rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Roccker]

[just want to quickly be one voice regarding 'the bet' instead of just a silent reader]
Did not read everything but great stuff as ever and my respect for rpietila has risen as well as Windjc who also wanted to bet. Rpietila offered a bet and nobody took it, Windjc offered another bet and Rpietila did not take it because he did not like the conditions. All well and good. In hindsight Rpietila would have lost and this is all well and good. Two (experienced) guys who write what they think the prize will be and willing to make open bets, that's great stuff - concrete, honest, open - and i am very thankful for that.

[pa]

In hindsight Rpietila would have lost and this is all well and good.

Don't be hasty. It's still possible the bet would have ended in a draw.

[2017orso]

EW was a pattern observed retroactively for decades worth of data in saturated / mature markets.  Bitcoin is none of those.

EW certainly applies to bitcoin. very clearly. the constant is not the market, the constant is people/herd psychology - old as the hills. wave counts can be ambiguous, but I promise you Bitcoin offers some of the clearest junctures you will eves see. this is because people are very emotionally attached, and prone to panic/greed.

Granted.  Nevertheless, 'wave counts can be ambiguous'.

Aware of the representations of aggregate psychology as manifestations of bubble-like activity.  For the most part, this falls within the realm of common sense.  Wave counts encompassing bubble phases are insignificant and being adamant about in-depth wave counts in this case is simply obnoxious.

[chessnut]

EW was a pattern observed retroactively for decades worth of data in saturated / mature markets.  Bitcoin is none of those.

EW certainly applies to bitcoin. very clearly. the constant is not the market, the constant is people/herd psychology - old as the hills. wave counts can be ambiguous, but I promise you Bitcoin offers some of the clearest junctures you will eves see. this is because people are very emotionally attached, and prone to panic/greed.

Granted.  Nevertheless, 'wave counts can be ambiguous'.

Aware of the representations of aggregate psychology as manifestations of bubble-like activity.  For the most part, this falls within the realm of common sense.  Wave counts encompassing bubble phases are insignificant and being adamant about in-depth wave counts in this case is simply obnoxious.

one way or the other, physics does fall into the realm of common sense. wave theory is very detailed, I couldnt call a top with common sense.
I agree 100% with that said in bold. I am not such an anlayst. rule of thumb, the price can go up, or down, at any point in time 

[seleme]

Speaking of trendlines, there some EW trader who gave a 3 hour lecture on youtube about how all of the trendlines are going to break due to EW and they all have to retrace. Even that lower line, the one I'm following, he thinks is going to break.  What do you think.

Dan is consistently wrong. And keeps altering his consistently wrongness. Follow him at your own peril.

Actually Dan was calling 400's back at 850.One would have made a shitload of money following his model. Say what you want about his low end, but to call him 'consistantly wrong' is undeserved.

It's not hard to make it right when you make 30 different charts per day. Many people called 400$ at that point, even usual perma bull rpietila.

Dan just throws his shit each hour and when it finally meets some of his projection - voila, he's EW prophet.

There are loads of people here and on Tradingview that could make you much more shitload of money than Dan could if you followed them. And on daily basis, not on 5 months one. If you followed Dan's advices and back it up with shorting, you'd get squezeed more time than you had dollars to trade with.

[rpietila]

For everyone interested in bitcoin price - soon we will have crowd-wisdom predictions for the price for any future month. The data will be gathered by a Price Prediction Contest method.

The "PPC" works such that contestants periodically submit predictions for future prices and when the future unfolds, they get rewarded points for the accuracy of their predictions, relative to other contestants. This highly competitive system steers all the predictions towards maximum aggregate accuracy, which can be used in financial planning.

And not only that - entrance to the competition is available for all, for a fee of only 50mBTC (about €15). A full 25% of entrants receive their money back at least double! The winner jackpot is always at least 1,000mBTC!! (All entrance fees + my bounty of 1,000mBTC go to the prize pot so the game is +EV )

Final beta rules are now available. The deadline for first round entries is next Monday 2014-5-5.

[JHammer]

For everyone interested in bitcoin price - soon we will have crowd-wisdom predictions for the price for any future month. The data will be gathered by a Price Prediction Contest method.

The "PPC" works such that contestants periodically submit predictions for future prices and when the future unfolds, they get rewarded points for the accuracy of their predictions, relative to other contestants. This highly competitive system steers all the predictions towards maximum aggregate accuracy, which can be used in financial planning.

And not only that - entrance to the competition is available for all, for a fee of only 50mBTC (about €15). A full 25% of entrants receive their money back at least double! The winner jackpot is always at least 1,000mBTC!! (All entrance fees + my bounty of 1,000mBTC go to the prize pot so the game is +EV )

Final beta rules are now available. The deadline for first round entries is next Monday 2014-5-5.

Sounds interesting.. So contestants can use any method they wish to predict the price correct?   From TA to voodoo, to Tea Leafs to WAG's to monkey dart shots?

[rpietila]

Sounds interesting.. So contestants can use any method they wish to predictions the price correct?   From TA to voodoo, to Tea Leafs to WAG's to monkey dart shots?

The format that they must use to express the predictions is fixed. (This is a great advantage to the usual predicting where people predict whatever over whatever timeframe and have no scenario/probability understanding).

But the way to reach the conclusions of where the price is going is completely up to you!! 

[JHammer]

Sounds interesting.. So contestants can use any method they wish to predictions the price correct?   From TA to voodoo, to Tea Leafs to WAG's to monkey dart shots?

The format that they must use to express the predictions is fixed. (This is a great advantage to the usual predicting where people predict whatever over whatever timeframe and have no scenario/probability understanding).

But the way to reach the conclusions of where the price is going is completely up to you!! 

Thanks rpietila..  I love this thread and am completely new to TA but am learning a lot from you and this thread..

I ask before if you or anyone here had some good suggestions on where to start with learning TA and did not get many responses so been researching it myself best I can..

But I am going to try and learn enough to someday participate in this.. Sounds fun and a good way to put each persons TA to the test..

[SlipperySlope]

Sounds interesting.. So contestants can use any method they wish to predictions the price correct?   From TA to voodoo, to Tea Leafs to WAG's to monkey dart shots?

The format that they must use to express the predictions is fixed. (This is a great advantage to the usual predicting where people predict whatever over whatever timeframe and have no scenario/probability understanding).

But the way to reach the conclusions of where the price is going is completely up to you!! 

I am very busy at the moment, but I will enter this commendable wisdom of crowds contest when I get the time. Cheers!

[counter]

It does look like an interesting contests.  Not sure I have what it takes to win but I still may give it a try.

[SlipperySlope]

It now appears that adjusted transaction volume is headed down over the last two days, lagging the price movement by about three days . . .

[rpietila]

Quick TA update (at $0.481):
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume during this week, conclusion: none/(historically: bearish)
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.040, slippage to buy: $0.043, conclusion: both sides have built up since last time
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.355 log units. The trendline is at $1.090 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (note: it is not necessary that 'rock bottom' will change until the parabolic uptrend starts, because the trendline is itself rising)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: shortest term unsecure, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

Quick TA update (at $0.460):
- 6H candle color/volume: red candles are taller, conclusion: bearish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.040, slippage to buy: $0.056, conclusion: easier to move to the upside
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.365 log units. The trendline is at $1.060 and rising $0.007 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.404...+0.518)
- Sentiment: fearish, bearish, conclusion: less downside than generally feared
- Prognosis: shortest term don't know, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

ADD: If sentiment is bearish, it indicated that the price will surprise to the upside, and vice versa.

Quick TA update (at $0.450):
- 6H candle color/volume: GREEN rules for last 5 days, although short, conclusion: slightly bullish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.037, slippage to buy: $0.049, conclusion: pressure to the downside, surprise to the upside (when one side has higher figure than the other, it means that price has moved to that direction, eroding the bids/asks - if there is a reversal, it can move quickly to the side with less resistance)
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.384 log units. The trendline is at $1.090 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.404...+0.518)
- Sentiment: weak
- Prognosis: shortest term don't know, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term (3+ months) buy zone

[rpietila]

I could make some use for the following excel work:

- Weekly total fiat/bitcoin trade volume in all of the bitcoin economy (must be compiled with some clever method because exchange numbers are shit)
- Estimated percentage of virgin money (money that is coming to bitcoin economy that has never been part of bitcoin economy) per week
- USD/BTC price change that week

There has been long-term estimates by me that the marketcap grows 4 USD per every 1 USD invested. But it is very dependent on the phase of the cycle - in the top day of the peak, $10 million may pump it up by $1 billion (for 100:1 effect). In the grind down, there is still net investment into Bitcoin (the number of coins is growing and some previous holders are selling so some must be buying), and this metric turns negative such as -1:1 for the week when $20 million was invested but the marketcap nevertheless declined by the same amount.

Has anyone made this before? If not, how about making it for helping the community, or for a small bounty?

Apologies for the many who have volunteered to my projects. I get indundated with PM's. Just apply again and don't take it personally if I don't reply.

[nanobrain]

Quick TA update (at $0.450):
- 6H candle color/volume: GREEN rules for last 5 days, although short, conclusion: slightly bullish

How does green rule when there are more red candles than green? By my count 14 to 13 respectively.

[SlipperySlope]

- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): . . .  (when one side has higher figure than the other, it means that price has moved to that direction, eroding the bids/asks - if there is a reversal, it can move quickly to the side with less resistance)

Although I recognized technical triangles in daily stock charts for decades, it was not until I actually watched realtime bitcoin tick by tick trades with a revealed order book, that I realized why they happen. It is exactly as you say. The dampened oscillations that frequently characterize bitcoin price charts at disparate time resolutions result from price discovery converging towards the trader's consensus.

[SlipperySlope]

By this weekend, the current rally on Huobi 6-hour resolution chart could once again get close to the long term resistance trendline. I drew the line it so that it was penetrated on April 16, but on the Bitstamp price chart that same line held all the back to the November peak. Many chartists are thinking it will breakout in May.

[Alonzo Ewing]

Dan was predicting sub $60 when we were >$100 right before acceleration to ATH.

Do you by chance have a link to this?

[counter]

So from the posts I read from you on the topic of speculation in recent posts.  The short term expectations is pretty much unknown but it is a good buy time, correct?

[wachtwoord]

So from the posts I read from you on the topic of speculation in recent posts.  The short term expectations is pretty much unknown but it is a good buy time, correct?

That is my opinion as well.