[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[MilkyWayMasta]

You didn't divide the coins mined by 50%. Should be 3528? 0.0003528 per share.
Still very good and positive. The only thing is we need the chips!

Thanks again Jimmy I've now adjusted for the 50% mined-coin split, a silly mistake.

I actually thought the final share price of 0.06 was a bit high, as last time I did these calculations it was nearer 0.04 BTC.

So the amendment means the 0.0025BTC guarantee to shareholders will be paid out in full by May not April.

Total yearly divs are conservatively estimated to be from 0.0074 to 0.018 BTC - depending on BTC price.

So the target share price with a Price/Earnings ratio of 5:1 and BTC at 2,000USD is 0.037 BTC per share.

Just going to run these numbers real quick for you:

.037 BTC * 25,000,000 = 925,000 BTC. @ $2,000 that is a fiat evaluation of $1,850,000,000.00.

Cheers.

And SnapChat turned down $3,000,000,000.00 from Facebook and $4,000,000,000.00 from Google.

[sparky999]

I guess I was completely spot on with this then? Since it was deleted? There was literally no other reason to delete my speculation (which I said it was) unless it was a little too accurate for comfort.

IntelliHash

I can't see how intellihash could possibly work... the only thing it possibly could be is an over-clocking utility. It cannot change a chip (Ken said it would work on avalons too), it cannot fake proof-of-work (and if it can, bitcoin is broken), so the only option is an over-clocking utility. Which would be coherent with the 20% increase quoted, as that would be about the max you could reliably overclock.

TLDR; IntelliHash is, in my judgement, an overclocking utility.

Did you read that old KnC article? They got their 30% performance boost from cgminer tweaking. If this is the case, then the delay with the chips is unrelated to the Intellihash development.

except Ken has explicitly said that the chips will be late due to alterations needed for Intellihash. He has also said that Intellihash could be a game changer for ActM, I don't thin he would use this language lightly in a formal update about the company.

Upon further review, you are correct:

Intellihash(tm)

Intellihash is our new trademark for our new Bitcoin mining software which gives up to a 20% increase in hashing speed and has the possibility to increase the speed of our mining machines as the difficulty goes up.  We have had to modify the software in our chips to make it work with our new software.  The chips are going to be late; however, our new Intellihash software could be a game changer for the company.

I don't believe I'll be talking about this on a public forum anymore in respect of Ken's wishes. I'm satisfied that Intellihash is real and will be very good for our miners.

Agreed. I believe this was Ken's way of telling us that we are going to be knocking out some of the most ground breaking bitcoin mining machines ever seen with out trying to give too much away to our competitors.

Ken isn't just 'the boss' he's 'a boss' and will make himself and others very wealthy if they are prepared to hold on for the ride.

[JimmyJazz]

You didn't divide the coins mined by 50%. Should be 3528? 0.0003528 per share.
Still very good and positive. The only thing is we need the chips!

Thanks again Jimmy I've now adjusted for the 50% mined-coin split, a silly mistake.

I actually thought the final share price of 0.06 was a bit high, as last time I did these calculations it was nearer 0.04 BTC.

So the amendment means the 0.0025BTC guarantee to shareholders will be paid out in full by May not April.

Total yearly divs are conservatively estimated to be from 0.0074 to 0.018 BTC - depending on BTC price.

So the target share price with a Price/Earnings ratio of 5:1 and BTC at 2,000USD is 0.037 BTC per share.

Just going to run these numbers real quick for you:

.037 BTC * 25,000,000 = 925,000 BTC. @ $2,000 that is a fiat evaluation of $1,850,000,000.00.

Cheers.

This is not your normal company. Its a bitcoin mining company. With the price of bitcoin going up of course the company could be valued at that. This is not something the markets have ever seen before. People within the bitcoin space will see ACTM as a solid investment.
As said before Snapchat and Facebook have valuations of billions. If you think Bitcoin has a positive future then why shouldnt a mining company with 7% of the market not be valued in such a way?

However with all that being said - lets not get ahead of ourselfs. We still have no chips and no proof of hardware being shipped.
Also 7% of the market would be great but it is far far off - But not impossible if we do get chips and use the funds that we have at our disposal. As Ken has said he wants to make the biggest mining farm in the world. If he will is debatable, but at least we know that when he has the hardware at his disposal he will go all out to take a huge chunk of what will be soon a multi billion dollar mining market.

[Stuartuk]

Just going to run these numbers real quick for you:

.037 BTC * 25,000,000 = 925,000 BTC. @ $2,000 that is a fiat evaluation of $1,850,000,000.00.

Yes you are absolutely correct, that is 1.85 Bill USD - why wouldn't a business running the largest BTC mining farm in the world have a Market Cap of 1.85 Bill USD? ACtM would be considered a 'Small Cap' company at that level.

Let's look at the recent example of Twitter with a Market Cap of 26 Bill USD - that's 14X the above estimated valuation for ACtM. Twitter forecast profits are estimated to be 200Million USD in 2015. (This year and next they are expected to make a loss.) Earnings per share are expected to be 0.17 USD in 2015, so you could expect a dividend payment of 0.1 USD per share. ACtM will be paying out 0.71USD per share in month 1.

So Twitter would have 14X our Market Cap yet paying out in 2015 just 1/84th what ACtM will in divs in year 1. I think that suggests a Market Cap of 1.85Bill USD is actually conservative.



Lets look at it from another direction - ACtM can generate 130,000 BTC (10% of annual total) in the first year if we start hashing at 8% of network with 40 machines and build on that up to 12%+ of total network by year end. The maths I posted prove we have the opportunity to do that with cost price chips from eASIC and a cutting edge 24.5TH/s rack miner.
130,000 at 2k is 260Million dollars from the farm. We add 40Mill in chip and miner profits to reach 300Mill revenue in year 1 with 150Million paid out in divs.


So let's calculate Dividend Yield from that estimate. 0.0073519/0.037X100=19.87%
You will get only 6% Dividend Yield on average from any SP500 company with a similar Market Cap (around 2BillUSD).

These are the figures you need to explore. You can't just say 'Oh that sounds unreasonable' and dismiss estimates based on your prejudices. A Dividend Yield of close to 20% is exceptional for any Small Cap company.

[tom.hashemi]

Just going to run these numbers real quick for you:

.037 BTC * 25,000,000 = 925,000 BTC. @ $2,000 that is a fiat evaluation of $1,850,000,000.00.

Yes you are absolutely correct, that is 1.85 Bill USD - why wouldn't a business running the largest BTC mining farm in the world have a Market Cap of 1.85 Bill USD? ACtM would be considered a 'Small Cap' company at that level.

Let's look at the recent example of Twitter with a Market Cap of 26 Bill USD - that's 14X the above estimated valuation for ACtM. Twitter forecast profits are estimated to be 200Million USD in 2015. (This year and next they are expected to make a loss.) Earnings per share are expected to be 0.17 USD in 2015, so you could expect a dividend payment of 0.1 USD per share. ACtM will be paying out 0.71USD per share in month 1.

So Twitter would have 14X our Market Cap yet paying out in 2015 just 1/84th what ACtM will in divs in year 1. I think that suggests a Market Cap of 1.85Bill USD is actually conservative.



Lets look at it from another direction - ACtM can generate 130,000 BTC (10% of annual total) in the first year if we start hashing at 8% of network with 40 machines and build on that up to 12%+ of total network by year end. The maths I posted prove we have the opportunity to do that with cost price chips from eASIC and a cutting edge 24.5TH/s rack miner.
130,000 at 2k is 260Million dollars from the farm. We add 40Mill in chip and miner profits to reach 300Mill revenue in year 1 with 150Million paid out in divs.


So let's calculate Dividend Yield from that estimate. 0.0073519/0.037X100=19.87%
You will get only 6% Dividend Yield on average from any SP500 company with a similar Market Cap (around 2BillUSD).

These are the figures you need to explore. You can't just say 'Oh that sounds unreasonable' and dismiss estimates based on your prejudices. A Dividend Yield of close to 20% is exceptional for any Small Cap company.

If you are correct, I'll give you ten bucks.

[JimmyJazz]

...
This is not your normal company. Its a bitcoin mining company. With the price of bitcoin going up of course the company could be valued at that. This is not something the markets have ever seen before. People within the bitcoin space will see ACTM as a solid investment.
As said before Snapchat and Facebook have valuations of billions. If you think Bitcoin has a positive future then why shouldnt a mining company with 7% of the market not be valued in such a way?
...

Perhaps. But let's get back to the topic of this thread -- Active Mining, a company with ~0% of the market.  And an empty garage with a 70s Dodge.
Largest mining farm indeed

Why don't you quote the second part of my post you fuckin donut.

'However with all that being said - lets not get ahead of ourselfs. We still have no chips and no proof of hardware being shipped.
Also 7% of the market would be great but it is far far off - But not impossible if we do get chips and use the funds that we have at our disposal. As Ken has said he wants to make the biggest mining farm in the world. If he will is debatable, but at least we know that when he has the hardware at his disposal he will go all out to take a huge chunk of what will be soon a multi billion dollar mining market.'

[JimmyJazz]

Could we go from this,



to this

[Vigil]

Crumbs has a point here... at the moment we have nothing and there is still a long way between us having nothing and having anything at all. Not saying it isn't going to happen, it just that we don't have much to guarantee that we will have anything. Having said that, I believe Ken is trying to make this happen and obviously hope he is successful.

[JoTheKhan]

Crumbs has a point here... at the moment we have nothing and there is still a long way between us having nothing and having anything at all. Not saying it isn't going to happen, it just that we don't have much to guarantee that we will have anything. Having said that, I believe Ken is trying to make this happen and obviously hope he is successful.

Yes he does have a point. The same point he has had for he last month or so. The same point everyone else has. This discussion seems unnecessary seeing as how we've had it about 100 other times already.

[JimmyJazz]

...
This is not your normal company. Its a bitcoin mining company. With the price of bitcoin going up of course the company could be valued at that. This is not something the markets have ever seen before. People within the bitcoin space will see ACTM as a solid investment.
As said before Snapchat and Facebook have valuations of billions. If you think Bitcoin has a positive future then why shouldnt a mining company with 7% of the market not be valued in such a way?
...

Perhaps. But let's get back to the topic of this thread -- Active Mining, a company with ~0% of the market.  And an empty garage with a 70s Dodge.
Largest mining farm indeed

Why don't you quote the second part of my post you fuckin donut.

'However with all that being said - lets not get ahead of ourselfs. We still have no chips and no proof of hardware being shipped.
Also 7% of the market would be great but it is far far off - But not impossible if we do get chips and use the funds that we have at our disposal. As Ken has said he wants to make the biggest mining farm in the world. If he will is debatable, but at least we know that when he has the hardware at his disposal he will go all out to take a huge chunk of what will be soon a multi billion dollar mining market.'

O.  Ok.  In other words, if Ken had the hardware, he'd have the biggest mine in the world.  But he doesn't.  So he don't.
If you're going to pull random numbers, why settle for 7%?  Why not 70%?  Hell, why not 170%?  Why let mathematical laws limit your imagination?
You fucking doughnut

You obv cant read, I'm not saying its a guarantee - far from it.

So why are you here then ya donuty cunt.

[somestranger]

Do you reckon crumbs has a job? Looking at his general statistics page, it seems he posts throughout his waking hours...

No. In one of his posts he alluded to being Bitcoin wealthy which allows him to troll forums all day.

[Stuartuk]

Facebook used to have three members. Twitter used to have 10.

Don't look at what we have deployed, look at our assets - the chip, the software, our 4Mill in funds and our supplier eASIC who have just taken 23Mill in investment capital, are specialists in fast to market chips and who have just taken an ex-Apple Exec onto their board.

http://www.easic.com/former-apple-and-broadcom-executive-dr-edward-h-frank-joins-easic-board-of-directors/

[stenkross]

Here's one thing I don't get.

Once Ken's 15M shares will start recieving divs, the public 10M shares will only get 20% of the total company profit.
Since 50% is re-invested, and Ken owns 60% of the shares, 50% x 40% = 20%.

Or did I missunderstand something?

[Stuartuk]

Here's one thing I don't get.

Once Ken's 15M shares will start recieving divs, the public 10M shares will only get 20% of the total company profit.
Since 50% is re-invested, and Ken owns 60% of the shares, 50% x 40% = 20%.

Or did I missunderstand something?

That's correct as long as the reinvest figure stays at 50%. If BTC rises beyond 2K the reinvest percentage can come down to below 50% as more FIAT is generated by fewer of the mined coins.

We get 50% of profits until 0.0025 is paid per share, then at that point we get 20% and Ken gets 30%.

20% is still a big deal from a farm generating 10% of global hash and a successful online mining rig and ASIC chip sales business.

Edit - or if you see the reinvest fund as expenses we actually get 40% of company profits - that is technically more correct.
Edit 2 - so we get 100% of company profits untill 0.0025 is paid out.

[SebastianJu]

So one update and the clouds are gone again? And in 3 days its back to old right? Its so easy to move atmosphere in here.

Whats your bet on the valuation of shares on crypto-trade? Where will it settle after some days?

This is quite clearly not a scam anyone who really thinks that is insane. A scammer does not pay out $500k+ in dividends.

You obviously never heard of ponzis. The business model is to promise some percent per week. The
issuer then starts to pay out pennies until people believe him. At one point he stops paying out and keeps what he has. Pirateat40 did it the same way.
So its a perfectly fine thing for a scam to pay out. I dont believe ActM is a scam though.

[JoTheKhan]

Since tomorrow is Wednesday, should we expect and announcement from Ken. Or does this trend of Wednesday announcements start next week?

[RoadStress]

I guess I was completely spot on with this then? Since it was deleted? There was literally no other reason to delete my speculation (which I said it was) unless it was a little too accurate for comfort.

IntelliHash

I can't see how intellihash could possibly work... the only thing it possibly could be is an over-clocking utility. It cannot change a chip (Ken said it would work on avalons too), it cannot fake proof-of-work (and if it can, bitcoin is broken), so the only option is an over-clocking utility. Which would be coherent with the 20% increase quoted, as that would be about the max you could reliably overclock.

TLDR; IntelliHash is, in my judgement, an overclocking utility.

Did you read that old KnC article? They got their 30% performance boost from cgminer tweaking. If this is the case, then the delay with the chips is unrelated to the Intellihash development.

except Ken has explicitly said that the chips will be late due to alterations needed for Intellihash. He has also said that Intellihash could be a game changer for ActM, I don't thin he would use this language lightly in a formal update about the company.

Upon further review, you are correct:

Intellihash(tm)

Intellihash is our new trademark for our new Bitcoin mining software which gives up to a 20% increase in hashing speed and has the possibility to increase the speed of our mining machines as the difficulty goes up.  We have had to modify the software in our chips to make it work with our new software.  The chips are going to be late; however, our new Intellihash software could be a game changer for the company.

I don't believe I'll be talking about this on a public forum anymore in respect of Ken's wishes. I'm satisfied that Intellihash is real and will be very good for our miners.

Agreed. I believe this was Ken's way of telling us that we are going to be knocking out some of the most ground breaking bitcoin mining machines ever seen with out trying to give too much away to our competitors.

Ken isn't just 'the boss' he's 'a boss' and will make himself and others very wealthy if they are prepared to hold on for the ride.

Can't wait for that!

Your post is just too good!

[shrodes]

Since tomorrow is Wednesday, should we expect and announcement from Ken. Or does this trend of Wednesday announcements start next week?

Today is Wednesday in all the important places   

[zumzero]

You guys can argue figures all you want with your fancy percentages, but at the end of the day there's going to be more dividends flowing into shareholders wallets than all the mail in crumbs' bitcointalk inbox.

** A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by a Bitcoin Forum moderator. Posts are most frequently deleted because they are off-topic, though they can also be deleted for other reasons. In the future, please avoid posting things that need to be deleted. **


*super lolz*

[zumzero]

By the same token, I wonder if StuartUK has a job, or real life friends. After all, he posts more drivel than crumbs, more often.

Do you reckon crumbs has a job? Looking at his general statistics page, it seems he posts throughout his waking hours...

Lorenzo, why don't you make a contribution instead of insulting people?

I'm trying to get a visit to Ken arranged which could result in the permanent voluntary removal of the major trolls in this thread.

Stuartuk has made a real effort to present and share a detailed analysis of the business, which has stimulated discussion.

Numerous other investors contribute substantial information without speculation so ask yourself, what do you bring to the table?

Please get over your differences with people and start acting like a responsible shareholder because the tone of this thread can either eat into your profits or help generate them.