rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[bambou]

Ive been looking at the weekly candle chart . Seems its best time to buy when theres 4 weeks of red AND or Bitcoin touches the 30 Week EMA.

Just before each run up theres 4-5 red candles and the 30 week EMA line gets tested which right now sits at $475 and decreasing its accent. I would play the 30 week EMA. its bound to get tested before thing substantial happens

any figures highlighting your analysis plz?

[1714303039]

1714303039

[rpietila]

If you sell here do not lose sleep of being left behind

I encourage anyone to look at the weekly chart. I have looked at ever bubble pop / crash / bounce since the beginning and have noticed that anyone you sells above the 7 week moving average post bubble pop bounce CAN REBUY THEIR POSITION for less that they sold for if not substantially less at a later time. Look at the chart yourself. If you sell here don't lose sleep that the train will take off without you.

Now if you sold below the blue line it may be a different story. But it should put alot of ease to people thinking about closing their position (with intention to re-open) currently.

I think this is along the same lines as my trading philosophy. Sell when it has popped and is still obviously high. Buy back near the 30WMA. Naturally always have some of the coins in cold storage because of exchange risk.

[dedcoin]

It does not really matter what your allocation is now, and whether you are "in the process of a trade going sour" or not. Just decide where you want to be, should any of the scenarios happen. If possible, try to think which one of them is more probable, but do not neglect any of them. Then buy/sell your bitcoins so that the position is most suitable for everything.

If everything that can happen is something you have already planned for, you do well in all situations and cannot really lose. This is wise position management, and opposite to gambling. Even prediction has very little to do with this.

Personally, I only believe in two scenarios for bitcoin.  a) to da moon wherever the moon is b) Zero.
Simply because as it is now, BTC is just a small niche for speculators ... Banana market is larger

If 50BTC is same as 100BTC, then 30BTC is too, in terms of utility at moon level. Hence I see it more rewarding to wait for a dip (that can happen quickly) than panic buy at ATH (which is much slower to reach). That's I guess is your strategy.

Thanks for the advises. I think I will go back all-in btc with the fiat I have, and invest more of my savings only when there is a serious dip.

[The Bitcoin Foundation]

http://s17.postimg.org/3kbtbnwkv/Screenshot_4.png

If you sell here do not lose sleep of being left behind

I encourage anyone to look at the weekly chart. I have looked at ever bubble pop / crash / bounce since the beginning and have noticed that anyone you sells above the 7 week moving average post bubble pop bounce CAN REBUY THEIR POSITION for less that they sold for if not substantially less at a later time. Look at the chart yourself. If you sell here don't lose sleep that the train will take off without you.

Now if you sold below the blue line it may be a different story. But it should put alot of ease to people thinking about closing their position (with intention to re-open) currently.

I think this is along the same lines as my trading philosophy. Sell when it has popped and is still obviously high. Buy back near the 30WMA. Naturally always have some of the coins in cold storage because of exchange risk.

Exactly my move. Its what happens after a pop and between the next bubble that fascinates me, and is simply the best way to take profits in a condition you clearly know is over bought (shit just popped last month, what better hint can one get) and still take profits in and area that is still well above the MA.

Flash crashing in 2 weeks dosnt give people time to think and react so the market has to let people think and doubt and revisit support levels to instil confidence before moving to the next level. Its almost too logical. This is why this weeks candle looks loke a Doji. Its exactly how the market feels right now, uncertain if we should go down or up. Its easier to test down then it is to test up.

Too many people got "wealthy" really quickly" The market will allow them to rethink holding any longer after seeing the crash. This is usually reflected by a period of decline after a pop. ]

I also believe BTC will go to $100,000 easy BUT at the same time know the majority of speculators DO NOT and am not nieve to overlook their emotions when making my plays.

[FiatKiller]

I for one greatly appreciate you spending your time with us. Agree or not, it gets our wheels
turning on what we want to do.

But you need to change the thread title. I giggle everytime I read "TA"!  lol

[doctor877]

If you sell here do not lose sleep of being left behind

I encourage anyone to look at the weekly chart. I have looked at ever bubble pop / crash / bounce since the beginning and have noticed that anyone you sells above the 7 week moving average post bubble pop bounce CAN REBUY THEIR POSITION for less that they sold for if not substantially less at a later time. Look at the chart yourself. If you sell here don't lose sleep that the train will take off without you.

Now if you sold below the blue line it may be a different story. But it should put alot of ease to people thinking about closing their position (with intention to re-open) currently.

I think this is along the same lines as my trading philosophy. Sell when it has popped and is still obviously high. Buy back near the 30WMA. Naturally always have some of the coins in cold storage because of exchange risk.

Exactly my move. Its what happens after a pop and between the next bubble that fascinates me, and is simply the best way to take profits in a condition you clearly know is over bought (shit just popped last month, what better hint can one get) and still take profits in and area that is still well above the MA.

Flash crashing in 2 weeks dosnt give people time to think and react so the market has to let people think and doubt and revisit support levels to instil confidence before moving to the next level. Its almost too logical. This is why this weeks candle looks loke a Doji. Its exactly how the market feels right now, uncertain if we should go down or up. Its easier to test down then it is to test up.

Too many people got "wealthy" really quickly" The market will allow them to rethink holding any longer after seeing the crash. This is usually reflected by a period of decline after a pop. ]

I also believe BTC will go to $100,000 easy BUT at the same time know the majority of speculators DO NOT and am not nieve to overlook their emotions when making my plays.

So do you still think that we visit ~500$ as we're now close to the second top??

[aminorex]

Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014

[The Bitcoin Foundation]

Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014

I see $816 stamp by Jan 17 ( 2 days)

Current $844

[NamelessOne]

If you sell here do not lose sleep of being left behind

I encourage anyone to look at the weekly chart. I have looked at ever bubble pop / crash / bounce since the beginning and have noticed that anyone you sells above the 7 week moving average post bubble pop bounce CAN REBUY THEIR POSITION for less that they sold for if not substantially less at a later time. Look at the chart yourself. If you sell here don't lose sleep that the train will take off without you.

Now if you sold below the blue line it may be a different story. But it should put alot of ease to people thinking about closing their position (with intention to re-open) currently.

I think this is along the same lines as my trading philosophy. Sell when it has popped and is still obviously high. Buy back near the 30WMA. Naturally always have some of the coins in cold storage because of exchange risk.

This roughly matches my philosophy also, I try to sell as high as possible after I believe the pop is more than just a flash crash, I often wait months after the big crashes to buy back in again in a real way. Usually you can buy back in substantially cheaper.

[Odalv]

If you sell here do not lose sleep of being left behind

I encourage anyone to look at the weekly chart. I have looked at ever bubble pop / crash / bounce since the beginning and have noticed that anyone you sells above the 7 week moving average post bubble pop bounce CAN REBUY THEIR POSITION for less that they sold for if not substantially less at a later time. Look at the chart yourself. If you sell here don't lose sleep that the train will take off without you.

Now if you sold below the blue line it may be a different story. But it should put alot of ease to people thinking about closing their position (with intention to re-open) currently.

I think this is along the same lines as my trading philosophy. Sell when it has popped and is still obviously high. Buy back near the 30WMA. Naturally always have some of the coins in cold storage because of exchange risk.

This roughly matches my philosophy also, I try to sell as high as possible after I believe the pop is more than just a flash crash, I often wait months after the big crashes to buy back in again in a real way. Usually you can buy back in substantially cheaper.

That is fine ... only if you compare volume SOLD and BOUGHT then you can see how many bough back.

[bclcjunkie]

dude if you're the sensitive type then don't read his thread it's simple as that or find yourself some place else. Personally i don't see any issues in his character.. Now i don't speak for majority, others may have different opinions so what's important to me is people like him still find time to post valuable insights and sometimes it's just interesting to view things from his perspective... also whenever people bitch about how wealthy someone is it just sounds more like jealousy and envy...

I am sure that people will add valuable inputs when you stop talking about your self, so you wont give the the chance to attack your character,  another important key of productive discussion is to admit your mistakes without turning the direction of discussion about how loaded and rich you are, this is not a moral thing to do and I, one of the people, am sensitive when it comes to people egos, no matter how good is your input, you can ruin it with one word and you lose your audience.

people are not here to read about how much do you have, you can tell your friends and family about that, but are here to get different opinions, the other thing that I did notice is that you ask people to write something of value backed with calculations but even you don't back your posts with any scientific facts rather than words " my calculation" ..... show people how did you calculate, I am sure that there is plenty of us who are good at math...

I am really curious what kind of education you do have ? usually it is people who failed their in education adopt this way of discussion and try to cover (hide) behind their material winnings but usually their ego expose them and make them an easy target...

delete my post and you once again prove me right

[eboard10]

Hi all, after following the recent spike and subsequent crash of Bitcoin on the news I decided to look into cryptocoins and was brought here. Joined yesterday and am really liking this thread.

I am no trader and cannot provide any technical analysis but IMO, BTC will correct further in the coming months, by how much and when I am clueless. I tend to look at Bitcoin as a digital precious metal. Back in August 2011, gold peaked at $1900 before falling to $1500. At the time, many investors thought that the bottom was reached and that the price would rise above $2000 in a matter of months. Over two years have passed and gold is still in a bear market with prices under $1200 and it will very likely correct further before we see a reverse in the current trend. I personally wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes down to the $500-600 range, possibly even $400 but it may take some time. Just my 2 cents.

[granathus]

Hi all, after following the recent spike and subsequent crash of Bitcoin on the news I decided to look into cryptocoins and was brought here. Joined yesterday and am really liking this thread.

I am no trader and cannot provide any technical analysis but IMO, BTC will correct further in the coming months, by how much and when I am clueless. I tend to look at Bitcoin as a digital precious metal. Back in August 2011, gold peaked at $1900 before falling to $1500. At the time, many investors thought that the bottom was reached and that the price would rise above $2000 in a matter of months. Over two years have passed and gold is still in a bear market with prices under $1200 and it will very likely correct further before we see a reverse in the current trend. I personally wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes down to the $500-600 range, possibly even $400 but it may take some time. Just my 2 cents.

The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.

[granathus]

Hi all, after following the recent spike and subsequent crash of Bitcoin on the news I decided to look into cryptocoins and was brought here. Joined yesterday and am really liking this thread.

I am no trader and cannot provide any technical analysis but IMO, BTC will correct further in the coming months, by how much and when I am clueless. I tend to look at Bitcoin as a digital precious metal. Back in August 2011, gold peaked at $1900 before falling to $1500. At the time, many investors thought that the bottom was reached and that the price would rise above $2000 in a matter of months. Over two years have passed and gold is still in a bear market with prices under $1200 and it will very likely correct further before we see a reverse in the current trend. I personally wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes down to the $500-600 range, possibly even $400 but it may take some time. Just my 2 cents.

The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.

You can not manipulate a market for so long. It is just an excuse for the failed predictions of the goldbugs.

Oh, "you" can, if you are the central bank.

[eboard10]

The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.

Hi granathus, I used to believe the same but have since changed my view on the whole manipulation debate. Sure, the price of gold is "manipulated" but so are all other commodities, currencies and stocks on the market. Manipulation is just another word for "trading for profit making". The price of gold is not determined by supply & demand but by the market and what drives markets is sentiment. Plus, if you think that gold has risen for over a decade, one shouldn't be surprised to see a large correction before the trend reverses back. I think we may see something similar with Bitcoin but in a shorter time-frame.

[Ducky1]

The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.

Hi granathus, I used to believe the same but have since changed my view on the whole manipulation debate. Sure, the price of gold is "manipulated" but so are all other commodities, currencies and stocks on the market. Manipulation is just another word for "trading for profit making". The price of gold is not determined by supply & demand but by the market and what drives markets is sentiment. Plus, if you think that gold has risen for over a decade, one shouldn't be surprised to see a large correction before the trend reverses back. I think we may see something similar with Bitcoin but in a shorter time-frame.

How do they manage to continue the manipulation if all the gold has gone to china? They cant even give Germany back their gold so the vaults must be pretty empty by now.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/monkey-business-surrounding-the-repatriation-of-germanys-gold-stored-at-the-ny-federal-reserve-bank/5364090

[aminorex]

How do they manage to continue the manipulation if all the gold has gone to china?

Naked shorting futures seems to do the job.  Draining the ETFs helps.

I think the error bars around the physical gold supply are much larger than commonly supposed.  People like certainty, and will seize upon a number with little regard for its provenance.

[aminorex]

Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014

I declare victory on 830.  Still holding to 918.

[granathus]

I think the error bars around the physical gold supply are much larger than commonly supposed.  People like certainty, and will seize upon a number with little regard for its provenance.

True, true.

[granathus]

On the ongoing gold manipulation by central banks.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-16/precious-metals-manipulation-worse-libor-german-regulator-says