btc-arbs.com - Update: dead HYIP, Refund progress: BTC-arbs still doing refunds

[micers]

Ok, so I have been working with the information the site provides to try to duplicate my actual results using the numbers the web site provides.
It is not possible to do that.  The daily percentages being reported are ever so slightly skewed upwards.

The data we are being given is being skewed in such a way that it looks good if you calculate the last couple of days but when you try to work a whole month you will always come up with a *much* bigger projected net than you will actually receive.

I am open to being corrected on this (actually would happily be corrected) but the numbers just don't work.  I've had BTC invested since 2 Feb.  I've pulled all the percentages into a spread sheet and all the transactions.  Considering deposits and earnings and using the following computation.  If the percentages were correct I would have about 1.8 to 2 times as much BTC in the account(s) than I actually do.  


For each day:
       # yesterday's balance + (yesterday's balance * interest)
       # example:
              balance = 1.234
              interest = 0.023
              new balance = (1.234 +( 1.234 * 0.023)) = 1.262382
              if there are new deposits add into new balance here.
Next day

When I use that process I get projected earnings far in excess (about double) of what I have actually seen.  Unfortunately since interest is compounded the projection gets farther and farther from true earnings over time.

The percentages reported are not the actual earnings.  Maybe truncation is taking place.  I think the programmer is making as much from my BTC as I am from the looks of it, or he is inflating the percentages.  My guess is the programmer is rounding down (truncating) when he computes my new balance and rounding up (google roundup function) when he reports daily percentage.  This is the logical way to run the site; however, the net for the site is much larger depending which decimal place is rounded.  We are not being given that information when we ask for it.

We do not have a clear enough picture of what we are paying for the service.

I will be moving 2/5 of my arbitrage investment to https://bitcoin-trader.biz/results.php.  I'm putting the last 1/5 back up on coinbase as a hedge.  Please set me as a referrer if you decide likewise:  https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=micers

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[wdl1908]

what is strange for me is that they don't have anything posted on their front page about the downtime or any explanation of what happened. Happy to see it back again, but at least my bell gave me a ring....I may be wrong proceeding with my withdrawal, but I will stay tuned and if everything goes well, I may re-invest some btc there....still I have my reservations until I will see my btc back in my original wallet.
Cheers

https://btc-arbs.com/results/2014/04/17.html

[dhsc19]

I'm leaving my coins in.  It's a risk I'd hate to lose, but I can still afford.

[dyask]

I'm leaving my coins in.  It's a risk I'd hate to lose, but I can still afford.

Yea, giving a least a few days for the dust to settle should be helpful.   

[jgm_coin]

ps gonna build up to the 50k and head to one of those cocktail parties... bam son

LOL good luck!  I bet you get there and its an empty warehouse with a homeless guy taking a shit on some dead ferral cats

[nightengale]

ps gonna build up to the 50k and head to one of those cocktail parties... bam son

LOL good luck!  I bet you get there and its an empty warehouse with a homeless guy taking a shit on some dead ferral cats

And you would make a lovely conversation partner just about anywhere, I can just tell.

[jgm_coin]

ps gonna build up to the 50k and head to one of those cocktail parties... bam son

LOL good luck!  I bet you get there and its an empty warehouse with a homeless guy taking a shit on some dead ferral cats

And you would make a lovely conversation partner just about anywhere, I can just tell.

You have excellent intuition 

[elend]

For each day:
       # yesterday's balance + (yesterday's balance * interest)
       # example:
              balance = 1.234
              interest = 0.023
              new balance = (1.234 +( 1.234 * 0.023)) = 1.262382
              if there are new deposits add into new balance here.
Next day

I have done simmilar calculations and figured out that you have from the earnings probably also to withdraw 10% as some kind of management/success participation fee/ or name it like you want

But this is only my opinion/idea of how to calculate the numbers

[crazyivan]

There is just one thing which does not add up if they are gonna scam us. After this kind of failure, why would they come back online and let people withdraw their BTC.
They know they are going to lose at least 50% of deposits, we are talking about hundreds if not thousands BTC. Why do that if you are going to run? This is not how scammers think.

It is going to take them months to recover from this incident.

[arahman47]

I Can Deposit 0.50BTC for 5 Days How Much Total I Got.

What is the Minimum Withdrawal


 

[NLNico]

There is just one thing which does not add up if they are gonna scam us. After this kind of failure, why would they come back online and let people withdraw their BTC.
They know they are going to lose at least 50% of deposits, we are talking about hundreds if not thousands BTC. Why do that if you are going to run? This is not how scammers think.

It is going to take them months to recover from this incident.

Most replies here are actually "wow they come back, they must be legit."

Reverse psychology.





I actually do agree with you on this. But I still don't trust them with even a satoshi. Still too many alarm bells.

[cesmak]

For each day:
       # yesterday's balance + (yesterday's balance * interest)
       # example:
              balance = 1.234
              interest = 0.023
              new balance = (1.234 +( 1.234 * 0.023)) = 1.262382
              if there are new deposits add into new balance here.
Next day

I have done simmilar calculations and figured out that you have from the earnings probably also to withdraw 10% as some kind of management/success participation fee/ or name it like you want

But this is only my opinion/idea of how to calculate the numbers

No, they simply truncate from 5 to 8 decimal position digits giving you the result of the percentage calculation with only 4 decimal digits

Example

Capital at a day : 1.17
Percent of the day : 1.5%
Interest calculates : 1.17 * 1.5 / 100 = 0.01755
Interest rounded : 0.0175
New capital at the end of the day : (1.17+0.0175) 1.185 (This is the new capital of the day to calculate new percentage the next day)

Hope to be clear....

Cheers

[danosphere]

My withdrawl from yesterday during the up/down time has successfully completed. Glad I got my BTC, not saying that doesn't mean this will fold in the future.

[jagemo]

For each day:
       # yesterday's balance + (yesterday's balance * interest)
       # example:
              balance = 1.234
              interest = 0.023
              new balance = (1.234 +( 1.234 * 0.023)) = 1.262382
              if there are new deposits add into new balance here.
Next day

I have done simmilar calculations and figured out that you have from the earnings probably also to withdraw 10% as some kind of management/success participation fee/ or name it like you want

But this is only my opinion/idea of how to calculate the numbers

No, they simply truncate from 5 to 8 decimal position digits giving you the result of the percentage calculation with only 4 decimal digits

Example

Capital at a day : 1.17
Percent of the day : 1.5%
Interest calculates : 1.17 * 1.5 / 100 = 0.01755
Interest rounded : 0.0175
New capital at the end of the day : (1.17+0.0175) 1.185 (This is the new capital of the day to calculate new percentage the next day)

Hope to be clear....

Cheers

I'm keeping everything in an excel file. I have a correction field because almost every day i have to deduct 0.0001 from my result.
So maybe if you do that from the first days you will be closer...

So: newbalance=(yesterday's balance + (yesterday's balance * interest))+correctionfield

But this does mean you have to keep track of the correction every day, since 1 month i have like 4 days of 0.0002, 8 days of 0 and the rest of 0.0001 correction...

Steven

[cesmak]

For each day:
       # yesterday's balance + (yesterday's balance * interest)
       # example:
              balance = 1.234
              interest = 0.023
              new balance = (1.234 +( 1.234 * 0.023)) = 1.262382
              if there are new deposits add into new balance here.
Next day

I have done simmilar calculations and figured out that you have from the earnings probably also to withdraw 10% as some kind of management/success participation fee/ or name it like you want

But this is only my opinion/idea of how to calculate the numbers

No, they simply truncate from 5 to 8 decimal position digits giving you the result of the percentage calculation with only 4 decimal digits

Example

Capital at a day : 1.17
Percent of the day : 1.5%
Interest calculates : 1.17 * 1.5 / 100 = 0.01755
Interest rounded : 0.0175
New capital at the end of the day : (1.17+0.0175) 1.185 (This is the new capital of the day to calculate new percentage the next day)

Hope to be clear....

Cheers

I'm keeping everything in an excel file. I have a correction field because almost every day i have to deduct 0.0001 from my result.
So maybe if you do that from the first days you will be closer...

So: newbalance=(yesterday's balance + (yesterday's balance * interest))+correctionfield

But this does mean you have to keep track of the correction every day, since 1 month i have like 4 days of 0.0002, 8 days of 0 and the rest of 0.0001 correction...

Steven

If you use the excel formula TRUNC you can have the exact ammount you have to sum as the daily earning
so if you put the result of the interest calculation in one column (Example Cn, where n means any row) and then in an addiacent column (Example Dn) you put =TRUNC(Cn;4) (formatting both columns as numbers with 8 decimals) an then you use the new claculated column "Dn" to sum the interest earning to the next day capital you can see it works fine.

Cheers

[hypersire]

Since there is a BTC Arbs shill posting in the Bitcoin Trader thread, I thought I'd come over here and bump my previous post regarding why BTC Arbs has a much higher probability of being a straight up ponzi with absolutely no arbitrage trading going on as compared to Bitcoin Trader. All my original points still apply, plus now we also have the site outage. This is very common with HYIPs as they are often attacked by competing HYIPs or hackers (it was previously noted that a lot of the traffic going to BTC Arbs originated from Russia, a hotbed for hacker and HYIP activity).

In addition, is it not strange that on the days when the Bitcoin price was plummeting and Bitcoin Trader produced a small loss as a result, BTC Arbs still managed to produce a gain? Have they ever posted a loss? I guess they must be a division of Goldman Sachs.

Finally, how about transparency? Has anyone ever spoken to the BTC Arbs admin in person? The Bitcoin Trader CEO is known in the Bitcoin community and the company was represented at the Bitcoin conference in Toronto. See here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=393570.msg6250784#msg6250784

I came here because I got fed up with the BTC Arbs shill coming over to the Bitcoin Trader thread with the balls to call that program "shady" while promoting this piece of crap HYIP. Below is my original, thorough post with a whole lot more reasons. Bottom line - I assure you that Bitcoin Trader will be operating for a hell of a lot longer than BTC Arbs!

Have to strongly disagree with you on this one - I've played traditional HYIPs (aka ponzis) for years and btc-arbs definitely has a much higher chance of being a straight up ponzi than Bitcoin Trader. Why?

1) Bitcoin Trader started off as invite only and to this day they do not advertise on any of the HYIP-related forums. Btc Arbs on the other hand advertises on the biggest HYIP blog of them all - MNO:

http://money-news-online.com/blog/2014/02/18/18022014-btcarbs-review-daily-news-hyip-industry/

You will notice even the reviewer on MNO says not to listen to the statements about doing BTC arbitrage as it is commonplace in the HYIP industry to pretend to conduct some real business activity (forex trading is often used).

A true HYIP/Ponzi requires constant money coming in - Btc Arbs is clearly more reliant on new funds coming in than Bitcoin Trader.

In fact, there has been talk that Bitcoin Trader will eventually have to stop new deposits (as arbitrage trading has limitations as to how much money you can realistically move around).

2) Bitcoin Trader has posted losing (i.e. negative return) days. I don't believe Btc Arbs has ever posted a losing day.

3) Mining. The fact that Bitcoin Trader is also involved in mining adds to their legitimacy and provides a safety net of sorts as they have other sources of income (i.e. not only reliant on new money coming in).

4) Fiat conversion. Another safety net for Bitcoin Trader. You make a deposit and it is calculated in USD. Your returns are in USD. This provides stability. Btc Arbs is only dealing in BTC, so they are susceptible to the wild price fluctuations of BTC. For example, say you deposited a large amount of BTC a few weeks back. If they convert it now to supply fiat to their trading activities, they would be getting a considerable amount less would they not?

5) The owner of Bitcoin Trader does not hide his identity and if you have a 20k or greater deposit you can actually meet with him in person and discuss other opportunities with him. The odds are high that he is a legitimate Bitcoin entrepreneur, while nothing is known at all about BTC Arbs' owner.

I spent a good deal of time researching both of these programs and I ended up going with Bitcoin Trader only. I check this thread periodically to see if any new info has surfaced that increases the chances of Btc Arbs being legit as I would love to diversify and put some money with them as well. As of now, I don't feel confident in doing so.

Hope this helps anyone who is considering these two programs. If anyone does decide to join Bitcoin Trader, please use my referral link:

https://bitcoin-trader.biz/

[dyask]

Since there is a BTC Arbs shill posting in the Bitcoin Trader thread, I thought I'd come over here and bump my previous post regarding why BTC Arbs has a much higher probability of being a straight up ponzi with absolutely no arbitrage trading going on as compared to Bitcoin Trader. All my original points still apply, plus now we also have the site outage. This is very common with HYIPs as they are often attacked by competing HYIPs or hackers (it was previously noted that a lot of the traffic going to BTC Arbs originated from Russia, a hotbed for hacker and HYIP activity).

In addition, is it not strange that on the days when the Bitcoin price was plummeting and Bitcoin Trader produced a small loss as a result, BTC Arbs still managed to produce a gain? Have they ever posted a loss? I guess they must be a division of Goldman Sachs.

Finally, how about transparency? Has anyone ever spoken to the BTC Arbs admin in person? The Bitcoin Trader CEO is known in the Bitcoin community and the company was represented at the Bitcoin conference in Toronto. See here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=393570.msg6250784#msg6250784

I came here because I got fed up with the BTC Arbs shill coming over to the Bitcoin Trader thread with the balls to call that program "shady" while promoting this piece of crap HYIP. Below is my original, thorough post with a whole lot more reasons. Bottom line - I assure you that Bitcoin Trader will be operating for a hell of a lot longer than BTC Arbs!

Let's be clear, I don't think anyone here is claiming that there isn't any chance that btc-arbs isn't a scam.   In fact 24 hours ago it sure looked like one.

About your points.

1) Successful arbitrage trading doesn't normally result in losses.  If you get losses it is probably because the trades weren't done at the same time or the market depth wasn't there to support the trades.   That is poor trading.

2) Being in the public isn't an assurance that something isn't a scam, the biggest scams in history have been pulled off in public.   

3) As the size of the arbitrage trading grows, there will be smaller gains.  If both sites are legit, the gains will probably be much more modest in a year. 

I do find bitcoin-trader to be even shadier than btc-arbs, but that is my opinion.  That is mainly do to the lock-in periods and forcing everything to cash, represented in shares with no reinvestment.   Also only trading a 24x7 market during business hours is plain wacky.   Best case it is just really strange. 

So btc-arbs didn't fold-up yet, I guess that ruined your day.   Personally I won't be happy if bitcoin-trader.biz does turn out to be a scam. 

[sunny1]

Since there is a BTC Arbs shill posting in the Bitcoin Trader thread, I thought I'd come over here and bump my previous post regarding why BTC Arbs has a much higher probability of being a straight up ponzi with absolutely no arbitrage trading going on as compared to Bitcoin Trader. All my original points still apply, plus now we also have the site outage. This is very common with HYIPs as they are often attacked by competing HYIPs or hackers (it was previously noted that a lot of the traffic going to BTC Arbs originated from Russia, a hotbed for hacker and HYIP activity).

In addition, is it not strange that on the days when the Bitcoin price was plummeting and Bitcoin Trader produced a small loss as a result, BTC Arbs still managed to produce a gain? Have they ever posted a loss? I guess they must be a division of Goldman Sachs.

Finally, how about transparency? Has anyone ever spoken to the BTC Arbs admin in person? The Bitcoin Trader CEO is known in the Bitcoin community and the company was represented at the Bitcoin conference in Toronto. See here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=393570.msg6250784#msg6250784

I came here because I got fed up with the BTC Arbs shill coming over to the Bitcoin Trader thread with the balls to call that program "shady" while promoting this piece of crap HYIP. Below is my original, thorough post with a whole lot more reasons. Bottom line - I assure you that Bitcoin Trader will be operating for a hell of a lot longer than BTC Arbs!

Let's be clear, I don't think anyone here is claiming that there isn't any chance that btc-arbs isn't a scam.   In fact 24 hours ago it sure looked like one.

About your points.

1) Successful arbitrage trading doesn't normally result in losses.  If you get losses it is probably because the trades weren't done at the same time or the market depth wasn't there to support the trades.   That is poor trading.

2) Being in the public isn't an assurance that something isn't a scam, the biggest scams in history have been pulled off in public.   

3) As the size of the arbitrage trading grows, there will be smaller gains.  If both sites are legit, the gains will probably be much more modest in a year. 

I do find bitcoin-trader to be even shadier than btc-arbs, but that is my opinion.  That is mainly do to the lock-in periods and forcing everything to cash, represented in shares with no reinvestment.   Also only trading a 24x7 market during business hours is plain wacky.   Best case it is just really strange. 

So btc-arbs didn't fold-up yet, I guess that ruined your day.   Personally I won't be happy if bitcoin-trader.biz does turn out to be a scam. 

Well, it is noted here that btc-arbs is not processing large withdrawal requests. Remember that guy that tried to cashout 30 BTC? An affiliate of mine received yesterday 46 BTC back from bitcoin-trader, within 12 hours after the request was made. A few of his shares expired. Even though he was supposed and did indeed re-invest, he cashed out first to see if they honor his request. They did. Anyone here who got more than breadcrumbs back from btc-arbs?

[dyask]

Since there is a BTC Arbs shill posting in the Bitcoin Trader thread, I thought I'd come over here and bump my previous post regarding why BTC Arbs has a much higher probability of being a straight up ponzi with absolutely no arbitrage trading going on as compared to Bitcoin Trader. All my original points still apply, plus now we also have the site outage. This is very common with HYIPs as they are often attacked by competing HYIPs or hackers (it was previously noted that a lot of the traffic going to BTC Arbs originated from Russia, a hotbed for hacker and HYIP activity).

In addition, is it not strange that on the days when the Bitcoin price was plummeting and Bitcoin Trader produced a small loss as a result, BTC Arbs still managed to produce a gain? Have they ever posted a loss? I guess they must be a division of Goldman Sachs.

Finally, how about transparency? Has anyone ever spoken to the BTC Arbs admin in person? The Bitcoin Trader CEO is known in the Bitcoin community and the company was represented at the Bitcoin conference in Toronto. See here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=393570.msg6250784#msg6250784

I came here because I got fed up with the BTC Arbs shill coming over to the Bitcoin Trader thread with the balls to call that program "shady" while promoting this piece of crap HYIP. Below is my original, thorough post with a whole lot more reasons. Bottom line - I assure you that Bitcoin Trader will be operating for a hell of a lot longer than BTC Arbs!

Let's be clear, I don't think anyone here is claiming that there isn't any chance that btc-arbs isn't a scam.   In fact 24 hours ago it sure looked like one.

About your points.

1) Successful arbitrage trading doesn't normally result in losses.  If you get losses it is probably because the trades weren't done at the same time or the market depth wasn't there to support the trades.   That is poor trading.

2) Being in the public isn't an assurance that something isn't a scam, the biggest scams in history have been pulled off in public.   

3) As the size of the arbitrage trading grows, there will be smaller gains.  If both sites are legit, the gains will probably be much more modest in a year. 

I do find bitcoin-trader to be even shadier than btc-arbs, but that is my opinion.  That is mainly do to the lock-in periods and forcing everything to cash, represented in shares with no reinvestment.   Also only trading a 24x7 market during business hours is plain wacky.   Best case it is just really strange. 

So btc-arbs didn't fold-up yet, I guess that ruined your day.   Personally I won't be happy if bitcoin-trader.biz does turn out to be a scam. 

Well, it is noted here that btc-arbs is not processing large withdrawal requests. Remember that guy that tried to cashout 30 BTC? An affiliate of mine received yesterday 46 BTC back from bitcoin-trader, within 12 hours after the request was made. A few of his shares expired. Even though he was supposed and did indeed re-invest, he cashed out first to see if they honor his request. They did. Anyone here who got more than breadcrumbs back from btc-arbs?

If you look back through the thread you will see many pulled out more than a bitcoin and one guy pulled out 3 btc.   I don't know if you consider those crumbs or not. 

Personally, I'm not sure how this will play out as I fully expect a run on the bank now.   The best case is we probably have lower gains for awhile.

[jagemo]

Personally, I'm not sure how this will play out as I fully expect a run on the bank now.   The best case is we probably have lower gains for awhile.

Maybe even better ... If arb opportunitys are limited, the impact on a smaller budget would be bigger. If you have 100K to share your profit, or you have 50K to share almost the same profit ...
Anyway, I'm having some on both, some on other HYIP, as long as most survive i win ...