Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[paxmao]

Solution:  Americans should be driving tanks towards the Russia/Ukraine border right now.  Nato needs to deploy 100K soldiers into Eastern Ukraine at once.  Make Ukraine a NATO member.
 

Bad idea ! Putin de strange could take this as an art of war and decide to go full scale bombing on the Americans and all her allies and the war escalates to a nato vs un war and we have a War of the dammed  

We have more than discussed nuclear escalation. Nuclear escalation is a loosing game an Putin is aware of it.

Newer updates seem to indicate that Ukraine is going to be opening a front across the dnipro river. Evacuation of villages and unconfirmed reports of troops gathering in the area seem to indicate that Ukraine may choose to launch some tentative offensive to free the territory in a less costly fashion.

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[be.open]

Newer updates seem to indicate that Ukraine is going to be opening a front across the dnipro river. Evacuation of villages and unconfirmed reports of troops gathering in the area seem to indicate that Ukraine may choose to launch some tentative offensive to free the territory in a less costly fashion.

Zelensky can evacuate all of Ukraine; it won’t help him take Tokmak before the cold weather, not to mention Melitopol and Berdyansk.

The entire result of the months-long Ukrainian counter-offensive is two completely destroyed villages of 500 people, Rabotino and Kleshcheevka. Moreover, to control Kleshcheevka, Ukraine will still have to try.

[DaRude]

Unconfirmed - pro-Ruzzian sources are speaking of an evacuation by Ukraine of nearly all villages along the dnipro river ; during winter, the river will be covered by a 1 foot thick layer of solid ice; There's no "Surovikin" line in the shores of the rives. Make of it what you want.

Also (unconfirmed rumour), UK has sent to Ukraine a drone capable of carrying and launching an anti-air missile. The compensation for job risk may raise quite fast for Ruzzian helicopter pilots.

edited to add:
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/09/14/uk-drone-fires-missiles/


Hydra 400 - This can be carried in the back of a truck and be ready to fly in a few minutes. My guess, UK is going to "combat test-it" in Ruzzian helicopters. I think sales will be good in the future.

Well lets see, in Kherson  coldest month is January with Average High:1.4C, Average low:-4.4C, Daily mean:-1.6C so a foot thick layer of solid ice on a river with moving water without a dam you say? A light car *might* be able to drive through if it gets extra cold, but forget about tanks. So sending soldiers in without heavy armor where they're backed into a river and all of the resupply lines and retreat would go over ice? You must be some kind of general, what could possibly go wrong with such plan? How many thousands of soldier lives should they try this ingenious plan with?



Can you stop these silly propaganda rumors? I'm still not sure if you're spreading this hopium for yourself, or you actually believe that you are convincing anyone that some miracle game changer weapon that can change the outcome of the war is just right around the corner? Anyone with half a brain would laugh at these "rumors". Deja vu

The latest shipment of weapons from US to Ukraine includes a significant number of "switchblade" drones (technically "munitions" as they are single use).

This is how they look:


As you can see, they look like a crap taken from a "Five below" shop, uh? And that is not that far from the truth to be honest. This costs around 6000 USD and comes in two flavours - tank destroyer and ant-personnel. It works like this - your average Joe McSoldier carries a tube that is not too heavy and requires 10 minutes to get ready. This happens well away the front line and well away the usual artillery range. You do not need an exceptional IQ to use this.



The drone is launched and can roam around for 40 mins or so and cover a few tens of miles. It carries sensors and the like and, once the operator decides there is an interesting target, it fixes on it and "kamikazes" onto it - be a tank, other vehicles or a platoon having tea.

Total cost of the operation:
Drone: 6000 USD
Infantry grunt: 30 USD per one hour of work.

Total loss for the enemy:
If hits a T-90: 2 million USDv + trained crew of 3
If hits a T-72: 0.6 million USD + trained crew of 5
If hits other stuff: 100 to 500k USD.

The big bingo is when you hit a S-400 anti-air system. We are talking millions USD.

Let's say the enemy shot's it down with a SAM:
Cost of a stinger or similar: 40k
If you are stupid and use a S-400: 10M USD

I am sure that most people in the forum understand that this is a game changer. Had Ukraine had 100 of these when the 40 mile long column was a sitting duck on the road to Kyiv, the war would have been quite different.

Remember, if you are a Russian soldier, you do not have to die for Putin. Sell your vehicle or aircraft to me or other honest buyers and see your family again some day or go west and relax all cool.

[Branko]

This is the best indicator how well is counteroffensive going

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1702422915772453281

[BADecker]

This is the best indicator how well is counteroffensive going

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1702422915772453281

And on top of that, here' a great indicator of how Russian and BRICS expansion is going. We all feel sorry for Ukraine, but in a few years almost nobody will even remember her.


In Vladivostok, the Russian Far East Rises


https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/09/no_author/in-vladivostok-the-russian-far-east-rises/
VLADIVOSTOK – Russian President Vladimir Putin opened and closed his quite detailed address to the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok with a resounding message: "The Far East is Russia's strategic priority for the entire 21st century."

And that's exactly the feeling one would have prior to the address, interacting with business executives mingling across the stunning forum grounds at the Far Eastern Federal University (opened only 11 years ago), with the backdrop of the more than four kilometer-long suspension bridge to Russky Island across the Eastern Bosphorus strait.

The development possibilities of what is in effect Russian Asia, and one of the key nodes of Asia-Pacific, are literally mind-boggling. Data from the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East and the Arctic – confirmed by several of the most eye-catching panels during the Forum – list a whopping 2,800 investment projects underway, 646 of which are already up and running, complete with the creation of several international Advanced Special Economic Zones (ASEZ) and the expansion of the Free Port of Vladivostok, home to several hundred small and midsize enterprises (SMEs).

All that goes way beyond Russia's "pivot to the East" which was announced by Putin in 2012, two years before the Maidan events in Kiev. For the rest of the planet, not to mention the collective west, it is impossible to understand the Russian Far East magic without being on the spot – starting with Vladivostok, the charming, unofficial capital of the Far East, with its gorgeous hills, striking architecture, verdant islands, sandy bays and of course the terminal of the legendary Trans-Siberian Railway.
...

[paxmao]

Newer updates seem to indicate that Ukraine is going to be opening a front across the dnipro river. Evacuation of villages and unconfirmed reports of troops gathering in the area seem to indicate that Ukraine may choose to launch some tentative offensive to free the territory in a less costly fashion.

Zelensky can evacuate all of Ukraine; it won’t help him take Tokmak before the cold weather, not to mention Melitopol and Berdyansk.

The entire result of the months-long Ukrainian counter-offensive is two completely destroyed villages of 500 people, Rabotino and Kleshcheevka. Moreover, to control Kleshcheevka, Ukraine will still have to try.

That's ok. If the front does not collapse to Tokmak, see you there next year. However, I wonder why is the RF army building more fortifications precisely around Tokmak. Maybe they are not as well informed as you are.

Edit to add: I think they have done exactly the same I just did: click "measure distance" from the front to the centre of Tokmak. What would you say is an standard "artillery range" (hint: 20 km is less).

Unconfirmed - pro-Ruzzian sources are speaking of an evacuation by Ukraine of nearly all villages along the dnipro river ; during winter, the river will be covered by a 1 foot thick layer of solid ice; There's no "Surovikin" line in the shores of the rives. Make of it what you want.

Also (unconfirmed rumour), UK has sent to Ukraine a drone capable of carrying and launching an anti-air missile. The compensation for job risk may raise quite fast for Ruzzian helicopter pilots.

[...]

Hydra 400 - This can be carried in the back of a truck and be ready to fly in a few minutes. My guess, UK is going to "combat test-it" in Ruzzian helicopters. I think sales will be good in the future.

Well lets see, in Kherson  coldest month is January with Average High:1.4C, Average low:-4.4C, Daily mean:-1.6C so a foot thick layer of solid ice on a river with moving water without a dam you say? A light car *might* be able to drive through if it gets extra cold, but forget about tanks. So sending soldiers in without heavy armor where they're backed into a river and all of the resupply lines and retreat would go over ice? You must be some kind of general, what could possibly go wrong with such plan? How many thousands of soldier lives should they try this ingenious plan with?



Can you stop these silly propaganda rumors? I'm still not sure if you're spreading this hopium for yourself, or you actually believe that you are convincing anyone that some miracle game changer weapon that can change the outcome of the war is just right around the corner? Anyone with half a brain would laugh at these "rumors". Deja vu

The latest shipment of weapons from US to Ukraine includes a significant number of "switchblade" drones (technically "munitions" as they are single use).

This is how they look:


As you can see, they look like a crap taken from a "Five below" shop, uh? And that is not that far from the truth to be honest. This costs around 6000 USD and comes in two flavours - tank destroyer and ant-personnel. It works like this - your average Joe McSoldier carries a tube that is not too heavy and requires 10 minutes to get ready. This happens well away the front line and well away the usual artillery range. You do not need an exceptional IQ to use this.



The drone is launched and can roam around for 40 mins or so and cover a few tens of miles. It carries sensors and the like and, once the operator decides there is an interesting target, it fixes on it and "kamikazes" onto it - be a tank, other vehicles or a platoon having tea.

Total cost of the operation:
Drone: 6000 USD
Infantry grunt: 30 USD per one hour of work.

Total loss for the enemy:
If hits a T-90: 2 million USDv + trained crew of 3
If hits a T-72: 0.6 million USD + trained crew of 5
If hits other stuff: 100 to 500k USD.

The big bingo is when you hit a S-400 anti-air system. We are talking millions USD.

Let's say the enemy shot's it down with a SAM:
Cost of a stinger or similar: 40k
If you are stupid and use a S-400: 10M USD

I am sure that most people in the forum understand that this is a game changer. Had Ukraine had 100 of these when the 40 mile long column was a sitting duck on the road to Kyiv, the war would have been quite different.

Remember, if you are a Russian soldier, you do not have to die for Putin. Sell your vehicle or aircraft to me or other honest buyers and see your family again some day or go west and relax all cool.

Please notice in bold my "make of it want you want" -  I can see you have followed my instructions to the letter and start imagining a tank division running to Crimea through the ice. Good boy.

Re Switchblades, they have been used in the front, so as usual you are trying to attack ad-hominem (by questioning the veracity of something that is well documented to be true), which is usually as sign of having no argument.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhZzsVkdLAk

Switchblade 6000 US
Tank 2000000 US

Any other questions?

The Hydra-400... you will need to tell me a bit more how this is not correct, because the vehicle exists, it has the capabilities I say and I clearly stated that is unconfirmed that these may be sent to Ukraine... so....maybe or maybe next year.

Furthermore, I would say that drones have certainly been a game changer in the war. Particularly the "suicide ones" like switchblade and many other. Just listen to a million testimonies from soldiers and view hours of footage. Not to mention the surveillance ones.

RE how many lives... as said many times before, you need to ask Putin how many more lives are still ok for him. He withdraws, pays war compensations, goes to be judged for war crimes and all this ends.

You have put forward your "peace plan" consisting in Ukraine surrendering. It simply does not work, a Ruzzia that manages to win territory from this war means a Ruzzia that comes back for more in 5 years. do not pretend to care about lives, you are just another troll... a not particularly effective one.

If you think of it is almost funny: you punch someone in the face, all the sudden you find out that the guy is actually much bigger than you thought and is hitting back - then you say "oh, come on, until when are we going to keep fighting each other". So cynical.

[DaRude]

Newer updates seem to indicate that Ukraine is going to be opening a front across the dnipro river. Evacuation of villages and unconfirmed reports of troops gathering in the area seem to indicate that Ukraine may choose to launch some tentative offensive to free the territory in a less costly fashion.

Zelensky can evacuate all of Ukraine; it won’t help him take Tokmak before the cold weather, not to mention Melitopol and Berdyansk.

The entire result of the months-long Ukrainian counter-offensive is two completely destroyed villages of 500 people, Rabotino and Kleshcheevka. Moreover, to control Kleshcheevka, Ukraine will still have to try.

That's ok. If the front does not collapse to Tokmak, see you there next year. However, I wonder why is the RF army building more fortifications precisely around Tokmak. Maybe they are not as well informed as you are.

Edit to add: I think they have done exactly the same I just did: click "measure distance" from the front to the centre of Tokmak. What would you say is an standard "artillery range" (hint: 20 km is less).

Unconfirmed - pro-Ruzzian sources are speaking of an evacuation by Ukraine of nearly all villages along the dnipro river ; during winter, the river will be covered by a 1 foot thick layer of solid ice; There's no "Surovikin" line in the shores of the rives. Make of it what you want.

Also (unconfirmed rumour), UK has sent to Ukraine a drone capable of carrying and launching an anti-air missile. The compensation for job risk may raise quite fast for Ruzzian helicopter pilots.

[...]

Hydra 400 - This can be carried in the back of a truck and be ready to fly in a few minutes. My guess, UK is going to "combat test-it" in Ruzzian helicopters. I think sales will be good in the future.

Well lets see, in Kherson  coldest month is January with Average High:1.4C, Average low:-4.4C, Daily mean:-1.6C so a foot thick layer of solid ice on a river with moving water without a dam you say? A light car *might* be able to drive through if it gets extra cold, but forget about tanks. So sending soldiers in without heavy armor where they're backed into a river and all of the resupply lines and retreat would go over ice? You must be some kind of general, what could possibly go wrong with such plan? How many thousands of soldier lives should they try this ingenious plan with?



Can you stop these silly propaganda rumors? I'm still not sure if you're spreading this hopium for yourself, or you actually believe that you are convincing anyone that some miracle game changer weapon that can change the outcome of the war is just right around the corner? Anyone with half a brain would laugh at these "rumors". Deja vu

The latest shipment of weapons from US to Ukraine includes a significant number of "switchblade" drones (technically "munitions" as they are single use).

This is how they look:


As you can see, they look like a crap taken from a "Five below" shop, uh? And that is not that far from the truth to be honest. This costs around 6000 USD and comes in two flavours - tank destroyer and ant-personnel. It works like this - your average Joe McSoldier carries a tube that is not too heavy and requires 10 minutes to get ready. This happens well away the front line and well away the usual artillery range. You do not need an exceptional IQ to use this.



The drone is launched and can roam around for 40 mins or so and cover a few tens of miles. It carries sensors and the like and, once the operator decides there is an interesting target, it fixes on it and "kamikazes" onto it - be a tank, other vehicles or a platoon having tea.

Total cost of the operation:
Drone: 6000 USD
Infantry grunt: 30 USD per one hour of work.

Total loss for the enemy:
If hits a T-90: 2 million USDv + trained crew of 3
If hits a T-72: 0.6 million USD + trained crew of 5
If hits other stuff: 100 to 500k USD.

The big bingo is when you hit a S-400 anti-air system. We are talking millions USD.

Let's say the enemy shot's it down with a SAM:
Cost of a stinger or similar: 40k
If you are stupid and use a S-400: 10M USD

I am sure that most people in the forum understand that this is a game changer. Had Ukraine had 100 of these when the 40 mile long column was a sitting duck on the road to Kyiv, the war would have been quite different.

Remember, if you are a Russian soldier, you do not have to die for Putin. Sell your vehicle or aircraft to me or other honest buyers and see your family again some day or go west and relax all cool.

Please notice in bold my "make of it want you want" -  I can see you have followed my instructions to the letter and start imagining a tank division running to Crimea through the ice. Good boy.

Re Switchblades, they have been used in the front, so as usual you are trying to attack ad-hominem (by questioning the veracity of something that is well documented to be true), which is usually as sign of having no argument.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhZzsVkdLAk

Switchblade 6000 US
Tank 2000000 US

Any other questions?

The Hydra-400... you will need to tell me a bit more how this is not correct, because the vehicle exists, it has the capabilities I say and I clearly stated that is unconfirmed that these may be sent to Ukraine... so....maybe or maybe next year.

Furthermore, I would say that drones have certainly been a game changer in the war. Particularly the "suicide ones" like switchblade and many other. Just listen to a million testimonies from soldiers and view hours of footage. Not to mention the surveillance ones.

RE how many lives... as said many times before, you need to ask Putin how many more lives are still ok for him. He withdraws, pays war compensations, goes to be judged for war crimes and all this ends.

You have put forward your "peace plan" consisting in Ukraine surrendering. It simply does not work, a Ruzzia that manages to win territory from this war means a Ruzzia that comes back for more in 5 years. do not pretend to care about lives, you are just another troll... a not particularly effective one.

If you think of it is almost funny: you punch someone in the face, all the sudden you find out that the guy is actually much bigger than you thought and is hitting back - then you say "oh, come on, until when are we going to keep fighting each other". So cynical.

You can close your eyes and start imagine anything you want, there's just no need to write about it here, attempt to write something informative, constructive and objective as best as you can (surely this crap doesn't come close)

Are you saying that you can make up any fairy tale, like rumors of aliens providing weapons to Ukraine, as long as you follow it up with "Make of it what you want."? I guess the reader would make of it that you're pushing yet another silly propaganda.

-First claims switchblade will be a "game changer", does math for switchblade vs S-400
I mention that they objectively have not been a game changer, in fact not many even mention them anymore
-Now changes the tune from "game changer" to that they "have been used in the front"   and then generalizes so switchblades became "drones have certainly been a game changer" and finally claims ad hominem?

Does more silly math, now can you do the same kind of math for RU mine vs Leopard 2, and attempt to explain what conclusions can be drawn from that and the point of such maths? Weren't there claims from UA of some soldier shooting down a RU jet with some firearm, do math on that cost of bullet vs jet to mislead some more.

What next shall we expect from you, how Ukraine might receive LGM-30G Minuteman, maybe or maybe next year, or a year after that, or never?
I have seen hours of footage of drones, but probably unlike you, I've seen hours of footage from both sides. If you watch them one sided, only conclusion that can be made is that drones are used and video serves as a great propaganda and morale booster for both sides. So the real questions is not whether drones are effective weapon, but which side is benefit from them more? Now I'd love to hear some analysis on that, like a chart of monthly UA claimed drone launches and their claimed success rate, or some proposal for 10.000s of thousand of drones for UA? Here's some info on the RU side:

Cheap Russian drone a menace to Ukrainian troops and equipment
...
As Russia's invasion enters its 17th month, Ukrainian forces say Moscow is ramping up its use of low-cost suicide drones that are capable of destroying equipment many times their value and not easy to defend against
...
Videos posted by pro-Russian social media channels over the last month appear to show Lancet drones damaging or destroying Ukraine's valuable Western-donated equipment, such as a Leopard 2 tank and a Caesar self-propelled howitzer.
...
Ukrainian servicemen from four different artillery crews named Lancets as one of the main threats they faced on the battlefield in conversations with Reuters.

Several soldiers said the frequency of its use had increased in recent months.
"Earlier, in spring, they were not using Lancets as often as they are now," 35-year-old artillery gunner Bohdan, who gave his call sign as Doc, told Reuters near Avdiivka on the Donetsk region frontlines.
...
Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister, acknowledged that Russia's increasing use of Lancets created difficulties.
...
However, despite being less powerful than an artillery shell or most rockets, the Lancet appears to be able to inflict significant damage.

Lancet: The Russian Kamikaze Drone Blunting Ukraine's Counteroffensive. Russia’s ZALA Lancet drones have emerged as one of the biggest dangers faced by Ukrainian forces amid Kyiv’s ongoing counteroffensive, and frontline troops say use of the drones has ramped up in recent months.

Inside the Russian effort to build 6,000 attack drones with Iran’s help
Leaked documents show that Moscow is progressing toward its goal of mass-producing UAVs it could use to pummel Ukrainian cities
...
This was Russia’s billion-dollar weapons deal with Iran coming to life in November, 500 miles east of Moscow in the Tatarstan region. Its aim is to domestically build 6,000 drones by summer 2025
...
Altogether, the documents indicate that, despite delays and a production process that is deeply reliant on foreign-produced electronic components, Moscow has made steady progress toward its goal of manufacturing a variant of the Iranian Shahed-136, an attack drone capable of traveling more than 1,000 miles.
...
The engineers also are exploring improvements to the drone itself, including making it capable of swarm attacks in which the UAVs autonomously coordinate a strike on a target.
...
Even so, David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector who helped lead the research team that studied the documents, said: “Alabuga looks to be seeking a drone developmental capability that exceeds Iran’s.”
...
“Russia has a credible way of building over the next year or so a capability to go from periodically launching tens of imported Shahed-136 kamikaze drones against Ukrainian targets to more regularly attacking with hundreds of them,” Albright told The Post.

This is to show some indication of scale of drones on the RU side and their effects, and it's from a western source, so safe to say that you should expect them to downplay RU capabilities. I'd venture a guess that one of the prime targets for RU would be to completely knock out UA power grid this winter which they failed to fully achieve last winter. For that they need to save up a lot of drones/missiles, the fact that they're still using dozens of drones/missiles now (instead of saving for the winter) shows that they feel comfortable in their capabilities to achieve needed scale before the winter. Naturally, UA needs to do everything to force RU to use up as much of their stock now instead of piling them up for the winter.

Edit: As far as "peace plan", you're not a kid who can just claim something doesn't work for him and that's it, there's no free lunch and there's cost to everything. Do you think anyone asked Cuba whether US blockade works for it? The two possible outcomes is either miracle comes and UA is somehow able to push to the sea of Azov thus having a stronger position before eventual negotiations (looking more and more unlikely), or our overlords said that the outcome is binary so we either suicide everyone or return 1991 borders.

[be.open]

Newer updates seem to indicate that Ukraine is going to be opening a front across the dnipro river. Evacuation of villages and unconfirmed reports of troops gathering in the area seem to indicate that Ukraine may choose to launch some tentative offensive to free the territory in a less costly fashion.

Zelensky can evacuate all of Ukraine; it won’t help him take Tokmak before the cold weather, not to mention Melitopol and Berdyansk.

The entire result of the months-long Ukrainian counter-offensive is two completely destroyed villages of 500 people, Rabotino and Kleshcheevka. Moreover, to control Kleshcheevka, Ukraine will still have to try.

That's ok. If the front does not collapse to Tokmak, see you there next year. However, I wonder why is the RF army building more fortifications precisely around Tokmak. Maybe they are not as well informed as you are.

Edit to add: I think they have done exactly the same I just did: click "measure distance" from the front to the centre of Tokmak. What would you say is an standard "artillery range" (hint: 20 km is less).

Tokmak is a key city, without which it is impossible to solve the main task of the Ukrainian counter-offensive to cut the land corridor to Crimea. It is not enough to put pressure from cannon artillery on Tokmak itself; you need to at least get close to it in order to start putting pressure from cannon artillery on the main transport arteries that pass through Tokmak to Berdyansk and Melitopol. That is why the Ukrainian counter-offensive is a complete failure, and local successes at Kleshcheevka and on the Vremevsky ledge are nothing more than consoling media victories that can only slightly sweeten the bitter pill of disappointment. That is why pressure on Verbovoye is a wrong turn, and the activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kherson region is only to distract attention.

[paxmao]

Newer updates seem to indicate that Ukraine is going to be opening a front across the dnipro river. Evacuation of villages and unconfirmed reports of troops gathering in the area seem to indicate that Ukraine may choose to launch some tentative offensive to free the territory in a less costly fashion.

Zelensky can evacuate all of Ukraine; it won’t help him take Tokmak before the cold weather, not to mention Melitopol and Berdyansk.

The entire result of the months-long Ukrainian counter-offensive is two completely destroyed villages of 500 people, Rabotino and Kleshcheevka. Moreover, to control Kleshcheevka, Ukraine will still have to try.

That's ok. If the front does not collapse to Tokmak, see you there next year. However, I wonder why is the RF army building more fortifications precisely around Tokmak. Maybe they are not as well informed as you are.

Edit to add: I think they have done exactly the same I just did: click "measure distance" from the front to the centre of Tokmak. What would you say is an standard "artillery range" (hint: 20 km is less).

Tokmak is a key city, without which it is impossible to solve the main task of the Ukrainian counter-offensive to cut the land corridor to Crimea. It is not enough to put pressure from cannon artillery on Tokmak itself; you need to at least get close to it in order to start putting pressure from cannon artillery on the main transport arteries that pass through Tokmak to Berdyansk and Melitopol. That is why the Ukrainian counter-offensive is a complete failure, and local successes at Kleshcheevka and on the Vremevsky ledge are nothing more than consoling media victories that can only slightly sweeten the bitter pill of disappointment. That is why pressure on Verbovoye is a wrong turn, and the activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kherson region is only to distract attention.

20 km is close in my book. If it can be reached or not before conditions are no longer suitable is a question of chances... how soon the rain comes and how heavy, if the tactic can be adapted to that weather, if Ruzzian reserves are (and some people think they are) quite depleted, a possible "goodwill gesture" by some units, if the US sends ATACAMS,...

I would give it a 50 / 50 of not as much taking Tokmak as cutting the railways & having artillery & surveillance control through the rout.

Also, I do expect more activity along the dnipro, I would not bet the house on not having a serious attempt of an assault from that direction.

Let me see:

- A elite unit destroyed a difficult to replace s-400 in Crimea and damaged another one recently.
- Through the air defence gap, 10 stormshadows hit a landing ship and a submarine and make clear that ships are unsafe in the area.
- The banks of the dnipro are evacuated.
- In winter, the land is swampy, but the sea is not and the river may be usable.

Make of it what you want. I think there will be no pause in Ukraine's offensive and the army are doing the preparations for a different tactic.

Edited to add: France and Ukraine are in conversations to provide Mirage planes to Ukraine. The date of delivery and details of the models are not public, but the key capability is carrying and launching missiles, including the famous (infamous?) French Exocet air to ship missile. I remember that very old versions caused plenty of problems to the UK during the Falklands war with Argentina.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exocet

[tvbcof]

Judging by the metrics reports, looks like Ukraine is milked dry with a notable slowdown in ordnance delivery to their enemy while Russia is starting rolling into a mode of continuous shelling even when not softening up for an eminent attack.  Some suggest this is as an indication that contracts for supply of 155mm with North Korea have been inked.  The fruits of 70 years of abuse since the U.N. sponsored (and prosecuted) civil war I suppose.

According to Joogle Translate one says "Payback is a bitch!" in Korean as follows:

복수는 개년아!
bogsuneun gaenyeon-a!

[paxmao]

Judging by the metrics reports, looks like Ukraine is milked dry with a notable slowdown in ordnance delivery to their enemy while Russia is starting rolling into a mode of continuous shelling even when not softening up for an eminent attack.  Some suggest this is as an indication that contracts for supply of 155mm with North Korea have been inked.  The fruits of 70 years of abuse since the U.N. sponsored (and prosecuted) civil war I suppose.

According to Joogle Translate one says "Payback is a bitch!" in Korean as follows:

복수는 개년아!
bogsuneun gaenyeon-a!

My guess is that you are reading official propaganda, because the satelite images show 100 times more fires burning in Ruzzian territory than in Ukraine. Facts eat opinion for breakfast. If you want opinion, mine is that in the conter-battery duels, there is evidence of HIMARs being very successful on destroying pieces of Ruzzian / Soviet equipment.

The fat guy from NK meeting with Putin is meaningless, the two countries have been working together since long time. That is pretty much how China is keeping Ruzzia alive with dual use parts.

[BADecker]

Judging by the metrics reports, looks like Ukraine is milked dry with a notable slowdown in ordnance delivery to their enemy while Russia is starting rolling into a mode of continuous shelling even when not softening up for an eminent attack.  Some suggest this is as an indication that contracts for supply of 155mm with North Korea have been inked.  The fruits of 70 years of abuse since the U.N. sponsored (and prosecuted) civil war I suppose.

According to Joogle Translate one says "Payback is a bitch!" in Korean as follows:

복수는 개년아!
bogsuneun gaenyeon-a!

My guess is that you are reading official propaganda, because the satelite images show 100 times more fires burning in Ruzzian territory than in Ukraine. Facts eat opinion for breakfast. If you want opinion, mine is that in the conter-battery duels, there is evidence of HIMARs being very successful on destroying pieces of Ruzzian / Soviet equipment.

The fat guy from NK meeting with Putin is meaningless, the two countries have been working together since long time. That is pretty much how China is keeping Ruzzia alive with dual use parts.

Why would there be more fires in Russia? Because Russia is a big country with few people per square mile. It's easy to set fires. A few Ukrainian people can slip in and start fires. It's difficult to tell the difference between an Ukrainian and a Russian, because they have such a mixed background.

What about the fires in Ukraine? Honorable Russia isn't going into Ukraine and doing such things. All Russia is after is to protect its own people, and Ukrainians, in the Eastern areas of Ukraine, where the Ukrainian government and military suddenly turned on them.

If Russia wanted to, they could set all kinds of fires all over Ukraine. And if the US keeps on pushing Ukraine into continuing the war, that's just what will happen.

Think about it. Who is fighting the war on the Ukraine side? It isn't many Ukrainians any longer. Rather, it is Nato and US troops. If Ukraine happened to win the war, Ukraine would have won nothing, because the vast majority of Ukrainians have immigrated or are dead in the war. Ukraine has become US and Nato land. The question is, after the war is over, will anybody let the few living Ukrainians that are still there, remain and live there?

If Russia wins, they will let Ukrainians live there, and maybe even have their autonomous government back.

If the US wins, they might let Ukrainians live there, but they will be forced into IRS-like taxes.

Ukraine is simply lost.

[Alik Bahshi]

Judging by the metrics reports, looks like Ukraine is milked dry with a notable slowdown in ordnance delivery to their enemy while Russia is starting rolling into a mode of continuous shelling even when not softening up for an eminent attack.  Some suggest this is as an indication that contracts for supply of 155mm with North Korea have been inked.  The fruits of 70 years of abuse since the U.N. sponsored (and prosecuted) civil war I suppose.

According to Joogle Translate one says "Payback is a bitch!" in Korean as follows:

복수는 개년아!
bogsuneun gaenyeon-a!

My guess is that you are reading official propaganda, because the satelite images show 100 times more fires burning in Ruzzian territory than in Ukraine. Facts eat opinion for breakfast. If you want opinion, mine is that in the conter-battery duels, there is evidence of HIMARs being very successful on destroying pieces of Ruzzian / Soviet equipment.

The fat guy from NK meeting with Putin is meaningless, the two countries have been working together since long time. That is pretty much how China is keeping Ruzzia alive with dual use parts.

Why would there be more fires in Russia? Because Russia is a big country with few people per square mile. It's easy to set fires. A few Ukrainian people can slip in and start fires. It's difficult to tell the difference between an Ukrainian and a Russian, because they have such a mixed background.

What about the fires in Ukraine? Honorable Russia isn't going into Ukraine and doing such things. All Russia is after is to protect its own people, and Ukrainians, in the Eastern areas of Ukraine, where the Ukrainian government and military suddenly turned on them.

If Russia wanted to, they could set all kinds of fires all over Ukraine. And if the US keeps on pushing Ukraine into continuing the war, that's just what will happen.

Think about it. Who is fighting the war on the Ukraine side? It isn't many Ukrainians any longer. Rather, it is Nato and US troops. If Ukraine happened to win the war, Ukraine would have won nothing, because the vast majority of Ukrainians have immigrated or are dead in the war. Ukraine has become US and Nato land. The question is, after the war is over, will anybody let the few living Ukrainians that are still there, remain and live there?

If Russia wins, they will let Ukrainians live there, and maybe even have their autonomous government back.

If the US wins, they might let Ukrainians live there, but they will be forced into IRS-like taxes.

Ukraine is simply lost.

You better worry about yourself, because this is a war in Ukraine, this is Russia’s last war.
 

[BADecker]

~

Why would there be more fires in Russia? Because Russia is a big country with few people per square mile. It's easy to set fires. A few Ukrainian people can slip in and start fires. It's difficult to tell the difference between an Ukrainian and a Russian, because they have such a mixed background.

What about the fires in Ukraine? Honorable Russia isn't going into Ukraine and doing such things. All Russia is after is to protect its own people, and Ukrainians, in the Eastern areas of Ukraine, where the Ukrainian government and military suddenly turned on them.

If Russia wanted to, they could set all kinds of fires all over Ukraine. And if the US keeps on pushing Ukraine into continuing the war, that's just what will happen.

Think about it. Who is fighting the war on the Ukraine side? It isn't many Ukrainians any longer. Rather, it is Nato and US troops. If Ukraine happened to win the war, Ukraine would have won nothing, because the vast majority of Ukrainians have immigrated or are dead in the war. Ukraine has become US and Nato land. The question is, after the war is over, will anybody let the few living Ukrainians that are still there, remain and live there?

If Russia wins, they will let Ukrainians live there, and maybe even have their autonomous government back.

If the US wins, they might let Ukrainians live there, but they will be forced into IRS-like taxes.

Ukraine is simply lost.

You better worry about yourself, because this is a war in Ukraine, this is Russia’s last war.
 

My salvation by Jesus is always with me, whether I live or die. What about you? will you be living in Heaven in joy? Or will your eternity be in Hell?

The continual pushing by the US to take over the world is uniting the nations against the US. The US has been strong simply because God has given them strength because they followed Him.  Now that a good portion of America is turning away from God, He is allowing the BRICS nations, and the many nations that want to become part of BRICS, to have strength.

The US and Nato will fail, as will their rotten banking system. They will be conquered for a time by the BRICS nations. Then Jesus will return and conquer the BRICS nations, and all the evil everywhere on earth. He will do this to help His small group of faithful people. Then the end will come for everybody. Read the New Testament in the Bible to see how this will happen.

But for you, bring yourself under Jesus by faith in Him. You don't have any power to live without somebody else making you strong enough so that you can live. And Jesus is the only one who can do it, because He is the Son of God. He offers it to you and everybody. So change while you have time, before it is too late for you, and you are lost forever.

[paxmao]

Judging by the metrics reports, looks like Ukraine is milked dry with a notable slowdown in ordnance delivery to their enemy while Russia is starting rolling into a mode of continuous shelling even when not softening up for an eminent attack.  Some suggest this is as an indication that contracts for supply of 155mm with North Korea have been inked.  The fruits of 70 years of abuse since the U.N. sponsored (and prosecuted) civil war I suppose.

According to Joogle Translate one says "Payback is a bitch!" in Korean as follows:

복수는 개년아!
bogsuneun gaenyeon-a!

My guess is that you are reading official propaganda, because the satelite images show 100 times more fires burning in Ruzzian territory than in Ukraine. Facts eat opinion for breakfast. If you want opinion, mine is that in the conter-battery duels, there is evidence of HIMARs being very successful on destroying pieces of Ruzzian / Soviet equipment.

The fat guy from NK meeting with Putin is meaningless, the two countries have been working together since long time. That is pretty much how China is keeping Ruzzia alive with dual use parts.

Why would there be more fires in Russia? Because Russia is a big country with few people per square mile. It's easy to set fires. A few Ukrainian people can slip in and start fires. It's difficult to tell the difference between an Ukrainian and a Russian, because they have such a mixed background.

What about the fires in Ukraine? Honorable Russia isn't going into Ukraine and doing such things. All Russia is after is to protect its own people, and Ukrainians, in the Eastern areas of Ukraine, where the Ukrainian government and military suddenly turned on them.

If Russia wanted to, they could set all kinds of fires all over Ukraine. And if the US keeps on pushing Ukraine into continuing the war, that's just what will happen.

Think about it. Who is fighting the war on the Ukraine side? It isn't many Ukrainians any longer. Rather, it is Nato and US troops. If Ukraine happened to win the war, Ukraine would have won nothing, because the vast majority of Ukrainians have immigrated or are dead in the war. Ukraine has become US and Nato land. The question is, after the war is over, will anybody let the few living Ukrainians that are still there, remain and live there?

If Russia wins, they will let Ukrainians live there, and maybe even have their autonomous government back.

If the US wins, they might let Ukrainians live there, but they will be forced into IRS-like taxes.

Ukraine is simply lost.

Please try not to be an absolute dumbass - The fires analysed are in the Ukrainian territory controlled by Ruzzia. Just read a few posts back. If Ruzzia "wins" they will use the Ukrainians as they are using now the other minorities to wage war against Poland or Lithuania or whoever is next in the kleptocracy game. Nothing of what is happening is really new, except perhaps that Ruzzia severely miscalculated.

You are very keen on getting back to the cold war. I have certain suspicions that you are linked to the country that would benefit the most from a RF - US cold war.

Now to something worth the time, it seems that the head quarters of the Black sea fleet in Crimea has been hit.

https://youtu.be/EdiKtiBOxfM

[Branko]

Proof that USA planned this war back in 1993

https://www.thepostil.com/1993-the-barry-r-posen-plan-for-war-on-russia-via-zombie-state-ukraine/

[paxmao]

Proof that USA planned this war back in 1993

https://www.thepostil.com/1993-the-barry-r-posen-plan-for-war-on-russia-via-zombie-state-ukraine/

It is just some "conclusions" article from an

unauthorised biography of Baerbock

that is actually NOT linked, so ... I do not even have proof it exists. I think this falls under the category of biased opinion, even in the German article (linked) says that the "Greens" asking for further spend in weapons is "not pacifist" - who the f*ck would be a pacifist when Ruzzia, a nuclear power with a seat on the Security Council and veto power send half a million "green men" to invade a much weakly armed neighbour??? Get real!

To part of it I can give credit, as it seem like a classic defence strategy layout for a weak country against a stronger one - making the costs of an invasion so high that it is just not worth it. I guess now Putin is effectively getting a feeling of how it works in practice.

Similar to Taiwan, if fully committed, China might take the island... but they might also have an insurrection at home and be completely ruined in the process.

BTW among other information in the article, 12000 pounds to study in the LSE seems far too cheap. That's more like a term.

SERIOUS MATTERS:
- Confirmed, the US will send a "limited number" off ATACAMS to Ukraine with a side of general purpose munitions.
- 3 stormshadows hit the HQ of the RF baltic fleet. Rumour is that quite a few members of the high command were there right at that time.

So... I guess someone made of it what they wanted.

[Branko]

Proof that USA planned this war back in 1993

https://www.thepostil.com/1993-the-barry-r-posen-plan-for-war-on-russia-via-zombie-state-ukraine/

It is just some "conclusions" article from an

unauthorised biography of Baerbock

that is actually NOT linked, so ... I do not even have proof it exists. I think this falls under the category of biased opinion, even in the German article (linked) says that the "Greens" asking for further spend in weapons is "not pacifist" - who the f*ck would be a pacifist when Ruzzia, a nuclear power with a seat on the Security Council and veto power send half a million "green men" to invade a much weakly armed neighbour??? Get real!

To part of it I can give credit, as it seem like a classic defence strategy layout for a weak country against a stronger one - making the costs of an invasion so high that it is just not worth it. I guess now Putin is effectively getting a feeling of how it works in practice.

Similar to Taiwan, if fully committed, China might take the island... but they might also have an insurrection at home and be completely ruined in the process.

BTW among other information in the article, 12000 pounds to study in the LSE seems far too cheap. That's more like a term.

SERIOUS MATTERS:
- Confirmed, the US will send a "limited number" off ATACAMS to Ukraine with a side of general purpose munitions.
- 3 stormshadows hit the HQ of the RF baltic fleet. Rumour is that quite a few members of the high command were there right at that time.

So... I guess someone made of it what they wanted.

Umm, as usual you can't read (or pretend, maybe):

https://www.thepostil.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/US-Ukraine-Security-Cooperation-1993-2001-A-Case-History.pdf

[LTU_btc]

Strange that nobody didn't mentioned Ukraine strike on Black Sea Fleet headquarters. That moment of arrival of Storm Shadow rocket looks epic and people nearby just calmy hanging around https://t.me/Crimeanwind/43225
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/22/black-sea-navy-hq-hit-in-crimea-missile-attack-one-dead-russia
While Russians for more than 1.5 years threatens to attack decision making centers in Kyiv, Ukraine is actually doing it. And looks that attacks on Crimea become daily thing already.

[BADecker]

Zelensky is in Washington pushing for more money, etc., to extend the war... possibly forever... or at least until Russia collapses. It isn't Biden and the warmongering Dems and Reps who are the big pushers of the war. It's the military leaders, especially in the Pentagon <<< separate link. Of course Zelensky wants the war to continue. The longer the war, the more money he can siphon off the US, and sales of US military equipment.


Seymour Hersh: "It's All Lies. The War is Over. Russia has Won."


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/09/seymour-hersh-its-all-lies-war-is-russia/
"The war is over. Russia has won. There is no Ukrainian offensive anymore, but the White House and the American media have to keep the lie going," a senior US intel official told Hersh. "The truth is if the Ukrainian army is ordered to continue the offensive, the army would mutiny. The soldiers aren't willing to die any more, but this doesn't fit the B.S. that is being authored by the Biden White House."

As the first anniversary of the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline approaches next Tuesday, Hersh promised more revelations after his Feb. 8 scathing exposé of the Biden Regime's purported plot to commit the greatest act of industrial sabotage since WW II – against an ally, Germany.

As Volodymyr Zelensky made the rounds at the UN and in Washington, Hersh wrote that his intel source told him "the war continues … because Zelensky insists that it must."
...