Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +100,003 units

[buwaytress]

We almost won, didn't we now? United were sorry, sorrier than I've seen them. But I'm happy, cause this could make them stronger for the City clash, but before that, as promised, we have to back Burnley to beat City. They look so bad without good old Aguero, even Sterling and a super de Bruyne could only salvage 1 point. Maybe Burnley remind City of their frailties AGAIN.

And why not back Palace to win the other game with a Marseille away win in Ligue 1?
Game 1: Crystal Palace-AFC Bournemouth. Palace WIN @2.29. Sportsbet odds: 2.25
Game 2: Angers Sco-Olympique Marseille. Marseille WIN @2.54. Sportsbet odds: 2.48
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.8166. Sportsbet parlay: 5.58

Odds advantage: 4.24%
Units advantage: 23.66

100 units at Sportsbet on Burnley to WIN vs Manchester City @11.70. Betcoin odds: 10.80
Bet ID: 5de64945cdc6f15bc51f8a31

Odds advantage: 9.26%
Units advantage: 100

Total units advantage: 123.66

Running advantage after 182 bets: +8,886.04 (+123.66)
All-time cumulative: +21,886.57
Running units after 180 bets (33W|147L): +8,452.12 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Ouchie on Burnley. To be fair to them, they were really pushing the City defence with the high balls, but to be also fair to City, the way Burnley were attacking, there was never any threat. Even the last goal was more about how shitty City defence is rather than how dangerous Burnley are.

But how about the Palace win? I love my Harry Wilson and Solanke but on nights when Zaha and co are on fire, their play is irresistible. Sakho red card tells me new EPL rules on fierce tackles are something to watch out for but glad we pulled that parlay down.

Also, corrected the calculations for yesterday.

Anyway, Sportsbet special looks really interesting. Leicester are on fire now but Watford are the surprise package too, and the Foxes even if they win will probably take a goal, so 2-1 would be nice to book us a win.
100 units at Sportsbet on Watford +1.5, Over 1.5 goals, Over 8.5 corners, Over 2.5 yellows @5.00. Bet ID: 5de75ab08133164931223a19

Betcoin odds:
Watford +1.5: 1.87
Goals Over 1.5: 1.19
Corners over 8.5: 1.31
Yellow over 2.5: 1.36
Theoretical parlay: 3.9645

Odds advantage: 26.12%
Units advantage: 103.55

Running advantage after 183 bets: +8,989.59 (+103.55)
All-time cumulative: +21,990.12
Running units after 182 bets (34W|148L): +8,833.78 (+381.66 units)

[buwaytress]

Watford, seriously, I don't even know why I still stick with them. Sure, they gave me a 5/1 win some time back with the Arsenal draw but strange to say, Leicester isn't Arsenal at all. Watford needed to score and they couldn't muster more than 1 shot the entire game, never mind it was off target. Something needs to change there or they're headed back down. Doesn't look good.

Qatar, we have such good memories. Avoiding them lately because odds have not been good but thanks to the Saudis overperforming recently, I think the bookies think they might have a chance. So parlay with Italian Coppa home wins?

Game 1: Cagliari vs Sampdoria. Cagliari WIN @1.95. Sportsbet odds: 1.90
Game 2: Parma vs Frosinone. Parma WIN @1.75. Sportsbet odds: 1.72
Game 3: Saudi Arabia vs Qatar. Qatar WIN @1.82. Sportsbet odds: 1.75
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.2107. Sportsbet parlay: 5.719

Odds advantage: 8.6%
Units advantage: 49.17

Running advantage after 184 bets: +9,038.76 (+49.17)
All-time cumulative: +22,039.29
Running units after 183 bets (34W|149L): +8,733.78 (-100units)

[buwaytress]

The Italians won as expected but Qatar let me down. I thought the Saudis have been overperforming but they really found that extra grit to take the win, if at the cost of a niggly foul-filled game, but hey, every style deserves to be considered. Good for them.

A bit of a quiet Friday, but the weekend is packed. I actually think Atleti could lose tonight and their performance so far has been disappointing. But I'll take a chance on them today and parlay with a few "should win" ties.

Game 1: Villareal vs Atletico Madrid. Atleti WIN @2.34. Betcoin odds: 2.25
Game 2: Lille vs Stade Brestois. Lille WIN @1.39. Betcoin odds: 1.39
Game 3: Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II Tilburg. Ajax WIN at HT @1.39. Betcoin odds: 1.39
Game 4: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha Berlin. Frankfurth WIN @1.83. Betcoin odds: 1.84
100 units at Sportsbet @8.23 Betcoin parlay: 7.9988
Bet ID: 5dea0a97925739393440e1dd

Odds advantage: 2.89%
Units advantage: 23.12

Running advantage after 185 bets: +9,061.88 (+23.12)
All-time cumulative: +22,062.41
Running units after 184 bets (34W|150L): +8,633.78 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Two draws on Hertha and Villareal killed us, but to be fair, the draws were almost expected, so I suppose I'm not as upset than if Hertha pulled off the upset.

What did upset me was Willem II beating Ajax haha. I hate when I don't see that coming.

Anyway, Gladbach have the chance to prove today that they're no fluke. Will they do it against Bayern? I'm going to hope so. Crystal Palace the underdog against Watford? No way, they won with 10 men, they're going to do it even without Sakho. And shall we top it up with Liverpool?

Game 1: Bournemouth vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.45. Sportsbet: 1.42
Game 2: Watford vs Crystal Palace. Palace WIN @3.16. Sportsbet: 3.09
Game 3: Borussia Monchengladbach vs Bayern Munich. Gladbach WIN @5.08. Sportsbet: 4.80
100 units parlay at Betcoin @23.2765. Sportsbet parlay: 21.0614

Odds advantage: 10.52%
Units advantage: 221.51

And I took an early bet about a week ago, knowing odds would drop, so I got a good deal haha on this Manchester derby!

100 units at Fairlay on Manchester United to WIN vs Manchester City @10.981. Betcoin odds: 9.17

Odds advantage: 19.75%
Units advantage: 181.1

Total units advantage: 402.61

Running advantage after 187 bets: +9,464.49 (+402.61)
All-time cumulative: +22,465.02
Running units after 185 bets (34W|151L): +8,633.78 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Ole IN. I'll never be happy if United are on the rise, but no worries, this win doesn't mean they're on the up. But any team that plays youth and wins deserves it I say, and seeing City 14 points below us is just something to savour. Pity about Palace though, they really should have taken advantage of Watford's inability to score. It would have been an epic win for us, picking Gladbach!

Anyway, I'll pick the overperformers who punched my Qatar out last time around, parlay it with a tough Wolves away win (but I know they can do it!) and because I'm a masochist, I'll put in Aston Villa to upset the Foxes today.

Game 1: Aston Villa vs Leicester City. Villa WIN @4.79. Sportsbet odds: 4.70
Game 2: Brighton & Hove Albion vs Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves WIN @2.69. Sportsbet odds: 2.64
Game 3: Bahrain vs Saudi Arabia. Saudi WIN @1.69. Sportsbet odds: 1.71

100 units parlay at Betcoin @21.7758 Sportsbet parlay: 21.2178

Odds advantage: 2.63%
Units advantage: 181.1

Total units advantage: 55.8

Running advantage after 188 bets: +9,520.29 (+55.
All-time cumulative: +22,520.82
Running units after 187 bets (35W|152L): +9,531.88 (+898.1 units)

[buwaytress]

When was the last time I lost all the legs of my parlay? My sense of teams can get so bad sometimes. Wolves dominated but they wouldn't have much to complain about had they lost too. Bahrain took their revenge. And Leicester momentum can't seem to be stopped at the moment.

Only the one premier league game today, but there's not much point in betting as the odds are over 2/1 for Arsenal away. Surely they have to win this against the Hammers? But I can't figure out right now who's the sorrier of the two. But well, the bookies make up my mind for me.

Game 1: West Ham United-Arsenal. Hammers WIN @3.27. Sportsbet odds: 3.18
Game 2: VfB Stuttgart-1. FC Nuremberg. Stuttgart WIN @1.57. Sportsbet odds: 1.55
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.1139. Sportsbet parlay: 4.929

Odds advantage: 3.75%
Units advantage: 18.49

Running advantage after 189 bets: +9,538.78 (+18.49)
All-time cumulative: +22,539.31
Running units after 188 bets (35W|153L): +9,431.88 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

West Ham at one point had 8 shots to Arsenal's 2, and leading 1-0 even with only 35% possession seemed like things were going well for our parlay, but then Pepe woke up, so did Auba, and Ljungberg got his first win and Arsenal's first away win after waiting over 2 months. Football eh?

Champions League tonight. Napoli can't possibly lose, so Liverpool must not lose to Salzburg, who have been able to score in every group game so far. I'm taking a slight risk and taking a -1 handicap instead for better odds. Meanwhile Barca are expected to field a weakened side and the odds show. But a parlay of both look too good to resist.

Game 1: Salzburg vs Liverpool. Liverpool -1 WIN @2.34. Betcoin odds: 2.35
Game 2: Inter Milan vs Barcelona. Barca WIN @5.71. Betcoin odds: 5.50
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @13.36. Betcoin parlay: 12.925
Bet ID: 5def47d0986973be26ca763d

Odds advantage: 3.37%
Units advantage: 43.5

Running advantage after 190 bets: +9,582.28 (+43.5)
All-time cumulative: +22,582.81
Running units after 189 bets (35W|154L): +9,331.88 (-100 units)

[JanpriX]

Woohoooo, congratulations brother on your win in Sportsbet.io's promo. I'm hoping that you already packed your things (and documents) for your trip.  Also, I'm posting here because this is, technically, your thread and most probably you'll be bombarded by messages in the Sportsbet.io's thread. Best pick on that total goals. You really nailed. 

[buwaytress]

Woohoooo, congratulations brother on your win in Sportsbet.io's promo. I'm hoping that you already packed your things (and documents) for your trip.  Also, I'm posting here because this is, technically, your thread and most probably you'll be bombarded by messages in the Sportsbet.io's thread. Best pick on that total goals. You really nailed. 

Thanks a lot JanpriX, I really appreciate the kind words. Such a bonus, was watching the Barca game, goal scored in the 87th minute to win my parlay AND get the full 23 goals. It was the 2nd last game to finish too so it was weird praying for them not to score again haha.

Things are being packed but my focus is now on finishing work ahead of time, always a bit difficult with kids, luckily it's the holidays for them too!

[buwaytress]

What a night! We not only booked last night's parlay in a big way, but Ansu Fati's late, late goal won me a trip to the Club World Cup finals to see my beloved Reds, courtesy Sportbet.io!

I added Sportsbet.io to the list of bookies I list here, from several months back. Their daily price boost is usually always enough to make them the best odds on parlays (I believe it's a 7% boost on price or somewhere), since every leg is multiplied by that extra boost essentially! I also don't always mention it but many of the constant promos by them mean I have freebets regularly, so the experience is very +EV. Now of course, to top it off, will fly free to watch Liverpool hopefully add the only trophy missing in their cabinet, as someone put it!

What a night, but back to business. I'm going for 2 major upsets here. Spurs, because Mourinho loves Champions League and he will want to show off with a Bayern scalp, even if it won't change the qualification outcome. Bayern, after losing to Gladbach, on the other hand, will be stinging to win this just for confidence. Both sides are equal to the task, I think the 7/1 is big value, even without Kane and Dele Alli.

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Spurs to WIN vs Bayern Munich @7.64. Betcoin odds: 7.55
Odds advantage: 1.19%
Units advantage: 9

Lokomotiv actually won me a major upset already the very first game when they beat Bayer, but I saw the way they played in the last game and were seriously good, just really unlucky. They don't deserve to be out of Europe, so if they somehow beat Atletico by 2 goals AND Leverkusen lose to Juve, they could still proudly drop to Europa.

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Lokomotiv Moskow to WIN vs Atletico Madrid @27.71. Betcoin odds: 24.43
Odds advantage: 13.43%
Units advantage: 328

And to round off today, let's pick a tricky parlay:
Game 1: Dinamo Zagreb vs Manchester City. City WIN HT @2.09. Betcoin odds: 2.08
Game 2: Leverkusen vs Juventus. Juventus WIN @3.84. Betcoin odds: 3.76
Game 3: Club Brugge vs Real Madrid. Madrid WIN @2.22. Betcoin odds: 2.24
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @17.82. Betcoin parlay: 17.52
Bet ID: 5df0b3cb9257397560419919
Odds advantage: 1.71%
Units advantage: 30

Total units advantage: 367

Running advantage after 193 bets: +9,949.28 (+367)
All-time cumulative: +22,949.81
Running units after 190 bets (36W|154L): +10,557.88 (+1226 units)

[Trofo]

Big congratulations man, have fun on the trip I am glad it went to one of the regular degenerates loitering in the gambling section and not some "unknown" account.

I love your ticket, I am playing something similar.

However, I really think you missed your upsets tonight. Atletico Madrid needs this one to progress trough and even though they are in a bad patch, they should dispatch Lokomotiv.

I read somewhere that Mou intends to rest a lot of players tonight and I had a feeling that he is afraid to go up against wounded Bayern with his best team. He would probably also lose and that could have much bigger impact on moral than if he losses with some kids from youth school. We shall see.

[JanpriX]

Woohoooo, congratulations brother on your win in Sportsbet.io's promo. I'm hoping that you already packed your things (and documents) for your trip.  Also, I'm posting here because this is, technically, your thread and most probably you'll be bombarded by messages in the Sportsbet.io's thread. Best pick on that total goals. You really nailed. 

Thanks a lot JanpriX, I really appreciate the kind words. Such a bonus, was watching the Barca game, goal scored in the 87th minute to win my parlay AND get the full 23 goals. It was the 2nd last game to finish too so it was weird praying for them not to score again haha.

Things are being packed but my focus is now on finishing work ahead of time, always a bit difficult with kids, luckily it's the holidays for them too!

Oh boy, doing work at this time of the month and then suddenly you got a quick vacation/tour coming up this Dec 20, must be hard.  . If you need any help, I can provide some. Especially when it comes to betting. Betting=work LOL

It would be nice if you could take a picture and post it here in the forum when you're actually on the stadium and watching the game. I'm sure it would be an ecstatic moment for you and your partner. Have a safe trip brother.

[buwaytress]

Thank toy JanPriX I'll of course share 1 pic haha. With the Sportsbet team hopefully! And Trofo again, absolutely right I picked the bad upsets. I knew the Spurs side was weakened and I knew Atleti needed to go through but I hoped (and of course was proven wrong) that pressure would make them nervous at home. Was wrong.

City also did NOT win the first half, otherwise the parlay would have saved me... such is the game!

A bit lazy today so I might add a short parlay but for now, struggling Feyenoord to beat struggling Porto?

100 units at Bitcoinrush for Feyenoord to WIN vs Porto @8.66. Betcoin odds: 7.80

Odds advantage: 11.02%
Units advantage: 86

Running advantage after 194 bets: +1,035.28 (+86)
All-time cumulative: +23,035.81
Running units after 193 bets (36W|157L): +10,257.88 (-300 units)

[buwaytress]

That was a weird one for me. They let in 2 fast goals, then score 2 more of their own, and then give away an own goal, all in the first third of the game. Then no more goals for the rest of the match, almost as if they simply weren't interested anymore.

Anyway, as I thought, a lot of minor upsets last night but too many dangerous draws would have ruined our parlay.

I have a nagging feeling about my parlay tonight but let's see if Hull can keep some away form at bay while Lille and Hoffenheim maintain theirs:

Game 1: Lille-Montpellier. Lille WIN @1.77. Sportsbet odds: 1.75
Game 2: Charlton Athletic-Hull City. Hull WIN @1.96. Sportsbet odds: 1.93
Game 3: Hoffenheim-Augsburg. Hoffenheim WIN @1.86. Sportsbet odds: 1.85
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.4527. Sportsbet parlay: 6.2484

Odds advantage: 3.27%
Units advantage: 20.43

Running advantage after 195 bets: +1,055.71 (+20.43)
All-time cumulative: +23,056.24
Running units after 194 bets (36W|158L): +10,157.88 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Geez, can't even NOT win properly these days, haha. Seriously, feels worse to draw than to lose at times, when the tide is really in your favour. Nevermind, we're still ahead and over 100% in profit by playing every day with a 1% of bankroll. Still a record I hope to keep at the end of the season, but let's see.

Liverpool are against rock bottom Watford and we know we've always stumbled in the past but we have a very different group of players this time around and we'll want to pile the pressure on to Leicester so I'll take a parlay with another Liverpool HT win, mix in a Bournemouth +2 Handicap and a standard Fulham upset at Brentford in the Championship!

Game 1: Liverpool vs Watford. Liverpool WIN HT @1.50. Betcoin odds: 1.52
Game 2: Chelsea vs Bournemouth. Bournemouth +2 @1.74. Betcoin odds: 1.76
Game 3: Brentford vs Fulham. Fulham WIN @3.89. Betcoin odds: 3.71
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @10.15. Betcoin parlay: 9.9249
Bet ID: 5df4b9a6813316364c23aedb

Odds advantage: 2.27%
Units advantage: 22.51

Running advantage after 196 bets: +1,078.22 (+22.51)
All-time cumulative: +23,078.75
Running units after 195 bets (36W|158L): +10,057.88 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Well, that was nice. Didn't even need the Bournemouth handicap as it turns out. Knew Chelski were terrible but not that kind of terrible. Lampard was spot on: too slow and too safe. Used to fear Willian but he's looking so out of sorts.

In any case, Fulham expectedly lost, so we lost out parlay.

It's actually pretty weird that we're now looking at bets against City that are not even 10/1 anymore. And this is Arsenal who are surely at time more brittle than United?

Anyway, let's go for a simple Spurs Arsenal parlay:
Game 1: Wolves vs Spurs. Spurs WIN @2.47. Sportsbet odds: 2.43
Game 2: Arsenal vs City. Arsenal WIN @6.33. Sportsbet odds: 6.10
100 units parlay at Betcoin @15.6351. Sportsbet parlay: 14.823

Odds advantage: 5.48%
Units advantage: 81.21

And since we're fond of upsets, shall we pair Everton 5/1 with Gladbach 2/1 for over 10/1? I'll add the betslip here a bit later. On the road now.

Running advantage after 197 bets: +1,159.43 (+81.21)
All-time cumulative: +23,159.86
Running units after 196 bets (36W|159L): +9,957.88 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Lesson. Don't get excited and throw in last minute bets on mobile when you're on a train and can't really read what's going on. Arsenal were severely poor, and even if Everton got the win, our Gladbach stumbled. Karmaic scales adjusting I suppose!

Shall we go for a really simple England-Italy parlay?

Game 1: Crystal Palace-Brighton & Hove Albion. Palace WIN @2.65. Sportsbet: 2.60
Game 2: Cagliari vs Lazio. Lazio WIN @1.87. Sportsbet: 1.85
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.9555. Sportsbet parlay: 4.81

Odds advantage: 3.02%
Units advantage: 14.55

Running advantage after 199 bets: +1,173.98 (+14.55)
All-time cumulative: +23,174.41
Running units after 198 bets (36W|162L): +9,757.88 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

Lazio actually laboured to get 2 goals in injury time and get the expected win (nice!) but Palace just can't seem to find a way to convert their attractive football into victories. A draw, exciting but still short of 3 points. Leaves us out in the cold.

Aston Villa will face a U23 Liverpool team today but if Klopp has everyone chomping at the bit to get a place in the squad, could we hope for an upset? I think for sure. And why not make life more difficult by throwing erratic Dortmund into the mix?

Game 1: Aston Villa vs Liverpool. Pool WIN @6.99 (actual 6.60). BEtcoin odds: 6.64
Game 2: BVB vs RB Leipzig. BVB WIN @2.15. Betcoin odds: 2.17
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @15.0285 (actual 14.19). Betcoin parlay: 14.4088
Bet ID: 5df890b1f3240e22aa9dcb07

NOTE: I accidentally bet above at 6.60 odds, but price boost actually put liverpool at 6.99. I forgot to activate it is all. So if we win, I'll put the actual payout achieved... but for here will put the prospective odds advantage. Odds keep dropping though, currently at 6.3x!

Odds advantage: 4.4%
Units advantage: 61.97

Running advantage after 200 bets: +1,235.95 (+61.97)
All-time cumulative: +23,236.38
Running units after 199 bets (36W|163L): +9,657.88 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

That was a massacre! It was more than expected of course, but to be honest, had we scored on the initial stages when we were more dangerous, I would have to say that could have let pressure and fear creep into Villa. Otherwise, our defence and keeper were clearly Academy quality... and Villa are a top class team!

Not that our other leg fared any better. BVB let a 2-0 lead slip and even Sancho could only restore a leading position for a few minutes. Must be so frustrating to be them right now.

I'm wary of cup games in other leagues today. Great picks if you have time to look at lineups but searching through foreign language news I don't got the time for the coming week so I'm going to start a longish parlay today with Liverpool to beat a really tough Monterrey side by 2 goals, results to settle on Liverpool's next game on Boxing Day!

Game 1: Monterrey vs Liverpool. Liverpool to WIN -2 @2.00. Sportsbet odds: 1.96
Game 2: Leicester City vs Liverpool. Liverpool to WIN @2.22. Sportsbet odds: 2.18
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.44. Sportsbet parlay: 4.2728

Odds advantage: 3.91%
Units advantage: 16.72

Running advantage after 201 bets: +1,252.67 (+16.72)
All-time cumulative: +23,253.10
Running units after 200 bets (36W|164L): +9,557.88 (-100 units)