rpietila Altcoin Observer

[smooth]

Bandwidth scales slower than Moore's law but is not in danger of ending:

http://www.nngroup.com/articles/law-of-bandwidth/

Neither can scale fast enough so XMR to reach 10 million users in 3 years, because XMR would need to scale 10^3 in 3 years.

This doesn't follow because it would assume that XMR is currently maxed out on bandwidth or Moore's Law considerations, which is false.

Terabit bandwidth will be available to fixed locations in that time-frame.  Mobile bandwidth isn't really an issue, because thin clients will be used for mobile, exclusively, for the foreseeable future.  I just don't see bandwidth as an issue for XMR, ever.  For some users, always, but for network strength and integrity, as well as capacity?  No.  Lower consumption would aid in decentralization, but unless your hard requirement is to maximize decentralization (as I suspect it is for AnonyMint) it's not a problem.

I mis-spoke when I suggested flash was necessary to the blockchain.  Magnetic storage is quite cheap and adequate for full nodes, and will already scale 10^3.

Even if his requirement is for maximized decentralization his argument is still false. PCs are not maxed out on XMR today. Even some smartphones could almost certainly run XMR today fairly well. (I'm running it on a nettop that is smartphone-class, and it is nowhere near maxed out.)

That is because as far I know you are not close to maximizing transactions (and Peter R showed that market cap is correlated to the square of an increase in a proxy for txs as a proxy for user adoption), and as far as I know in fact proactively discouraged them recently by raising tx fees to deal with a DoS attack. The paradigm appears to be broken to me.

I'm not sure in what sense you mean "maximizing transactions." Yes there is an observed correlation, but I don't believe that increasing junk transactions would in and of itself increase market cap.

As far as the recent fee increase, that is rather interesting (not sure whether relevant to your point or not, assuming you have one). By increasing the fee by a factor of 20 we decreased transactions by about 28% (ignoring the period of obvious abuse) as can be viewed here: http://monerochain.info/charts/transactions

I'm not sure whether this elasticity has been measured before, and I have no interpretation to offer. Just putting it out there.

There will be another interesting experiment when we change the fees to per-kb.

[1714958494]

1714958494

[1714958494]

1714958494

[1714958494]

1714958494

[1714958494]

1714958494

[1714958494]

1714958494

[AnonyMint]

I'm not sure in what sense you mean "maximizing transactions."

I mean it from many different scopes, even including how to get the coin into spenders' hands at wide scale.

Yes there is an observed correlation, but I don't believe that increasing junk transactions would in and of itself increase market cap.

I agree normally I don't think it would because DoS has a cost and stopping DoS has a cost too.

As far as the recent fee increase, that is rather interesting (not sure whether relevant to your point or not, assuming you have one). By increasing the fee by a factor of 20 we decreased transactions by about 28% (ignoring the period of obvious abuse) as can be viewed here: http://monerochain.info/charts/transactions

Interesting to see some quantification of the costs involved. Thanks for sharing.

Edit: 20X increase may only be impacting smallerlower value transactions if it is a nominal and not a percentage tx fee? I assume it must be nominal otherwise very small tx amounts become a form of bloat DoS.

[NewLiberty]

I'm not sure in what sense you mean "maximizing transactions."

I mean it from many different scopes, even including how to get the coin into spenders' hands at wide scale.

Yes there is an observed correlation, but I don't believe that increasing junk transactions would in and of itself increase market cap.

I agree normally I don't think it would because DoS has a cost and stopping DoS has a cost too.

As far as the recent fee increase, that is rather interesting (not sure whether relevant to your point or not, assuming you have one). By increasing the fee by a factor of 20 we decreased transactions by about 28% (ignoring the period of obvious abuse) as can be viewed here: http://monerochain.info/charts/transactions

Interesting to see some quantification of the costs involved. Thanks for sharing.

An ideal case would be one that can handle as many transactions as there are clicks on the internet.
The perfect is the enemy of the good.
That folks are striving for perfection is encouraging.

Its been well over a hundred years from the first electric vehicles to the Teslas of today, but folks still had to get from place to place.  We'll have to make do with our imperfections until we get there.

[smooth]

Edit: 20X increase may only be impacting smaller transactions if it is a nominal and not a percentage tx fee? I assume it must be nominal otherwise very small tx amounts become a form of bloat DoS.

It is not a percentage fee. The model is cost recovery, not commission, and the costs are primarily per-kb, although some costs are per-tx (and per-other) for processing, etc. So yes it should have the greatest impact on smaller tx. I suspect people are aggregating more and being a bit more cautious about initiating transactions.

[AnonyMint]

Edit: 20X increase may only be impacting smaller transactions if it is a nominal and not a percentage tx fee? I assume it must be nominal otherwise very small tx amounts become a form of bloat DoS.

It is not a percentage fee. The model is cost recovery, not commission, and the costs are primarily per-kb, although some costs are per-tx (and per-other) for processing, etc. So yes it should have the greatest impact on smaller tx. I suspect people are aggregating more and being a bit more cautious about initiating transactions.

Thanks again for sharing. I hope you all are rewarded for your efforts.

[smooth]

Any other ideas of how to scale a crypto-currency to beyond 10 million users within 3 years or less from launch?

Build it into a game that becomes a massive hit. Unfortunately I don't know any way to engineer a game that is a massive hit. They all seem to be black swans. Most often designers of very successful games who try to repeat their success fail and end up being one hit wonders. Maybe that is not universal though, I'm not sure.

Installments of an already-successful franchise can get wide distribution but you will need to pay for that, so it comes back to advertising (a form of product placement in this case).

[iCEBREAKER]

Damn, they are forbidding me from posting again. Bye.

I take some comfort in knowing that your loved ones are looking out for you.

Heh, the Martyr Complex is quite strong in this one. 

I think the reasoning goes something like this:

Prophets are always persecuted, genius is always misunderstood.  AM is a genius and a prophet, so he is both persecuted and misunderstood.

Oh, poor little him!  How the cryptosphere weeps!  Even Master Satoshi, ascendent in exulted Bit-Valhalla, sheds a tear...   

[AnonyMint]

Any other ideas of how to scale a crypto-currency to beyond 10 million users within 3 years or less from launch?

Build it into a game that becomes a massive hit.

Note 'game' has a wider scope of context than what you might be thinking. For example, life is game.

Oh, poor little him!

Continue your fantasies please.

Sometimes I think out-of-the-box. I don't claim to be a genius. I have a reasonably high IQ (probably not as high as aminorex on standardized tests) and some different approaches. Linus Torvalds probably doesn't have as high an IQ as Eric Raymond (clearly evident by reading their respective blogs), but Linus has a skill set of being able to contain the complexity of large projects which Eric may not possess (Eric wrote this).

This is embarrassing for me and the best way for me to depersonalize this discussion is for me to stop speaking. Because I have very strong opinions.

Sorry for rocking the boat. I guess I don't know how to not speak my mind.

Edit: I had sent PMs twice to Hal telling about the treatments I am trying, because my autoimmunity and his ALS may share the autoimmunity issue. I don't know if he ever read them, and I may have been too late. Perhaps a quote from him is apropos.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2f1ijk/hal_finney_was_bitcoins_first_follower_when_you/

"When you find a lone nut doing something great, have the guts to be the first person to stand up and join in."

Watch the video!

[blaaaaacksuit]

Damn, they are forbidding me from posting again. Bye.

I take some comfort in knowing that your loved ones are looking out for you.

Heh, the Martyr Complex is quite strong in this one. 

I think the reasoning goes something like this:

Prophets are always persecuted, genius is always misunderstood.  AM is a genius and a prophet, so he is both persecuted and misunderstood.

Oh, poor little him!  How the cryptosphere weeps!  Even Master Satoshi, ascendent in exulted Bit-Valhalla, sheds a tear...   

Anonymint is definitely a strange bird but be nice to him!  I enjoy reading his posts, some are very educational.

[iCEBREAKER]

Damn, they are forbidding me from posting again. Bye.

I take some comfort in knowing that your loved ones are looking out for you.

Heh, the Martyr Complex is quite strong in this one. 

I think the reasoning goes something like this:

Prophets are always persecuted, genius is always misunderstood.  AM is a genius and a prophet, so he is both persecuted and misunderstood.

Oh, poor little him!  How the cryptosphere weeps!  Even Master Satoshi, ascendent in exulted Bit-Valhalla, sheds a tear...   

Anonymint is definitely a strange bird but be nice to him!  I enjoy reading his posts, some are very educational.

I like "some" of AM's posts too.  That's why *I am* being nice to him.  My friendly banter provided a platform to discuss himself, a favorite activity, with relish.

aminorex was being mean, so I diffused the conflict with some humor.   

[AnonyMint]

I like "some" of AM's posts too.  That's why *I am* being nice to him.  My friendly banter provided a platform to discuss himself, a favorite activity, with relish.

aminorex was being mean, so I diffused the conflict with some humor.  

I ignored your first post, because it is embarrassing if personalizing the meritorious discussion.

Mea culpa on using the word "joke". My idealism is driving me too hard. Also I feel competitive when rpietila writes smugly that he thinks he found the perfect solutions already which was the catalyst for this recent set of posts from me after a hiatus.

Bitcoin is mature in age six but hasn't even reached the scale friendster attained in its first year or two.

[blaaaaacksuit]

XMR ... 10 million users in 3 years...

But doesn't Bitcoin only have around 1million users atm after 5 years?

I think a rolling window of active users is a better reference on this.  XMR is growing much faster than BTC.  I expect it to overtake BTC in 3 years.

 Being this high...

Still hope you're right though!  

[iCEBREAKER]

Mea culpa on using the word "joke". My idealism is driving me too hard. Also I feel competitive when rpietila writes smugly that he thinks he found the perfect solutions already which was the catalyst for this recent set of posts from me after a hiatus.

Bitcon, Monero, and Cryptonite don't need to be perfect, they only need to offer a comparative advantage over fiat and the other altcoins; Gresham will do the rest.  I'm no utilitarian, but marginalism is an undeniably useful tool.

Let RP be smug, the guy is Lord of Monero Manor.  Being a Debbie Downer when he preens is unflattering, and makes you look like a player hater.

I don't get any such haughty vibes from his posts at all, but that's probably because I'd be a trillion times more insufferable given thousands of BTC and a castle.  Especially when holding court in the wine cellar's dining room/library...   

[jabo38]

Any other ideas of how to scale a crypto-currency to beyond 10 million users within 3 years or less from launch?

Build it into a game that becomes a massive hit. Unfortunately I don't know any way to engineer a game that is a massive hit. They all seem to be black swans. Most often designers of very successful games who try to repeat their success fail and end up being one hit wonders. Maybe that is not universal though, I'm not sure.

Installments of an already-successful franchise can get wide distribution but you will need to pay for that, so it comes back to advertising (a form of product placement in this case).

Have it stamped official by a government.

Have it backed by a major corporation. Like for instance any major fast food or coffee retailer.  Possibly an industry as a whole.

Get a celebrity or team of celebrities to not only endorse but actively promote.

In all of these options killer one click apps for phones and computers are a must.

[smooth]

Any other ideas of how to scale a crypto-currency to beyond 10 million users within 3 years or less from launch?

Build it into a game that becomes a massive hit. Unfortunately I don't know any way to engineer a game that is a massive hit. They all seem to be black swans. Most often designers of very successful games who try to repeat their success fail and end up being one hit wonders. Maybe that is not universal though, I'm not sure.

Installments of an already-successful franchise can get wide distribution but you will need to pay for that, so it comes back to advertising (a form of product placement in this case).

Have it stamped official by a government.

That might work, depending on the government. Official approval by Tuvalu might not do much (though it arguably could).

Have it backed by a major corporation. Like for instance any major fast food or coffee retailer.  Possibly an industry as a whole.

Get a celebrity or team of celebrities to not only endorse but actively promote.

In all of these options killer one click apps for phones and computers are a must.

These all come down to advertising really, unless the celebrity happened to take a personal interest and made it into a hit for whatever black swan sort of reason. But celebrities are so managed and used as promotional tools these days that almost everything they do seems to be some sort of product placement deal.

[blaaaaacksuit]

Any other ideas of how to scale a crypto-currency to beyond 10 million users within 3 years or less from launch?

Build it into a game that becomes a massive hit. Unfortunately I don't know any way to engineer a game that is a massive hit. They all seem to be black swans. Most often designers of very successful games who try to repeat their success fail and end up being one hit wonders. Maybe that is not universal though, I'm not sure.

Installments of an already-successful franchise can get wide distribution but you will need to pay for that, so it comes back to advertising (a form of product placement in this case).

Have it stamped official by a government.

Have it backed by a major corporation. Like for instance any major fast food or coffee retailer.  Possibly an industry as a whole.

Get a celebrity or team of celebrities to not only endorse but actively promote.

In all of these options killer one click apps for phones and computers are a must.

Ease of purchase online and in the real world.  No waiting 4 days for approval or whatever, no finger print scanning, dna verification, rectal examinations or selling souls to malevolent entities. 

[AnonyMint]

One way to make something popular is to offer something that people ogle and get jealous if others have it and they don't.

Humans hate to miss the party. Humans are social. This is the game of life.

I suspect the reason my CoolPage reached 300,000 to a million users in the first 3 years (multiply by 10 in today's internet), was because people visiting the websites created with it, saw the little sky blue background with golden font advertising button that was on every page that used the free version. At the time (1998 to 2001), possessing a custom designed webpage on Yahoo Geocities was a status symbol of being really cool and hip with the new technologies. And we offered them "drag + drop creation and one click publishing". Later 100s of editors followed suit but we were (ahem "I" the one-man company was) one of the first to offer that in 1998 in an ad-button supported freeware download. And I put a lot of effort into making the GUI really user friendly and even added point-and-click DHTML programming GUI. Technically CoolPage sucked. I was so embarrassed I stopped developing it. I made a lot of mistakes as I was younger and still gaining experience.



The filipino artist modeled the Cool Page surfer dude on me, lol. But I designed the blue button and the custom font for CoolPage.


Edit: I wrote upthread that anonymity could be unwound for ring signatures if authorities can require you to reveal your private keys (a.k.a. passwords), i.e. allow you to have privacy to the public but not to the government. Astute readers surely smugly ignored me thinking that if the authorities already know your identity in order to require your passwords, then you don't have anonymity. Well this unstated rebuttal falls apart on several levels. One as I said, you revealing your password lowers the anonymity set for those who didn't reveal. Secondly, you may wish to report for tax purposes some funds you bring from the non-reported anonymous world back into the mainstream fiat world, so then the authorities may require you reveal your passwords so they can verify the tax basis you claim for your capital gains. As you know the rulings for example in the USA is that mining is income and the tax basis for capital gains starts at the time of the coinbase transaction.

[iourzzz]

One way to make something popular is to offer something that people ogle and get jealous if others have it and they don't.

Humans hate to miss the party. Humans are social. This is the game of life.

I suspect the reason my CoolPage reached 300,000 to a million users in the first 3 years (multiply by 10 in today's internet), was because people visiting the websites created with it, saw the little sky blue background with golden font advertising button that was on every page that used the free version. At the time (1998 to 2001), possessing a custom designed webpage on Yahoo Geocities was a status symbol of being really cool and hip with the new technologies. And we offered them "drag + drop creation and one click publishing". Later 100s of editors followed suit but we were (ahem "I" the one-man company was) one of the first to offer that in 1998 in an ad-button supported freeware download. And I put a lot of effort into making the GUI really user friendly and even added point-and-click DHTML programming GUI. Technically CoolPage sucked. I was so embarrassed I stopped developing it.



The filipino artist modeled the Cool Page surfer dude on me, lol. But I designed the blue button and the custom font for CoolPage.


Edit: I wrote upthread that anonymity could be unwound for ring signatures if authorities can require you to reveal your private keys (a.k.a. passwords), i.e. allow you to have privacy to the public but not to the government. Astute readers surely smugly ignored me thinking that if the authorities already know your identity in order to require your passwords, then you don't have anonymity. Well this unstated rebuttal falls apart on several levels. One as I said, you revealing your password lowers the anonymity set for those who didn't reveal. Secondly, you may wish to report for tax purposes some funds you bring from the non-reported anonymous world back into the mainstream fiat world, so then the authorities may require you reveal your passwords so they can verify the tax basis you claim for your capital gains. As you know the rulings for example in the USA is that mining is income and the tax basis for capital gains starts at the time of the coinbase transaction.

I was too late. Our HTML editor few years later was not successful.

As you remember there are view keys designed to reveal transactions when needed. So the problem of alleged requirements to reveal private keys can be exaggerated.

[rpietila]

what's happening with the Bitcoin price Guyz ?

: |

And, especially, how is it related to the topic of the thread? 

[gjhiggins]

Any other ideas of how to scale a crypto-currency to beyond 10 million users within 3 years or less from launch?

I find it quite distressing to see people flailing around wildly like this. You offer far too vague a problem statement to take seriously at face value, any significant effort to respond would be futile because its substance would simply disappear into the definitional chasms running through your sketchy landscape.

Progress in this area is most unlikely to happen without a lot more informed effort being devoted to characterising the users. The most generous phrase I can find to describe the current effort is "hopelessly amateur". It's generous because the ineptitude is an obvious consequence of the influence of a technical community that openly prides itself on its ignorance of psychology, sociology, semiotics, marketing and other disciplines of the “soft sciences”. If you really can't articulate the details of the key factors underlying Dogecoin's undeniable appeal to users then you shouldn't aspire to hold an opinion on the subject.

If you think that's a bit brutal, I can offer this adapted quote: “You really have no business creating your own cryptocurrency if you don't understand marketing well enough to figure out how to achieve large-scale adoption without somebody else's help.”

A moment's reflection should inform you that each of the cited examples (celeb endorsement, corporate adoption or government takeover) is merely a proxy for “just about anyone with a well-resourced and effective marketing function” (which, you may be astounded to learn, does not equate to “advertising”).

Cheers

Graham