 90 days, yet ONLY BFL is fucking customers.  By this logic alone ASICMiner has fucked his customers since June cause those USB's will never earn positive RoI.

How many USB's you got Xian??? Since my GPU running ~300MH is getting .0023 daily I'd say yours are getting .0026 a day each maximum.  40 would be ~.104 per day, so your 'every couple hours' means you have like 320-500 of them.  I am confused over the .1 pricing though, last I checked they were at ~.35.

Your estimations aren't realistic. You need to undershoot so that your estimates fall in line with reality.

What if everyone over-estimated?  You'd have a lot less unhappy people right now cause life would be better than they dreamed it would be.

If you overestimated then you would be wrong (as you are now) and everyone will have a positive outlook.

If you underestimate, and you are right, then everyone in the present will see this as a baseline for what is to come. Just make sure to create a *very reasonable* baseline.

Truer words are seldom spoken.  The unfortunate reality though is that most poeple understimate and are wrong, which is why the current insane growth = panic.  I'd rather paint a dreary picture of the future and be pleasantly suprised when it does not happen, then paint a rosy picture and end up feeling like the stock market just crashed and I'm standing on top of a building.

[PuertoLibre]

bcp19, My fellow shill in arms. I have to pat you on the back for doing all this effort to date. Now is the time for you to retire to BFL headquarters. They need you there to put away some dishes and dirty towels.

Don't worry, I will take over your hard job from this point on.

========================[Puts on Master SHILL Hat]=================
@ Detractors
I agree with everything you say, except, in cases where you say BFL is the shit! (read into that as you will!)

I understand your meaning, but I don't even have a BFL hat on at the moment.

Everyone is so blinded by BFL hate they cannot see the big picture.  While I predicted today to be up close to 1PH network speed, I'm really not off by much(Since the network was less than 150TH when I predicted it).  My 7PH prediction by Nov 1 is looking a bit shaky as more and more companies delay.

When the logic states that it is criminal for BFL to sell so much product that their customers cannot make a positive RoI in 90 days(read fucked them), where does that leave us today?  NO company can guarantee a positive RoI in 90 days, yet ONLY BFL is fucking customers.  By this logic alone ASICMiner has fucked his customers since June cause those USB's will never earn positive RoI.

How many USB's you got Xian??? Since my GPU running ~300MH is getting .0023 daily I'd say yours are getting .0026 a day each maximum.  40 would be ~.104 per day, so your 'every couple hours' means you have like 320-500 of them.  I am confused over the .1 pricing though, last I checked they were at ~.35.

Your estimations aren't realistic. You need to undershoot so that your estimates fall in line with reality.

What if everyone over-estimated?  You'd have a lot less unhappy people right now cause life would be better than they dreamed it would be.

If you overestimated then you would be wrong (as you are now) and everyone will have a positive outlook.

If you underestimate, and you are right, then everyone in the present will see this as a baseline for what is to come. Just make sure to create a *very reasonable* baseline.

Truer words are seldom spoken.  The unfortunate reality though is that most poeple understimate and are wrong, which is why the current insane growth = panic.  I'd rather paint a dreary picture of the future and be pleasantly suprised when it does not happen, then paint a rosy picture and end up feeling like the stock market just crashed and I'm standing on top of a building.

Well, you won't get any disagreement on that.

[Bicknellski]

Maybe we actually need a subforum for companies that are reputable and want to resolve issues and based on an agreed to set of business standards?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=282030.0

[mechs]

All this talk of ASICMiner product not making ROI is a little bit short-sighted, and leaves me a bit confused at times.

 Look at a timeline 275-360 days away and you begin to get a more reasonable picture, even including the difficulty increases.

 It's a bit amusing that I mumble to myself many times a day with pool payouts set at 0.1 BTC, that I'll say to "Ooh, just ROI'd on another Erupter USB..." (couple hours later) "Oooh ! I just ROI'd on another Erupter USB" (couple more hours later) "Oooh ! I just paid for another Erupter USB..." etc

 Maybe I'm missing something somewhere, but I've never been into Bitcoin mining for hopes of a quick ROI; it just happened to work out due to timing and persistence that I'm way in the black.

  I realize that ROIing on 0.1 BTC Erupters is a different matter entirely than ROIing on 2 BTC Erupters, but on a long enough time-line, they WILL pay for themselves. I've calculated that timeline to be about a year, and I'm OK with that all things considered.

 YMMV of course, but just wanted to offer a different perspective.

 *shrugs*

Xian,
  They absolutely will not pay for themselves ever at 0.35BTC each.  Even if you take the time out to infinity, the power costs will exceed the BTC produces at the current BTC/Fiat exchange rates.  I supposed if BTC valu increased significantly more that would change, but in that case you would still be better of just holding the BTC than buying the eruptors.

[Xian01]

I supposed if BTC value increased significantly more that would change, but in that case you would still be better of just holding the BTC than buying the eruptors.

 You are probably right. Not going to argue the point.

 Either way, I'm having fun

[bcp19]

I supposed if BTC value increased significantly more that would change, but in that case you would still be better of just holding the BTC than buying the eruptors.

 You are probably right. Not going to argue the point.

 Either way, I'm having fun

I have an interesting question for you:

We know the price of BTC was ~$6.50-7.00 on July 1, 2012 and that a 1.5TH mini-rig was selling for $29,899.  Let's call the BTC price at $6.50, which would be ~4600 BTC.  Your choices are to either Buy a mini-rig and wait for it to ship a year later or store your 4600 BTC until June 2013 when you can buy 2300 USB block erupters.  We know now the mini-rig order would ship on Aug 5th and the 2300 Block Erupters would be in hand within a week.  If these were your only choices, which do you feel is the better value?

[peonminer]

I supposed if BTC value increased significantly more that would change, but in that case you would still be better of just holding the BTC than buying the eruptors.

 You are probably right. Not going to argue the point.

 Either way, I'm having fun

I have an interesting question for you:

We know the price of BTC was ~$6.50-7.00 on July 1, 2012 and that a 1.5TH mini-rig was selling for $29,899.  Let's call the BTC price at $6.50, which would be ~4600 BTC.  Your choices are to either Buy a mini-rig and wait for it to ship a year later or store your 4600 BTC until June 2013 when you can buy 2300 USB block erupters.  We know now the mini-rig order would ship on Aug 5th and the 2300 Block Erupters would be in hand within a week.  If these were your only choices, which do you feel is the better value?

The first hind sight logic i've ever seen from bcp19... oh wait....

[bcp19]

I supposed if BTC value increased significantly more that would change, but in that case you would still be better of just holding the BTC than buying the eruptors.

 You are probably right. Not going to argue the point.

 Either way, I'm having fun

I have an interesting question for you:

We know the price of BTC was ~$6.50-7.00 on July 1, 2012 and that a 1.5TH mini-rig was selling for $29,899.  Let's call the BTC price at $6.50, which would be ~4600 BTC.  Your choices are to either Buy a mini-rig and wait for it to ship a year later or store your 4600 BTC until June 2013 when you can buy 2300 USB block erupters.  We know now the mini-rig order would ship on Aug 5th and the 2300 Block Erupters would be in hand within a week.  If these were your only choices, which do you feel is the better value?

The first hind sight logic i've ever seen from bcp19... oh wait....

It's a very simple question, can't you answer it?  We already know all the answers, so which do you feel was the better value?

[Jutarul]

Really, so you're claiming that 20 * 13 = 1500?  Wow...

the typo is irrelevant for the conclusion. It didn't lead to vastly false numbers.

But lets go back to the USD assessment.  The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies.  

No. An investment into bitcoin mining is a way to buy future bitcoins at current market price. Buyers of the August 2012 minirig bought the prospect of earning future bitcoins (>3000BTC) by spending bitcoins (3000BTC). The fact that they may have spent USD is irrelevant, because it is a different savings vehicle and looking at BTC/USD is only relevant for overhead costs (rent,electricity) which are not priced in bitcoin.
Due to delivery failures that prospect has shrunk to less than the bitcoins spent for buyers who haven't received any hardware to date. On top of that, buyers of ASICMINER now have the alternative to spent 420 BTC on an equivalent amount of hashing power - and that's where the profit loss becomes apparent, because hardware on hand is usually sold around prices similar to the expected ROI.

Once again, your entire premise is flawed.  If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire?  If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC?  You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why?  

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.

I understand that you would like to discredit the validity of DeathAndTaxes' assessment. However, this is not hindsight investing. That is market forces at play. Would the USD/BTC be $10/BTC right now, the eruptor blade would still cost 420 BTC, because that's what the expected ROI is in terms of future bitcoins.

I urge you, please don't try to misguide new people coming into the mining game by playing on their insufficient understanding between the relationship of the exchange rates vs. the viability of mining investments. Your company has done enough harm to the mining community by trapping/destroying a vast amount of capital with unfulfilled promises.

ADDENDUM: topic was moved: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283286.msg3029211#msg3029211

[Ytterbium]

We're talking about 100% accurate predictions, not speculation.  Get it straight and then come back and maybe we can have an adult conversation.  But until then, when you start off with your entire premise being unrelated to the topic your quoting, we might as well not even have the conversation.

My prediction of your failure to deliver a lot of hashing power was accurate enough for me to make a lot of money.  

The key phrase was:

why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC? You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why?  

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.

Right, an "asshole idiot" (or whatever profanity you intended - I suppose 'fuckhead' works too)  

The implication, I assume is that people who were able to predict the price increase in bitcoin and didn't buy a shitload of it were idiots.  Except the problem is that some people predicted both that the price would increase and that you would deliver what you sold them on time.  It's only their second prediction that failed. They didn't make any money because they believed they would deliver.  

On the other hand, I predicted you would fail, and because my prediction was correct I made a lot of money.

As far as having an adult conversation with you, that strikes me as highly unlikely.  And why would I even want too? You're a joke.

I think a lot of your detractors are people who lost a lot of money because they believed in you, and they hate you because of it. But for me it's the opposite.  I believed you would fail, and I made a lot of money because you did.  Really I should be thanking you.

The only reason I don't like you is because I feel bad for all the people you've fucked over.

[xstr8guy]

It is not even a prototype correct? No gerbers? No BOM even? Just a drawing... what more can you say about it? Other than taking specifications they claim it will have and doing an analysis and then determining whether or not it is a good buy correct?

There's a lot to consider.  Pre-orders are open now (Yes, I know BFL's history, no need to discuss further) and early adopters of new ASIC technology have often been greatly rewarded for taking some extra risk.  I'm taking that little extra risk and have converted an April pre-order for a Monarch.  And now I want to read what other people think, specifically about the Monarch and not about BFL's well-documented history.

And since when do we wait to talk about a future ASIC product?  It's pretty obvious to me that any new ASIC announcement generates lots of interest and is immediately a hot topic.

Given what Death is saying in a comparison of the Asicminer Blades vs. 2012 BFL Products that have yet to ship... you might want to really rethink whether or not the Monarch has any value other than a thought experiment into a PCIe miner, seems to be hard to say anymore than that right? Forgive me but doesn't BFL have a forum for all this information. Why would anyone come here to get updated info on this product should you not go to the source?

BitcoinTalk has a larger audience.  But I do read and post in BFL's forum too.  I like to get as much information as possible.

[Ytterbium]

...and early adopters of new ASIC technology have often been greatly rewarded for taking some extra risk...

People who bought B1 or B2 Avalons, or ASICMiner shares did.  Not anyone who bought BFL hardware (except possibly people who bought very early and paid in USD that they otherwise wouldn't have spent on bitcoins)

[Syke]

There's a lot to consider.  Pre-orders are open now (Yes, I know BFL's history, no need to discuss further) and early adopters of new ASIC technology have often been greatly rewarded for taking some extra risk.  I'm taking that little extra risk and have converted an April pre-order for a Monarch.  And now I want to read what other people think, specifically about the Monarch and not about BFL's well-documented history.

Let's assume that BFL does everything perfectly and ships the Monarch in Feb. It's overpriced. KnCMiner, HashFast, CoinTerra, and BitFury will have better products long before then.

[Bicknellski]

It is not even a prototype correct? No gerbers? No BOM even? Just a drawing... what more can you say about it? Other than taking specifications they claim it will have and doing an analysis and then determining whether or not it is a good buy correct?

There's a lot to consider.  Pre-orders are open now (Yes, I know BFL's history, no need to discuss further) and early adopters of new ASIC technology have often been greatly rewarded for taking some extra risk.  I'm taking that little extra risk and have converted an April pre-order for a Monarch.  And now I want to read what other people think, specifically about the Monarch and not about BFL's well-documented history.

And since when do we wait to talk about a future ASIC product?  It's pretty obvious to me that any new ASIC announcement generates lots of interest and is immediately a hot topic.

Given what Death is saying in a comparison of the Asicminer Blades vs. 2012 BFL Products that have yet to ship... you might want to really rethink whether or not the Monarch has any value other than a thought experiment into a PCIe miner, seems to be hard to say anymore than that right? Forgive me but doesn't BFL have a forum for all this information. Why would anyone come here to get updated info on this product should you not go to the source?

BitcoinTalk has a larger audience.  But I do read and post in BFL's forum too.  I like to get as much information as possible.

Yes larger and why we need to make sure that everyone is properly informed almost page per page on each thread in case they are new and miss the important tidbits that you might know but they may not. It be different say that a company was transparent and truthful in every post but obviously given what has happened in the past there are plenty of people looking out for the interests of the larger audience. Again if we had a subforum where information and the tone was PROFESSIONALLY kept then there would be no need to continually pop into a thread and set the record straight or inform people of the dangers.

You must recognize that and given there is NO INFO about this unit and that it is just claims and speculation at this post probably should be filed in a section that is not custom hardware but something that will be coming to market and warning labels BOLDLY affixed to it to protect people from the potential damages it may cause to the bitcoin economy because of past performance. We need a better system than we have currently for these sorts of posts from these types of companies but until that happens I guess we all have to deal with the discord it causes. If one is going to post vapourware... then you should be allowed to be highly skeptical on pretty much every page of the thread. Sorry it is only fair given the poor record for delivery.

[Bicknellski]

There's a lot to consider.  Pre-orders are open now (Yes, I know BFL's history, no need to discuss further) and early adopters of new ASIC technology have often been greatly rewarded for taking some extra risk.  I'm taking that little extra risk and have converted an April pre-order for a Monarch.  And now I want to read what other people think, specifically about the Monarch and not about BFL's well-documented history.

Let's assume that BFL does everything perfectly and ships the Monarch in Feb. It's overpriced. KnCMiner, HashFast, CoinTerra, and BitFury will have better products long before then.

Potential heat and power concerns as well given BFL has failed each time they have come to market... another big what if they mess it up again?