Using latest update from Ken,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297543.msg3220847#msg3220847Using new information in 'Details' on CryptoTrade
https://crypto-trade.com/tradex/ipo/amc_btcUsing and modifying some of the detail as set out by 4ju5tice
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297503.msg3741018#msg3741018OK so to begin we assume Ken is giving a fair a reasonable assessment of the current state of ACtM. We do that because Ken is
not canvassing for any more shareholder funds, he is
not asking anyone for money so has zero benefit in exaggerating potential future sales figures or the current state of ACtM finances or technical progress.
Where do we start - well I'd posit that if we can establish the position of ACtM by end January we can use that as a basis for forward projection. If we know the size of our farm by then we can see if it is large enough to become self-funding for expansion considering rising network difficulty.
So, ACtM has:
'2.3 Million in liquid assets, this includes Bitcoins, Cash from VMC, and AMC purchased ActiveMining shares'
and
'As of this writing we have over 2.1 Million in sales for November, this excludes any fraudulent sales,'
So we can expect that by the time we are a few weeks into January we will have a fund of over 4Mill USD to spend solely on the ACtM mining farm.
Therefore by end of January we can expect to have in the region of 40 fully deployed 24.5TH/s machines on our farm. (The machines are retailing at 233k. I would expect cost-price would be sub 50% of retail, so at 90k per machine that gives us 400k change for install costs from a 4Mill fund).
In 4ju5tice's table, month 3 will be January so I am estimating network hash to be around 11PH/s by January end.
24.5TH/s X 40 = 980TH/s which is 8.9% of total hash.
So again taking into account rising difficulty through February, the ACtM farm will mine approx 7% of total BTC in that month which would be 7% of 100,800 (28day month) which is 7056 BTC.
BTC by end of February is likely to be 2,000 USD so 7056X2,000 = 14,112,00 USD.
With 50% of that going to shareholders that would mean we have 7Mill USD from farm profits to fund the next months expansion to the ACtM mining farm. Lets assume continued miner sales completely cover the running costs of the farm (sales are 2Mill per month right now).
So without going into too much detail you can easily see that with a 40% network increase per month and a 75% increase in funds per month the farm is comfortably self-sustaining month on month with a BTC price of 2k USD.
Now not only is the farm self-sustaining in those circumstances shareholders will be getting 50% of the 7056BTC mined each month which will amount to 0.0003528 per share (0.705 USD per share).
So if you hold 1,000 ACtM shares you will be making 705 USD per month come February.
So, I think it is easy to establish that with the initial funds that we have access to and the cost-price machines we can source from VMC that by February we will have a mining farm generating 7% of the monthly BTC. That profit will be enough to both pay share holders good divs and enlarge the farm at pace with the growth in network hash difficulty.
We haven't finished yet, now we move on to the ASIC chip-only sales estimated under 'AMC 12 Months Projections:' in 'Details' on CT.
'AMC through VMC expects to sale 1 Million of its 28nm Bitcoin Mining Chips in 2014. After AMC recoups its
NRE of ~1 Million dollars, then AMC expects to receive ~40 Million dollars in profits for in VMC subsidary payment in 2014.'
So we have an estimated 40Million USD
profits from sales in 2014. So after all VMC costs of production for all customers (mining machines and ASIC chips) we have 20Mill for investors and 20Mill to add to the mining farm investment fund.
So lets add approx 2Mill USD to shareholder divs. We don't know what BTC figure Ken is using for the prediction so we will stay at 2K. That would be another 1,000btc for shareholders each month taking monthly divs from 0.0003528 up to 0.0004528BTC per share.
And finally the extra 2Mill USD (approx) per month profit going to the mining farm will represent another 20 24.5TH/s mining machines
a month leaving 200k per month for running costs for those 20 machines.
In summary then, by end January 2014 we will have in place a self-sustaining mining farm generating 7% of global hash through February. Profits will be enough to pay divs of over 0.7USD per share in February and also over-invest in the farm to bring machine growth well above network growth. With 75% growth in machines and only 40% in network we should comfortably have an increased share of total network each new month. Online sales will generate 2Mill per month USD which is enough to build and run another 20 24.5TH/s machines per month or cover entire installation and running costs of ACtM mining farm.
Forcast for divs from Feb (rising as the farm output increases above network rate by approx 20% per month.)
Feb 0.0004528
March 0.00054336
April 0.000652
May approx 0.0007824
Shareholder guarantee of 0.0025 per share met by May, so following public divs drop by 60%June 0.0003756
July 0.0004507
August 0.0005408
Sep 0.000649
Oct 0.000779
Nov 0.0009348
Dec 0.001122
Total divs per publicly held share for next 12months = 0.0073519BTC. That is with a constant BTC price of 2,000USD and a 20% increase in mining farm output (mined BTC) month on month.
With a BTC price averaging 4k USD expect mining farm size to grow through increased re-invest funds and hence final yearly div payout could be +75%
With BTC averaging 6k USD through the year, conservatively expect div payout to be + 125% of above estimate.So with a yearly div payout of anything from 0.0074 to 0.018 BTC we would now estimate
share price target using Dividend/Yield ratio. In a penny-stock D/Y ratios of 3:1 are common. i.e you invest 300dollars and recieve 100 dollars back in divs in year 1 - that is an excellent return but it reflects a high risk investment as the company could fold.
In more established and safer companies a D/Y ratio of 10:1 to 30:1 is acceptable. At 10:1 100 dollars invested will net you 10% in divs in year 1. OK this is the BTC ecomony, there
is risk so as an example ASICMINER-PT operated at around 3:1 D/Y ratio at it's height. I think ACtM is already a far more open company than AM-PT and come Spring will have an established reputation, full accounts and full legitimacy. So a D/Y ratio of 5:1 is reasonable, even conservative.
OK so serious investors will be doing these sorts of calculations and estimates in any company or project they want to put serious money into. There are masses of big BTC holders who would jump at the chance to invest in a safe company that offered a D/Y ratio of 5:1. It would mean that if they put 500BTC into ACtM stock they would at year end recieve 100BTC in divs and still hold 500BTC in a stock of a company that is growing month on month.
So with 12month divs at 0.0074BTC (the payout with BTC at only 2k USD) a serious investor would be happy to pay 0.037 per share.
That is not conjecture - it is business.
So I think the above estimate of current situation and the forecast is reasonable and in most areas conservative. We have a safety margin in all areas of the business with for example the possibility of lower sales being covered adequately by the self-sustaining mining farm. So with the business progressing as predicted (by Ken) we should have a target share price of 0.037-0.05 BTC as this is what big investors will be happy to pay. Price will go this high I think it's a 95% certainty. And by May the 0.0025 guarantee will be paid out. That's currently 2.5 USD per share.
If BTC goes above 2k USD expect share prices north of 0.05 BTC. Edited - to change div figures and change 'P/E' ratio to 'D/Y'
