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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805162 times)
cypherdoc
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March 13, 2012, 09:27:29 PM
 #21

the $DXY is screaming "look out" for all risk assets including gold and oil.

 
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Blitz­
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March 13, 2012, 09:30:52 PM
 #22

And you still think Bitcoin won’t be affected by a USD deflation?

To me it seems like the first asset to be liquidated in terms of risk.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
cypherdoc
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March 13, 2012, 09:35:52 PM
 #23

And you still think Bitcoin won’t be affected by a USD deflation?

To me it seems like the first asset to be liquidated in terms of risk.

you asked me this before and i said then that it could drop too.  but i still think its tremendously undervalued and could behave unpredictably to the upside similar to the argument that the gold bugs advance that in crisis, whether it be inflation or deflation, they feel gold will rise.  the reason i think gold falls in a deflation is that i feel we're at the end of a 12 yr bull in gold/silver as well as all the other arguments against it outlined many times before.
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March 13, 2012, 09:45:35 PM
 #24

... i think gold/silver is a relic of the past and Bitcoin will assume its place as a new standard.  i think gold drops to $400.  i think that we are about to embark on a massive debt deleveraging phase which will be deflationary and take stocks down with it to test the March 09 lows at least. ...
i'm going to try and not say much more as i could be wrong and i know the gold bugs are going to start swarming with the hate.

No hate. I had my nice 30% haircut having gold in 2008 and I can agree with your short term prophecy of a dip (but $400 is way over the top), but I did not abandon the gold ship and I am happy for it. In the long term, until asians keep liking and buying gold, I see it as the most safe asset -provided that is gold that you can hold.

labestiol
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March 13, 2012, 09:53:35 PM
 #25

Thanks for you opinion cypherdoc, no hate here either.
I mainly disagree with you on the date of bitcoin mass adoption, thus i think we have more upside for PM for a few years. But it'll happen.

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March 13, 2012, 09:53:45 PM
 #26

gold collapsing? thats laughable.. just a good time to buy more.. its just going to keep going up and up.... silver too!

In the 70's, a silver dime bought a gallon of gas. Today, a silver dime still buys a gallon of gas. Ponder on that Wink

never thought about that.. interesting

poop!
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March 13, 2012, 11:09:17 PM
 #27

If there is a bubble with gold it's a small/medium one at best.
You must be kidding me too.

Do you really think you can just about buy the same stuff with Gold as you could 10 years ago? All just inflation? And if there has been growth in purchasing power, that it is all natural and not at all speculative? Grin Grin Grin

We're in a depression. One should expect to be able to purchase more with real money during a depression, as prices fall. Again, don't measure prices with USD. Measure prices with gold. Hard to do when everything on the shelf says USD, but it's a good habit to form.

And I never said the gold price was "all natural" and "not at all speculative." Who knows? I just know that the gold price can go up forever (and will) if money is printed forever, so one should not assume that the rise over the past 10 years is just a temporary gold bubble. For the most part, the rise of the gold price over the past hundred years is just an inversion of the decline in the value of the US dollar and it's important that people understand that.
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March 13, 2012, 11:33:42 PM
 #28

Gold going down, mean that the economy 'feels' more safe (it isn't we are still perched on the edge of a cliff).
Therefore, value will move from Gold into more risky investment, such as Oil, and Bitcoin.  (and the stock market, but I would be staying away from that If I was you).
In another round… and if as Bitcoin becomes more respected and ‘safe,’  pressure from the continually devaluating dollar, will push value back into Bitcoin, and Gold.

Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to benefit from both saturations.

One off NP-Hard.
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March 13, 2012, 11:45:41 PM
 #29

Be careful what you wish for, a large enough dip in gold could affect bitcoin prices quite a bit if some of the new bit-rich decide it's time to get some.

Who thinks that the gold bull market is over is delusional imo.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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March 14, 2012, 12:05:34 AM
 #30

So will the gold bugs start fleeing the ship and buy some BTC? Grin

No way. Gold bugs are all about the physical. Their 40 year scenarios involve a global meltdown and general SYSTEM FAILURE, a "gold" that requires a functioning internet and power system would be laughable to them.

Then they have a perspective that is a bit sketchy... Unless they think that gold settlements can be accomplished without a functioning Internet and power system—perhaps via a convoy of Humvees...

Yes, laughable.


the 40 year global meltdown systemic failure goldbugs hoard bullion!

the hedging against semi-hyperinflation goldbugs are happy with there electronic gold, and there protective puts.

I think a bit of each is nice to have in any portfolio, along with your bitcoin Smiley

my views haven't changed.  i think gold/silver is a relic of the past and Bitcoin will assume its place as a new standard.  i think gold drops to $400. 

$400 gold? That would be some payday, aye.

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March 14, 2012, 12:16:12 AM
 #31

very good sign IMO.

Did the Fed quit printing money??
cypherdoc
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March 14, 2012, 12:18:12 AM
 #32

very good sign IMO.

Did the Fed quit printing money??

no, but i think Bitcoin and gold will switch places.  it may take 8 yrs or so but i think it will happen.
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March 14, 2012, 12:25:55 AM
 #33

LOL, you're too smart to deduct that from today's action. Think about how much money went out of gold vs how much money went in bitcoin.
IMO you're trying to see an inverse correlation where it's not there (yet)

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silverbox
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March 14, 2012, 12:31:43 AM
 #34

Smiley 

so the backtested for thousands of years store of value (gold)..  Good in Roman times, good today..

The GLD ETF has a market cap of 69 billion dollars..

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/gld

Every Government in the world holds tons of gold just in case..

But BTC will overtake all that in just 8 years..

That is freaking amazing!!!!!!!!
bitcool
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March 14, 2012, 12:35:19 AM
 #35

It's called "an extraordinary claim"
labestiol
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March 14, 2012, 12:38:26 AM
 #36

It has been estimated that all the gold mined by the end of 2009 totaled 165,000 tonnes. At a price of US$1900 per troy ounce, reached in September 2011, one tonne of gold has a value of approximately US$61.1 million. The total value of all gold ever mined would exceed US$10.1 trillion at that valuation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

I also think it'll take much more than 8 years...

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cypherdoc
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March 14, 2012, 12:53:08 AM
 #37

does this look like inflation?

bitcool
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March 14, 2012, 01:08:41 AM
 #38




What are those numbers on the Y-axis?

Whatever it is, gold went from $300 to $1800 in the last 10 years, and that number went from 2.1 to 1.6; so the lower it goes, the higher gold price you'll see, right?  Wink
silverbox
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March 14, 2012, 01:15:17 AM
 #39

does this look like inflation?



cypherdoc
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March 14, 2012, 02:09:52 AM
 #40

instead of rehashing all the same arguments, i'll just have you guys reread my thread started last Aug 9, 2011.  we'll just translate that date over to today and see what happens.

we are now at the start of wave 3 down in gold which will be the most devastating.

Gold: I smell a trap   
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