Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +100,003 units

[buwaytress]

Crapped out on both legs, thin selections today but with Watford in such blistering form (notwithstanding that they let a 3-0 lead come to today's replay!) it should be simple to bet on them again.

But what's this? We got a League One matchup that is begging for an upset, but will require both teams to throw form out the window. Bristol are ravaged by injury and bad luck to first choice keeper, but they romped 2-2 last time around so why not go for it?

Game 1: Coventry vs Bristol Rovers. Bristol WIN @8.56. Sportsbet odds: 8.10
Game 2: Tranmere vs Watford. Watford WIN @1.53. Sportsbet odds: 1.50
100 units parlay at Betcoin @13.10. Sportsbet parlay: 12.15

Odds advantage: 9.79%
Units advantage: 95 units

Running advantage after 225 bets: +3,141.03 (+95)
All-time cumulative: +25,140.56
Running units after 224 bets (38W|186L): +9,623.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Just can't catch a break! Watford cancelled but our big leg folded anyway. Have we had enough of underdogs in FA Cup? Nay, not so soon. Wolves, you've shown everyone a good time, why not show Ole the door out of FA Cup?

Game 1: Man Utd vs Wolves. Wolves WIN @4.79. Sportsbet odds: 4.65
Game 2: Carlisle vs Cardiff. Cardiff WIN @1.57. Sportsbet odds: 1.55
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.5203. Sportsbet parlay: 7.2075

Odds advantage: 4.34%
Units advantage: 31.28 units

Running advantage after 226 bets: +3,172.31 (+31.28)
All-time cumulative: +25,171.84
Running units after 225 bets (38W|186L): +9,523.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Damn you Mata. Good goal though, but it's tough to keep watching exciting teams like Wolves play and still lose. That Traore is a beast, so scary seeing him and I'll never forget him dispossessing Mendy...

Right then, cup games are killing me all over the place, so I'm now going to go for away victories to the somewhat favourites. Enough of underdog action, right?

Game 1: Parma vs Roma. Roma WIN @1.91. Sportsbet odds: 1.86
Game 2: PAU vs Bordeaux. Bordeaux WIN @1.81. Sportsbet odds: 1.79
Game 3: Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens. Athens WIN @1.89. Sportsbet odds: 1.87
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.5339. Sportsbet parlay: 6.2259

Odds advantage: 4.95%
Units advantage: 30.8 units

Running advantage after 227 bets: +3,203.11 (+30.
All-time cumulative: +25,202.64
Running units after 226 bets (38W|188L): +9,423.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Horrendous draws killed our legs, but it was anyway tough away games to negotiate, hence the value in the bets. That's what I tell myself anyway haha. So we fall down quite far from our 5-digit unit count, but that's perfectly all right for us.

Thank god for the Prem League, I've got quite a few parlays I'll want to look at later, and of course we want Palace to win, haha. But also we think Newcastle have a shot at this at home to Chelsea, who will want to go a month without losing but won't =p

100 units at Sportsbet.io on Newcastle to WIN vs Chelsea @6.78. Betcoin odds: 6.40
Bet ID: 5e22ccf4cfd70721746afa02
Odds advantage: 5.93%
Units advantage: 38 units

Will update here with maybe an additional bet or two or three.

2 more underdogs, please, 100 units each:
Palace to WIN vs Man City @27.5. Betcoin odds: 25.6
Odds advantage: 7.42%
Units advantage: 190 units

Fiorentina to WIN vs Napoli @5.53. Sportsbet odds: 5.20
Odds advantage: 6.35%
Units advantage: 33 units

Total unit advantage: +261
I'll come in and edit post tomorrow to show odds and unit advantages.

Running advantage after 230 bets: +3,474.11 (+261)
All-time cumulative: +25,473.64
Running units after 227 bets (38W|189L): +9,323.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Now that's what I call a night of bloody upsets! I'll now edit yesterday's post now to show the right numbers and units, 2 wins out of 3 remind me why we love the underdogs, 1 94th minute winner, we lost the Palace bet but it was another injury time winner to peg City back even more, so I love it anyway!

Tonight, shall we start a long parlay that settles with Wolves 4 nights later first?

Game 1: Manchester United at Liverpool WIN -1.25 @2.02. Sportsbet odds: 1.92
Game 2: Wolves vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN -1 @2.0. Sportsbet odds: 1.98
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.04. Sportsbet parlay: 3.80

Odds advantage: 6.32%
Units advantage: 24 units

We'll look for another Liverpool parlay in a bit, but first, let's also go for a shock Bayern loss in Bundesliga as new manager Klinsmann at Hertha tries to put the German capital on the map. Leipzig will want it to happen too, and while I don't want RB to win Bundesliga, I would like Bayern to not get it either. So:

100 units on Hertha Berlin to WIN vs Bayern Munich @9.10. Sportsbet odds: 8.80.

Odds advantage: 3.41%
Units advantage: 30 units

And the 5/1 Pool parlay with U23s, catch em while live - unit advantages added in a bit!
Game 1: Liverpool FC-Manchester United. Pool WIN @1.48   OPEN. Sportsbet odds: 1.40
Game 2: Korea Republic-Jordan. SK WIN @1.56. Sportsbet odds: 1.49
Game 3: United Arab Emirates-Uzbekistan. Uzbek WIN@ 2.30. Sportsbet odds: 2.20
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.3102. Sportsbet parlay @4.5892

Odds advantage: 15.71%
Units advantage: 72.1 units

Running advantage after 233 bets: +3,580.21 (+126.1)
All-time cumulative: +25,599.74
Running units after 230 bets (40W|190L): +10,254.31 (-931 units)

[buwaytress]

Jesus Berlin were murdered in that second half blitzkrieg by Bayern. I suppose my comfort is that had I picked any of the other underdogs last night, they all lost by a goal to the league favourites (Parma 2-1 to Juve, Lorient 0-1 to PSG and Granada 0-1 to Barca). But the discomfort is I picked the one that lost 0-4 haha.

Anyway, incredible breakaway goal from Salah keeps my long parlay alive, and booked us a solid 5/1 win last night. Thanks also to the Asians of U23 who made short work of the Arabs!

I've got a thing for bottom teams fighting for survival and we saw in the Coppa that SPAL can still bite back so can we look for an upset tonight in Serie A?

100 units on Sportsbet.io on SPAL to WIN vs Atalanta @14.91. Betcoin odds: 14.05
Bet ID: 5e25686b2d989e28abb84d56

Odds advantage: 6.12%
Units advantage: 86 units

Running advantage after 234 bets: +3,686.21 (+86)
All-time cumulative: +25,685.74
Running units after 232 bets (41W|191L): +10,585.33 (+331.02 units)

[buwaytress]

It gives me great pleasure to have won at least 3 bets this season by choosing the bottom-team to beat someone higher up in the table, so I now add SPAL to the great list of Watford (vs United) and Dijon (vs PSG). You guys are the best. Heh. Never discount a desperation to clamber for points against the arrogance of a superior team!

That said, I think I'm going to parlay two favourites today against a minor upset. City and Chelsea to add 3 points tonight, and Lazio to smack down sorry Napoli?

If I lose because of City, I won't mind a bit!

Game 1: Sheffield United vs Manchester City. City WIN @1.44. Sportsbet odds: 1.40
Game 2: Chelsea vs Arsenal. Chelsea WIN @1.78. Sportsbet odds: 1.76
Game 3: Napoli vs Lazio. Lazio WIN @2.73. Sportsbet odds: 2.63
100 unit parlay at Betcoin @6.9975. Sportsbet parlay: 6.4803

Odds advantage: 7.98%
Units advantage: 51.72 units

And if you like AFC Champs League, we've got the Tajik champs as underdogs to Uzbek runner's up... so value bet all around. Pair with a certain Aussie victory:
Game 1: Lokomotiv Tashkent-FK Istiklol. Istiklol WIN @7.08. Sportsbet: 6.80
Game 2: Melbourne Victory FC-Bali United FC. Melbourne WIN @1.22. Sportsbet 1.22
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.6376. Sportsbet parlay: 8.296

Odds advantage: 4.12%
Units advantage: 34.16 units

Running advantage after 236 bets: +3,772.09 (+85.88)
All-time cumulative: +25,771.62
Running units after 233 bets (42W|191L): +11,976.33 (+1,391 units)

[buwaytress]

Arsenal finally showed some teeth with 10 men. I think Chelsea had 11 shots on goal and a few off target -- to Arsenal's 0 attempts, when that crazy solo run by Martinelli equalised. And City of course got Aguero to thank. But Napoli won the game, think Lazio lost their shape as soon as Leiva got sent off, shame.

But AFC picks did as well as could be, so we add on to our winnings!

3 home favourites today, and West Ham, Norwich, Burnley all have the ability to take a win. They were magnificent at Leicester and will want to avenge the 2-0 loss to United, so I think Dyche and co should nick it.

100 units at Fairlay on Burnley to WIN vs Manchester United @8.471. Betcoin odds: 7.82

Odds advantage: 8.32%
Units advantage: 65.1 units

Running advantage after 237 bets: +3,837.19 (+65.1)
All-time cumulative: +25,836.72
Running units after 235 bets (43W|192L): +12,640.09 (+663.76 units)

[buwaytress]

Probably the first time I've done 4 winning days in a row (but we should note I put in 7 picks in those 4 days, and I normally put one a day only), but I'm not going to complain about my luck when I've had many >10 day losing streaks!

I'd predicted the only upset of the night in the big leagues, but it was more thanks to United being poor than Burnley being good -- but the complete switch of form I thought would happen is precisely taking place. United have been bad, and Ole is rather to me pushing them to be even more complacent when he praises them on losing games.

Anyway, I've got the second leg of the Liverpool parlay we took on the 19th tonight for a simple 4/1 we will wait to settle that tonight.

Anyway, Sportsbet gives a massive 7% boost to 5-legged parlays and then tops it up with 1% for every additional leg. As it turns out, there are a few great value bets in Copa del Rey tonight, with 3 top division teams playing away to Segunda and Segunda B. I know, even Barca scraped past but that's still expected right?

Same value bet as Watford away in FA Cup against Tranmere Rovers and we top it up with Liverpool!

Game 1: Ebro vs Leganes. Leganes WIN @1.85 Betcoin odds: 1.85
Game 2: Mirandez vs Celta Vigo. Celta WIN @1.85 Betcoin odds: 1.94
Game 3: Badajoz vs Eibar. Eibar WIN @2.00 Betcoin odds: 1.96
Game 4: Tranmere vs Watford. Watford WIN @1.70 Betcoin odds: 1.73
Game 5: Wolves vs Liverpool. Pool WIN @1.68. Betcoin odds: 1.69
100 units parlay at Sportsbet [+7% boost] @20.92. Betcoin parlay:19.51
Bet ID: 5e294dbc523e2c3224924ff3

Odds advantage: 7.23%
Units advantage: 141 units

Running advantage after 238 bets: +3,978.19 (+141)
All-time cumulative: +25,977.72
Running units after 236 bets (44W|192L): +13,387.19 (+747.1 units)

[buwaytress]

Terrible letdown from all the favourites. I knew Watford would be resting a lot of players but well done Tranmere ANYWAY. Here's to you going on to beat Man Utd. There's no better time to do it.

With the win at Wolves we push our earlier parlay's 2nd leg, but still turn a tiny profit, so we actually add to our balance after last night. Well done, meself.

Champions of Ireland vs falling giant of Russia, what do you think? It's only a friendly;)

100 units at Sportsbet on Dundalk to WIN vs CSKA Moscow @10.20. Betcoin odds: 9.61
Bet ID: 5e2abf0333d43d4df9164952

Odds advantage: 6.14%
Units advantage: 59 units

Running advantage after 239 bets: +4,037.19 (+59)
All-time cumulative: +26,036.72
Running units after 238 bets (45W|193L): +13,489.19 (+102 units)

[buwaytress]

Well the run had to end, didn't it? But that was a great January 2020, really! Didn't even watch the game but the Russians had in 2-0 well before half time. Irish league quality never really cuts it does it?

Anyway, FA Cup returns, so we go for a 4-leg parlay on the favourites. I know. I know. FA Cup magic and all that but these teams have mainly all rested!

Game 1: Hull City-Chelsea. Chelsea WIN @1.51. Sportsbet odds: 1.49
Game 2: Brentford FC-Leicester City. Foxes WIN @1.70. Sportsbet odd: 1.65
Game 3: Millwall FC-Sheffield United. Blades WIN @2.28. Sportsbet odds: 2.26
Game 4: Newcastle United-Oxford United. Toons WIN @1.57. Sportsbet odds: 1.58
100 units parlay at Betcoin @9.1888. Sportsbet parlay @8.7788

Odds advantage: 4.67%
Units advantage: 41 units

Edit: Adding an Aussie upset in the U23 (I think the bookies have the odds wrong) to another Russian friendly (Ufa) who should beat a poor Polish side.
Game 1:  Ufa vs Slask Wroclaw. Ufa WIN @1.70. Sportsbet odds: 1.71
Game 2: Australia vs Uzbekistan. Aus WIN @3.77. Sportsbet odds: 3.56
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.409. Sportsbet parlay @6.0876

Odds advantage: 5.28%
Units advantage: 32.14 units

Running advantage after 241 bets: +4,110.33 (+73.14)
All-time cumulative: +26,109.86
Running units after 239 bets (45W|194L): +13,389.19 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Damn Newcastle. The only guys who didn't win their game, at home too! I mean, I know they're crap but I thought they'd turn things around after making their first 5th round appearance in over 10 years. Probably makes them good value bets for the replay I suppose.

Oh and Ufa, you lost me money too. Should have gone for both upsets in the second parlay.

Simple parlay today. Liverpool should still edge this, I'm going big on today's game as our 1st teamsters aren't all featuring but we should still benefit from Fabinho, Matip, Gomez!

Game 1: Real Valladolid-Real Madrid. Madrid WIN @1.44. Sportsbet odds: 1.43
Game 2: Inter Milano-Cagliari. Inter WIN @1.32. Sportsbet odds: 1.30
Game 3: Napoli-Juventus. Juve WIN @2.08. Sportsbet odds: 2.04
Game 4: Shrewsbury Town-Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.37. Sportsbet odds: 1.35
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.4165. Sportsbet parlay: 5.1196

Odds advantage: 5.8%
Units advantage: 29.69 units

Running advantage after 242 bets: +4,140.02 (+29.69)
All-time cumulative: +26,139.55
Running units after 241 bets (45W|196L): +13,189.19 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

Should have just gone for Napoli and be done with it, in the end. Or gone against Barca. Liverpool draw hurt me, but at least most of my money was on the HT win, since it had slightly better odds. Kids in defence, Lovren rusty af, oh well.

U23 Conmebol and another Arsenal loss, why not?

Game 1: 23/Argentina-23/Ecuador. Argentina WIN @1.26. Sportsbet odds: 1.24
Game 2: Bournemouth-Arsenal. Bournemouth WIN @4.65. Sportsbet odds: 4.48
100 unit parlay at Betcoin @5.859. Sportsbet parlay: 5.5552

Odds advantage: 5.47%
Units advantage: 30.38 units

Running advantage after 243 bets: +4,170.40 (+30.38)
All-time cumulative: +26,169.93
Running units after 242 bets (45W|197L): +13,089.19 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Damn, thought I posted this but timed out. Sorry, match started it seems. Yes, well. Arsenal. Haha. Anyway.

Only one match worth watching tonight and it's a repeat of Leicester Villa. The Foxes should really have won it and now Vardy's injured they've got a tough lineup, but they better win this cause no way Villa will beat City in the finals (yes, I'm betting on United in that one but you know). Anyway, AFC CL qualifiers too: Kashima Antlers I will remember have lost some of their shine of yesteryear and the Aussie outfit have been playing above expectations in the last round. A pretty parlay, shall we?

Game 1: Aston Villa-Leicester City. Foxes WIN @1.71. Sportsbet odds: 1.68
Game 2: Kashima Antlers-Melbourne Victory. Melbourne WIN @6.30. Sportsbet odds: 5.90
100 units parlay at Betcoin @10.773. Sportsbet parlay: 9.912

Odds advantage: 8.69%
Units advantage: 86.1 units

Running advantage after 244 bets: +4,256.50 (+86.1)
All-time cumulative: +26,256.03
Running units after 243 bets (45W|198L): +12,989.19 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Not sure if I should say wow Villa or wow Foxes. But you know what? On the account I watched, with Vardy injured and Villa seemingly full of fire and Samatta looking like he's going to score, maybe it's best Villa go to the final after all... though City will still win it if they progress. United, can they conjure a miracle? That's for another night.

Tonight is a strange, strange night. Both EPL and EFL cup matches happening at the same time. So it's an easy parlay:

Game 1: West Ham vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.34. Sportsbet odds: 1.33
Game 2: Man City vs Man Utd. United WIN @8.90. Sportsbet odds: 8.70
100 units parlay at Betcoin @11.926. Sportsbet parlay: 11.571

Odds advantage: 3.1%
Units advantage: 35.5 units

Running advantage after 245 bets: +4,292.0 (+35.5)
All-time cumulative: +26,291.53
Running units after 244 bets (45W|199L): +12,889.19 (-100 units)

[Trofo]

Hey man, you are getting predictable, I knew your pairs even before I have seen the post 

For Liverpool and against City sure worked nicely this season.

Never thought I will miss Rashford so much. I wanted to play United not to lose or both to score but I am afraid that without Rashford there simply isn't anyone direct enough to seriously put pressure on City. It is almost like draw without goals is the best United can hope for.

[buwaytress]

Hey man, you are getting predictable, I knew your pairs even before I have seen the post 

For Liverpool and against City sure worked nicely this season.

Never thought I will miss Rashford so much. I wanted to play United not to lose or both to score but I am afraid that without Rashford there simply isn't anyone direct enough to seriously put pressure on City. It is almost like draw without goals is the best United can hope for.

Sorry buddy, I know I'm getting predictable, even my kid knew when he came home from school I bet on United and Liverpool but you know, sometimes, the simpler the better!

I'm quite happy right now. HT and both games are 1-0 so I already booked a parlay in. Now I just need United to hold on. Not watching that match so no idea how that happened but hey, if de Gea is on his game today for another 50 minutes. Would love for them to make it 2-0 in the next one though!

And yeah, I actually like Rashford -- even if he plays for the enemy. They really didn't need to risk him and now he's off injured for so long.

Enjoy the game bud!

[Trofo]

Congrats on your ticket. I lost mine, in the end I opted for both to score in Manchester derby and handicap on Liverpool. Didn't watch the whole game but I saw one Aguero goal in the last minutes which was rightly disallowed due to the offside. I had my hopes up for few seconds but luck was on your side tonight.

[buwaytress]

Congrats on your ticket. I lost mine, in the end I opted for both to score in Manchester derby and handicap on Liverpool. Didn't watch the whole game but I saw one Aguero goal in the last minutes which was rightly disallowed due to the offside. I had my hopes up for few seconds but luck was on your side tonight.

Thank you;) You know, I often have a slight regret when betting so high odds, but I'm glad I go ahead anyway on them this season. It does help that I'm betting just under $5 per game right now, so even if I lose I don't feel the sting!

Anyway, simple parlay on friendly, U23 and Coupe - with the Lyon win tricky.

Game 1: Nice vs Lyon. Lyon WIN @2.29. Sportsbet odds: 2.26
Game 2: Marbella vs Sparta Prague. Prague WIN @1.69. Sportsbet odds: 1.68
Game 3: Venezuela vs Argentina (U23). Argentina WIN @1.61. Sportsbet odds: 1.60
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.23. Sportsbet parlay: 6.0748

Odds advantage: 2.55%
Units advantage: 15.52 units

Running advantage after 246 bets: +4,307.52 (+15.52)
All-time cumulative: +26,307.05
Running units after 245 bets (46W|199L): +13,981.79 (+1,092.6 units)

[buwaytress]

Died on the very first leg, so I just didn't even check the rest, broken hearts on Friday morning? Nah! Just ready to go some more before a big game tomorrow!

I've been losing a couple of bets on Hertha Berlin when they got their new coach (still a marvelous guy to me for sure) so this time I pick their opponents who've won me a couple at least. The odds aren't too bad, and it's because they just got a shellacking from Bayern haha. Parlay that with an exotic competition with Copenhagen to beat Astana.

Game 1: Hertha BSC-FC Schalke 04. Schalke WIN @2.64. Sportsbet odds: 2.60
Game 2: FC Copenhagen-FC Astana. Copenhagen WIN @1.78. Sportsbet odds: 1.76
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.6992. Sportsbet parlay: 4.576

Odds advantage: 2.69%
Units advantage: 12.32 units

Running advantage after 247 bets: +4,319.84 (+12.32)
All-time cumulative: +26,319.37
Running units after 246 bets (46W|200L): +13,881.79 (-100 units)