rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[The Bitcoin Foundation]

Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014

I declare victory on 830.  Still holding to 918.

my 811 call almost there

[1714261132]

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[1714261132]

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[1714261132]

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[1714261132]

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[1714261132]

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[1714261132]

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[The Bitcoin Foundation]

Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014

I see $816 stamp by Jan 17 ( 2 days)

Current $844

No wait I called $816 ha

Sittin at $815

[notme]

Hi all, after following the recent spike and subsequent crash of Bitcoin on the news I decided to look into cryptocoins and was brought here. Joined yesterday and am really liking this thread.

I am no trader and cannot provide any technical analysis but IMO, BTC will correct further in the coming months, by how much and when I am clueless. I tend to look at Bitcoin as a digital precious metal. Back in August 2011, gold peaked at $1900 before falling to $1500. At the time, many investors thought that the bottom was reached and that the price would rise above $2000 in a matter of months. Over two years have passed and gold is still in a bear market with prices under $1200 and it will very likely correct further before we see a reverse in the current trend. I personally wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes down to the $500-600 range, possibly even $400 but it may take some time. Just my 2 cents.

The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.

You can not manipulate a market for so long. It is just an excuse for the failed predictions of the goldbugs.

People get uncomfortable with the idea that we are hurtling through space on a tiny rock and we only have the illusion of control.  It is easier to make up stories about how some powerful entity is controlling things than to accept the fact that in the grand scheme of things every single human and every single organization created by said humans, is at the mercy of the universe.

[outofservice]

Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014

I see $816 stamp by Jan 17 ( 2 days)

Current $844

No wait I called $816 ha

Sittin at $815

You called it TBF,

Do you see it dipping any lower or is this the resistance?

[The Bitcoin Foundation]

I was using the 61.8 Fib retrace level

[The Bitcoin Foundation]

Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014

I see $816 stamp by Jan 17 ( 2 days)

Current $844

No wait I called $816 ha

Sittin at $815

You called it TBF,

Do you see it dipping any lower or is this the resistance?

If $815 dosnt hold see yah at $780

[outofservice]

Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014

I see $816 stamp by Jan 17 ( 2 days)

Current $844

No wait I called $816 ha

Sittin at $815

You called it TBF,

Do you see it dipping any lower or is this the resistance?

If $815 dosnt hold see yah at $780

I'm good with that. If it goes up, I make money. If it goes down, I buy more cheap coins.

[The Bitcoin Foundation]

Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014

I see $816 stamp by Jan 17 ( 2 days)

Current $844

No wait I called $816 ha

You only make money if you sell. Where you selling?

Sittin at $815

You called it TBF,

Do you see it dipping any lower or is this the resistance?

If $815 dosnt hold see yah at $780

I'm good with that. If it goes up, I make money. If it goes down, I buy more cheap coins.

[rpietila]

No cigars for some time now - see, they don't even cause addiction, like the shigarettes do..

The price, volume and general interest in Bitcoin seem to follow the pattern established with the previous bubble burst. If May-June 2013 is any guide, we would hold these levels still for some time and then drift lower. Then we would start to see dips, followed by recoveries, but always to lower levels. The final capitulation after which we permanently move on to new levels would happen in February-March. The bottom price is anybody's guess. Without news it will be higher than with news.

In other words, nothing has changed in my evaluation from 8.12.2013, except that I regard the main scenario as increasingly likely, the more time we spend in price apathy, low volume, and dwindling interest. For a person who would like to increase position moderately, things look good

Some oldtimers may remember the time when my supernode was active. It was dissolved in May 2013, but I did set the procedure on how to reactivate the supernode and start to do some serious rockin'-the-world. We are having the General Supernode Meeting in Tallinn, Estonia, starting tomorrow. After a few days we will be sufficiently enlightened to decide whether the current powers are sufficient, or whether activation is expedient. (It is also possible that there is a completely different solution.) The reactivation is tied to a matter of purchasing suitable premises, which practically means a castle.

On the other hand, I promised not to start with the Supernode Network before the price hits $1.4. It's ok, it will not be that many months away, and the castles always require repairs before active use... 

[BitchicksHusband]

Hi all, after following the recent spike and subsequent crash of Bitcoin on the news I decided to look into cryptocoins and was brought here. Joined yesterday and am really liking this thread.

I am no trader and cannot provide any technical analysis but IMO, BTC will correct further in the coming months, by how much and when I am clueless. I tend to look at Bitcoin as a digital precious metal. Back in August 2011, gold peaked at $1900 before falling to $1500. At the time, many investors thought that the bottom was reached and that the price would rise above $2000 in a matter of months. Over two years have passed and gold is still in a bear market with prices under $1200 and it will very likely correct further before we see a reverse in the current trend. I personally wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes down to the $500-600 range, possibly even $400 but it may take some time. Just my 2 cents.

The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.

You can not manipulate a market for so long. It is just an excuse for the failed predictions of the goldbugs.

People get uncomfortable with the idea that we are hurtling through space on a tiny rock and we only have the illusion of control.  It is easier to make up stories about how some powerful entity is controlling things than to accept the fact that in the grand scheme of things every single human and every single organization created by said humans, is at the mercy of the universe.

People get uncomfortable with the idea that there is a God that will punish them for their sins, especially the pride of refusing to give Him control.  It is easier to make up stories about how we are some unimportant sludge on a tiny rock hurtling through space so that it frees us to do whatever we want than to accept the fact that in the grand scheme of things every single human and every single organization created by said humans is at the mercy of an Almighty God.

[thoughtfan]

Hi all, after following the recent spike and subsequent crash of Bitcoin on the news I decided to look into cryptocoins and was brought here. Joined yesterday and am really liking this thread.

I am no trader and cannot provide any technical analysis but IMO, BTC will correct further in the coming months, by how much and when I am clueless. I tend to look at Bitcoin as a digital precious metal. Back in August 2011, gold peaked at $1900 before falling to $1500. At the time, many investors thought that the bottom was reached and that the price would rise above $2000 in a matter of months. Over two years have passed and gold is still in a bear market with prices under $1200 and it will very likely correct further before we see a reverse in the current trend. I personally wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes down to the $500-600 range, possibly even $400 but it may take some time. Just my 2 cents.

The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.

You can not manipulate a market for so long. It is just an excuse for the failed predictions of the goldbugs.

People get uncomfortable with the idea that we are hurtling through space on a tiny rock and we only have the illusion of control.  It is easier to make up stories about how some powerful entity is controlling things than to accept the fact that in the grand scheme of things every single human and every single organization created by said humans, is at the mercy of the universe.

People get uncomfortable with the idea that there is a God that will punish them for their sins, especially the pride of refusing to give Him control.  It is easier to make up stories about how we are some unimportant sludge on a tiny rock hurtling through space so that it frees us to do whatever we want than to accept the fact that in the grand scheme of things every single human and every single organization created by said humans is at the mercy of an Almighty God.

I kinda see what you are trying to do here but the inverse falls apart in my eyes.  If 'every single human [...] is at the mercy of an Almighty God' how could one 'refuse to give Him control'?  I'm not asking you to start quoting me chapter and verse - actually if anything I'd much prefer you didn't - just pointing out what looks to me like one of the many logical inconsistencies one has to perpetually maintain in one's mind to continue to believe in a god-like character - in particular one of an Abrahamic ilk!

It is not surprising to see failure when someone makes an attempt to illustrate 'it takes just as much faith to believe in nature/the universe/that there is no god' etc. as it does to believe there is a god'.

Edit:  Looking at what you wrote again bch, the more I look at it the more ridiculous a statement it seems - but I don't want to clog up Risto's thread (we may well just be deleted anyway - so if you would like to take this further (I'm more than happy to point out where I see it problematic) we could do so by PM or in the off-topic lounge if you like.  Please note whilst I may be seen to be insulting of religion I attempt not to be insulting of the religious and respect anybody's right to believe anything.

[FiatKiller]

RP. thanks for mentioning supernode because I had no idea what it was and the flaw it addresses. Definitely makes me more bearish for crypto after reading about it, unless action is taken in the next 1-2 years.  A lot of people do not even have 2 GB free on their hard drives.  lol

[hdbuck]

RP. thanks for mentioning supernode because I had no idea what it was and the flaw it addresses. Definitely makes me more bearish for crypto after reading about it, unless action is taken in the next 1-2 years.  A lot of people do not even have 2 GB free on their hard drives.  lol

what is all the fuss with supernodes? 

[FiatKiller]

RP. thanks for mentioning supernode because I had no idea what it was and the flaw it addresses. Definitely makes me more bearish for crypto after reading about it, unless action is taken in the next 1-2 years.  A lot of people do not even have 2 GB free on their hard drives.  lol

what is all the fuss with supernodes? 

http://stormcloudsgathering.com/bitcoin-what-youre-not-being-told

[hdbuck]

RP. thanks for mentioning supernode because I had no idea what it was and the flaw it addresses. Definitely makes me more bearish for crypto after reading about it, unless action is taken in the next 1-2 years.  A lot of people do not even have 2 GB free on their hard drives.  lol

what is all the fuss with supernodes?  

http://stormcloudsgathering.com/bitcoin-what-youre-not-being-told

i would rather think this issue would have been assessed by now or at least been partly taken care off (ex: dont need to dl full blockchain for pool mining, neither for internet wallets, multibit, etc...)? it is obvious that the growing network will require massive data centers that fully dl the blockhain but isnt it already happening with all these new warehouses opening?

[dedcoin]

I don't recall the exact details. But if you read the bitcoin paper, Satoshi says that the blockchain can be pruned at some point .. I might have misunderstood though

Edit:
Here it is:
"7. Reclaiming Disk Space
Once the latest transaction in a coin is buried under enough blocks, the spent transactions before
it can be discarded to save disk space. To facilitate this without breaking the block's hash,
transactions are hashed in a Merkle Tree [7][2][5], with only the root included in the block's hash.
Old blocks can then be compacted by stubbing off branches of the tree. The interior hashes do
not need to be stored"

[hdbuck]

I don't recall the exact details. But if you read the bitcoin paper, Satoshi says that the blockchain can be pruned at some point .. I might have misunderstood though

Edit:
Here it is:
"7. Reclaiming Disk Space
Once the latest transaction in a coin is buried under enough blocks, the spent transactions before
it can be discarded to save disk space. To facilitate this without breaking the block's hash,
transactions are hashed in a Merkle Tree [7][2][5], with only the root included in the block's hash.
Old blocks can then be compacted by stubbing off branches of the tree. The interior hashes do
not need to be stored"

yes, thank you, exactly! im starting to believe there are some fools who just cant see the bare truth about Bitcoin: its going to last..

[FiatKiller]

It will last IF action is taken.  ;-)

[Ivanhoe]

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

In March, 2013 I made a public bet for a sum of 7 bitcoins (<$1,000 back then). I got a call from the police, because soliciting public bets is illegal where I live. Therefore I have to structure all bets as financial instruments and have them in the books of my company in another country. And to make this profitable for me, they have to be for a quite large amount, and also give better odds than I could have just by using other options at my disposal.

So this ain't so much fun as it should be

Ok, if the price goes below $500,- ( mt. Gox ) i'll send you a box of cigars as gift. You can decide if you send one if it doesn't go below that price. I would like to know if your taste of cigars is as good as you say it is

If ever I send you a gift, the price will be determined in Bitstamp

What do you propose as Bitstamp price?

All probabilities are against me that it would even go to 600. So I would be delighted to have gifts if it goes below 500 intraday in Bitstamp. If the year passes without this happening, the remaining stash makes me so rich that I can send gifts to my friends

My taste is "traditional Cuban" - aromatic, balanced, not very strong. The cigar needs to be big (thick) enough to realize the flavour, petit corona (44) size is the minimum. Usually I buy the top end of the range and only a few at a time though, because I never know when I develop a new hobby...

Ok fine, Bitstamp it is. The thing is i can see it go below 500 too intraday. Although i do estimate the chances very small. I know there is lots of money waiting to enter this market. If you ' win' this however your taste in cigars is irrelevant because the one who is right gets to choose what he sends. I hope you like cigars from the dominican republic

[aminorex]

Walter Zimmerman of United ICAP on 5 Dec 2013 did a wave analysis indicating a 3800 USD price target on BTC:
http://www.united-icap.com/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=4Q5Xubs1SDM%3d&tabid=136&mid=632