Lotteries and possibility vs. probability

[khaled0111]

Ordinary people simply ignore the mathematical probability of winning the lottery.  They just simply look at it as a 50:50 chance of winning.

Believe me, even ordinary people (Ike you said) don't think like that since the odds of winning are way far from what you suggested. The odds of winning the lottery are like 0.0....01%
What makes people participate in it it the price of tickets which is negligible compared to the amount to be won.
It's all about greed. Anyone buying a lottery ticket thinks he have a good chance to win and doesn't think of the odds and what his real chances are.

[1714472639]

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[1714472639]

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[lienfaye]

There's high rate of applying for lottery, low rate of winning possibilities and the probability of getting certainty remain unsure because thise applying aren't familiar with wether of the outcome to be positive or not, aleo due to these, there have been low performance and anticipation for lottery as many equally loose interest despite it time consuming aside the fact that the winning chance is low for lottery.

People get carried away with lotteries because they only have to pay a small amount in order to get participated. I don't think many people will even care about the lottery result. They will just put in the money in the lottery and hope they can win a big amount and change their fortune.
In case of no win, they will just move on without complaining, because people who participate in lotteries already know the probability of winning is very low.

Since the amount to buy a single ticket is low, it's not a big deal for many players. They can move on easily without having regrets on why they spend it to buy ticket because the jackpot prize is quite huge, it's worth it if ever. Although the chance is very slim and almost impossible, this doesn't stop the people to participate.

Moreover you don't have to possess a certain skill, anyone can join and you can buy as many tickets as you want to increase your chance though it's not really proven. Because even you only have one ticket but got lucky then it's really meant for you.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

That is exactly how often I play too! I think that this is because we share the same culture, being as we are both from Spain, and we are from the same demographic segment (male/middle class/similar age).

In fact, here we have the habit of playing Christmas lottery, which costs 20€ a ticket (probability is still small but not as much as in the lotteries mentioned in the OP), and it is a long time that I prefer to save this money and spend it throughout the year, so I maintain the hope for a much longer period.

Btw, have you seen this lottery simulator?

https://www.cuandomevaatocar.com/

You can run simulations with various types of lotteries and set it to high speed. So, for example, you can choose the Euromillions, which you buy twice a week, you hit it and it will give you the results in seconds, which would take weeks to happen. As you can see, what happens is that when someone wins something, which is normally a refund or a small prize in the first stages, they have already spent more on the lottery than what they win.

Regarding the Christmas lottery, there is, apart from tradition, one more factor, that it is very typical in workplaces, associations and other groups to buy one and the same number for everybody or shares. Many people, even if they don't like the lottery, end up buying the Christmas lottery at work because they don't want to be the only one in the office who looks like an asshole if the lottery comes up and they are the only one who hasn't bought the number. That's FOMO applied to this.

[Haunebu]

Lotteries are overhyped and exaggerated if you ask me. It is true that you need to invest very little in order to try and change your life drastically, but those little amounts add up to something big if you get addicted to them.

It's way better to invest in betting accumulators instead where the odds are similar, but skill actually helps instead of completely relying on luck. Some sites offer bonuses too on these accas making them far more appealing.

I advise investing in lotteries only now and then due to the entertainment factor primarily.

[Mr. Magkaisa]

There's high rate of applying for lottery, low rate of winning possibilities and the probability of getting certainty remain unsure because thise applying aren't familiar with wether of the outcome to be positive or not, aleo due to these, there have been low performance and anticipation for lottery as many equally loose interest despite it time consuming aside the fact that the winning chance is low for lottery.

People get carried away with lotteries because they only have to pay a small amount in order to get participated. I don't think many people will even care about the lottery result. They will just put in the money in the lottery and hope they can win a big amount and change their fortune.
In case of no win, they will just move on without complaining, because people who participate in lotteries already know the probability of winning is very low.

Since the amount to buy a single ticket is low, it's not a big deal for many players. They can move on easily without having regrets on why they spend it to buy ticket because the jackpot prize is quite huge, it's worth it if ever. Although the chance is very slim and almost impossible, this doesn't stop the people to participate.

Moreover you don't have to possess a certain skill, anyone can join and you can buy as many tickets as you want to increase your chance though it's not really proven. Because even you only have one ticket but got lucky then it's really meant for you.

     -  Here in our country, million populations are Lotto bettors, and most of them have only one goal and that is to win and become a millionaire, almost most of them rely on luck, the others have been betting on the lotto for years and decades but rarely win the lottery.

If we sum up the total, the payment given is a lot at the amount of 0.35$ per ticket. So the bettor will not think that he has to use the skills lottery, of course there is no such thing, instead he even prays that they will win.

[TheUltraElite]

Humans like to believe in supernatural ways of winning defying the math involved and thus their greed and the addictive buying of lottery tickets as seen with many people.

I think if we can keep the taxation issue aside and be completely selfish - then buying a lottery ticket in enough number to be able to get the winning ticket is a loss in total. We are interested on our own gains instead of taxation, so if that itself is a loss, why buy the ticket at all? a chance of less than 0.0001% is practically equal to no chance at all - this should go in straight in everyone's brains.

[crwth]

I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

Can you point out to what essay that could be OP?


I know that there are a lot of people who are hoping to win the lottery and they are always buying tickets for their satisfaction. I personally know a friend whose mom is an addict and you could see that in the lottery sheet that you have. It's really a lot and I'm not sure why she is keeping it. It's basically trash at that point.

What she doesn't realize is that she is just wasting money on that hope but it's her choice.

[avp2306]

Humans like to believe in supernatural ways of winning defying the math involved and thus their greed and the addictive buying of lottery tickets as seen with many people.

I think if we can keep the taxation issue aside and be completely selfish - then buying a lottery ticket in enough number to be able to get the winning ticket is a loss in total. We are interested on our own gains instead of taxation, so if that itself is a loss, why buy the ticket at all? a chance of less than 0.0001% is practically equal to no chance at all - this should go in straight in everyone's brains.

Having a belief that there's some rituals or any superstitious belief that can help them increase there chances of winning is not wrong. If that can make them feel at ease or even comfortable while betting then let it be. Since in every country we have different traditions so expect that there will be a crazy suggestions about such thing we can read somewhere.

Also even the chance is low there are people still bet just for excitement since its really fun if you have something to wait especially in draw time. But what we should not do is to exceed especially with our expectation upon buying some tickets and we should not do panic buying to think that we can hit the possible winning numbers if we buy a lot of tickets since its a bad decision to take.

[Porfirii]

<...>

Btw, have you seen this lottery simulator?

https://www.cuandomevaatocar.com/

-snip-

LOL! this is great I simulated 25 years and lost 5.000€.

Not that I'll stop playing lottery because of that, but that tool can help a lot to manage expectations, since many people has trouble with abstract numbers, but anyone understands the simulation when displayed.

Regarding the Christmas lottery, there is, apart from tradition, one more factor, that it is very typical in workplaces, associations and other groups to buy one and the same number for everybody or shares. Many people, even if they don't like the lottery, end up buying the Christmas lottery at work because they don't want to be the only one in the office who looks like an asshole if the lottery comes up and they are the only one who hasn't bought the number. That's FOMO applied to this.

Yes, but... it's a trap!

I personally try to resist that feeling, but I have to confess that I'm not always capable

But, when I do, I don't feel worse. I assume that December 22 will be a day just like any other and that's all.

I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

Can you point out to what essay that could be OP?

-snip-

Hey! thanks for asking, everybody is throwing his own opinion here (as expected, because I made a direct question in the OP) but nobody asked for the source of info that led to this topic, and I think that everybody should read about it before making his own conclusions.

You can read this article in Medium which is a great summary (much better than my post) and, if you are still curious after reading it and want to go deeper into the subject, the book Thinking, Fast and Slow.

[CarnagexD]

I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

Probability deals with the calculable outcome of one scenario happening over another. And that uncertainty is where the excitement comes from. The happening or the experience of winning is one of those possibilities. And the truth is, many people are more than willing to pay for that possibility of one big win in the lottery even if the outcome is not in their favor with a probability of 0.000003%.

People are willing to pay for that possibility. Because they know that even with less than a percent, it is still possible for them to win. So let those who want to be a participant of the lottery and not do the systematically 1 USD of annual taxes.

[o48o]

Btw, have you seen this lottery simulator?

https://www.cuandomevaatocar.com/

You can run simulations with various types of lotteries and set it to high speed. So, for example, you can choose the Euromillions, which you buy twice a week, you hit it and it will give you the results in seconds, which would take weeks to happen. As you can see, what happens is that when someone wins something, which is normally a refund or a small prize in the first stages, they have already spent more on the lottery than what they win.

Regarding the Christmas lottery, there is, apart from tradition, one more factor, that it is very typical in workplaces, associations and other groups to buy one and the same number for everybody or shares. Many people, even if they don't like the lottery, end up buying the Christmas lottery at work because they don't want to be the only one in the office who looks like an asshole if the lottery comes up and they are the only one who hasn't bought the number. That's FOMO applied to this.

This should be mandatory check for people who have a lottery addiction. I tried this with powerball and it's a rude awakening when you realize that no matter how many lifetimes you play you most likely have negative saldo.

This also made me put some perspective to the fact that EVERYONE playing rest of their lives will most likely face the same result. Oddly that gives me the slight sense of how big numbers we are talking about. And even when i understand that i won't be winning any lotteries in my lifetime, it's still fun to picture what i would do with the lottery money And that makes me want to buy the ticket.

[crwth]

Hey! thanks for asking, everybody is throwing his own opinion here (as expected, because I made a direct question in the OP) but nobody asked for the source of info that led to this topic, and I think that everybody should read about it before making his own conclusions.

I'm really interested in it what could make you think about it? Upon reading it it's based on Daniel Kahneman's book, Thinking Fast and Slow. I have read it and I do remember some key points that it has.

I like how the author applied the risk effect and how it makes us think about the risk we are facing. It's definitely about framing it as well as how it is presented to us and how we are going to approach a certain "possibility" not knowing the real probability.

It's one of the reasons definitely why Insurance and lotteries exist lol.

[Docnaster]

Humans like to believe in supernatural ways of winning defying the math involved and thus their greed and the addictive buying of lottery tickets as seen with many people.

Humans believe in lucky even when it doesn't exist. I don't think that there is anything that has happened purely by luck.
So many people buying lottery tickets doesn't know that there are some arithmetic and algorithm that has been programmed greatly against them.
The idea has been, if Mr Tom can win, I can also win.
If there is only 2 winners in every million, I will be one of those two persons.
We are most times insensitive of these things as we approach everything from the front end and forgetting that the backend controls the front end.

[tbct_mt2]

LOL! this is great I simulated 25 years and lost 5.000€.

Not that I'll stop playing lottery because of that, but that tool can help a lot to manage expectations, since many people has trouble with abstract numbers, but anyone understands the simulation when displayed.

It is funny but result from your example simulation explains why lottery companies get rich easily. Only their customers get poorer but they keep up buying lottery tickets because they have belief that they will become billionaire if they win a lottery someday.

Won prize is actually awarded to winner but we must know even paying huge award, lottery companies are still rich with income from many other lottery tickets which end with no reward for their customers

[bitbollo]

Btw, have you seen this lottery simulator?

https://www.cuandomevaatocar.com/
...

thanks for share. this is a great resource to be used with people that "believe to beat the house in lotteries".

in Italy there is a proverb that says "the lottery is the tax of stupid".
I personally never play and from memory I don't think I've ever played more than 1 euro.
achieve a win is practically impossible, and each win (even minor) is promoted on all mainstream channels, but all money wasted on these games are of course forgotten and never mentioned....

[Eureka_07]

<snip>

I'm trying to remember... is it a city or country in Europe where almost all of the inhabitants, except one person, won the jackpot lottery? I can't remember the specific country, but I remember watching a video about it.

This "game" relies heavily on extreme luck, and in the end, the real winner is the company running the lottery. People participate in this type of game hoping to change their fortune, but the odds are incredibly low. If you happen to be extremely lucky, you might be chosen as a winner too. However, the chances are slim.

Personally, I made the decision long ago not to participate in national jackpot lotteries, and I still hold that stance.

[AbuBhakar]

LOL! this is great I simulated 25 years and lost 5.000€.

Not that I'll stop playing lottery because of that, but that tool can help a lot to manage expectations, since many people has trouble with abstract numbers, but anyone understands the simulation when displayed.

It is funny but result from your example simulation explains why lottery companies get rich easily. Only their customers get poorer but they keep up buying lottery tickets because they have belief that they will become billionaire if they win a lottery someday.

Won prize is actually awarded to winner but we must know even paying huge award, lottery companies are still rich with income from many other lottery tickets which end with no reward for their customers

Its weird to see that there’s a private company behind lottery since the lottery system here in my country is only controlled by the government and the profit is being used for charity works such as donations on hospital and people with disabilities. Its a gambling for cause here so people doesn’t bother much on where the profit goes.

Customers has a choice to play or not. I think we shouldn’t blame companies for having this kimd of advantage for their business because people choose to bet despite the odds is.

[danadc]

Humans like to believe in supernatural ways of winning defying the math involved and thus their greed and the addictive buying of lottery tickets as seen with many people.

I think if we can keep the taxation issue aside and be completely selfish - then buying a lottery ticket in enough number to be able to get the winning ticket is a loss in total. We are interested on our own gains instead of taxation, so if that itself is a loss, why buy the ticket at all? a chance of less than 0.0001% is practically equal to no chance at all - this should go in straight in everyone's brains.

Having a belief that there's some rituals or any superstitious belief that can help them increase there chances of winning is not wrong. If that can make them feel at ease or even comfortable while betting then let it be. Since in every country we have different traditions so expect that there will be a crazy suggestions about such thing we can read somewhere.

Also even the chance is low there are people still bet just for excitement since its really fun if you have something to wait especially in draw time. But what we should not do is to exceed especially with our expectation upon buying some tickets and we should not do panic buying to think that we can hit the possible winning numbers if we buy a lot of tickets since its a bad decision to take.

I apply something very relaxed, when I buy a ticket for a lottery or a raffle, at first when I'm buying it I get excited, but then when I think that there are so many chances of losing that it doesn't make sense to get your hopes up, because if you lose we will feel more bad, that is why I apply the most reliable, which is to be calm, and not think about that lottery or that loggery anymore, because anxiety occurs and that feeling is not good, it can also produce stress and the brain Human is very emphatic, it can cause so much emotion that it can make it hard to sleep or do any activity, it is better to have a good mental health

[slapper]

Humans like to believe in supernatural ways of winning defying the math involved and thus their greed and the addictive buying of lottery tickets as seen with many people.

I think if we can keep the taxation issue aside and be completely selfish - then buying a lottery ticket in enough number to be able to get the winning ticket is a loss in total. We are interested on our own gains instead of taxation, so if that itself is a loss, why buy the ticket at all? a chance of less than 0.0001% is practically equal to no chance at all - this should go in straight in everyone's brains.

Having a belief that there's some rituals or any superstitious belief that can help them increase there chances of winning is not wrong. If that can make them feel at ease or even comfortable while betting then let it be. Since in every country we have different traditions so expect that there will be a crazy suggestions about such thing we can read somewhere.

Also even the chance is low there are people still bet just for excitement since its really fun if you have something to wait especially in draw time. But what we should not do is to exceed especially with our expectation upon buying some tickets and we should not do panic buying to think that we can hit the possible winning numbers if we buy a lot of tickets since its a bad decision to take.

Rituals and superstitions adding a dash of allure to gambling isn't uncommon. However, they provide solace rather than altering luck. Remember, gambling is dictated by randomness and odds, not mystical forces.

The adrenaline surge during a bet, the climax as results teeter, are undoubtedly emotional high points. Yet, the thrill should not be confused with an assurance of gains. Bear in mind, losses are more prevalent in gambling than wins.

Finally, the belief that owning more tickets elevates the likelihood of winning is misleading. This can prompt careless choices and a false sense of command. Each gamble is a distinct event; more tickets don't tilt the odds. Stay grounded and rational in your choices.

[khaled0111]

Finally, the belief that owning more tickets elevates the likelihood of winning is misleading. This can prompt careless choices and a false sense of command. Each gamble is a distinct event; more tickets don't tilt the odds. Stay grounded and rational in your choices.

I agree with all you have said except the point I have quoted above. Mathematically/statistically speaking, the more tickets you have the more your chances of winning are. I'll give an example: let's assume there are only three tickets available and one of them is the winning one. You bought two and I bought the remaining one. Your chance of wining / odds is 2/3 or 66.66% while my odds of winning are 1/3 or 33.33%. Therefore, the more tickets you have the more you are likely to win.
By buying more tickets you are improving your chances of winning.