Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[be.open]

"Not the moment for diplomacy" - Zelensky is very clear on his belief that there is much more to be done and that there are still very good chances of a substantial break of the Ruzzian defences. Along with this he declared that he does not believe that "Trump will not support Ukraine", that is, if he can even become a candidate.

(source: interview for The Economist).

"We lost a lot of people. No happy end." - also Zelensky yesterday about the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

(source: interview for CNN).

[coolcoinz]

Another Russian tank turn to scrap by drones. Those guys must be having a heart attack every time they hear rotors buzzing nearby.

Three $500 FPV drones damaged a modernized T-90A valued around $4.5 million near Bakhmut.
Fighters from the 3rd Assault Brigade's "Wings" and "ASGARD" units shot this video to show you how it’s done.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21500

When it comes to talking about losses, it's a war, in reality both sides are losing. The interesting part is that a much bigger and stronger country is unable to win, pretty much like Soviets in Afghanistan, or Americans in Vietnam.

[paxmao]

Another Russian tank turn to scrap by drones. Those guys must be having a heart attack every time they hear rotors buzzing nearby.

Three $500 FPV drones damaged a modernized T-90A valued around $4.5 million near Bakhmut.
Fighters from the 3rd Assault Brigade's "Wings" and "ASGARD" units shot this video to show you how it’s done.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21500

When it comes to talking about losses, it's a war, in reality, both sides are losing. The interesting part is that a much bigger and stronger country is unable to win, pretty much like Soviets in Afghanistan, or Americans in Vietnam.

Actually, Ukraine has managed to hit recently one of those super-expensive electronic warfare vehicles. Those are as expensive as 50 tanks and burn perfectly well. These are a very expensive barbecue.

"Not the moment for diplomacy" - Zelensky is very clear on his belief that there is much more to be done and that there are still very good chances of a substantial break of the Ruzzian defences. Along with this he declared that he does not believe that "Trump will not support Ukraine", that is, if he can even become a candidate.

(source: interview for The Economist).

"We lost a lot of people. No happy end." - also Zelensky yesterday about the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

(source: interview for CNN).

Of course Ukraine has lost many people, and no matter how victorious they will be, it will be always sad. BTW,  Zelensky speaks of not wanting to think about a long war, but having to think about a long war because that is what is going to happen. Keep up your good humour, you may need it.

 

[BADecker]

^^^ Well, Ukraine has one up on Russia here. Ukraine won't be losing many more tanks, mostly because they are just about all gone already. The few that are left are being 'saved' for a time and place where they can attack without losing any more... whenever and wherever that might be.

[paxmao]

^^^ Well, Ukraine has one up on Russia here. Ukraine won't be losing many more tanks, mostly because they are just about all gone already. The few that are left are being 'saved' for a time and place where they can attack without losing any more... whenever and wherever that might be.

Please, provide any evidence of what you have said (my guess is you are just FOMOing as usual, no need to prove even to the lowest level) - try to make it credible, because according to Ruzzian sources, equipment has been destroyed even when it has not even been sent to Ukraine.

At the moment, there is a good chunk of armoured troops in Ukraine that have not been committed. The loses on the Ruzzian side are o gigantic proportions, particularly in the artillery duels. The drones and counter battery radars sent to Ukraine are doing a dam good job. You can check to the institute of war statistics, halve them just to make sure, and still it comes out that at this rate Ruzzia will simply not have any decent equipment if the war last another year.

[BADecker]

^^^ Well, Ukraine has one up on Russia here. Ukraine won't be losing many more tanks, mostly because they are just about all gone already. The few that are left are being 'saved' for a time and place where they can attack without losing any more... whenever and wherever that might be.

Please, provide any evidence of what you have said (my guess is you are just FOMOing as usual, no need to prove even to the lowest level) - try to make it credible, because according to Ruzzian sources, equipment has been destroyed even when it has not even been sent to Ukraine.

At the moment, there is a good chunk of armoured troops in Ukraine that have not been committed. The loses on the Ruzzian side are o gigantic proportions, particularly in the artillery duels. The drones and counter battery radars sent to Ukraine are doing a dam good job. You can check to the institute of war statistics, halve them just to make sure, and still it comes out that at this rate Ruzzia will simply not have any decent equipment if the war last another year.

I usually post other websites that say what I am explaining.  Simply check through my posts here >>> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=149737;sa=showPosts over the last couple of months, and you will find several websites and US officials who back this up.

The US government is the king of media propaganda exploitation, and they have taught Ukraine officials very well. It's like they think that winning a war is based primarily on how many people believe the war has been won.

The thing that you are missing is that both the dead and the winners are winners. The winners won the war. The dead have won peace, and such peace is coming for Ukraine.

[paxmao]

^^^ Well, Ukraine has one up on Russia here. Ukraine won't be losing many more tanks, mostly because they are just about all gone already. The few that are left are being 'saved' for a time and place where they can attack without losing any more... whenever and wherever that might be.

Please, provide any evidence of what you have said (my guess is you are just FOMOing as usual, no need to prove even to the lowest level) - try to make it credible, because according to Ruzzian sources, equipment has been destroyed even when it has not even been sent to Ukraine.

At the moment, there is a good chunk of armoured troops in Ukraine that have not been committed. The loses on the Ruzzian side are o gigantic proportions, particularly in the artillery duels. The drones and counter battery radars sent to Ukraine are doing a dam good job. You can check to the institute of war statistics, halve them just to make sure, and still it comes out that at this rate Ruzzia will simply not have any decent equipment if the war last another year.

I usually post other websites that say what I am explaining.  Simply check through my posts here >>> .... over the last couple of months, and you will find several websites and US officials who back this up.

The US government is the king of media propaganda exploitation, and they have taught Ukraine officials very well. It's like they think that winning a war is based primarily on how many people believe the war has been won.

The thing that you are missing is that both the dead and the winners are winners. The winners won the war. The dead have won peace, and such peace is coming for Ukraine.

Sorry for not following your click-baits. If you have specific evidence of your assertion above, simple link that one and quote it. I am not here to generate traffic, links or clicks to the sites you usually advertise link.

The training provided by the US to Ukraine has been average at best. The NATO officers base their weapons in well trained troops, good communications, good low rank officers and combined arms warfare and have not yet fought any war with drones to the scale being used.

Ukraine is doing a very good job at learning, adapting and doing quite well without any aviation, combined arms as such and in an scenario that has nothing to do with the California deserts.

[LTU_btc]

Last night Ukraine made serious attacks against Black Sea fleet in Crimea. And this time not some drones but Storm Shadow missiles were used. Result of it - several warships were completely destroyed or at least damaged. In other words, they followed famous direction where Moskva warship went.
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/42121
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-missiles-strike-russia-black-sea-fleet-crimea-sevastopol-moscow-says/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/13/ukrainian-missiles-strike-russias-black-sea-fleet-in-crimea
It looks that landing ship Minsk and Submarine Rostov on Don were destroyed. And it's first Russian submarine that was destroyed since WWII. There was Kursk submarine, but Russians managed to destroy it themselves.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1701973482731384925

[paxmao]

Last night Ukraine made serious attacks against Black Sea fleet in Crimea. And this time not some drones but Storm Shadow missiles were used. Result of it - several warships were completely destroyed or at least damaged. In other words, they followed famous direction where Moskva warship went.
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/42121
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-missiles-strike-russia-black-sea-fleet-crimea-sevastopol-moscow-says/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/13/ukrainian-missiles-strike-russias-black-sea-fleet-in-crimea
It looks that landing ship Minsk and Submarine Rostov on Don were destroyed. And it's first Russian submarine that was destroyed since WWII. There was Kursk submarine, but Russians managed to destroy it themselves.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1701973482731384925

Yep, to be precise the "Rostov on don" submarine and a landing ship. This video is pro-Ukranian, but has some public domain pictures showing extensive damage. My take, this is the consequence of Ruzzia attacks towards objectives along the danube river and the breaking of the grain deal (these two ships were not strategical for the war in my view, but they were very expensive, as the planes hit near Lithuania and as many installations that are mysteriously catching fire in Ruzzia everyday.

If you remember, at the beginning of the war, Ruzzia started hitting cities and civilian infrastructure. It seems that now Ruzzia is getting some of its own medicine back in terms of costs and high-value target destruction.


https://youtu.be/Blrj1ZNkmuY?t=203

Also, I have the feeling that the previous attack on a radar system by special troops has a lot to do with these successful attacks by Ukraine.

[TwitchySeal]

^^^ Well, Ukraine has one up on Russia here. Ukraine won't be losing many more tanks, mostly because they are just about all gone already. The few that are left are being 'saved' for a time and place where they can attack without losing any more... whenever and wherever that might be.

Please, provide any evidence of what you have said (my guess is you are just FOMOing as usual, no need to prove even to the lowest level) - try to make it credible, because according to Ruzzian sources, equipment has been destroyed even when it has not even been sent to Ukraine.

At the moment, there is a good chunk of armoured troops in Ukraine that have not been committed. The loses on the Ruzzian side are o gigantic proportions, particularly in the artillery duels. The drones and counter battery radars sent to Ukraine are doing a dam good job. You can check to the institute of war statistics, halve them just to make sure, and still it comes out that at this rate Ruzzia will simply not have any decent equipment if the war last another year.

I usually post other websites that say what I am explaining.  Simply check through my posts here >>> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=149737;sa=showPosts over the last couple of months, and you will find several websites and US officials who back this up.

The US government is the king of media propaganda exploitation, and they have taught Ukraine officials very well. It's like they think that winning a war is based primarily on how many people believe the war has been won.

The thing that you are missing is that both the dead and the winners are winners. The winners won the war. The dead have won peace, and such peace is coming for Ukraine.

Ok I'll provide the proof.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html

This report is from July:
Ukraine Has Caught Up With Russia’s Tank Numbers, Data Signal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-05/shift-in-balance-of-arms-in-ukraine-underscored-by-fresh-data


cliffs:

Russia started the war with about 3400 tanks in service.  Ukraine had 947.

RU destroyed or captured at least 649 UA tanks.
UA destroyed or captured at least 2,313 Russian tanks.  

RU brought many tanks out of storage, but they are pretty crappy tanks, many without upgrade with technology from 50-80 years ago.  Before the war they were able to produce a max 200 tanks a year.  Now it's less because of sanctions.

UA has received about 700 of the most advanced tanks from western allies with hundreds more promised.  They just finished training on American abrahms tanks so those should be in action soon.

Overall, UA clearly has more tanks than they started with, and their total in action is about the same as Russia, around 1200-1500.
cliffs of the cliffs:
BADecker is wrong as usual.

[BADecker]

^^^ That's old, outdated info. Russia has increased its military and tank output many times over. Much of the increase includes new technology. The sanctions have backfired, and are causing Russia to make all kinds of treaties with many nations around the world, all of which want to free themselves from US domination.

The only REAL thing that the US has that is strong is its propaganda machine. And, you fell for it, though I don't blame you. It takes a little REAL investigation to find out the truth.

[coolcoinz]

^^^ That's old, outdated info. Russia has increased its military and tank output many times over.

That's simply not true and you know it.

We all know how many kalibr missiles they had and how there were reports coming from Russia that Putin was mad that so many of them were already spent and that they were going below half of total supply.
The news came out after the first few months of the war. Later in 2022 it looked like this:



the cost of 1 kalibr missile is around $980,000.
The US estimated Russian missile production to be below 50 a month and that included all the ballistic missiles and such. They're making less than 15 kalibrs a month.
So, all the data suggests their missile supply is going down, not up.

Also, if their military output is going up, how are they planning to replace the firepower of their ships, mainly Saratov, Moskva, Rostov on Don and Minsk? This isn't something you can bring back in a year or two.

What about 300 jets and 300 helicopters lost by Russia? This again is something they can't easily replace.

Even Russian propaganda channels aren't bold enough to say that the country is now stronger than it was before the war and its military capability has increased

[BADecker]

^^^ That's old, outdated info. Russia has increased its military and tank output many times over.

That's simply not true and you know it.

We all know how many kalibr missiles they had and how there were reports coming from Russia that Putin was mad that so many of them were already spent and that they were going below half of total supply.
The news came out after the first few months of the war. Later in 2022 it looked like this:

https://assets.kyivindependent.com/content/images/2023/02/fiksjopwiaahr7k-1673643417g0jtu.png

the cost of 1 kalibr missile is around $980,000.
The US estimated Russian missile production to be below 50 a month and that included all the ballistic missiles and such. They're making less than 15 kalibrs a month.
So, all the data suggests their missile supply is going down, not up.

Also, if their military output is going up, how are they planning to replace the firepower of their ships, mainly Saratov, Moskva, Rostov on Don and Minsk? This isn't something you can bring back in a year or two.

What about 300 jets and 300 helicopters lost by Russia? This again is something they can't easily replace.

Even Russian propaganda channels aren't bold enough to say that the country is now stronger than it was before the war and its military capability has increased

Anybody can make up charts and graphs. It's inherent in Microsoft Excel to be able to do this.

Anybody can focus on a few losses or gains anywhere in any war.

If you really want to know what's going on, go through my posts - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=149737;sa=showPosts - and listen to the American military people I have quoted and shown videos for. This includes in some places, US government people. Then, search out the same from all over the Internet.

Basically what is happening in this war is, the Ukraine is instantly lost if the US and Nato stop sending them help. And the US and Nato are depleting their own weapons and militaries while Russia is manufacturing more. In addition, Russia is making agreements with other countries who don't really like the US all that much = really dislike the US.

Wake up and look at what is going on. The people in the US don't want another Viet Nam. If Biden doesn't get us out of Ukraine, he won't be reelected, and Trump will get us out of Ukraine.

[paxmao]

^^^ That's old, outdated info. Russia has increased its military and tank output many times over.

That's simply not true and you know it.

We all know how many kalibr missiles they had and how there were reports coming from Russia that Putin was mad that so many of them were already spent and that they were going below half of total supply.
The news came out after the first few months of the war. Later in 2022 it looked like this:

https://assets.kyivindependent.com/content/images/2023/02/fiksjopwiaahr7k-1673643417g0jtu.png

the cost of 1 kalibr missile is around $980,000.
The US estimated Russian missile production to be below 50 a month and that included all the ballistic missiles and such. They're making less than 15 kalibrs a month.
So, all the data suggests their missile supply is going down, not up.

Also, if their military output is going up, how are they planning to replace the firepower of their ships, mainly Saratov, Moskva, Rostov on Don and Minsk? This isn't something you can bring back in a year or two.

What about 300 jets and 300 helicopters lost by Russia? This again is something they can't easily replace.

Even Russian propaganda channels aren't bold enough to say that the country is now stronger than it was before the war and its military capability has increased

Anybody can make up charts and graphs. It's inherent in Microsoft Excel to be able to do this.

Anybody can focus on a few losses or gains anywhere in any war.

If you really want to know what's going on, go through my posts - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=149737;sa=showPosts - and listen to the American military people I have quoted and shown videos for. This includes in some places, US government people. Then, search out the same from all over the Internet.

Basically what is happening in this war is, the Ukraine is instantly lost if the US and Nato stop sending them help. And the US and Nato are depleting their own weapons and militaries while Russia is manufacturing more. In addition, Russia is making agreements with other countries who don't really like the US all that much = really dislike the US.

Wake up and look at what is going on. The people in the US don't want another Viet Nam. If Biden doesn't get us out of Ukraine, he won't be reelected, and Trump will get us out of Ukraine.

There are quite serious statistics are they are not made by just anyone. RUSI, The Institute for the Study of War and other think-tanks and institutions have a decent understanding of Ruzzia's production capabilities.

It is clear for anyone to see that, at this rate, Ruzzia is self-demilitarising itself quite efficiently and quickly. The rate at which missiles are fired has dropped massively. The artillery shelling locations by satellites are massively on Ruzzian controlled territory. Of course you can find military, particularly those retired looking for a buck here and there to "have an opinion", but there are hard facts on this: Ruzzia cannot keep up - it is simply impossible for Ruzzia to cover the rate of losses in this type of high intensity war - and Ukraine is catching up, perhaps except in air power - for now of course.

Lets have some factual information for a change:



the red dots represent a fire. The orange territory is occupied Ukraine. It is obvious who is taking the initiative. Even better if you see the July report here.

If you think of recent events, like the destruction of a submarine and a ship in Sevastopol, drones striking near Moscow, facilities burning all over Ruzzia... Even you should see that this is not going Putin's way. From "in Kiev in three days" to let's try not to loose Crimea in three years. That's where this is heading.

https://rusi.org/news-and-comment/in-the-news/how-russia-lost-5000-artillery-systems-ukraine

It is hard to work out just how much Russia's artillery has been degraded

The Ukrainian General Staff's figure of 5,000 systems lost could be "pretty close to the mark," said retired British Army Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, who previously commanded U.K. and NATO chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defense forces.

US does not want another Vietnam of course. And there is zero chance of that happening because the US is not ever going to send their own soldiers to Ukraine. Trump is unlikely to pull out of Ukraine... from jail.

It is time for you to wake up: this war is cheaper to maintain than loosing it and going back to cold war, Ukraine has enough human power, determination and resilience to win and despite the efforts of Ruzzian lovers like yourself, the people do understand this.

[LTU_btc]

Also, I have the feeling that the previous attack on a radar system by special troops has a lot to do with these successful attacks by Ukraine.

And these strikes on very expensive equipment continues, last night Ukraine destroyed S-400 Triumf air defrnse system in Crimea. And it's not some old shit from Soviet times, but new, modern system, worth over $500 m.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-destroyed-russian-air-defense-system-with-cruise-missiles-report-2023-9

It is clear for anyone to see that, at this rate, Ruzzia is self-demilitarising itself quite efficiently and quickly. The rate at which missiles are fired has dropped massively. The artillery shelling locations by satellites are massively on Ruzzian controlled territory. Of course you can find military, particularly those retired looking for a buck here and there to "have an opinion", but there are hard facts on this: Ruzzia cannot keep up - it is simply impossible for Ruzzia to cover the rate of losses in this type of high intensity war - and Ukraine is catching up, perhaps except in air power - for now of course.

If everything would go as planned, then probably Russia wouldn't ask help from North Korea. Not China, not India, but f*cking North Korea, how low they can go?

[paxmao]

Also, I have the feeling that the previous attack on a radar system by special troops has a lot to do with these successful attacks by Ukraine.

And these strikes on very expensive equipment continues, last night Ukraine destroyed S-400 Triumf air defrnse system in Crimea. And it's not some old shit from Soviet times, but new, modern system, worth over $500 m.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-destroyed-russian-air-defense-system-with-cruise-missiles-report-2023-9

It is clear for anyone to see that, at this rate, Ruzzia is self-demilitarising itself quite efficiently and quickly. The rate at which missiles are fired has dropped massively. The artillery shelling locations by satellites are massively on Ruzzian controlled territory. Of course you can find military, particularly those retired looking for a buck here and there to "have an opinion", but there are hard facts on this: Ruzzia cannot keep up - it is simply impossible for Ruzzia to cover the rate of losses in this type of high intensity war - and Ukraine is catching up, perhaps except in air power - for now of course.

If everything would go as planned, then probably Russia wouldn't ask help from North Korea. Not China, not India, but f*cking North Korea, how low they can go?

North Korea is armed to their teeth and it is unlikely that anyone else would receive him. The "demilitarised zone" between the Koreas is the most militarised border in the world. Both Koreas have a net of bunkers and defences and a concentration of artillery pieces that make Ukraine look like a monopoly game.

It is very likely that Kim will sell Putin as many shells as he asks for - mostly because they, like the US to a point, have an arsenal of stuff that has an expiration date so they will be happy to sell it for the cheap. My guess is that one in every five of these is going to be a "dud" more likely to kill the Ruzzian artillery grunt than the objective.

[TwitchySeal]

Anybody can make up charts and graphs. It's inherent in Microsoft Excel to be able to do this.

Anybody can make up words and sentences.  It's inherent in Microsoft Word to be able to do this.

You really phoned that one in BADecker.

[paxmao]

Unconfirmed - pro-Ruzzian sources are speaking of an evacuation by Ukraine of nearly all villages along the dnipro river ; during winter, the river will be covered by a 1 foot thick layer of solid ice; There's no "Surovikin" line in the shores of the rives. Make of it what you want.

Also (unconfirmed rumour), UK has sent to Ukraine a drone capable of carrying and launching an anti-air missile. The compensation for job risk may raise quite fast for Ruzzian helicopter pilots.

edited to add:
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/09/14/uk-drone-fires-missiles/


Hydra 400 - This can be carried in the back of a truck and be ready to fly in a few minutes. My guess, UK is going to "combat test-it" in Ruzzian helicopters. I think sales will be good in the future.

[BADecker]

^^^ Ukraine has just about had it. Any support from the US or Nato is simply a face saving show.

UKRAINE: Last Push, or Scuttling the Boat? SITREP 9.15.23

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8OEmqTHOfI

[Macoach]

Solution:  Americans should be driving tanks towards the Russia/Ukraine border right now.  Nato needs to deploy 100K soldiers into Eastern Ukraine at once.  Make Ukraine a NATO member.
 

Bad idea ! Putin de strange could take this as an art of war and decide to go full scale bombing on the Americans and all her allies and the war escalates to a nato vs un war and we have a War of the dammed