[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[Bargraphics]

ed and not some backdoor bitfury deal to appease the shareholders for a tad longer.

I guess we'll know in Three Weeks™

If Ken wanted to appease shareholders with meaningless amounts of hash power, then he would have never had the Avalon chips refunded.

I'm not going to argue one way or another, this has and seemingly always will be a waiting game.

Everyone KNEW about the Avalon Chip orders, the price of BTC was going up, to get a full refund in BTC was the only move that made sense.

Using that refund to buy CEX.IO shares would buy some time is all I'm implying (Which may or may not be true).

[1714890559]

1714890559

[Ozymandias]

ed and not some backdoor bitfury deal to appease the shareholders for a tad longer.

I guess we'll know in Three Weeks™

If Ken wanted to appease shareholders with meaningless amounts of hash power, then he would have never had the Avalon chips refunded.

I'm not going to argue one way or another, this has and seemingly always will be a waiting game.

Everyone KNEW about the Avalon Chip orders, the price of BTC was going up, to get a full refund in BTC was the only move that made sense.

Using that refund to buy CEX.IO shares would buy some time is all I'm implying (Which may or may not be true).

This is absolutely correct, I'm actually excited because soon we will know, for better or worse, the legitimacy of this operation (as per my posting history, I have nearly always been on the side leaning towards legitimacy"). Certainly going to be an exciting couple of weeks/months!

[finlof]

i CAN confirm that i received this from Ken in a PM.  assume what you want to assume from this reply.  cheerleaders will cheer it as proof that it's eAsic chips that he cant talk about cause of NDA, trolls will say he's being ambiguous cause he hiding the truth about buying from other companies, and i say that it gives us no real info either way.  it's just Ken's classic communication.

can you confirm or deny whether the additional hashing (not the klondikes or the initial avalons) are from Activemining chips (samples/demos/etc) or whether they are from 3rd party hardware (KNC, Bitfury, new Avalons, etc)?

We will be making major announcements in November.

[drawingthesun]

Financial report?

[Ozymandias]

What are the current plans for chip development?
ActiveMining is developing a 28nm Bitcoin mining chip using eASIC.

• Chip samples delivered in 9 weeks;
• Low-volume chip production starting in 12 weeks, using an e-beam process;
• Normal volume chip production starting in 16-18 weeks.

So if we set our start point as a week before September 4th (when the eASIC press release occured), we would now be in exactly week 9. If this is in fact the case, then low-volume production should happen in the third week of november and normal volume around the holiday season of december. If we're good, Santa (or whichever obese, brightly colored man breaks into YOUR home in the dead of night in the winter) might leave a little extra in our stockings (or similar footwear).

Any asic specialists want to inform the ignorant, myself included, about what kind of volumes are considered "low"? A few hundred? A thousand?

For reference, with a current network hashrate of ~4ph/s, it would take roughly 2000-2500 chips per percentage of the network. Obviously difficultly is not stagnant, and is in fact doubling a little faster than every month. With a 16ph/s network around the new year (2 doublings), each percentage of the network would require 8000-10,000 chips, or (iirc there are 2,500 chips to a standard wafer of 28nm chips), we would need a mere 40 wafers to corner 10% of the market.

After some more basic research, I'm finding that a conservative estimate for the cost of a wafer is ~$4,000. Thus 40 of them would cost $160,000 which is just about HALF of what the avalon refund was worth (~1500btc*200usd/btc = $300,000). What I'm seeing, if all of my assumptions are correct/close (which is an if I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on) is that we can order ~100 wafers using our avalon refund and pre-order funds.
100 wafers = 250,000 chips * (0.95 to account for defective chips) = 237,500 chips * 16-20gh/s = 3.8-4.75ph/s to be distributed between our own mining farm and hardware sales.

If any of the above is wrong I'd welcome corrections.

[sparky999]

Seems like a good time to start speculating on Active Mining's total deployed hash rate will be on Christmas Day - I'm shooting for 1PH

[Ozymandias]

Seems like a good time to start speculating on Active Mining's total deployed hash rate will be on Christmas Day - I'm shooting for 1PH

Does deployed mean in total (hardware sales + farm) or just farm? If in total, I would still consider that to be a bit on the high side (my own estimate based mostly on guesswork is around 500th/s) as normal volume processing would have only just begun.

[kleeck]

What are the current plans for chip development?
ActiveMining is developing a 28nm Bitcoin mining chip using eASIC.

• Chip samples delivered in 9 weeks;
• Low-volume chip production starting in 12 weeks, using an e-beam process;
• Normal volume chip production starting in 16-18 weeks.

So if we set our start point as a week before September 4th (when the eASIC press release occured), we would now be in exactly week 9. If this is in fact the case, then low-volume production should happen in the third week of november and normal volume around the holiday season of december. If we're good, Santa (or whichever obese, brightly colored man breaks into YOUR home in the dead of night in the winter) might leave a little extra in our stockings (or similar footwear).

Any asic specialists want to inform the ignorant, myself included, about what kind of volumes are considered "low"? A few hundred? A thousand?

For reference, with a current network hashrate of ~4ph/s, it would take roughly 2000-2500 chips per percentage of the network. Obviously difficultly is not stagnant, and is in fact doubling a little faster than every month. With a 16ph/s network around the new year (2 doublings), each percentage of the network would require 8000-10,000 chips, or (iirc there are 2,500 chips to a standard wafer of 28nm chips), we would need a mere 40 wafers to corner 10% of the market.

After some more basic research, I'm finding that a conservative estimate for the cost of a wafer is ~$4,000. Thus 40 of them would cost $160,000 which is just about HALF of what the avalon refund was worth (~1500btc*200usd/btc = $300,000). What I'm seeing, if all of my assumptions are correct/close (which is an if I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on) is that we can order ~100 wafers using our avalon refund and pre-order funds.
100 wafers = 250,000 chips * (0.95 to account for defective chips) = 237,500 chips * 16-20gh/s = 3.8-4.75ph/s to be distributed between our own mining farm and hardware sales.

If any of the above is wrong I'd welcome corrections.

Here's what I got:

• 16gh per chip
• 256 gh/s per board
• 16 chips per board

40,000 (1%TNH@4PH) / 256 = 156.25 (boards needed at 4PHTNH)

156.25 * 16 = 2500 chips. So, yep. Checks out. The question now is, "How many can we afford?"

[thefunkybits]

Seems like a good time to start speculating on Active Mining's total deployed hash rate will be on Christmas Day - I'm shooting for 1PH

We really should be aiming for 1 PH to stay relevant (even though it seems extreme)

[superduh]

Seems like a good time to start speculating on Active Mining's total deployed hash rate will be on Christmas Day - I'm shooting for 1PH

We really should be aiming for 1 PH to stay relevant (even though it seems extreme)

1ph mining/sales that'll give about 15-20% of network by end of year

[Ozymandias]

Seems like a good time to start speculating on Active Mining's total deployed hash rate will be on Christmas Day - I'm shooting for 1PH

We really should be aiming for 1 PH to stay relevant (even though it seems extreme)

1ph mining/sales that'll give about 15-20% of network by end of year

That is only correct if network hashrate increases by 50% in the next 2 months, highly unlikely. 1 ph/s in december would give us closer to 5% of the network, which is still a very good thing (5% of 3600btc/day*7days = 0.000126btc/share/week) or 12-15% WEEKLY return at these prices until the original 0.0025btc/share are paid off)

[Bargraphics]

That is only correct if network hashrate increases by 50% in the next 2 months, highly unlikely.

The hashrate by Jan 1st will be >8PH

[bobboooiie]

Seems like a good time to start speculating on Active Mining's total deployed hash rate will be on Christmas Day - I'm shooting for 1PH

We really should be aiming for 1 PH to stay relevant (even though it seems extreme)

1ph mining/sales that'll give about 15-20% of network by end of year

not it wouldnt

[superduh]

Seems like a good time to start speculating on Active Mining's total deployed hash rate will be on Christmas Day - I'm shooting for 1PH

We really should be aiming for 1 PH to stay relevant (even though it seems extreme)

1ph mining/sales that'll give about 15-20% of network by end of year

not it wouldnt

my bad................ 10-15% heh

[kingcrimson]

What are the current plans for chip development?
ActiveMining is developing a 28nm Bitcoin mining chip using eASIC.

• Chip samples delivered in 9 weeks;
• Low-volume chip production starting in 12 weeks, using an e-beam process;
• Normal volume chip production starting in 16-18 weeks.

So if we set our start point as a week before September 4th (when the eASIC press release occured), we would now be in exactly week 9. If this is in fact the case, then low-volume production should happen in the third week of november and normal volume around the holiday season of december. If we're good, Santa (or whichever obese, brightly colored man breaks into YOUR home in the dead of night in the winter) might leave a little extra in our stockings (or similar footwear).

Any asic specialists want to inform the ignorant, myself included, about what kind of volumes are considered "low"? A few hundred? A thousand?

For reference, with a current network hashrate of ~4ph/s, it would take roughly 2000-2500 chips per percentage of the network. Obviously difficultly is not stagnant, and is in fact doubling a little faster than every month. With a 16ph/s network around the new year (2 doublings), each percentage of the network would require 8000-10,000 chips, or (iirc there are 2,500 chips to a standard wafer of 28nm chips), we would need a mere 40 wafers to corner 10% of the market.

After some more basic research, I'm finding that a conservative estimate for the cost of a wafer is ~$4,000. Thus 40 of them would cost $160,000 which is just about HALF of what the avalon refund was worth (~1500btc*200usd/btc = $300,000). What I'm seeing, if all of my assumptions are correct/close (which is an if I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on) is that we can order ~100 wafers using our avalon refund and pre-order funds.
100 wafers = 250,000 chips * (0.95 to account for defective chips) = 237,500 chips * 16-20gh/s = 3.8-4.75ph/s to be distributed between our own mining farm and hardware sales.

If any of the above is wrong I'd welcome corrections.

Here's what I got:

• 16gh per chip
• 256 gh/s per board
• 16 chips per board

40,000 (1%TNH@4PH) / 256 = 156.25 (boards needed at 4PHTNH)

156.25 * 16 = 2500 chips. So, yep. Checks out. The question now is, "How many can we afford?"

$1.5 million worth

[granitemouse]

This is the kind of stuff that I like to read here. So much better than FUD, arguing, and insults.

[tom.hashemi]

This is the kind of stuff that I like to read here. So much better than FUD, arguing, and insults.

100% agree

[kslaughter]

Due to the Klondikes showing up this week after being ordered for 5 Months and the deployment of other resources for mining, we are going to delay our
P & L and Balance sheet reports until the 15th of November.

[zumzero]

Due to the Klondikes showing up this week after being ordered for 5 Months and the deployment of other resources for mining, we are going to delay our
P & L and Balance sheet reports until the 15th of November.

Not what I was hoping for but I'm glad you have explained your reasons for not making that self imposed deadline.  It's so much better to keep us informed even if it is not what we are wanting to hear.  Ta.

[tom.hashemi]

Due to the Klondikes showing up this week after being ordered for 5 Months and the deployment of other resources for mining, we are going to delay our
P & L and Balance sheet reports until the 15th of November.

Not what I was hoping for but I'm glad you have explained your reasons for not making that self imposed deadline.  It's so much better to keep us informed even if it is not what we are wanting to hear.  Ta.

This is a bit cheeky... 2 weeks to sort something that was meant to happen today?