Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod]

[JSRAW]

Well... I have my own reasons and normally I am not a fan of spin bowling. What I hate about Ashwin is the fact that Indian management prepares dust-bowls, so that he could take wickets. This luxury is not given to any of the other players in the XI. All the Indian tracks are doctored to suit the spin of Ravichandran Ashwin, as in normal surfaces he becomes toothless.

You are entitled to your opinion but Test Cricket is not about only Seam bowling. Spin and Seam both are Art in cricketing sense. @SaShiRaJaVu already gave one explanation in his response.

Please allow me to give another perspective. IMHO We all are hypocrites and have twisted standards in this regard. When subcontinent bowlers and batsmen perform in-home condition we criticize or judge them according to their Away tours performance and on another hand  Muralitharan, Warne, Ricky Pointing, Brett lee all failed in India but they are Legend in World cricket, don't you think its hypocritical behavior Btw it also applies to me because I have written against Ashwin multiple times here.

That said, even before the start of the match I had argued for the inclusion of one more spinner in the playing XI. Jadeja as a part-time bowler failed to take a lot of wickets and conceded more than 100 runs. If Kuldeep Yadav was there to support Ashwin, then South Africa might have got out for less than 300, and India would have managed to enforce the follow on.

With all due respect. Jadeja is not a part time bowler in any sense when it comes to 5-day cricket. Part timers never bowl 37 overs in one day and FYI today he became the Fastest Left Handed bowlers to take 200 Wickets. how many part-timers comes into our mind with this number? I agree he was rusty today and at some point, I also felt that India is one spinner short, but sometimes you should give credit to opposition batsmen too.

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[SaShiRaJaVu]

Jadeja as a part-time bowler failed to take a lot of wickets and conceded more than 100 runs.

If Jadeja is a part time bowler who is the fastest to reach 200 wickets in the history of test cricket, then it is not a small feat by any means as we have seen many legendary left arm bowlers throughout history  .
Jadeja and Ashwin are the greatest spinners India have but look at their batting records too, Jadeja have three triple centuries in domestic matches and one century in his International career and Ashwin have four centuries.
Final two days and if the Indian fielders can take their catches then India can win the test match, hopefully we will not see any weather delays and that is the last thing we need in this situation.

[vella85]

Good fight back by SA on day 3 as they looked in bad shape at 63/4 but thanks to an amazing innings by Elgar that helped them get out of trouble and also Quinton de Kock helped push SA passed the follow on. Depending on how long the tail can stick around for, this match might now end up as a draw unless India pile on 250+ runs on day 4 once they get to bat.
 

[n0ne]

Good fight back by SA on day 3 as they looked in bad shape at 63/4 but thanks to an amazing innings by Elgar that helped them get out of trouble and also Quinton de Kock helped push SA passed the follow on. Depending on how long the tail can stick around for, this match might now end up as a draw unless India pile on 250+ runs on day 4 once they get to bat.
 

There is more chance for draw, if India scores 250+ runs also it will be chased by South Africa if they continue the second innings with this form. In a single day 250 will be easily chased, look at the scoring rate, even after consecutive wicket fall they managed to keep the run rate. Today South Africa will somehow reaches 425-450 runs.

[Sithara007]

With all due respect. Jadeja is not a part time bowler in any sense when it comes to 5-day cricket. Part timers never bowl 37 overs in one day and FYI today he became the Fastest Left Handed bowlers to take 200 Wickets. how many part-timers comes into our mind with this number? I agree he was rusty today and at some point, I also felt that India is one spinner short, but sometimes you should give credit to opposition batsmen too.

Well.. I had always considered Jadeja as a batsman who can bowl a bit (well, quite a bit). Sometimes statistics can be misleading. For example, he bowled 37 overs yesterday. But I have seen matches in which he was used for just 4-5 overs per day. Anyway, in subcontinent matches, in which pacers are rarely used, it is not that uncommon to see spinners taking 10-15 wickets per match, and bowling 35-40 overs per day.

Now coming back to the match, I feel that this is going to end in a draw. The last wicket partnership put in 35 runs and more importantly batted out 8 overs. This may turn out to be crucial later. Some 175 overs remaining in this match as of now, but needs to see whether there is rain interruption or not. If there is no interruption, then there is a good chance of getting a result (and trust me, it can go either way).

[SaShiRaJaVu]

Well.. I had always considered Jadeja as a batsman who can bowl a bit (well, quite a bit). Sometimes statistics can be misleading. For example, he bowled 37 overs yesterday. But I have seen matches in which he was used for just 4-5 overs per day. Anyway, in subcontinent matches, in which pacers are rarely used, it is not that uncommon to see spinners taking 10-15 wickets per match, and bowling 35-40 overs per day.

First and foremost no part time bowlers are able to bowl 20 plus overs in a day, Ravindra Jadeja has played 43 Test match and his bowling average is 23.89 which is fantastic and his strike rate is 59.6, hope you understand what a strike rate means, with every 59.6 balls he picks a wickets and that is also not a bad thing either, not sure what you are trying to prove here. If you think he is in the team because of his batting skills that is mistaken as India has much better batsman, he is in the team as a spinner who can bat when needed and a fantastic fielder.

[onrise]

The match might end in a draw if SA is able to play the entire day tomorrow as today being 4th day and India have lead of around 120 and would any today and say will have a lead by 350- 400 max if they bat fast . So only way to win is to get all out SA team tomorrow .

[Sithara007]

The match might end in a draw if SA is able to play the entire day tomorrow as today being 4th day and India have lead of around 120 and would any today and say will have a lead by 350- 400 max if they bat fast . So only way to win is to get all out SA team tomorrow .

I have a feeling that India is not trying to win this match. The current run rate is just 2.3 runs per over and I am not sure what they are trying to achieve here. Ideally they could have tried to score at 4-5 runs per over and given the bowlers entire day tomorrow to bowl the South African side out. Mayank Agarwal got out after scoring 7 runs from 31 balls, and Pujara is out there with just 4 runs from 37 balls. They have a lead of 100+ runs, so I thought that it may be good idea to add another 200 runs in 40-50 overs and then declare the innings.

And surprisingly while Maharaj (who seems to be their best bowler) has conceded 31 runs from his 7 overs (4.4 runs per over), the other three bowlers (Philander/Rabada/Piedt) have conceded just 10 runs from their 12 overs (0.8 runs per over). The Indian batsmen seems to be attacking Maharaj, while taking a defensive stance against the other bowlers.

[JSRAW]

^^That's why Kuldeep brings the Gloves and drinks for Pujara. Hopefully, he gets the Msz   dude has a habit of being slow and this pitch and condition don't suit this mindset. Rohit is clear from the opposite end though.  

Edit :

Lol moment for Rohit Sharma against the Maharaj. now it seems to me Pujara swinging bat too.

[Haunebu]

The match might end in a draw if SA is able to play the entire day tomorrow as today being 4th day and India have lead of around 120 and would any today and say will have a lead by 350- 400 max if they bat fast . So only way to win is to get all out SA team tomorrow .

South Africa might try to drag the game for a draw since their chances of winning are slim to none at the moment. It all comes down to how good the Indian bowlers are during the final sessions of the game without any rain interference.

I have a feeling that India is not trying to win this match. The current run rate is just 2.3 runs per over and I am not sure what they are trying to achieve here. Ideally they could have tried to score at 4-5 runs per over and given the bowlers entire day tomorrow to bowl the South African side out. Mayank Agarwal got out after scoring 7 runs from 31 balls, and Pujara is out there with just 4 runs from 37 balls. They have a lead of 100+ runs, so I thought that it may be good idea to add another 200 runs in 40-50 overs and then declare the innings.

I think India are aiming at posting a lead of around 250 and declaring which could do the job as long as Ashwin and Jadeja continue their magic out on the pitch and as long as the fielders hold on to the catches.

[Sithara007]

I think India are aiming at posting a lead of around 250 and declaring which could do the job as long as Ashwin and Jadeja continue their magic out on the pitch and as long as the fielders hold on to the catches.

No no no.... 250 would be very much achievable for South Africa, with Elgar, de Kock and du Plessis in the squad. I would be looking at a lead of 350, which would give India a 90% chance of win (provided that it doesn't rain). Anyway the lead has crossed 250 already and India is leading by 283 right now. Some 25-30 overs remains for today. If India could get another 80 runs within the next 15 overs, then it would give them 10-15 overs today, and another 90 overs tomorrow. I still don't know why they are not going all out at the South African bowlers, as they have 8 wickets in hand. Pujara scored runs quickly during the 2nd session, but not before wasting a lot of balls earlier.

[erikalui]

Gladly they did not manage to reach 500 runs else the first innings was a lose cause then. Underestimated the SA players a lot but they proved to be good even on Indian surfaces. Agarwal missed the chance and already 3 wickets gone with 310 lead. I don't think they will even manage to reach 350 as only one day is left and 2-3 hours of play today. They will need to put up atleast 200 more runs (510) before declaring but likely this will end as a draw match. The first day's missed time has lead to this.

[Haunebu]

No no no.... 250 would be very much achievable for South Africa, with Elgar, de Kock and du Plessis in the squad. I would be looking at a lead of 350, which would give India a 90% chance of win (provided that it doesn't rain). Anyway the lead has crossed 250 already and India is leading by 283 right now. Some 25-30 overs remains for today. If India could get another 80 runs within the next 15 overs, then it would give them 10-15 overs today, and another 90 overs tomorrow. I still don't know why they are not going all out at the South African bowlers, as they have 8 wickets in hand. Pujara scored runs quickly during the 2nd session, but not before wasting a lot of balls earlier.

You are right. I thought that India would declare quickly, but guess I was wrong. Looks like they might declare at 400 now and this would convert into an ODI match tomorrow where South Africa would need to chase down such a mammoth total in a single day.

As long as it doesn't rain, India will win this one and all credit goes to Sharma and Ashwin for demonstrating why experience matters in this young Indian side. Very happy with the performance of both teams though.

[akhjob]

So the target for South Africa is 395 and 13 overs left for today's play. Looks like we'll have a result afterall. Either India or SA winning. If its the later, then everyone is going to blame Kohli 

[eaLiTy]

You are right. I thought that India would declare quickly, but guess I was wrong. Looks like they might declare at 400 now and this would convert into an ODI match tomorrow where South Africa would need to chase down such a mammoth total in a single day.

India is attacking with their spin duo and South Africa will try to survive the entire day rather than going for a win. It is clear that South Africa cannot win the match but they will try their best to prolong the match and get a draw, they already lost Elgar to Jadeja and if India is able to pick wickets at regular intervals we will have a result.

As long as it doesn't rain, India will win this one and all credit goes to Sharma and Ashwin for demonstrating why experience matters in this young Indian side. Very happy with the performance of both teams though.

If India is able to pick wickets and put pressure on the South African players then there is a chance to win and we should not need any rain interruption too if we are to see any result.

[JSRAW]

You are right. I thought that India would declare quickly, but guess I was wrong. Looks like they might declare at 400 now and this would convert into an ODI match tomorrow where South Africa would need to chase down such a mammoth total in a single day.

India is attacking with their spin duo and South Africa will try to survive the entire day rather than going for a win. It is clear that South Africa cannot win the match but they will try their best to prolong the match and get a draw, they already lost Elgar to Jadeja and if India is able to pick wickets at regular intervals we will have a result.

As long as it doesn't rain, India will win this one and all credit goes to Sharma and Ashwin for demonstrating why experience matters in this young Indian side. Very happy with the performance of both teams though.

If India is able to pick wickets and put pressure on the South African players then there is a chance to win and we should not need any rain interruption too if we are to see any result.

Virat needs to go with attacking field, unlike the first inning where he went into defensive mode, and Indians can't afford sloppy fielding this time if they want to win the game. Also, I hope Virat use Shami much better tomorrow. he is capable of picking at least one wicket with the old ball (reverse swing).

But in the end, it all depends on Ashwin-Jadeja's performance. otherwise Draw and 1% for SA's win.

Stump Mic, Just for lol  (Hindi-Urdu): https://vocaroo.com/i/s0B8Jp25MjOq

[7788bitcoin]

Virat needs to go with attacking field, unlike the first inning where he went into defensive mode, and Indians can't afford sloppy fielding this time if they want to win the game. Also, I hope Virat use Shami much better tomorrow. he is capable of picking at least one wicket with the old ball (reverse swing).

I saw many dropped chances and the ball landing in empty spaces in the first innings of South Africa and if India continue that performance in the fourth innings you cannot expect a result in this match, the pitch will be helping the Indian spinners and i expected the captain to attack from the start and now South Africa lost their first wicket and we need a huge innings from their captain to draw this test.

But in the end, it all depends on Ashwin-Jadeja's performance. otherwise Draw and 1% for SA's win.

For India to win Ashwin and Jadeja are the prime factors and i do not see South Africa winning this match but they can try their best to draw this one.

[Vishnu.Reang]

For India to win Ashwin and Jadeja are the prime factors and i do not see South Africa winning this match but they can try their best to draw this one.

Obviously.. it is the 5th day and I guess 80% to 90% of the overs will be bowled by the spinners. Even during the South African first innings, only 34 overs out of the total 131 overs were bowled by the pacers. The pitch is not offering any support for the pacers, and therefore there is no point in giving them too many overs. Also Bumrah is not there. He was one of those bowlers who has the capability to perform even on flat tracks.

[Sithara007]

There is 50/50 chance or a win by India or a draw. 90 overs remains tomorrow (if there is no rain), and India needs to get 9 wickets for a win. South Africa survived for 131 overs in their first innings, but doing the same on the 5th day may prove much more difficult. That said a lot will depend on whether any of the other bowlers are able to give support for Ashwin. South Africa has some very experienced batsmen and in the past they have managed to survive against very adverse conditions.

[erikalui]

SA will easily win this match. Tomorrow's whole day of play and they have Knock and du Plessis who could easily get them the required runs. They should have atleast played till the end of the day and declare tomorrow. Why to declare before reaching 450? With Kohli batting, 50 runs was so possible today. I feel India will most probably lose this match unless Ashwin manages to take the big wickets. Glad that atleast Elgar the danger man is out.