rpietila Altcoin Observer

[iCEBREAKER]

...nation-states to adopt their own digital currencies.

And what does that change? Most developed nations already use digital currency, as most payments are in electronic form. How does this affect crypto currencies though, which are stateless? Care to explain?

He thinks some lulzy computer model, which has achieved self-awareness and gained the gift of prophecy, is foretelling the End Times.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_Bot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerology

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eschatology

Advanced minds like AM's often harbor ^such^ exotic parasitic memes.  In English culture academics are expected to carry on the distinguished tradition of eccentricity.   

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touched_with_Fire

[Skinnkavaj]

Sounds like AnonyMint is a tinfoil hat if he is suggesting that a centralized crypto currency like Equadors state currency, will over take Bitcoin.

[rpietila]

The problem is not economy, it is the perpetrators of injustice.

That's what the Jacobins, the Bolsheviks, the Nazis, the Khmer Rouge, the People's Liberation Army, and ISIL said.
Even winning the revolution does not constitute winning simpliciter.

Exactly. For this reason it is not a proper course of action to hunt down every goon and let their corpses lay unburied.

It is a proper course of action to speak out in the forums, and appear blameless in your own deeds so that they don't harass you, but even if they do, your conscience is pure.

There is currently a disparity of power in that goons can rob me of my property, liberty, and life (and 2 first ones have been tried), whereas I renounce my power to do likewise to them. By so doing I give them time to repent.

[Majormax]

...nation-states to adopt their own digital currencies.

And what does that change? Most developed nations already use digital currency, as most payments are in electronic form. How does this affect crypto currencies though, which are stateless? Care to explain?

Most developed nations already use digiTIZED currency, not digital. Fiat currency poorly adapted for a system in which it is alien.

[SlipperySlope]

Sounds like AnonyMint is a tinfoil hat if he is suggesting that a centralized crypto currency like Equadors state currency, will over take Bitcoin.

Regardless of what AnonyMint actually suggests, I wonder if you have a point with Ecuador.  Suppose, in some possible world differing greatly from reported plans, that Ecuador's Central Bank clones Bitcoin Core and modifies it slightly so that the Central Bank is the sole mint which can mine the digital currency. Furthermore, in this possible world, Ecuador retires its dependence on the US dollar and mandates the new digital currency as legal tender.

In this purely hypothetical scenario, this particular crypto-currency becomes 6x the market capitalization of bitcoin given Ecuador's M2 at $36 billion. All financial institutions performing transactions with Ecuador, e.g. payment card processors, bank wire processors, foreign exchange traders, etc., would all have to modify their respective software systems to accommodate Bitcoin protocol transactions and settlement procedures.

I suggest that in this scenario, Bitcoin is surpassed.

But it is likely according to reports that Ecuador will squander the opportunity as did Canada a while ago. Satoshi created Bitcoin partly because sovereign governments are not trustworthy with respect to debasing their currencies. They effectively keep a portion of M2 growth for themselves or to prop up failing banks.

[Skinnkavaj]

Sounds like AnonyMint is a tinfoil hat if he is suggesting that a centralized crypto currency like Equadors state currency, will over take Bitcoin.

Regardless of what AnonyMint actually suggests, I wonder if you have a point with Ecuador.  Suppose, in some possible world differing greatly from reported plans, that Ecuador's Central Bank clones Bitcoin Core and modifies it slightly so that the Central Bank is the sole mint which can mine the digital currency. Furthermore, in this possible world, Ecuador retires its dependence on the US dollar and mandates the new digital currency as legal tender.

Are you talking about some modified version of Bitcoin that works the same way as Bitcoin but is mined and controlled solely by Equador government?
Who would support that? Do you think any government would want to give up power to Equador?

The government is all about having control, they could run their own Bitcoin and force people to use it. But who would support THAT government? The rest of the world wouldn't care about it and the truth to the Equador people would get out there as long as we have the internet for communication.

In the long term anything that is controlled by one or few people, would not be supported by the rest of the crowd.

[aminorex]

sovereign governments.... effectively keep a portion of M2 growth ... to prop up failing banks.

that is a gross understatement.  the level of wealth transfer is far too intense and difficult to achieve to attribute it to incompetence.  it is an act of consummate competence.  it is "fiat slavery".

[NewLiberty]

Sounds like AnonyMint is a tinfoil hat if he is suggesting that a centralized crypto currency like Equadors state currency, will over take Bitcoin.

Yeah, they need to do something... but don't think this is the best method.  They would be better off with both.  Bitcoin is not a crime.

[AnonyMint]

...nation-states to adopt their own digital currencies.

And what does that change? Most developed nations already use digital currency, as most payments are in electronic form. How does this affect crypto currencies though, which are stateless? Care to explain?

Sounds like AnonyMint is a tinfoil hat if he is suggesting that a centralized crypto currency like Equadors state currency, will over take Bitcoin.

Currently about 6 billion people in the world still use cash. They are the future, because they have:

1. The youth.
2. Not the retirees.
3. Not the debt.
4. Not the massive social system, taxes, and unfunded liabilities.
5. Not the destroyed family unit and reproduction.

What they adopt is what rules the world.

Already in Hong Kong, most everyone swipes a digital card to pay most transactions. I was there in January 2014.

India recently started to move towards adopting a digital currency and digital tagging of all the population.

The model predicts the financial capital of the world will shift to Shanghai and the developing world.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/05/the-shift-from-west-to-the-east/



Now fuck off with your nonsense, ill-informed, Butthurtcoin posts.

The window of opportunity is closing while you all stroke your useless (bankrupt) Caucasian pride.

Butthurtcoin is pushing the nation-states to adopt their own national digital currencies, while Butthurtcoin is scaling too slow to be a ubiquitous replacement. And Butthurtcoin is failing and falling under control of a rich boys club.

The government is all about having control, they could run their own Bitcoin and force people to use it. But who would support THAT government? The rest of the world wouldn't care about it and the truth to the Equador people would get out there as long as we have the internet for communication.

In the long term anything that is controlled by one or few people, would not be supported by the rest of the crowd.

You are so naive. The people in the developing world could give a rats ass about our idealism and problems with bloated socialism. They don't have high taxes, bloated social systems.

They need to get paid to buy food. They will accept payment in what ever they are paid with. They are already adopting oDesk which they can withdraw with their ATM card. The governments will plug their digital currencies into this.

[AnonyMint]

He thinks some lulzy computer model, which has achieved self-awareness and gained the gift of prophecy, is foretelling the End Times.

You are fucking trolling, because I've already explained to you that the model predicted everything exactly 10 years in advance, even to the day.

And the model doesn't predict the end of the world.

And you have a vendetta against me because I criticized the name of your beloved boolberries.

And I don't have time to waste arguing with an idiot who doesn't even bother to check the facts on this matter.

And I told you upthread that it has nothing to do with numerology. So you are just trolling because I already refuted you, then you repeat the same trolling tactic again.

[Tisko]

Someone who has looked into Vericoin (VRC), does it classify as an appcoin or that's not the case? Thanks.

[iCEBREAKER]

He thinks some lulzy computer model, which has achieved self-awareness and gained the gift of prophecy, is foretelling the End Times.

You are fucking trolling, because I've already explained to you that the model predicted everything exactly 10 years in advance, even to the day.

And the model doesn't predict the end of the world.

And you have a vendetta against me because I criticized the name of your beloved boolberries.

And I don't have time to waste arguing with an idiot who doesn't even bother to check the facts on this matter.

And I told you upthread that it has nothing to do with numerology. So you are just trolling because I already refuted you, then you repeat the same trolling tactic again.

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/the-texas-sharpshooter

Many people criticize the name Boolberry; only one talks about psychic computer models and fails to see why others find that lulzy.

As with the Climate Change Cult, such a modeling fetish emulates traditional numerology.  And just by coincidence, both models predict DOOM^tm Soon^tm.

I'm just discussing the zany but aggressive parasitic memes you brought to the thread.  Were I trolling, I'd point out that you mention Armstrong more than cedivad mentions his lawyer.   

[brekyrself]

...

The escrow would auto-close the positions, and could hold some of the aggregate escrowed BTC in the exchange. (Auto-closing would happen in exchange, not OTC). If the auto-close does not happen as expected, the loss would be on the escrow who failed it. They are naturally getting compensated for their service, so it is not an all-lose proposition.

I believe it can be done with mature and liquid coins such as XMR and LTC, quite easily. With volatile coins, the BTC guarantee just needs to be that much higher.

The escrowed XBT are kept in the exchange where a market order to buy XMR is triggered when 115% is reached. If the slippage plus commission is less than 15% then it would work. This also assumes the exchange does not temporarily stop trading as a "circuit breaker" on the market.

Black Monday in stocks, October 19, 1987,  comes to mind here. A sharp fall or rise triggered by a cascade of margin calls. More recently this type of spike has been seen with XBT on BTC-E for the same reason. Some risk to the lender still remains. This risk can be mitigated, but not eliminated entirely.

Yes, you are right. A short (theoretically) has unlimited downside, and it is of course not possible to have unlimited guarantees. This can be mitigated with higher guarantees when the coin has a history or anticipated future of quick upside moves. Also it is possible to just vest some of the risk to the lender, such as a stipulation that if the coin moves up more than 50% in 24 hours, then the excess gains are kept by the service.

It also explains why you are interested in shorting BTSX. After spending time studying the BTSX wiki http://bitshares-x.info/ it becomes clear to me that a sharp drop in the price of BTSX relative to the price weighted average of the secured assets bitUSD, bitXBT. bitEUR, bitXAU, etc. can cause a cascade of margin calls leading to a complete loss of confidence in the BTSX system. Depending on the overall percentage of BTSX that are securing other assets something in the order of a 50% drop could be enough to set off a cascading panic starting like the October 19, 1987 stock market crash only to become far worse. 

There are safety nets in place for prevent this.

Start here:
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=7103.0

There is more however finding all this info is difficult as not all wiki pages etc seem to be updated as the pace this project has progressed.  It's almost necessary to read their forum daily to keep up!

I am not smart enough to understand how that link provides any safety net. To a simple guy like me, a safety net means some sort of insurance or price support,but that page talks about: "The purpose of this guide is to explain how the market peg should behave assuming rational market players looking to earn a profit."

In theory and calm markets, a holographic peg should stay close to where it was seeded, especially if there are financial incentives that maximize the probability of the price trading near the peg.

Now, what I have been asking is what happens in an "irrational" market? When the panic selling sets in? It is called panic selling, not "rational selling". With stock market crash what changed was the market's valuation of the estimated future cashflows discounted to present values,right? So changes in interest rates, outlook of economy, etc. play a factor, but ultimately the shares represented a future dividend flow (or at least compounded equity value from (presumably) profitable companies.

This I believe sets a floor for stock market equities. At some point the price becomes lower than the likely future cashflows and value investor move in.

Since btsx has no such future cash flows, there is no floor.
Since the holographic peg is only as good as the belief in it, as soon as we get close to 50% loss from ATH a cascade of selling will happen and once the volume of selling is bigger than what btsx corp can prop up, what will stop this cascade from going all the way down to where the btsx company is willing to just buy it up?

The more btsx succeeds, it seems the more likely it is to fail and at a larger and larger scale and will be big black mark for crypto overall. That is my concern

James

James

See if this explanation helps at all posted today from Bytemaster.

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8358.msg108937#msg108937

[AnonyMint]

The problem is not economy, it is the perpetrators of injustice.

That's what the Jacobins, the Bolsheviks, the Nazis, the Khmer Rouge, the People's Liberation Army, and ISIL said.
Even winning the revolution does not constitute winning simpliciter.

Exactly. For this reason it is not a proper course of action to hunt down every goon and let their corpses lay unburied.

It is a proper course of action to speak out in the forums, and appear blameless in your own deeds so that they don't harass you, but even if they do, your conscience is pure.

There is currently a disparity of power in that goons can rob me of my property, liberty, and life (and 2 first ones have been tried), whereas I renounce my power to do likewise to them. By so doing I give them time to repent.

Those righteous actions are mostly useless and orthogonal to developing technology frontiers. Without such frontiers, the cancer will drag us back into another 600 year Dark Age.

I understand your view as a Christian not to fret, etc., but I am talking about the non-spirtual reality. To become lazy and non-productive and to waste the massive capital that has been entrusted to you in non-productive Bitcoin vaults is the crime of the Parable of the Talents.

In your defense, I don't think you are capable of doing more, as you aren't a programmer and you rely on the "gentleman's club" approach to evaluating what to support. And you expect everything to come to you on your terms (even refusing to run Bitmessage so that you could be privy to everything). You are really a trader and not a venture capitalist. You are out of your element as a venture capitalist.

But it is okay, because you aren't the only whale. And you have helped me with 2 BTC. Thank you. I hope I prove to be worthy.

[AnonyMint]

only one talks about psychic computer models and fails to see why others find that lulzy.

As with the Climate Change Cult, such a modeling fetish emulates traditional numerology.

Your illogic (associating AGW fraud with Armstrong's model): your foot hurts and you have to pee. Thus hurt feet causes peeing.

I told you upthread it is a model that has been trained on $100 million of data. It has identified all the repeating cycles in the history of man. It has been backtested and now also extensively predictively tested.

It has nothing in common with the nonsense climate models, which Armstrong explicitly criticizes because those climate models use only near-term data and totally ignore historical cycles that have a longer period than the short-term data they employed.

If you are not even going to take the time to investigate, then shut up because you are making a fool of yourself.

I watched him predict the decline in gold to $1150, the Ukraine hotspot, and the rise of the USA stock markets (to double at least from 2012), which he publicly revealed as predictions back in 2011 (and his computer model was predicting these events long before he revealed them to us). I have also gone back into the archives and verified that his model predicted every major economic event since the 1980s and did it years in advance. And often the event was predicted to the day.

The universe is composed of cycles. The sun rises and it sets. Humans are born, make children, get old, die. I have also explored the physics and math for why the universe MUST be composed of cycles:

http://unheresy.com/The%20Universe.html#Matter_as_a_continuum

Armstrong has gone beyond that theoretical abstraction and invested the money and effort that no one else in the world did to collect the data of the history of the world. He even for example was one of the top collectors of ancient coins and artifacts so he could for example build an accurate silver chart for the Roman empire (apparently something no one else had ever done).

[iCEBREAKER]

only one talks about psychic computer models and fails to see why others find that lulzy.

As with the Climate Change Cult, such a modeling fetish emulates traditional numerology.

Logic: your foot hurts and you have to pee. Thus hurt feet causes peeing.

I told you upthread it is a model that has been trained on $100 million of data. It has identified all the repeating cycles in the history of man. It has been backtested and now also extensively predictively tested.

It has nothing in common with the nonsense climate models, which Armstrong explicits criticizes because those climate models use only near-term data and totally ignore historical cycles that have a longer period than the short-term data they employed.

If you are not even going to take the time to investigate, then shut up because you are making a fool of yourself.

Wow, 100 million is a very big, powerful number of dollars.     How could it possibly fail to predict at least a few things, once in a while?  Maybe I should "take the time to investigate" Nostradamus as well, after all he predicted WW2, the JFK assassination, and 9/11.

/numerology
/sharpshooter fallacy

[AnonyMint]

only one talks about psychic computer models and fails to see why others find that lulzy.

As with the Climate Change Cult, such a modeling fetish emulates traditional numerology.

Logic: your foot hurts and you have to pee. Thus hurt feet causes peeing.

I told you upthread it is a model that has been trained on $100 million of data. It has identified all the repeating cycles in the history of man. It has been backtested and now also extensively predictively tested.

It has nothing in common with the nonsense climate models, which Armstrong explicits criticizes because those climate models use only near-term data and totally ignore historical cycles that have a longer period than the short-term data they employed.

If you are not even going to take the time to investigate, then shut up because you are making a fool of yourself.

Wow, 100 million is a very big, powerful number of dollars.    How could it possibly fail to predict at least a few things, once in a while?  Maybe I should "take the time to investigate" Nostradamus as well, after all he predicted WW2, the JFK assassination, and 9/11.

/numerology
/sharpshooter fallacy

You are such an idiot.

You have massive category errors.

Nostradamus did not specifically predict those events. You can take some vague pronouncements or numerology and fit it to numerous possible events.

Whereas, Armstrong made specific predictions of specific events at specific times, that could not match any other events. And he was never wrong about long-term predictions. Never. In fact, he has made the point that the longer-term the prediction, the more certain it is.

You are going to need to recalibrate your mind to the reality of what is possible.

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic-- Arthur C. Clarke.

[Este Nuno]

Can we get back to talking about AnonyMint's idea of government backed digital currencies? It's something that seems inevitable but everyone seems to conveniently ignore.

Imagine the efficiency of tax collecting through a database of currency you control. It's the government's ultimate weapon.

[AnonyMint]

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8358.msg108937#msg108937

1) 51 delegates or more must publish a price feed at least once per day
     - if they do not publish the feed, then the market reverts to a 1hr moving average.
     - if a feed is published, the 1hr moving average is set to the feed.

James (with his multi-gateway exchange) and bytemaster (with this BitUSD peg) continue with the delusion of "multiple top-down controlled servers" means we are decentralized.

I don't have time to follow their work. I had enough detailed discussions with bytemaster last year to determine:

1. He is reasonably smart (sometimes very innovative and clever) and knows how to code.

2. His conceptualization is always flawed at some level (may not bite him immediately but eventually will).

[Skinnkavaj]

Can we get back to talking about AnonyMint's idea of government backed digital currencies? It's something that seems inevitable but everyone seems to conveniently ignore.

Imagine the efficiency of tax collecting through a database of currency you control. It's the government's ultimate weapon.

Seriously please don't.
I advise rpietila to moderate post about this. This such a boring old subject that has been discussed all over Bitcointalk "What if government blabla"
Truth is government will not succeed because no one will support it this is the whole idea behind Bitcoin, that Bitcoin is unstoppable, and anyone who thinks otherwise is just a complete tin foil hat that can go back to the conspiracy forum.

Can we go back to technical discussions about altcoins and not some conspiracy nut job theories from AnonyMint.