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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804277 times)
2weiX
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March 20, 2012, 11:30:55 AM
 #221


some of these questions and the scenarios derived from the answerse indeed supercede any and all technical analyses.

while these are all well considered and interesting to read, the private investor (such as myself) should look far beyond what any trader (also: such as myself) would consider in making decisions.

if it all goes "to shit" then you're far better off with austrian harmonics and maples as well as some 5g gold bars than with some piece of paper you boght or sold for immediate profit.

there are in fact (at least) TWO DIFFERENT ways and motivations to invest in Gold and Silver. OP is in one camp. I am in the other.  Both investors have completely different motivations. Holding PMs physically is a completely different ballgame (considerung the premiums alone).


Disclosure: I own physical gold and silver. I am constantly replenishing and adding to my portfolio. I will continue to buy because I do not trust paper money and I do not trust paper receipts. I do also invest in stocks and bonds, but only short- and midterm.

I also do not trust anyone anymore,
so, btc, PMs, cash and real estate are my preferred choices,
I currently do not own only real estate
it is the only thing of the above that has no allodial title to it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allodial_title

but problem is that cash and PMs look too grim,
and I "have to" exit the stock market soon
cant put it all into  btc Smiley

in case of a monetary reform and/or a war and/or a new government real estate isn't the "best" of the options since you cannot move it, hide it... but it WILL BE TAXED!
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cypherdoc
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March 20, 2012, 01:41:27 PM
 #222

oh my.
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March 20, 2012, 01:43:37 PM
 #223

+1

Hey my friend,

you haven' given me any love yet for my 10/6/11 call that stocks would clear the May highs.  i only ask cuz you publicly disagreed with me at the time.   Grin
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March 20, 2012, 01:53:43 PM
 #224

GDX breaks below major support level.  AAPL making the turn lower.
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March 20, 2012, 02:08:02 PM
 #225

I'm interested (without prejudice; I don't have a horse in this race), how Apple's recent decision to start buying back stock and issuing dividends affects your analysis?

Won't their buying push the price up?

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March 20, 2012, 02:12:06 PM
 #226

I'm interested (without prejudice; I don't have a horse in this race), how Apple's recent decision to start buying back stock and issuing dividends affects your analysis?

Won't their buying push the price up?

red herring.  these type of announcements always occur at tops.  JPM did the same. 

classic mistake of buying high and selling low.
molecular
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March 20, 2012, 02:14:12 PM
 #227

Most people do not know about or understand the futures manipulations in silver. If they did there would be a lot more buying of physical silver.

A lot of people understand, but these have already bought and are waiting for even lower prices to keep stacking.

Thing is: The group of people that understand does not have much influx, so most members are in waiting mode hoping for a big smack-down.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
molecular
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March 20, 2012, 02:17:20 PM
 #228

Problem with Silver is people have no clue that its actual real money.


this statement is problematic, because it only is really money if enough people think so and/or use it as such.

Silver has really been money and it might really be again, but quite frankly, while you can buy stuff with silver in many places, I would say it currently really isn't.


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molecular
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March 20, 2012, 02:21:40 PM
 #229


some of these questions and the scenarios derived from the answerse indeed supercede any and all technical analyses.

while these are all well considered and interesting to read, the private investor (such as myself) should look far beyond what any trader (also: such as myself) would consider in making decisions.

if it all goes "to shit" then you're far better off with austrian harmonics and maples as well as some 5g gold bars than with some piece of paper you boght or sold for immediate profit.

there are in fact (at least) TWO DIFFERENT ways and motivations to invest in Gold and Silver. OP is in one camp. I am in the other.  Both investors have completely different motivations. Holding PMs physically is a completely different ballgame (considerung the premiums alone).


Disclosure: I own physical gold and silver. I am constantly replenishing and adding to my portfolio. I will continue to buy because I do not trust paper money and I do not trust paper receipts. I do also invest in stocks and bonds, but only short- and midterm.

I also do not trust anyone anymore,
so, btc, PMs, cash and real estate are my preferred choices,
I currently do not own only real estate
it is the only thing of the above that has no allodial title to it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allodial_title

but problem is that cash and PMs look too grim,
and I "have to" exit the stock market soon
cant put it all into  btc Smiley

why not? that might turn out to be the deal of your life.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
molecular
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March 20, 2012, 02:23:38 PM
 #230

in case of a monetary reform and/or a war and/or a new government real estate isn't the "best" of the options since you cannot move it, hide it... but it WILL BE TAXED!

oh how true. and in any of the precondition cases, the govt. needs lots of money, so the TAX WILL BE HIGH!

EDIT: gee, I'm in a babbly mood today.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
muyuu
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March 20, 2012, 02:41:34 PM
 #231

This week it's gold up, BTC collapsing.

GPG ID: 7294199D - OTC ID: muyuu (470F97EB7294199D)
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March 20, 2012, 02:46:40 PM
 #232

This week it's gold up, BTC collapsing.

I would say gold up, bitcoin correcting Wink
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March 20, 2012, 02:55:37 PM
 #233

I'm interested (without prejudice; I don't have a horse in this race), how Apple's recent decision to start buying back stock and issuing dividends affects your analysis?

Won't their buying push the price up?

red herring.  these type of announcements always occur at tops.  JPM did the same. 

classic mistake of buying high and selling low.

S&P just bounced off of 1400... its not crashing yet...
notme
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March 20, 2012, 02:58:21 PM
 #234

I'm interested (without prejudice; I don't have a horse in this race), how Apple's recent decision to start buying back stock and issuing dividends affects your analysis?

Won't their buying push the price up?

Announced dividend is 1.7% yearly at current prices... You still need more price appreciation to beat average inflation.  If deflation happens, overpriced phones and 99 cent songs will be among the first to go.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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notme
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March 20, 2012, 03:39:23 PM
 #235

I'm interested (without prejudice; I don't have a horse in this race), how Apple's recent decision to start buying back stock and issuing dividends affects your analysis?

Won't their buying push the price up?

red herring.  these type of announcements always occur at tops.  JPM did the same. 

classic mistake of buying high and selling low.

S&P just bounced off of 1400... its not crashing yet...

600 of that 1400 is AAPL... I just sold a couple dogs in my portfolio (GBG, HPQ) and loaded up on SPXU.

Maybe it won't roll over, but what I let go was only losing me money anyway.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
SkRRJyTC
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March 20, 2012, 03:45:43 PM
 #236

I'm interested (without prejudice; I don't have a horse in this race), how Apple's recent decision to start buying back stock and issuing dividends affects your analysis?

Won't their buying push the price up?

red herring.  these type of announcements always occur at tops.  JPM did the same. 

classic mistake of buying high and selling low.

S&P just bounced off of 1400... its not crashing yet...

600 of that 1400 is AAPL... I just sold a couple dogs in my portfolio (GBG, HPQ) and loaded up on SPXU.

Maybe it won't roll over, but what I let go was only losing me money anyway.

I only have a play money account in the real market but I really dont think we are going back below DOW13000 and S&P1400 for another few months.

I am watching AAPL as a potential lead indicator as well...  Sure the RSI is at 100 again(it basically has been since Jan) but with the dividend and share buyback announced along with this http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-19/apple-sells-record-3-million-new-ipads-in-tablet-s-debut-weekend ... I think the pilling in of retail investors is just starting.  AAPL will continue bubbling to at least 700.
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March 20, 2012, 03:51:06 PM
 #237


I only have a play money account in the real market but I really dont think we are going back below DOW13000 and S&P1400 for another few months.

I am watching AAPL as a potential lead indicator as well...  Sure the RSI is at 100 again(it basically has been since Jan) but with the dividend and share buyback announced along with this http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-19/apple-sells-record-3-million-new-ipads-in-tablet-s-debut-weekend ... I think the pilling in of retail investors is just starting.  AAPL will continue bubbling to at least 700.

I think you may be right, the piling in of retail investors on AAPL.  I just found out someone I know bought AAPL yesterday, cause their Finacial Advisor said it had forward looking PE of 12..  *roll eyes*.  I think its about topped out, but heck I could be wrong, it might run for a few more hundred..
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March 20, 2012, 04:06:53 PM
 #238


I only have a play money account in the real market but I really dont think we are going back below DOW13000 and S&P1400 for another few months.

I am watching AAPL as a potential lead indicator as well...  Sure the RSI is at 100 again(it basically has been since Jan) but with the dividend and share buyback announced along with this http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-19/apple-sells-record-3-million-new-ipads-in-tablet-s-debut-weekend ... I think the pilling in of retail investors is just starting.  AAPL will continue bubbling to at least 700.


I'm interested (without prejudice; I don't have a horse in this race), how Apple's recent decision to start buying back stock and issuing dividends affects your analysis?

Won't their buying push the price up?

Announced dividend is 1.7% yearly at current prices... You still need more price appreciation to beat average inflation.  If deflation happens, overpriced phones and 99 cent songs will be among the first to go.

But, yes, I'm aware the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent.  $200 short at 3:1 is a risk I'm willing to take.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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March 20, 2012, 04:23:31 PM
 #239


why not? that might turn out to be the deal of your life.

i already bought
now diversification
cypherdoc
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March 20, 2012, 05:23:01 PM
 #240

oh my.
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