Lotteries and possibility vs. probability

[Johnyz]

Government owned lottery have a lot of purpose to operate and in my country, they are a big help to many.
Many are hoping to win on lottery and some are spending a lot just to increase their probability to win unfortunately they are missing the numbers here as they are more focus to the reward. The probability is very low if you are just a single bettor, so better not to expect that much especially if you are not lucky into this kind of betting.

[coin-investor]

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

There are people winning the lotteries so why not give it a shot you could be the next winner in the next draw, for third-world countries like ours, winning a lottery is a lifetime dream of everyone here, they don't care about probabilities, you cannot talk them out of lottery because of probabilities of winning the lottery they will not accept the logic even if they know its almost impossible to win they will keep on buying hoping to be the next guy to be handled out a check worth millions.

[AmoreJaz]

Government owned lottery have a lot of purpose to operate and in my country, they are a big help to many.
Many are hoping to win on lottery and some are spending a lot just to increase their probability to win unfortunately they are missing the numbers here as they are more focus to the reward. The probability is very low if you are just a single bettor, so better not to expect that much especially if you are not lucky into this kind of betting.

that is true, government owned lotteries, they are serving a lot of people paying for their medical expenses and other charitable acts. so i have nothing against with them. people who are placing their bets know the risks. so it is up to them if they will use their hard-earned money on betting or not. but we all know the chance of winning here is like punching in the air. so are you willing to take the risk?

[notblox1]

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

100% true and I saw one documentary how some governments are faking their lotteries so it is totally rigged.
They are just milking more money from people and big winners are mostly their people, with rear exceptions that are allowed sometimes.
And even if you receive big money than you have to pay big amount of taxes, so they are taking all the time.
I always liked concept of lottery games but it is not always easy to know your chances, possibility and probability.
One thing is for sure, if you dont play you have zero chances of ever winning anything 

[Coin_trader]

Lotteries are popular because people can't count.

It's easy for us to calculate probability when something can happen 30% of a time or 10% of a time, our brain gets that, but when you go below 0.1% it really doesn't matter. Human brain sees it as very very low possibility, but existent. Then you can decrease it to 0.0001% and the person will still say that the possibility is very low, but it's there. So the lottery creators make sure you have a very very low chance, like 1 to a few million, and tell you that the entry fee is extremely low, like $1 and you go for it because your brain tells you "what if?"

This is true because on most cases, People is not looking on the probability of winning but rather on the potential prize size they think that they just betting small amount for a chance to win a money that will change their life. I never puchased a national lottery ticket because It’s hopeless for me to think that I will win a lottery with low win rate but I don’t blame other people for pursuing lottery bets since most of the lottery winners are common person that is a dreamer.

For me, Lottery is popular not because people can’t count since lotteries winning percentage is very popular as it is always being use as fun fact as the chance of being hit by a lightning twice is high probability than winning a lottery. Lottery is popular because of the huge jackpot prize in an exchange for a small bet same as slot games.

And that means, small time players can afford to buy lottery ticket, this is why a lot are buying such dream.
Many people are engage on this type of game because they have such belief that one day they may hit that jackpot.
So they keep on placing their bets, even it will cost a lil bit from their daily expenses, they will allocate such small fund.
And you will be surprised, a lot of them have numbers that they are taking care of for years, and use those to place bet.
There's no wrong about such belief, so long you are not using your money to buy your food, and it is your choice anyway.

Exactly, Lottery is designed to attract small players to contribute on pot with small bets since they don’t care much on winning probability and just keep their eyes on the price. I have a lot of relatives including elderly here that still purchasing lottery ticket since they are your until now without winning anything. The total amount they spend on their total lottery ticket is already enough to build a house if they just save it slowly. 

They just concluded it when they are already old yet they are still playing until now with all this conclusion on their mind. We none lotto players might not understand well what they are thinking but I guess their mind is already fixated on the jackpot prize and on how they will spend it once they won. This might be their motivation on why they keep playing despite the odds.

[DoublerHunter]

~snip~
On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

^ This is probably because the odds of winning are typically very low, and the majority of participants end up losing their money. However, if the revenue generated from these lotteries were directed towards public expenses that benefit the common good, it raises an interesting question.
Would you be willing to pay an additional 1 USD in annual taxes, knowing that it goes towards supporting public services and ensures that every taxpayer has the opportunity to dream of a better life?

[inthelongrun]

There are random days when I also buy lottery tickets for that dream. But ever since I shifted most of my betting to crypto gambling, I started to realize the near-to-zero chances of winning a lottery.

In my country though there were already rumors since I was a kid about how rigged our local lottery. But there are huge speculations when last year a $4 million draw was won by over 400 tickets which is just so unbelievable. Now I am more convinced that it is rigged and the near-zero chances of winning could've turned to zero due to our greedy and corrupt officials. So I might not buy a lottery ticket ever again.

[Lanatsa]

Lotteries are popular because people can't count.

It's easy for us to calculate probability when something can happen 30% of a time or 10% of a time, our brain gets that, but when you go below 0.1% it really doesn't matter. Human brain sees it as very very low possibility, but existent. Then you can decrease it to 0.0001% and the person will still say that the possibility is very low, but it's there. So the lottery creators make sure you have a very very low chance, like 1 to a few million, and tell you that the entry fee is extremely low, like $1 and you go for it because your brain tells you "what if?"

This is true because on most cases, People is not looking on the probability of winning but rather on the potential prize size they think that they just betting small amount for a chance to win a money that will change their life. I never puchased a national lottery ticket because It’s hopeless for me to think that I will win a lottery with low win rate but I don’t blame other people for pursuing lottery bets since most of the lottery winners are common person that is a dreamer.

For me, Lottery is popular not because people can’t count since lotteries winning percentage is very popular as it is always being use as fun fact as the chance of being hit by a lightning twice is high probability than winning a lottery. Lottery is popular because of the huge jackpot prize in an exchange for a small bet same as slot games.

And that means, small time players can afford to buy lottery ticket, this is why a lot are buying such dream.
Many people are engage on this type of game because they have such belief that one day they may hit that jackpot.
So they keep on placing their bets, even it will cost a lil bit from their daily expenses, they will allocate such small fund.
And you will be surprised, a lot of them have numbers that they are taking care of for years, and use those to place bet.
There's no wrong about such belief, so long you are not using your money to buy your food, and it is your choice anyway.

Exactly, Lottery is designed to attract small players to contribute on pot with small bets since they don’t care much on winning probability and just keep their eyes on the price. I have a lot of relatives including elderly here that still purchasing lottery ticket since they are your until now without winning anything. The total amount they spend on their total lottery ticket is already enough to build a house if they just save it slowly. 

They just concluded it when they are already old yet they are still playing until now with all this conclusion on their mind. We none lotto players might not understand well what they are thinking but I guess their mind is already fixated on the jackpot prize and on how they will spend it once they won. This might be their motivation on why they keep playing despite the odds.

Due on those tickets to be cheap on which this accumulation would really be no problem or wont really be taking too much time considering on how many people been betting on lottery and even if we do speak 1 buck

per ticket but overtime it would become big and this is why people do really get interested on betting on lotteries because they've been forseeing themselves on hitting the jackpot on just spending less or a dime.
On the time that you would really be having this kind of mindset then it wont really be bothersome for you to spend up even on day to day and considered these spending to be just an extra.
Despite of the winning chance or odds then you are pretty aware with it but since you are hoping on something then this is the primary reason on what it do push us to bet continously.

Winning on lottery is really that close to impossible but since its a bit passive and its not hard to make up a bet and doesnt cost much then its no surprise that there are
lots who are really that a fan on joining these draws for a very long time or even it would take forever.

[lionheart78]

Government owned lottery have a lot of purpose to operate and in my country, they are a big help to many.
Many are hoping to win on lottery and some are spending a lot just to increase their probability to win unfortunately they are missing the numbers here as they are more focus to the reward. The probability is very low if you are just a single bettor, so better not to expect that much especially if you are not lucky into this kind of betting.

that is true, government owned lotteries, they are serving a lot of people paying for their medical expenses and other charitable acts. so i have nothing against with them. people who are placing their bets know the risks. so it is up to them if they will use their hard-earned money on betting or not. but we all know the chance of winning here is like punching in the air. so are you willing to take the risk?

In my country, the national lotteries are the ones sponsoring people who have no means of paying their medical bills.  Charities are also dependent on the gaming sector for its operation and maintenance.  What's more, the infrastructure is often funded by lottery proceeds.  It is really a great help for society while giving people a chance to turn their life 180 degrees.

With a little contribution of millions of ticket buyer, lotteries are able to fill the fund needed by the government in improving the life of its contituents.

[Taskford]

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

100% true and I saw one documentary how some governments are faking their lotteries so it is totally rigged.
They are just milking more money from people and big winners are mostly their people, with rear exceptions that are allowed sometimes.
And even if you receive big money than you have to pay big amount of taxes, so they are taking all the time.
I always liked concept of lottery games but it is not always easy to know your chances, possibility and probability.
One thing is for sure, if you dont play you have zero chances of ever winning anything 

I remember this close to impossible event in Philippines before where there are 433  people win in grand lotto in this country http://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2022/10/2/433-bettors-win-P236M-Grand-Lotto-jackpot.html many people got curious or outrage with the result because many really think that this is manipulated since the chance to win on lottery is so slim and here you get 433 winners just like that. And this is the reason why many mock at them and call the authorities a result manipulator.

[khaled0111]

In my country, if you win the lottery or any other game of luck then you should pay 25% for taxes. You should consider yourself lucky that your government is not charging you that much. I've stopeed playing on international lotteries just because of this decrement. I'm not OK with playing games and paying 25% of whatever I win to the government. Better rob me and take what I have than take some of it as taxes.

[smyslov]

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

You cannot argue with people who prefer to chase their dreams and they are willing to spend money on it even if the chance is very slim because they see winners and their dream is the be the next bettor in line to win, people bet on the lottery because it is their shot to get to their dream because their jobs and the present situation will not let them gets closer to their dream, only by betting in a lottery they have a chance to do so and betting in a lottery is addictive, when you are chasing your dream and you have a way to do it even if it's impossible it's addictive to follow that method.

[Asuspawer09]

I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

For sure people didn't really do the math on this one, they just focus on the big prize when you win the lottery which is surely going to change their life. The chances are almost impossible but whatever you say there is always a chance that you are going to win the lottery. I mean it's also so cheap to buy a lottery ticket so people don't really mind spending that amount just to have a small chance. There are times here in my country when the lottery was won by probably 400 people so I guess they are going to split the prize on that one, there are some speculation that it is manipulated but still, even though the chances are slim, you can argue that it is still possible, also there are a lot of cases where people bet on the same number everytime and they just wait until there number win the lottery. Taxes are surely going to be a huge percentage but doesn't really matter as long as you have the half.

[Vaskiy]

Rather than the probability and the possibility people does lottery with some sort of hope. In my state lottery is banned, but the nearby state have got lottery legalised and the government itself is running it. People from my region used to travel around 50km and buy lotteries. This is just as a hope and for many people this have turned to be regular practice. Whether they win or not, they prefer buying it regularly. Every month they used to allocate separate fund for lottery ticket buying.

[PX-Z]

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.
...
national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

1$? That's only when you only bet 1-2 lottery ticket, but here in my area almost every month there is a huge pot that worth thousands to millions of dollars. But people here from average earner to low bet more than that so if you will compute annually you could end up more than what you are paying tax quarterly or even annually.

And ye, in terms of possibility, there's no possibility in on that kind of  bet. But in terms of probability, having that kind of percent? There's a chance yet. So every winner sure is really lucky, its like you consumed all of your luck for for a year after winning a lottery.

[dothebeats]

That's what happens when people are delusional to the reality that they want to happen: they ignore the math of it all, and rely mostly to miracles and false hopes. I wouldn't pay more to increase the chances of me winning on an infinitesimal scale, and if I want to help people that are having a hard time in life, I would donate to them directly, or to a cause that directly addresses their need without having to go through the route of gambling. What happens sometimes is, people who become addicted to lotteries are using the "help" aspect of it to justify their addiction, and that does not leave a good taste in my mouth.

[Quidat]

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.
...
national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

1$? That's only when you only bet 1-2 lottery ticket, but here in my area almost every month there is a huge pot that worth thousands to millions of dollars. But people here from average earner to low bet more than that so if you will compute annually you could end up more than what you are paying tax quarterly or even annually.

And ye, in terms of possibility, there's no possibility in on that kind of  bet. But in terms of probability, having that kind of percent? There's a chance yet. So every winner sure is really lucky, its like you consumed all of your luck for for a year after winning a lottery.

As long it wouldnt touch up that 0% then there's always that very very slim chance to win  and this is what they would be having mind and trying to get a hold with that kind of hope. Once you would
hit it up then it would really be a life changing situation which is something that you would really be hoping that you would be able to hit up that lottery but we know that it isnt something that could
achieve even on your lifetime. 1 or 2 lottery ticket spending on day to day basis wont really hurt you out and most of bettors would really just simply treat it on spending some on their cigarrete
on daily consumption on which  it wont really be that something waste of money on betting on something which is close to impossible on hitting.

[mu_enrico]

Yea like as many people already commented, there are still lucky winners so there's still hope. It's not like you pay let's say $1 for nothing, but for trying your luck, and a sense of you achieve something from just buying a lottery. If you think from their (people who buy lotteries) perspective, it's the only way to change their fate from poor to rich. Saving $1/week isn't going to get them anywhere, even if they do it every week in their lifetime. So why not spend it for a chance to get rich?

[komisariatku]

Everyone needs a dream, they try their luck and buy hope. They actually know that the possibility of winning is very small but they pay it anyway. By buying the lottery they have hope until the lottery results are announced. Of course they have to buy lottery in small quantities, and make it as fun to make money

The lottery game when viewed from the possibility of winning is indeed very small. This is a mathematical calculation of probability. If you are too serious about playing the lottery then that is very dangerous, the chances of winning are too small, and it is not something that deserves to be taken seriously. Better to buy in small quantities. If you want to take gambling seriously, the lottery is not the right choice in my opinion, it is better to play gambling in games with high probability, in terms of mathematics it becomes more logical

[btc_angela]

Of course you are paying for the “dream” or opportunity. Otherwise people would have to be crazy to play at all. I’ve always said that lotteries are taxes on people who are bad at math, but more honestly they’re for people who have no hope of getting rich through investment knowledge or by building companies, this is their long shot hope at a different life.

Yeah, I think this is what individuals are paying when they buy lottery tickets, it's a "dream" if they hit the jackpot, however the chances are very slim. And there were reports as well that people winning more than once in a lottery, so definitely it's worth a try to buy $1 ticket and see how it's going to be, as they defied the odds.

https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/national/man-wins-10-million-for-a-second-time-playing-the-lottery

A New York man has defied the odds, not once, but twice, by winning the lottery two times.

Juan Hernandez claimed his $10 million top prize Tuesday after playing the New York Lottery's $10 million deluxe scratch-off game, WABC said.

He chose to receive his winnings in a lump sum of $6,510,000.

Usually though those who have won lottery says that they just pick numbers like their birthdays or their kids birthdays.