nanobrain
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Dumb broad
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January 08, 2014, 07:30:13 AM |
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Some lovely posts aminorex, thanks for sharing.
The number of wallets from Q3 to Q4 went from ~350k to ~1M, a factor of ~3, while the price scaled by roughly the 8 or 9/4 power of that factor. This suggests to me that the fundamental value of bitcoin has increased at least as much as the price did from bottom to top, during that time. Probably bitcoin is now undervalued, and will be even more undervalued at the extreme. Consequently, I would be surprised if the trip back up from the eventual capitulation bottom is a protracted one. It should move with great force, and will probably never go below 1000 again unless there is a concerted attack or a technical catastrophe. The number of users will at least double during this quarter, which should at least quadruple the network-derived value component.
However, I'd suggest that using wallet numbers (I'm not sure where this data is sourced from...downloads or network activity?) might be rather inaccurate. As an anecdotal example I'm on my third wallet in two years but none of them have any coins in them - they are all in various exchanges - and I imagine I'm not the only one in this situation. And you'd need to factor in exchange accounts - I know roughly BTCe had about four thousand users in April and that had more than tripled by December. |
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TERA
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January 08, 2014, 07:31:46 AM |
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There are 11,012 users logged onto btce right now.
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Queeq
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January 08, 2014, 07:41:32 AM |
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And as far as I know they generate additional unique wallet for each user.
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Ducky1
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January 08, 2014, 07:52:17 AM |
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So far the 2 day downtrend hasn't seriously broken the uptrend from 12/17, so it ought not to be terribly surprising if the latter should continue.
If you zoom out on this chart: www.tradingview.com/e/eBL7nAJN/ it may appear that the current uptrend started at the beginning of October with a selloff, it may even have started at the end of September. SecondMarket fund started in this period. |
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aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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January 08, 2014, 02:16:38 PM |
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How deep will C cut?
Classically, significantly below 380. Realistically? Not flipping likely. I think you need to do the wave geometry on a logarithmically distorted chart. The farther out the end of wave B goes, the higher the end of C ends up being.
Now that 850 has been touched, C can commence at any time, with my full permission. The B retracement points are 760, 688, 618, 528. (618 would please my inner numerologist.) 568 is a point in A, so I would give it a non-zero weight. Extension points at 242 and 188 are utterly ludicrous to me.
Regarding wallet counts, until and unless a significant proportion of addresses are generated by machines for machine use, the rate of wallet creation is roughly proportionate to the number of users. I.e. the number of users is proportionate to the first derivative of the number of wallets, including empty ones.
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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zby
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January 08, 2014, 02:42:03 PM |
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How deep will C cut?
Classically, significantly below 380. Realistically? Not flipping likely. I think you need to do the wave geometry on a logarithmically distorted chart. The farther out the end of wave B goes, the higher the end of C ends up being.
Now that 850 has been touched, C can commence at any time, with my full permission. The B retracement points are 760, 688, 618, 528. (618 would please my inner numerologist.) 568 is a point in A, so I would give it a non-zero weight. Extension points at 242 and 188 are utterly ludicrous to me.
Regarding wallet counts, until and unless a significant proportion of addresses are generated by machines for machine use, the rate of wallet creation is roughly proportionate to the number of users. I.e. the number of users is proportionate to the first derivative of the number of wallets, including empty ones.
We often have triangles in bitcoin - why not this time? Why zigzag is the only option you are analyzing? |
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bitrider
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January 08, 2014, 03:59:07 PM |
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How deep will C cut?
Classically, significantly below 380. Realistically? Not flipping likely. I think you need to do the wave geometry on a logarithmically distorted chart. The farther out the end of wave B goes, the higher the end of C ends up being.
Now that 850 has been touched, C can commence at any time, with my full permission. The B retracement points are 760, 688, 618, 528. (618 would please my inner numerologist.) 568 is a point in A, so I would give it a non-zero weight. Extension points at 242 and 188 are utterly ludicrous to me.
Regarding wallet counts, until and unless a significant proportion of addresses are generated by machines for machine use, the rate of wallet creation is roughly proportionate to the number of users. I.e. the number of users is proportionate to the first derivative of the number of wallets, including empty ones.
Yup. I like the 618 number too.  This chart has been serving me quite well during this phase. https://www.tradingview.com/x/e7RMwYYp/I suspect the 2.618 line test is almost a "no brainier" at this point. But could easily see 1.618 over the next couple weeks/months. |
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aminorex
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January 08, 2014, 04:51:13 PM |
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We often have triangles in bitcoin - why not this time? Why zigzag is the only option you are analyzing?
Just because I was focussing on wave analysis, and not particularly deep wave analysis. Frankly I'm skeptical on wave theory, ,and not particularly well versed,, but the ABC interpretation does seem obvious. |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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F-bernanke
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January 08, 2014, 05:17:04 PM |
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It seems to me Bitcoin is at the beginning edge of the chasm per http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm. The Bitcoin exchange rates will mostly slump until the pragmatists (early majority) climb on board. If they don't then Bitcoin fails. I agree, I think we would need support of a few additional major retailers like overstock.com to cross the Chasm and really lift off. |
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bitcoinminer42
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notorious shrimp!
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January 08, 2014, 05:45:33 PM |
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IMO the support is raising up just right now... overstock, porn.com... maybe facebook?
a bigger issue will be the critical governments and reserve banks from US and Europe.
hope there will come a closed statement in the next few weeks
regards bcm42
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aminorex
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January 08, 2014, 06:05:08 PM |
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mt. gox seems to be running out of coins. that might put a kink in the C wave scenario.
either that or it will be the straw that broke mt. gox's back.
anybody know who is doing arb with mt. gox? is there a useful thread about interexchange arb?
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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aminorex
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January 08, 2014, 06:08:23 PM |
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I agree, I think we would need support of a few additional major retailers like overstock.com to cross the Chasm and really lift off.
I do not think we need any retail traffic for btc to rocket up. Just the international remittance market alone would suffice to take us to 3k-5k USD. We need infrastructure, not markets. Markets are hungry for bitcoin functionality. Infrastructure to deliver that functionality into those markets is lacking (and represents the best business opportunity in the crypto space). Infrastructure for retail is much more difficult to get right. Remittances are easier to do. |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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bitrider
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January 08, 2014, 07:29:54 PM |
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I agree, I think we would need support of a few additional major retailers like overstock.com to cross the Chasm and really lift off.
I do not think we need any retail traffic for btc to rocket up. Just the international remittance market alone would suffice to take us to 3k-5k USD. We need infrastructure, not markets. Markets are hungry for bitcoin functionality. Infrastructure to deliver that functionality into those markets is lacking (and represents the best business opportunity in the crypto space). Infrastructure for retail is much more difficult to get right. Remittances are easier to do. +1 Agreed. And it is coming. |
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David Rabahy
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January 08, 2014, 07:48:43 PM |
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In my opinion, it would be highly useful to launch a campaign to position bitcoin as the competition for Western Union. Since bitcoin can and is likely to eat Western Union's lunch; we should approach them. Either they can adopt bitcoin and survive and thrive *or* enter a phase of decline. Who speaks for bitcoin? It seems unreasonable to trust Western Union will figure this out on their own.
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F-bernanke
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January 08, 2014, 07:55:26 PM |
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I think there is a demand for a good bitcoin escrow service, if WU is smart, they step in here.
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TERA
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January 08, 2014, 08:00:38 PM |
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In my opinion, it would be highly useful to launch a campaign to position bitcoin as the competition for Western Union. Since bitcoin can and is likely to eat Western Union's lunch; we should approach them. Either they can adopt bitcoin and survive and thrive *or* enter a phase of decline. Who speaks for bitcoin? It seems unreasonable to trust Western Union will figure this out on their own.
The advantage of western union is anyone can walk in with their fiat and send money, and they also don't need to understand anything about how it works. Btc cannot possibly replace WU on its own because it does not transmit fiat. In order for btc to function as WU you also need to integrate some kind of fiat/btc exchange service. Even in this case btc is not replacing WU but only part of a system that like WU and it also likely to be too much for the average user to bother with. |
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notme
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January 08, 2014, 08:03:35 PM |
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BTC can't solve remittances because there are unequal flows of money. If 10,000 btc get sent home to India, the rupee/btc exchange rate will plummet unless those bitcoins get sent elsewhere before they are sold.
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David Rabahy
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January 08, 2014, 08:08:45 PM |
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Neat;
Western Union: Hello David, could you please send us a private message that includes detailed information on why you suggest BitCoin to be examined? Tell us about your experience, we will be more than glad to help you.
Um, what do I say?
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