rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

Fair enough. I think what's worrying about this last up-tick is the lack of volume, if anything I think this supports your theory of a re-test of the lows.

As you can see, bitstamp is crashing with as little volume as it was choochooing 2 days ago

"There is no stable price between 500 and 1000"

[rpietila]

Can any of the EW guys post an article that concisely explains what has happened after October and will happen in the future? Link ok.

[Ducky1]

In 2012, the virgin investment into Bitcoin was about $25M.

In 2013, it was about $2,5B (a hundredfold).

If we have a similar growth now, it would mean 250 billion dollars new investment(with a similar amount of dishoarding to new castles and lambos), and bitcoin price in $80k range at the close of 2014.

This would be superexponential growth.

The by me bolded part is the important factor here imo. Is it resonable to believe there will be a similar amount (in bitcoins) of "dishoarding" when the price goes up? If you follow your own SSS model the amount of bitcoins you sell as time goes by will be smaller and smaller, which may produce the second exp-function in the super-exponential graph. I may as usual have overlooked something, so feel free to shoot me down.

[rpietila]

In 2012, the virgin investment into Bitcoin was about $25M.

In 2013, it was about $2,5B (a hundredfold).

If we have a similar growth now, it would mean 250 billion dollars new investment(with a similar amount of dishoarding to new castles and lambos), and bitcoin price in $80k range at the close of 2014.

This would be superexponential growth.

The by me bolded part is the important factor here imo. Is it resonable to believe there will be a similar amount (in bitcoins) of "dishoarding" when the price goes up? If you follow your own SSS model the amount of bitcoins you sell as time goes by will be smaller and smaller, which may produce the second exp-function in the super-exponential graph. I may as usual have overlooked something, so feel free to shoot me down.

The buyers become owners and will also be subject to selling as the price goes up.

The only evidence of lasting superexponential growth (ie. not a parabolic bubbletop) is in the transition phases from old currency to the new, usually called hyperinflation.

[rpietila]

Quality TA thread?  Does that mean that there will be no pictures of female's derrieres to weed through and millions of CHOO CHOOs and rocket ships?  

So what do you think the trendline is now?  Do most of you think that we are still over the "trendline?"  I have seen a "new and improved" super exponential one that seems closer to how things are moving right now with the price hitting $10,000 in May and $100,000 in August.

I wouldn't hold your breathe waiting for a reply - I think us ladies have to sit at the back and talk quietly while the gents measure their dicks compare their cigars

Welcome girls! Eagerly awaiting your contribution The wish concerning no rumps has so far been granted..

Today's cigars are more modest, Oliva IV (one hour blonde from Nicaragua) and Montecristo dark 12cm, not comparable to my waist

As for trendline, today it's at 508, so we are .223 log units above. Not a buying territory, sorry..

[Ducky1]

In 2012, the virgin investment into Bitcoin was about $25M.

In 2013, it was about $2,5B (a hundredfold).

If we have a similar growth now, it would mean 250 billion dollars new investment(with a similar amount of dishoarding to new castles and lambos), and bitcoin price in $80k range at the close of 2014.

This would be superexponential growth.

The by me bolded part is the important factor here imo. Is it resonable to believe there will be a similar amount (in bitcoins) of "dishoarding" when the price goes up? If you follow your own SSS model the amount of bitcoins you sell as time goes by will be smaller and smaller, which may produce the second exp-function in the super-exponential graph. I may as usual have overlooked something, so feel free to shoot me down.

The buyers become owners and will also be subject to selling as the price goes up.

The only evidence of lasting superexponential growth (ie. not a parabolic bubbletop) is in the transition phases from old currency to the new, usually called hyperinflation.

Yes, but imo, there will be some substantial lag here. The ones buying now, and believing in bitcoin (like me) will not sell before the sum will be "life changing". So some of the bitcoins going from sellers like you cashing out according to plan will end up at buyers like me wanting to hold for a long period. I don't know whats "life changing" for most people, but for me it means at least a 10x increase before I start to sell anything.

Edit: also the amount of held bitcoin will probably increase even if the buyers of your coins sell according to your plan (I haven't done any calculation on this, just my hunch)

[RAJSALLIN]

Fair enough. I think what's worrying about this last up-tick is the lack of volume, if anything I think this supports your theory of a re-test of the lows.

As you can see, bitstamp is crashing with as little volume as it was choochooing 2 days ago

"There is no stable price between 500 and 1000"

Rpietila, I forgot to thank you for this thread. The regular wall observer is so full of crap it's not worth the time to follow. I'm hoping this thread will be of much higher quality and I hope I can be a small part of that. (This post is not part of it and feel free to delete it.)

[rpietila]

Yes, but imo, there will be some substantial lag here. The ones buying now, and believing in bitcoin (like me) will not sell before the sum will be "life changing". So some of the bitcoins going from sellers like you cashing out according to plan will end up at buyers like me wanting to hold for a long period. I don't know whats "life changing" for most people, but for me it means at least a 10x increase before I start to sell anything.

Edit: also the amount of held bitcoin will probably increase even if the buyers of your coins sell according to your plan (I haven't done any calculation on this, just my hunch)

There will be lag of course, but that is just the nature of the phenomenon, which will happen again and again. Bitcoin is scale-invariant, which means that the ones hoarding 10000s of bitcoins in the early years, sold into the 2011 bubble and bought their mansions. The ones buying like mad in early 2013 (me included) can now sell and be set for life. The ones buying 10 bitcoins now will have to wait 1-2 years. In each of the events the number of people is larger, price of 1 bitcoin is higher, number of bitcoins bought and sold per person is smaller, but the aggregate number is the same, and the influence to an individual person's life is pretty much constant (=equally life-changing )

[farfiman]

Yes, but imo, there will be some substantial lag here. The ones buying now, and believing in bitcoin (like me) will not sell before the sum will be "life changing". So some of the bitcoins going from sellers like you cashing out according to plan will end up at buyers like me wanting to hold for a long period. I don't know whats "life changing" for most people, but for me it means at least a 10x increase before I start to sell anything.

Edit: also the amount of held bitcoin will probably increase even if the buyers of your coins sell according to your plan (I haven't done any calculation on this, just my hunch)

There will be lag of course, but that is just the nature of the phenomenon, which will happen again and again. Bitcoin is scale-invariant, which means that the ones hoarding 10000s of bitcoins in the early years, sold into the 2011 bubble and bought their mansions. The ones buying like mad in early 2013 (me included) can now sell and be set for life. The ones buying 10 bitcoins now will have to wait 1-2 years. In each of the events the number of people is larger, price of 1 bitcoin is higher, number of bitcoins bought and sold per person is smaller, but the aggregate number is the same, and the influence to an individual person's life is pretty much constant (=equally life-changing )

Barring a disaster, you think 10BTC will be "life changing" in 1 to 2 years?

Will the equivalent of 3M USD be life changing to you?   Then yes.

[wobber]

Yes, but imo, there will be some substantial lag here. The ones buying now, and believing in bitcoin (like me) will not sell before the sum will be "life changing". So some of the bitcoins going from sellers like you cashing out according to plan will end up at buyers like me wanting to hold for a long period. I don't know whats "life changing" for most people, but for me it means at least a 10x increase before I start to sell anything.

Edit: also the amount of held bitcoin will probably increase even if the buyers of your coins sell according to your plan (I haven't done any calculation on this, just my hunch)

There will be lag of course, but that is just the nature of the phenomenon, which will happen again and again. Bitcoin is scale-invariant, which means that the ones hoarding 10000s of bitcoins in the early years, sold into the 2011 bubble and bought their mansions. The ones buying like mad in early 2013 (me included) can now sell and be set for life. The ones buying 10 bitcoins now will have to wait 1-2 years. In each of the events the number of people is larger, price of 1 bitcoin is higher, number of bitcoins bought and sold per person is smaller, but the aggregate number is the same, and the influence to an individual person's life is pretty much constant (=equally life-changing )

Barring a disaster, you think 10BTC will be "life changing" in 1 to 2 years?

Will the equivalent of 3M USD be life changing to you?   Then yes.

Bitcoin will never be 300k

[David Rabahy]

Perhaps this isn't the greatest buying moment in history *but* if one holds the longest point of view then it is good enough.  Cost averaging in over the course of a few months or even longer would be wise.

Buying at $900/BTC or so and then losing it all is the same as buying it at $400/BTC and doing the same.  Zero is zero either way.  Only the young (with time to recover) should invest more than they can afford to lose; they might have to endure living in their parent's basement a little longer.  The poor (if they can find a way in) could invest some modest amount (if they can do it without starving to death) in the hopes of hitting it big; personally I think this is a better move than buying regressive lottery tickets -- perhaps the allure of the immediate thrill of winning a lottery is too much to overcome.

Never sell unless there is some overriding issue; e.g. significant others need "proof" that one can indeed get out.  Hunger qualifies as an overriding issue but then it is called spending as opposed to selling.

Transitioning from a buy-and-hold-until-it-goes-to-zero-or-to-big position to the take-profits-as-desired position is the one I am grappling with.  I truly used funds that I can tolerate losing altogether; nothing has changed even though my investment is worth ~7x now.  I firmly believe Bitcoin is going big.  Why in the world would I take profits now?  Where would I park the profits to keep them safe from US dollar inflation which I believe is coming soon?

[rpietila]

Transitioning from a buy-and-hold-until-it-goes-to-zero-or-to-big position to the take-profits-as-desired position is the one I am grappling with.  I truly used funds that I can tolerate losing altogether; nothing has changed even though my investment is worth ~7x now.  I firmly believe Bitcoin is going big.  Why in the world would I take profits now?  Where would I park the profits to keep them safe from US dollar inflation which I believe is coming soon?

When bitcoin reaches 60%-80% of your net worth, it starts to make sense to diversify. Before that it doesn't.

It seems we are in the same situation as we were the 10th/11th of December. We tried to break the neckline from the previous double top acting as resistance and it failed (especially visible on chinese charts). Now the question is if we have enough momentum left for another attempt.

There was no momentum to begin with. Volume was so low. If I could take the time to concentrate on this, I would probably sell now.

Today's cigars are more modest, Oliva IV (one hour blonde from Nicaragua) and Montecristo dark 12cm, not comparable to my waist

The Montecristo was indeed nice, despite its small size, it was round and pleasant and lasted about 80 minutes. Will definitely buy again (about $22).

[wachtwoord]

Transitioning from a buy-and-hold-until-it-goes-to-zero-or-to-big position to the take-profits-as-desired position is the one I am grappling with.  I truly used funds that I can tolerate losing altogether; nothing has changed even though my investment is worth ~7x now.  I firmly believe Bitcoin is going big.  Why in the world would I take profits now?  Where would I park the profits to keep them safe from US dollar inflation which I believe is coming soon?

When bitcoin reaches 60%-80% of your net worth, it starts to make sense to diversify. Before that it doesn't.

That really depends on the size of your net wealth.

[bambou]

hello, just posting to bookmark this quality thread. As for now, would you reckon somekind of a small recovery back to 950ish (on stamp) before hitting the deep? or shall i just sell now? i am tempted to make it 60/40 on my BTC/fiat positions. would that be wise?

thx for the good work in here anyway, oh and i am enjoying a classic D4 Partagas

[MAbtc]

By the way hitting $995 in bitstamp before backing down is not a legit crossing of $990 (the daily from 10.12.2013 is still higher). If we do not quickly go back up and smash $1k, this is very bearish and might have been the start of a multi-week downtrend.

EW analysts say that the higher it goes before topping over, the deeper it goes also. I think this was quite high, so will we see $300 also??

I don't know, my EW is saying we're we closing 4 and about to start wave 5 to 1150-1200 area, and then correction.

A triple top at 1240 could send us back to your trendline for a few feeks or months.

What is your count? Could this not have fit the top of B in ABC corrective wave?

[rpietila]

I have the feeling - nothing scientific, of course - that we will see 500 before 1000 in Bitstamp.

EDIT:
There is some support, though. The number of bids above 500 has actually increased to 13.1k during the crash from about 12.6k yesterday. I've seen charts that say that the strong support is in 550-650, but judging from the bids it is in 350-500.

[Walsoraj]

I have the feeling - nothing scientific, of course - that we will see 500 before 1000 in Bitstamp.

Agree. Switch to Dogecoin before it's too late!

I thought Doge was a good joke, but the price seems to be in a permanent downtrend. Why?

It's a coiled snake, ready to spring.

[BitChick]

I have the feeling - nothing scientific, of course - that we will see 500 before 1000 in Bitstamp.

EDIT:
There is some support, though. The number of bids above 500 has actually increased to 13.1k during the crash from about 12.6k yesterday. I've seen charts that say that the strong support is in 550-650, but judging from the bids it is in 350-500.

It seems that I have often been surprised at your predictions being accurate, however, didn't we already have a nice little crash to $500 a few weeks ago?  What makes you think we will revisit that?  The trendline?  I am really starting to believe we are on the super-exponential curve now and $900 to $1000 is right on target if that is the case.  With all of the dumping we have seen with the price staying within this rage there seems to be some validity to this.  Thoughts?

[MAbtc]

I have the feeling - nothing scientific, of course - that we will see 500 before 1000 in Bitstamp.

EDIT:
There is some support, though. The number of bids above 500 has actually increased to 13.1k during the crash from about 12.6k yesterday. I've seen charts that say that the strong support is in 550-650, but judging from the bids it is in 350-500.

It seems that I have often been surprised at your predictions being accurate, however, didn't we already have a nice little crash to $500 a few weeks ago? 

I see people often make this case. A drop to below $500 once means that a considerable drop can't happen again? Why would that be?

[windjc]

I have the feeling - nothing scientific, of course - that we will see 500 before 1000 in Bitstamp.

EDIT:
There is some support, though. The number of bids above 500 has actually increased to 13.1k during the crash from about 12.6k yesterday. I've seen charts that say that the strong support is in 550-650, but judging from the bids it is in 350-500.

It seems that I have often been surprised at your predictions being accurate, however, didn't we already have a nice little crash to $500 a few weeks ago? 

I see people often make this case. A drop to below $500 once means that a considerable drop can't happen again? Why would that be?

True. But I often see people make the case that this rally and retraction should be compared to April or 2011, even though those 2 were completely different than each other. Why would that be?