Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +97043 units

[buwaytress]

I truly have no idea on today's picks. Can't believe it's the first time I'm saying this to be honest, normally, I even see a women's game I'd like to bet on opposite but club football has been notoriously predictable in terms of outcome.

So I'm going to go with an odd selection in the second league in Israel. They've lost or drawn every single game except their last, so let's count on them going on a purple patch!

100 units at Sportsbet.io on Beitar Tel Aviv Bat Yam to WIN vs Hapoel Rishon Lezion @5.40. Betcoin odds: 5.32
Bet ID: 5da8000ba71caa5e99c7ebea

Odds advantage: 1.52%
Units advantage: 8

Running advantage after 132 bets: +5,484.01 (+8)
All-time cumulative: +18,483.54
Running units after 131 bets (24W|107L): +5,259.05 (-100 units)

[1715309681]

1715309681

[1715309681]

1715309681

[buwaytress]

No idea if I made that call right on the dot, or if I just got really really lucky.

The underdogs got ahead, were pegged back, before a crazy second half where they scored to make it 2-1, then got a red card, and yet still found a way to score and let in a goal.

3-2 shock away win. Football is life!

A return to club football deserves a cross-continent parlay! Cardiff hasn't lost at home, while Sheffield have lost half their away games.
PSG should stroll through Nice away, while Granada will continue to confound at home!

Game 1: Cardiff City vs Sheffield Wednesday. Cardiff WIN @2.25. Betcoin odds: 2.29
Game 2: Nice vs PSG. PSG WIN @1.44. Betcoin odds: 1.40
Game 3: Granada vs Osasuna. Granada WIN @2.48. Betcoin odds: 2.40
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @8.04. Betcoin parlay: 7.91
BetID: 5da9518ce1232d8058df2628

Odds advantage: 1.64%
Units advantage: 13

Running advantage after 133 bets: +5,497.01 (+13)
All-time cumulative: +18,496.54
Running units after 132 bets (25W|107L): +5,699.05 (+440 units)

[buwaytress]

Ah great. 1 goal away from winning all legs of parlay. PSG were comfortable even by half time really, so that was no worry, and Granada got their sole goal but continued their amazing form. Cardiff didn't lose their home record but, it was only an equalising goal damn.

What do you think, can Crystal Palace pull a rabbit out of the hat today against City? At 12/1, hard to say no;)

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Crystal Palace to WIN vs Manchester City @12.02. Betcoin odds: 10.69

Odds advantage: 12.44%
Units advantage: 133

And what the hell, let's do a parlay on Watford to get their first win too eh?
Game 1: Eibar vs Barcelona. Barca WIN @1.55. Sportsbet odds: 1.49
Game 2: Tottenham Hotspur vs Watford. Watford WIN @7.31. Sportsbet: 7.00
100 units parlay at Betcoin @11.3305. Sportsbet parlay: 10.43

Odds advantage: 8.63%
Units advantage: 90.05

Total units advantage: 223.05

Running advantage after 135 bets: +5,720.06 (+223.05)
All-time cumulative: +18,719.59
Running units after 133 bets (25W|108L): +5,599.05 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Damn it, damn it, damn it. How do you deal with Watford taking the lead, and then having VAR actually allow a goal for touching Dele Alli's hand (it said shoulder), when the Hornets totally should have taken the lead, doubled it, and booked their first win of the season. But man. Spurs.

Sigh. And Crystal Palace. Well. You had to wait til you were down 2-0 to get yourself in scoring chances?

Anyway. Parlay cross continent again!

Sampdoria vs Roma. Roma WIN @2.18. Betcoin: 2.20
Manchester Utd vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.71. Betcoin: 1.69
Espanyol vs Villareal. Vilalreal WIN @2.49. Betcoin: 2.39
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @9.28. Betcoin parlay: 8.8860
BET id: 5dab6f57a71caa3c4dc87ea5

Odds advantage: 4.43%
Units advantage: 39.4

Running advantage after 136 bets: +5,759.46 (+39.4)
All-time cumulative: +18,758.99
Running units after 135 bets (25W|110L): +5,399.05 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

2 draws, and as we usually do, it's our toughest leg that makes it, and the easiest ones that don't. But it's fine for me. Liverpool keep their unbeaten streak, and we live to fight another day.

Arsenal, can they do it? With price boost, Sportsbet lets us have it at 2/1, parlay that with Fiorentina also at 2/1 and we have a doable 4/1.

Game 1: Sheffield Utd vs Arsenal. Arsenal WIN @2.01. Betcoin: 1.94
Game 2: Brescia vs Fiorentina. Fiorentina WIN @2.00. Betcoin: 2.00
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @4.02. Betcoin parlay @3.88

Bet ID: 5dadec60a71caa7a6ac8d304

Odds advantage: 3.51%
Units advantage: 14

Running advantage after 137 bets: +5,773.46 (+14)
All-time cumulative: +18,772.99
Running units after 136 bets (25W|111L): +5,299.05 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Thanks Arsenal. I was considering a simple Sheffield bet, but you guys fooled me with your recent form. Seems like you really haven't changed at all under Emery. And thanks Fiorentina, for compounding my parlay failure =p

Tonight it's Champs League! What do we do? Bet against Spurs:)

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Red Star Belgrade to WIN vs Tottenham Hotspur @11.92. Betcoin odds: 11.12

Odds advantage: 7.19%
Units advantage: 80

Running advantage after 138 bets: +5,853.46 (+80)
All-time cumulative: +18,852.99
Running units after 137 bets (25W|111L): +5,199.05 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Ouchie in my tummy. Spurs wielded the might of Kane and Son, and smashed it down on us.

Champions League parlay. Liverpool must win, so we auto add it to a 2-leg parlay.

Game 1: Genk vs Liverpool. Pool WIN @1.29. Betcoin odds: 1.28
Game 2: Leipzig vs Zenit St Petersburg. Leipzig WIN @1.67. Betcoin odds: 1.63
Game 3: Slavia Prague vs Barcelona Barca WIN @1.43. Betcoin odds: 1.42
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @3.08. Betcoin parlay: 2.9627

Odds advantage: 3.96%
Units advantage: 11.73

Running advantage after 139 bets: +5,865.19 (+11.73)
All-time cumulative: +18,864.72
Running units after 138 bets (25W|113L): +5,099.05 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Finally some joy. Should have gone ahead and gone with a long parlay the night before and picked all the favourites, but last night a few tricky surprises so we're happy Leipzig got their tough win... Barca also were lucky with an own goal to help them win, and Liverpool, I know the scoreline was 4-1 but we had a very nervous first half, and a disallowed goal that allowed us to keep cool.

Now I have an itch to bet a lot on tonight's games but let's start the day first with an upset by Rangers, who sit atop the league for the first time in so long. Put Porto to the sword!

100 units at Bitcoinrush for Rangers to WIN vs Porto @6.81. Betcoin odds: 6.28

Odds advantage: 8.78%
Units advantage: 53

Running advantage after 140 bets: +5,918.19 (+53)
All-time cumulative: +18,917.72
Running units after 139 bets (26W|113L): +5,307.05 (+208 units)

[buwaytress]

We almost did it really! Such a shame we'll not get more wins because now the more bookies realise how good Rangers are getting under Stevie G, the better their odds will be in future. Hard to get ahead of the curve, keeps me thinking I should go for more handicaps.

In any case, a small parlay to kick off the weekend is in order.

Game 1: Nantes vs Monaco. Monaco WIN @2.66. Betcoin odds: 2.53
Game 2: Southampton vs Leicester. Leicester WIN @2.29. Betcoin odds: 2.26
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @6.09. Sportsbet parlay: 5.7178
BET ID: 5db2b32be0a57fce97603239

Odds advantage: 8.78%
Units advantage: 37.22

Running advantage after 141 bets: +5,955.41 (+37.22)
All-time cumulative: +18,954.94
Running units after 140 bets (26W|114L): +5,207.05 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Wow Leicester. Should have gone for a Jamie Vardy to score, he's really enjoying a renaissance under Brendan Rodgers, even if yes, they had to give him a penalty to get his hattrick still a massive victory and an easy leg of the parlay in the end.

And yes, nice pick to get Monaco to steal the away win. Nantes actually had more chances but maybe Monaco can finally drag themselves out of the past seasons of mediocrity. Lovely parlay to kickstart our weekend!

I got a few games on my mind today but shall we just go with an Aston Villa upset away at City? The villains aren't great but City could get cocky today, let's hope they do!

100 units at Bitcoinrush for Aston Villa to WIN vs Manchester City @31.0. Sportsbet odds: 29.0

Odds advantage: 6.9%
Units advantage: 200

Running advantage after 142 bets: +6,155.41 (+200)
All-time cumulative: +19,154.94
Running units after 141 bets (27W|114L): +5,716.05 (+509 units)

[buwaytress]

A tale of two halves, typical. The villains rode their luck but actually made City look pretty bad in the first half. And then lapse of concentration and you get punished. Never recovered from the Sterling strike on 1st minute of 2nd half.

Liverpool of course gets my nod today and I think bookies are being a bit disrespectful to Spurs with the odds, especially after they meted out a mid-week thrashing in the Champions League.

Still. Let's go for a Norwich upset. Pukki should be on form, United got their first away win but they will struggle without Pogba.

Game 1: Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur. Liverpool WIN @1.55. Sportsbet odds: 1.54
Game 2: Norwich City-Manchester United. Norwich WIN @4.06. Sportsbet odds: 4.00
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.293. Sportsbet parlay: 6.16

Odds advantage: 2.16%
Units advantage: 13.3

Running advantage after 143 bets: +6,168.71 (+13.3)
All-time cumulative: +19,168.24
Running units after 142 bets (27W|115L): +5,616.05 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Eh, who'd have thought OGS could find a team to miss 2 penalties, and still win their 2nd away game in a row eh? Maybe it's good United start to peak after they meet us, so they can help swipe a couple of points or more off City!

Anyway, I'm going to try something new today, on days like today where I absolutely don't feel like picking a team. Won a nice freebet yesterday from Sportsbet (and still won my Liverpool bet!) so using it on a week-long parlay involving mid-week cup games that'll only settle on the weekend's EPL action. No problem, right?

Game 1: Burton Albion vs Leicester City. Leicester WIN @1.38. Betcoin odds: 1.37
Game 2: Liverpool vs Arsenal. Liverpool WIN @1.81. Betcoin odds: 1.75
Game 3: Aston Villa vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.35. Betcoin odds: 1.35
100 units parlay at Sportsbetio @3.37. Betcoin parlay: 3.2366
BET ID: 5db6ae83e0a57f0d1d60d079

Odds advantage: 4.12%
Units advantage: 13.36

Running advantage after 144 bets: +6,182.07 (+13.36)
All-time cumulative: +19,181.6
Running units after 143 bets (27W|116L): +5,516.05 (-100 units)

[JanpriX]

Game 1: Burton Albion vs Leicester City. Leicester WIN @1.38. Betcoin odds: 1.37
Game 2: Liverpool vs Arsenal. Liverpool WIN @1.81. Betcoin odds: 1.75
Game 3: Aston Villa vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.35. Betcoin odds: 1.35
100 units parlay at Sportsbetio @3.37. Betcoin parlay: 3.2366
BET ID: 5db6ae83e0a57f0d1d60d079

Odds advantage: 4.12%
Units advantage: 13.36

Will start to follow your tips here moving forward. Though I'm only betting little amount of BTC. Quick question, will you honestly advice to start tailing you even if you are in middle of the season already or is it better for me to follow you once the new season starts?

[buwaytress]

Game 1: Burton Albion vs Leicester City. Leicester WIN @1.38. Betcoin odds: 1.37
Game 2: Liverpool vs Arsenal. Liverpool WIN @1.81. Betcoin odds: 1.75
Game 3: Aston Villa vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.35. Betcoin odds: 1.35
100 units parlay at Sportsbetio @3.37. Betcoin parlay: 3.2366
BET ID: 5db6ae83e0a57f0d1d60d079

Odds advantage: 4.12%
Units advantage: 13.36

Will start to follow your tips here moving forward. Though I'm only betting little amount of BTC. Quick question, will you honestly advice to start tailing you even if you are in middle of the season already or is it better for me to follow you once the new season starts?

Hey JanpriX, thank you for the follow!

Just a few things to note before you rush in;)!

1. I bet very, very casually. When I started this last season (2018), each unit was 1000 satoshi but price has since about doubled so now 1 unit is 500 satoshi (you can find that explanation in OP). So basically my 100 units is a guide, you can choose however you want to number those units, but for me now the average bet then means it's worth around $4 or $5.

2. This isn't so much a tipster thread as it is a thread to demonstrate how much more you can win simply by taking the time to compare several bookies and choosing the one with the best odds or lowest margins. For example, just check the last City upset I picked when they lost to Wolves: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5011930.msg52667961#msg52667961

Just by choosing Bitcoinrush who offered odds of 21.66, over the next closest bookie, Sportsbet.io with odds of 17.00, I won an extra 466 units. I didn't bet differently, I simply took 5 minutes to compared odds!

3. I'm a longshot better, but I do watch for form and look for "value" bets. For example Wolves 21/1 to win? I think if they played 20 games against City, they would win a couple at least, so THAT is value for me! So you can see I have a very poor win ratio, but most of my wins are "big"

Good luck and don't follow me if your life depended on it! Just enjoy the game like I do;)

Oh and to answer your question, doesn't matter when to tail.

[inthelongrun]

Nice thread. I will start to follow too. Big point on the slightest odds difference. In Sportsbet, most of the time I only have 1 bet per sport daily. Early this year, I started to realize that Sportsbet's price booster matters in the long run. I cannot diversify my bets per sport and I have to be more careful with my picks but I did saved good amount compared to before. I seldom do parlays though, too busy irl to analyze.   

Your options for now are Sportsbet, Betcoin, BitcoinRush and Fairlay or did I miss a thing? I'll try some of your parlays.

[buwaytress]

Nice thread. I will start to follow too. Big point on the slightest odds difference. In Sportsbet, most of the time I only have 1 bet per sport daily. Early this year, I started to realize that Sportsbet's price booster matters in the long run. I cannot diversify my bets per sport and I have to be more careful with my picks but I did saved good amount compared to before. I seldom do parlays though, too busy irl to analyze.   

Your options for now are Sportsbet, Betcoin, BitcoinRush and Fairlay or did I miss a thing? I'll try some of your parlays.

Well done you picked exactly the four bookies I currently use to compare! I know Nitrogensports is popular in this forum but they use the exact same provider as BitcoinRush but with far higher margins, so I even stopped using them to compare.

I know also that other seasoned gamblers here like SyGambler or DarkStar or LFC_Bitcoin or Trofo (I realise now I could rattle off on a list haha) will probably know better bookies for other options like Asian handicaps or North American sports, but since the majority of my bets are on the big European leagues (and I love Asian and African tourneys too actually), these are my four bookies.

My observations: Fairlay and BitcoinRush are the absolute winners in general for long odds. Sportsbet can have poor odds but with their daily price boost, it can usually beat the others out, especially if you choose a good leg on a parlay. Betcoin actually seems to vary wildly, but they have the most lines when it comes to exotic leagues or lower leagues, and sometimes can give you really smashing odds. This is the option I use most for parlays because they seem to have better overall odds when it comes to favourites or slight underdogs (which form my parlay in general).

I also bet only 1 bet daily, actually. I DO put 2 or even 3 down on bigger days sometimes but normally as a "hedge" to my longshot bets haha.

Remember, it's all for fun. I don't consider myself and expert like some tipsters, and this thread, as I like to remind, is more about gaining odds advantage and how big it matters in the long run. It's simply about not leaving money on the table!

[SyGambler]

I know also that other seasoned gamblers here like SyGambler or DarkStar or LFC_Bitcoin or Trofo (I realise now I could rattle off on a list haha) will probably know better bookies for other options like Asian handicaps or North American sports, but since the majority of my bets are on the big European leagues (and I love Asian and African tourneys too actually), these are my four bookies.

I would say the perfect answer for this is to use as many books as you can as long as they are trusted , there is no best book IMO and what's considered the worst book may have best odds rarely ( of course not considering nitrogen since all what they offer is pinnacle + extra juice )
I remember once placing a bet with directbet while they were having better odds than all the other bitcoin books , and directbet odds were really terrible with insane margins but that was the single time I had a bet with them while they are offering the best odds

sometimes books take time to adjust the odds and if you take advantage of these delays you will have great value

[buwaytress]

I would say the perfect answer for this is to use as many books as you can as long as they are trusted , there is no best book IMO and what's considered the worst book may have best odds rarely ( of course not considering nitrogen since all what they offer is pinnacle + extra juice )
I remember once placing a bet with directbet while they were having better odds than all the other bitcoin books , and directbet odds were really terrible with insane margins but that was the single time I had a bet with them while they are offering the best odds

sometimes books take time to adjust the odds and if you take advantage of these delays you will have great value

Spot on, Sy. And I think to be perfectly fair to other bookies -- I probably would take the time to view them more often, had I the time. And that's not to say I don't, either. It's always nice to check out the other bookies every now and then, and keep yourself updated, especially if you bet frequently. It all adds up in the long-term, and if you're a compound gambler, then every tiny percentage point gain adds up even more!

Really appreciate everyone's input here!

[buwaytress]

The English League Cup. Always had mixed feelings about this one and we've already booked Liverpool in yesterday's bet yet to settle but I'm going to go for a tricky parlay today. Watford should have won the game against Spurs, and maybe even nicked a goal in their last draw. 10 winless games in the league, so maybe they get their joy in cup games like they did last season. And maybe Everton's poor form continues?

And if that's not risky enough, let's parlay it with a much-needed win for Atletico in La Liga.

Game 1: Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid. Atletico WIN @1.76. Sportsbet odds: 1.69
Game 2: Everton vs Watford. Watford WIN @5.30. Sportsbet odds: 5.20
100 units parlay at Betcoin @9.328. Sportsbet parlay: 8.788

Odds advantage: 6.11%
Units advantage: 13.36

Edit: adding City, DUH.
100 units at Bitcoinrush on Southampton to WIN vs Manchester City @26.53. Betcoin odds: 24.7. Sportsbet odds: 15.98 (with boost) only!
Odds advantage: 7.41%
Units advantage: 183

Total units advantage: 196.36

Running advantage after 146 bets: +6,378.43 (+196.36)
All-time cumulative: +19,377.96
Running units after 143 bets (27W|116L): +5,516.05 (1 game TBD)

[buwaytress]

Strike on both bets and on all legs! Watford didn't win and have 1 less competition to worry about, but Atletico conceded 10 minutes from time anyway, so we already lost that parlay before Watford took to the field.

Southampton also to their credit didn't lose, but letting Otamendi score? Heh. Anyway, the good news is the Foxes completed 1 leg of our earlier parlay, and we'll see if Liverpool carries us to the final leg on the weekend.

But for today, I'm doubling down on Liverpool, and parlaying with Napoli (I want them to do well in Serie A too, even if they're in our group for CL).

Game 1: Liverpool vs Arsenal. Liverpool WIN @2.01. Betcoin odds: 2.04
Game 2: Napoli vs Atalanta. Napoli WIN @2.16. Betcoin odds: 2.10
100 units at Sportsbet.io @4.34. Betcoin odds: 4.28
Bet ID: 5db94e2c4cdf10ea75c5d177

Odds advantage: 1.4%
Units advantage: 6

Running advantage after 147 bets: +6,384.43 (+6)
All-time cumulative: +19,383.96
Running units after 145 bets (27W|118L): +5,316.05 (-200 units, 1 game TBD)