Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +97043 units

[buwaytress]

I was actually slightly worried I'd lose to Hertha's new coach sydrome that would finally kick in but my pick did dominate, and the game sadly ended in a scoreless draw.

Now today a lot of exciting matches but the odds are a bit tight everywhere. So I'll do a bit of a silly parlay on 2 favourites elsewhere, Wolves to beat United at Old Trafford AND Liverpool to pad it up;)

Game 1: Manchester United-Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves WIN @3.52.   Sportsbet odds: 3.32
Game 2: SK Slavia Prague-Aarhus. Prague WIN @1.84. Sportsbet odds: 1.84
Game 3: USA-Costa Rica. US WIN @1.59. Sportsbet odds: 1.58
Game 4: Liverpool FC-Southampton FC. Liverpool WIN @1.30. Sportsbet odds: 1.28
100 units parlay at Betcoin @13.3875. Sportsbet parlay: 12.3544

Odds advantage: 8.36%
Units advantage: 103.31 units

And, I want to put in a long parlay on Watford's next 2 games, why not? Samatta to score!
Game 1: Liverpool FC-Southampton FC. Liverpool WIN @1.31. Sportsbet odds: 1.28
Game 2: Watford FC-Everton FC. Watford WIN @2.88. Sportsbet odds: 2.79
Game 3: Brighton & Hove Albion-Watford. Watford WIN @3.58. Sportsbet odds: 3.46
100 units parlay at Betcoin @13.5066. Sportsbet parlay: 12.3563

Odds advantage: 9.31%
Units advantage: 115.03 units

Total units advantage: 218.34

Running advantage after 249 bets: +4,538.18 (+218.34)
All-time cumulative: +26,537.71
Running units after 247 bets (46W|200L): +13,781.79 (-100 units)

[1714898083]

1714898083

[1714898083]

1714898083

[buwaytress]

Damn Watford. Damn Wolves. But hey, we got what I probably deserved, backing the underdogs... right? I'm not learning my lesson today yet, but I will pick Arsenal (who gets Aubameyeng back today) to pick off Burnley away, and for Mourinho to get one over his old rival!

Easy pick, maybe I'm predictable. 10 minutes to go! Last min bets!

Game 1: Burnley vs Arsenal. Arsenal WIN @1.96 Betcoin odds: 1.94
Game 2: Tottenham Hotspur vs Man City. Spurs WIN @5.92 Betcoin odds: 5.61
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @11.60. Betcoin parlay: 10.88
Bet ID: 5e36c4a0af146948ed77b44d

Odds advantage: 6.62%
Units advantage: 72 units

Running advantage after 250 bets: +4,610.18 (+72)
All-time cumulative: +26,609.71
Running units after 249 bets (46W|203L): +13,581.79 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

Fairplay to Burnley. They could have won it actually, and Arsenal were actually the luckier side to get away with a point. Sean Dyche knows how to get his men down to hunker up and Arteta needs to learn that. Shame we picked Spurs though, a wasted win, should have done it up with Juve and Barca instead.

Anyway. Hamburg been on a bad run of form lately with four games without a win. They'll be itching to end Bochum's opposite run of form. So worth a risky parlay with Napoli losing again!

Game 1: Bochum-Hamburger SV. Hamburg WIN @1.77. Sportsbet odds: 1.76
Game 2: Sampdoria-SSC Napoli. Sampdoria WIN @4.54. Sportsbet odds: 4.38
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.0358. Sportsbet parlay: 7.7088

Odds advantage: 4.24%
Units advantage: 32.7 units

Running advantage after 251 bets: +4,642.88 (+32.7)
All-time cumulative: +26,642.41
Running units after 250 bets (46W|204L): +13,481.79 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Can't always get it right. Napoli didn't start Mertens and Koulibaly and they still get off with 2 goals. Maybe that ship's righting itself, after all.

Lots of cup games tonight. I actually ALREADY have a parlay with a Shrewsbury leg above 2/1 for Liverpool, so I won't touch that tonight.

Instead, we pick a few difficult bookie favourites across Europe:

Game 1: Werder Bremen-Borussia Dortmund. BVB WIN @1.49. Sportsbet odds: 1.48
Game 2: Derby County-Northampton Town. Derby WIN @1.46. Sportsbet odds: 1.44
Game 3: Oxford United-Newcastle United. Toons WIN @2.02. Sportsbet odds: 1.98
Game 4: Granada CF-CF Valencia. Valencia WIN @2.32. Sportsbet odds: 2.27
100 units parlay at Betcoin @10.1947. Sportsbet parlay: 9.5788

Odds advantage: 6.43%
Units advantage: 61.59 units

Running advantage after 252 bets: +4,704.47 (+61.59)
All-time cumulative: +26,704.00
Running units after 251 bets (46W|205L): +13,381.79 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

BVB out of the DFB Pokal, wow. And Valencia out of Copa del Rey? WOW. But well done Bremen and Granada. I'm just sorry I didn't pick you guys.

But I will pick on Saints tonight to beat Spurs. Only cause Ings deserves to score, and Spurs, well, you did well against City but you should focus on the league!;)

Game 1: Lazio vs Verona. Lazio WIN HT @1.96. Betcoin odds: 1.97
Game 2: Spurs vs Southampton. Saints WIN @4.85. Betcoin odds: 4.67
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @9.51. Betcoin odds: 9.29
Bet ID: 5e3a76f8c9070b357a5a8051

Odds advantage: 3.37%
Units advantage: 31 units

Running advantage after 253 bets: +4,735.47 (+31)
All-time cumulative: +26,735.00
Running units after 252 bets (46W|206L): +13,281.79 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

I'm getting really bad at this. Good thing Trofo isn't picking on my picks no more;) Wondering if Lazio also hits a rut and doesn't get up. They've really been good this season.

Am I boring if I go for La Liga favourites tonight plus the U23 Argentina? They've been good to me many times, even though a cup upset is likely...

Game 1: Real Madrid-Real Sociedad. Madrid WIN @1.43. Sportsbet odds: 1.41
Game 2: Athletic Bilbao-FC Barcelona. Barca WIN @1.89. Sportsbet odds: 1.88
Game 3: Argentina-Colombia. Argentina WIN @1.93. Sportsbet odds: 1.89
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.2162. Sportsbet parlay: 5.01

Odds advantage: 3.37%
Units advantage: 20.62 units

Running advantage after 254 bets: +4,756.09 (+20.62)
All-time cumulative: +26,755.62
Running units after 253 bets (46W|207L): +13,181.79 (-100 units)

[Trofo]

I'm getting really bad at this. Good thing Trofo isn't picking on my picks no more;)

I am reading your tips daily but I rarely put money on them. When you play against the favorites I am usually playing both to score or double chance for a bit more realistic outcome, granted at way smaller odds. I usually play my ticket before checking your tips and then sometimes I decide to add another one.

Now when we are talking about upsets tonight, if somebody pointed a gun at my hand and made me predict Barca game I would go for 1:0 win for Bilbao. There is some bad blood in Barca dressing room and San Mames isn't a stadium where anybody can win easily. Wanted to play Bilbao not to lose but odds are @2,0 which is a bit too low for that kind of bet.

My ticket for today is (beer money only):
Real both to score @1,8
Barca game under 2,5 @ 1,75
Sivaspor both to score @1,7
Gasquet to win when he was 1:0 down in sets @3.5 which has already passed nicely

good luck with yours.

[buwaytress]

@Trofo I'm glad you didn't bet on my picks... I really am happy I'm doing well but I know it's luck and I bet more often with heart than with head, even though I try to follow form!

The Copa del Rey games were tough, and Real actually played like angels (I watched) and still lost.

Anyway, back to English Prem League, I really like Palace's odds today. They've been a really strong team this season and I think the results just haven't gone their way. I feel like they miss Wan Bissaka and I fear they may also lose Zaha next season but surely 6/1 against Everton is good value?

100 units on Crystal Palace to WIN at Everton @6.11. Betcoin odds: 5.80

Odds advantage: 5.34%
Units advantage: 31 units

Then, a long parlay today on relegation strugglers Watford, with next week's Liverpool game:
Game 1: Brighton & Hove Albion-Watford. Watford WIN @3.67. Sportsbet odds: 3.42
Game 2: Norwich City-Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.35. Sportsbet odds: 1.35
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.9545. Sportsbet parlay: 4.617

Odds advantage: 7.31%
Units advantage: 33.75 units

Cumulative units: 64.75

Running advantage after 256 bets: +4,820.84 (+64.75)
All-time cumulative: +26,820.37
Running units after 254 bets (46W|208L): +13,081.79 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Forum's really iffy now and I already lost a couple of drafts (also something wrong with my device it won't reload or restore my past pages on back. ANYWAY, lost two of yesterday's games, shame.

And I have a bet today but just heard the game's been postponed so we'll see if the bet is returned or if it carries forward. I'm still hoping it continues but with Storm winds, looks unlikely.

100 units on West Ham to WIN vs Manchester City @25.47. Betcoin odds: 24.64.

Odds advantage: 3.37%
Units advantage: 86 units

Running advantage after 257 bets: +4,906.84 (+86)
All-time cumulative: +26,906.37
Running units after 256 bets (46W|210L): +12,881.79 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

So yesterday's bet was returned. So I'll reset the numbers to the ones before yesterday. Shame as I'm not sure we'll find matching odds so soon, but anyway. MLS and I don't think we'll get an upset, so I'll pair it against another Jong Ajax loss (they've been overconfident lately) and with bad winds, who knows?

Game 1: Jong FC Utrecht-Jong Ajax Amsterdam. Jong Utrecht WIN @5.40. Sportsbet odds: 5.20
Game 2: Los Angeles Galaxy-New England Revolution. LA Galaxy WIN @1.76. Sportsbet odds: 1.77
100 units parlay at Betcoin @9.504. Sportsbet parlay: 9.204

Odds advantage: 3.26%
Units advantage: 30 units

Running advantage after 257 bets: +4,850.84 (+30)
All-time cumulative: +26,850.37
Running units after 256 bets (46W|210L): +12,881.79 (+-0 units)

[buwaytress]

I thought they were overconfident of late and they showed it again last night. They're clearly the best side on paper in the Dutch 2nd-tier, and probably keep wanting to prove it, though no one could have predicted such a meltdown against the underdogs, 7-2 loss! Across the pond, LA got their win by half-time, so we book a nice parlay!

AFC Champs League begins today and I actually recall betting on Melbourne Victory as the underdogs to progress but they haven't won in 5 games (4L1D) in the A League, while Chiangrai are well rested after winning the Thai league... so here is my pick for today:

100 units at Fairlay on Chiangrai Utd to WIN vs Melbourne Victory @6.8. Betcoin odds: 6.58

Odds advantage: 4.12%
Units advantage: 22 units

Running advantage after 258 bets: +4,872.84 (+22)
All-time cumulative: +26,872.37
Running units after 257 bets (47W|210L): +13,732.19 (+850.4 units)

[buwaytress]

Tough way to lose a game, give away a penalty, red card, while fighting away from home. Maybe next time they get worse odds, I'll pick them again, too bad Thais, you almost did it.

Anyway, cup games tonight. I've been putting Granada off since they lost their fantastic early season form but shall we back them to knock out Bilbao tonight, and parlay with another Lukaku-inspired win?

Game 1: Inter Milan vs Napoli. Inter WIN @2.01. Sportsbet odds: 1.98
Game 2: Athletic Bilbao-Granada. Granada WIN @5.66. Sportsbet odds: 5.30
100 units parlay at Betcoin @11.3766. Sportsbet parlay: 10.494

Odds advantage: 8.41%
Units advantage: 88.26 units

Running advantage after 258 bets: +4,961.1 (+88.26)
All-time cumulative: +26,960.63
Running units after 257 bets (47W|210L): +13,732.19 (+850.4 units)

[buwaytress]

I got that really switched around well, didn't I? Napoli swung for the 1-0, as did Athletic Bilbao (but Granada wasn't a letdown to be fair, they just shat on their defence and tried to score). Funny the Copa del Rey was shown on my TV and not Italia though. Pretty sure Inter Napoli was the bigger game.

Let's do another risky cup parlay:
Game 1: SC Heerenveen-Feyenoord Rotterdam. Feyenoord WIN @2.19. Sportsbet odds: 2.16
Game 2: AC Milan-Juventus Turin. Juve WIN @2.21. Sportsbet odds: 2.18
Game 3: Royal Antwerp FC-KRC Genk Antwerp WIN @1.95. Sportsbet odds: 1.92
100 units parlay at Betcoin @9.4378. Sportsbet parlay: 9.0408

Odds advantage: 4.39%
Units advantage: 39.7 units

Running advantage after 260 bets: +5,000.8 (+39.7)
All-time cumulative: +27,000.33
Running units after 259 bets (47W|212L): +13,532.19 (-200 units) (Correction from yesterday forgot to remove 100 units!)

[buwaytress]

Bleeding draws. And these were rather strong favourites too, but cup games over 2 legs always have this danger, I suppose, and we paid for it good last night.

Anyway, normal league games resume and I'm happy to throw a few dollars at Valencia upsetting a rag-tag Atletico.

Game 1: Monaco-Montpellier Hsc. Monaco WIN @1.84. Sportsbet odds: 1.80
Game 2: KAS Eupen-KAA Gent. Gent WIN @1.55. Sportsbet odds: 1.56
Game 3: Valencia-Atletico Madrid. Valencia WIN @3.51. Sportsbet odds: 3.40
100 unit parlay at Betcoin @10.0105. Sportsbet parlay: 9.5472

Odds advantage: 4.85%
Units advantage: 46.33 units

Running advantage after 261 bets: +5,047.16 (+46.33)
All-time cumulative: +27,046.66
Running units after 260 bets (47W|213L): +13,432.19 (-100 units)

[Trofo]

Really like your Valencia pick for today. Atletico is rather bad this season and I don't know how Valencia isn't a favourite today. I picked Valencia win for small stake and in sportsbet multibet promo. For my high stake ticket I choose more safe Valencia not to lose @1,75 which has immense value in my opinion.

[buwaytress]

Yeah, and now that Valencia got KO'd out of the Copa by Granada, they should have been all in on this one, plus that they need a Europa spot. But well, it turned out to be even, both full of attacking intent, though Valencia saw much more of the ball too bad!

Rage betting tonight on 1st half wins from Pool, Saints and Barca:

Game 1: Southampton WIN HT vs Burnley @2.42. Betcoin odds: 2.30
Game 2: Barca WIN HT vs Getafe @1.89. Betcoin odds: 1.91
Game 3: Liverpool WIN HT vs Norwich @1.72. Betcoin odds: 1.73
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @7.87. Betcoin: 7.6
Bet ID: 5e47a735c9070bcd535b87ca

Odds advantage: 7.55%
Units advantage: 27 units

Running advantage after 262 bets: +5,074.16 (+27)
All-time cumulative: +27,073.66
Running units after 261 bets (47W|214L): +13,332.19 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Well it was always going to be tough after all, only Barca gave us a HT win and even Ings couldn't save the Saints, poor guy. Out today and on rather inconvenient mobile and data so I'm not able to study the underdogs well (yeah, cause I do, you know). Arsenal have been letting down people all season and Auba hasn't had much luck with goals since the red card, so a Toon upset on the cards? I say yes.

100 units on Newcastle to WIN vs Arsenal @7.931. Betcoin odds: 7.34

Odds advantage: 8.05%
Units advantage: 59.1 units

Running advantage after 263 bets: +5,133.26 (+59.1)
All-time cumulative: +27,132.76
Running units after 262 bets (47W|215L): +13,232.19 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

I couldn't have been more wrong about Auba, he really fired the Gooners up, BUT 4-0 was probably a bit of a flattering result for them. Still, they'll love this, the fans. And I think, they deserve it. Arteta, trying to not smile like Wenger in presscon post game;)

Chelsea will probably win the game tonight actually, but United have been stung so often now it's probably going to work in their favour -- plus, they do have a way of turning up this season against fancier opponents. Isn't it strange that Chelski are considered fancier to United this season?

Game 1: Chelsea FC-Manchester United. United WIN @4.22. Sportsbet odds: 4.01
Game 2: FC Zenit ST Petersburg-Kairat Almaty. Zenit WIN @1.48. Sportsbet odds: 1.46
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.2456. Sportsbet parlay: 5.8546

Odds advantage: 6.68%
Units advantage: 39.1 units

Running advantage after 264 bets: +5,172.36 (+39.1)
All-time cumulative: +27,171.86
Running units after 263 bets (47W|216L): +13,132.19 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

That was another United beauty last night. Mind you, they didn't exactly convince me but scoring the goal is important and I think Chelski realise now they have a really crap keeper...

Tonight the blessed Champions League returns and I will have a few important parlays settle or progress with Liverpool winning, so very excited.

But since we like taking more bets, let's do this:

Game 1: Atletico vs Liverpool. Pool WIN @ 2.37. Betcoin odds: 2.41
Game 2: Borussia Dortmund vs PSG. PSG WIN HT @2.93. Betcoin odds: 2.75
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @6.94. Betcoin parlay: 6.6275
Bet ID: 5e4bfed7c9070b49065be25a

Odds advantage: 4.72%
Units advantage: 31.25 units

Running advantage after 265 bets: +5,203.61 (+31.25)
All-time cumulative: +27,203.11
Running units after 264 bets (48W|216L): +13,656.75 (524.56 units)

[buwaytress]

That totally hurt. But we'll be back and Klopp was right, welcome to Anfield, Atleti. Don't remember the last time I saw so many players go down, they took Mane out with a yellow, difficult! We surely can't have the same ref in the return leg.

Right then. I'll ignore CL tonight and go for a West Ham upset in the postponed EPL game. Adding stake odds here just to show odds from a different provider (betradar but with reduced juice I'm told?).

100 units on West Ham to WIN vs Manchester City @19.074. Stake odds: 17.0 Betcoin odds: 17.31

Odds advantage: 10.19%
Units advantage: 176.4 units

Running advantage after 266 bets: +5,380.01 (+176.4)
All-time cumulative: +27,379.11
Running units after 265 bets (48W|217L): +13,556.75 (-100 units)