Lastly, this thread is not in the speculation sub-forum.
i would ask that you be respectful to others who have opinions different than yours. your passion and eloquence concerning your opinion is morphing into "preaching". i would submit that your arguments are speculation as well. no one knows exactly what will happen here.
quoting yourself doesn't engender any confidence in me. no offense.
Gold
is entering a parabolic move, but it has done so numerous times. For this to be a long-term blow-off,
Martin Armstrong points at a yearly close
above ~USD$2,500/oz. I agree with that.
speculation.
In the virtual world, it will act in conjunction with Bitcoin (or whatever appropriate crypto-currency dominates) to form a focal point, a bridge between the purely abstract and the contemporary physical realm. I know that's starting to sound like a page out of Thor comics, but the lines delineating the perception between what we experience directly and what is purely abstract are blurring. You can choose to look at Bitcoin (virtual) as a digital representation of gold, or of gold (real) as a physical manifestation of Bitcoin. They act like anchor points.
i don't think so. to argue that BOTH will be successful isn't reasonable by my estimation. it will be one or the other and i'd rather invest in the undervalued asset; bitcoin. my opinion.
If a balloon is held very deep underwater for a long time, it might be easy to forget how deep it is from where it normally sits. When that balloon is finally released, it will continue up until it reaches equilibrium at the surface. Without having familiarity with the point of equilibrium, that action could seem to defy reason. Gold is still very deep underwater.
this is true IF you believe the gold price has been suppressed. while there are very suspicious signs this might be the case (i'm familiar with the arguments: naked shorting on Comex by JPM, GS, huge paper values related to bullion, multiple gold claims on bullion, suppressed gold lease rates, futures backwardation, etc) one cannot ignore the fact that you and i trade gold in a free market. we look at the price, we trade it b/c its going up, so who's to say it isn't free market? you're
opinion has become gospel. ask yourself; what if it hasn't been manipulated but in fact represents wild self perpetuating speculation?
your agreement with me that gold is an asset is problematic for your argument. the way i see it is that if it is an asset, then bullion, just like the paper proxies (GLD, futures) is being pushed up by the inflation of USD's. when the paper prices crash, bullion will crash too and the USD which was used to pump these assets up will skyrocket. however, if gold was MONEY, then i might agree with you that the crash in paper proxies would drive the real money, bullion, UP as the scramble for real money ensues and the USD would crash.
QE3 is inevitable.
this, has become this:
Gold's rise does not depend on the continuation of QE.
and
I wouldn't be too concerned about Jackhole. It's like a gnat buzzing around a giant - insignificant in the big picture. It doesn't matter if QE is put off in the US;
this type of logic extension reminds me of the top in the housing bubble. everyone was saying that RE prices could not possibly go anywhere but up. remember? "its a hard asset, RE never goes down, Ben was saying that housing never had suffered a major setback in the US, never mind subprime, its contained, its a goldilocks economy, etc, etc. As the evidence came in to the contrary, all sorts of excuses were made with logic extensions which turned out to be disastrous.
The gold-silver ratio has been stretched to a limit. Value is being found in silver. This is the normal pattern (it's happened dozens of times over the past decade) before the ratio drops and silver will appear to slingshot past gold in relative value gain.
its NEVER gone this parabolic. reliance on past indicators is dangerous. as you know, every cycle is different so pointing to the gold/silver ratio as some sort of predictor isn't rational.
while you combine compelling arguments with long and patient well written prose i believe the odds are higher of the following, esp. since you agree with me that gold is an
asset:
1. parabolic blowoffs end badly
2. what can't go on forever won't
3. bullion will prove to be the ultimate pain due to its illiquidity
4. the USD system will self correct itself since i believe the Fed does not want to destroy itself
5. the 11 yr bull in PM's is close to coming to an end.
6. for gold to do what you say, you have to believe that Armageddon is upon us. it may be, but i don't think it unfolds as you say.
speculation, yes.
