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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 353134 times)
MatthewLM
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March 20, 2012, 02:21:30 AM
 #201

The experts say that if gold was in a bubble, mining stocks would be doing extremely well. That's a point to make out.

The thing about mining stocks is that they are much more risky but can potentially give high returns if you know which ones to pick (When looking at explorers in particular). Buying physical gold is the safe option.

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March 20, 2012, 02:25:19 AM
 #202

The experts say that if gold was in a bubble, mining stocks would be doing extremely well. That's a point to make out.

The thing about mining stocks is that they are much more risky but can potentially give high returns if you know which ones to pick (When looking at explorers in particular). Buying physical gold is the safe option.

how much punishment are you willing to take?  i'd advise you to go back to my original gold thread and read about the primacy of the USD and how it affects all assets including gold/silver.

the silver chart is BUSTED.  it leads gold.  don't be a hero.
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March 20, 2012, 02:33:09 AM
 #203

The silver chart is busted?

Quote
i'd advise you to go back to my original gold thread and read about the primacy of the USD and how it affects all assets including gold/silver.

How the USD compares to other currencies relates to gold and silver?

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March 20, 2012, 02:36:06 AM
 #204

The silver chart is busted?


yes it is and badly so.  who's been more right since last August, your experts or me?  the only chart not completely busted in the pm space is gold but soon it will be too.  everything else has been destroyed; majors and junior miners and silver itself.

you don't realize it yet but you already had your parabola; last August.
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March 20, 2012, 02:44:54 AM
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Silver isn't gold. There was a small bubble in silver (Because it came and went quick) but not gold. Silver (and gold) is being held back dramatically by price manipulators in the futures markets. I'm working on the impression that manipulators can only scare investors away and suppress the prices with naked shorts for so long; reality will eventually win. People scared away from the silver crash from last year may eventually come back in as inevitability arises.

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March 20, 2012, 02:46:21 AM
 #206

Can you explain how silver is Busted when the return is over 18 Percent and even if its being heavily manipulated? Silver is so undervalue I'm actually waiting till it drops more so I can buy more physical and keep stacking. Problem with Silver is people have no clue that its actual real money.

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March 20, 2012, 02:48:27 AM
 #207

Most people do not know about or understand the futures manipulations in silver. If they did there would be a lot more buying of physical silver.

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March 20, 2012, 02:59:46 AM
 #208

Problem with Silver is people have no clue that its actual real money.


i'm sure there is nothing i can say to convince you otherwise.
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March 20, 2012, 03:11:42 AM
 #209

I believe with silver dollars, an ounce of silver was equivalent to $1.29?

Looks like it was the USD that crashed, silver no.

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March 20, 2012, 03:15:15 AM
 #210

The silver chart is busted?


yes it is and badly so.  who's been more right since last August, your experts or me?  the only chart not completely busted in the pm space is gold but soon it will be too.  everything else has been destroyed; majors and junior miners and silver itself.

you don't realize it yet but you already had your parabola; last August.
If this is the discusssion you were talking about:
   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0
I don't see any proof that you were "more right":
  

Gold was around 1600 last August , and today it's around 1660, it wasn't a trap, and it's not collapsing.

Thanks to Bob Prechter, it's now my firm belief that most PM technicians are either clown artists or con artists, with very few exceptions.  
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March 20, 2012, 03:27:16 AM
 #211

I believe with silver dollars, an ounce of silver was equivalent to $1.29?

Looks like it was the USD that crashed, silver no.

i could just as easily say that if you invested at $49 per ounce of silver, you've suffered greatly.

Matthew; are you prepared for a generational ramp in the USD from the next deflationary wave?  everyone understands inflation.  hey, just print.  

Deflation is the more difficult argument to understand but you have to for your health.  there's even a thread over on Economics right now by a poster trying to understand its dynamic.  i suggest all of you read it. my original gold thread explains it even better.  

just look at the futures right now.  they explain it all; $DXY up, everything else down, stocks, gold, silver, oil.
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March 20, 2012, 03:50:15 AM
 #212


I don't see any proof that you were "more right":
 

i started that thread on Aug 9, 2011 gold hit $1782 and was 1.5 wks before the top.  who do you know who called it that close?

its had several devastating drops since then which i profited by shorting.  you're also seeing a series of lower highs and lower lows.

i also made it publicly clear in that same thread when i sold silver at at $49 and at an avg price of $44 last May.

i also called the top in the pm miners here:   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg522374#msg522374
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March 20, 2012, 03:58:22 AM
 #213

Isn't an uninhibited bull run only really possible when there are basically no bears?

Or will there always be bears?

It's generally the other way around - lots of bears means the time is ripe for a bull. There are plenty of sellers and few buyers, so the sellers have no more room to push prices down while the buyers have plenty of room to run up.

edit:  i know several of you guys have been pumping pm mining stocks ever since i started the other Gold thread last August.  i told you to get out then.  how's that going?

Smiley

The options fell short - couldn't quite break even despite the Feb rally. Bad timing there on my part, but I've noted that I'm typically early anyway (usually by 1/2 to 1 full cycle). You definitely have a honed nose for shorter trading scales.

On the other hand, the mining stocks are cash-flow positive with healthy dividends. Overall NAV from acquisitions since last August is about even, gainers and losers balancing out (AEM is one). It's a different story when looking at accumulation over the past few years, which is highly positive in addition to generating cash-flow.

Keep in mind - NO ETFs, NO LEVERAGE, PHYSICAL METAL ONLY.

Therefore, time is on my side. The same applies with Bitcoin. In fact, I'm expecting a hit on gold/silver tomorrow just as Bitcoin was assaulted today. Bitcoin has been leading the metals by about a day for quite some time now, and I am growing increasingly suspicious of this behaviour.

From a little earlier:

the deflation will has already overwhelmed them. 

Fixed Smiley

That's why the prices we see today are an illusion. The numbers being given today are fabrications.

Contract != Physical

Because of that, paper contract prices can collapse while physical asset prices climb. Official sources probably will only quote paper prices, so unless you're producing or have some way of accessing relevant production cost (e.g. from a mining company shareholder report or a Chinese/Singaporean exchange), you won't know the real value of an asset. That's the true power the CME/COMEX/LBMA have - illusion.

Vlad's perspective is dead-on. Death by currency collapse. The short-game makes it look like gold is doomed, but the hidden movements will cause resumption of explosive volatility in exactly the opposite direction that you're expecting - until full separation, at which point we'll both be right: official prices will fall precipitously while physical metal premiums will skyrocket.

Keep picking the corners - you're damn good at it. Just keep a tight grip on the physical... and Bitcoin Smiley

If this is the discusssion you were talking about:
   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0
I don't see any proof that you were "more right":

Gold was around 1600 last August , and today it's around 1660, it wasn't a trap, and it's not collapsing.

Thanks to Bob Prechter, it's now my firm belief that most PM technicians are either clown artists or con artists, with very few exceptions. 

For the short-term movements, he was definitely right.

I think most PM techs are neither clowns nor cons, they're simply looking at gold as a mere tradeable security. That's as bad as being a con clown. Prechter is one of them.

For valid analysis:
http://www.jsmineset.com/
http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/

are you prepared for a generational ramp in the USD from the next deflationary wave?  everyone understands inflation.  hey, just print. 

The only generational action occurring is the USD losing its place as a global exchange medium. Both deflation and inflation take a back seat to increasing irrelevance; it's the greatest insult. Who cares what the USD does if nations stop using it? That makes it worthless no matter what - different dynamic.

Of course, as we agreed in the gold thread, our objectives are different.

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March 20, 2012, 04:05:28 AM
 #214

My Main Man Miscreanity.  i've been holding my breath waiting for you to show up.  now its time for my head to hurt!

you're the only one who's opinion i value around here even if i don't think its right!

give me a bit to get my head together and i'll consider starting up our heated discussions once again.  not sure i want to. Wink
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March 20, 2012, 05:08:44 AM
 #215

its important to view pm's in the context of the economy as a whole.  which is why you see me constantly talking about other markets besides pm's in my blog and in my posts here.  pm's are affected by these other market movements.  Bitcoin is even one of those markets that i believe has significance.

when i called the bottom of the stock market correction here on Oct 6th, 2011:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg560220#msg560220 i even went as far as to project a move up and beyond the May 2011 highs in the Dow.  seems so long ago. we reached it and was one of the greatest calls of my career.

when i made that call even then i knew i would be looking for a particular setup in markets once this was accomplished as now which would indicate a top.  specifically divergences among other things.  we have that setup now.  once stocks roll, and it could even start tomorrow, i think there's a good chance we go all the way down to revisit March, 2009 and perhaps lower over the next 4 yrs.

if we do, what do you think will happen to pm's and their stocks?  they will plunge below $500 i believe.  go back and review what happened to pm miners in 2008.  carnage.  the gold price dropped but it wasn't catastrophic.  this time i think it will be worse b/c we're at the end of a 12 yr bull mkt.  this wil be THE BIG ONE.

inflationists and pm bulls will say that the Fed will just print and won't let markets go down.  i ask; why did they let us have 2 devastating stock crashes in the last 12 yr and a housing implosion?
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March 20, 2012, 08:46:05 AM
 #216


inflationists and pm bulls will say that the Fed will just print and won't let markets go down.  i ask; why did they let us have 2 devastating stock crashes in the last 12 yr and a housing implosion?

can you elaborate on these few things :

ratio of physical to paper metals

diminishing stockpiles of silver available for investors

increasing investors fears, (nowhere to go)
or, if you own stocks , when you want to sell and get out, it has to go through bank and could "vaporize"
just like in mf global case

possibilities of great war
looks like big countries are abandoning usd

china acting like all commodities are "too cheap"
buying more than needed for production
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March 20, 2012, 09:02:59 AM
 #217


inflationists and pm bulls will say that the Fed will just print and won't let markets go down.  i ask; why did they let us have 2 devastating stock crashes in the last 12 yr and a housing implosion?

can you elaborate on these few things :

ratio of physical to paper metals

diminishing stockpiles of silver available for investors

increasing investors fears, (nowhere to go)
or, if you own stocks , when you want to sell and get out, it has to go through bank and could "vaporize"
just like in mf global case

possibilities of great war
looks like big countries are abandoning usd

china acting like all commodities are "too cheap"
buying more than needed for production


some of these questions and the scenarios derived from the answerse indeed supercede any and all technical analyses.

while these are all well considered and interesting to read, the private investor (such as myself) should look far beyond what any trader (also: such as myself) would consider in making decisions.

if it all goes "to shit" then you're far better off with austrian harmonics and maples as well as some 5g gold bars than with some piece of paper you boght or sold for immediate profit.

there are in fact (at least) TWO DIFFERENT ways and motivations to invest in Gold and Silver. OP is in one camp. I am in the other.  Both investors have completely different motivations. Holding PMs physically is a completely different ballgame (considerung the premiums alone).


Disclosure: I own physical gold and silver. I am constantly replenishing and adding to my portfolio. I will continue to buy because I do not trust paper money and I do not trust paper receipts. I do also invest in stocks and bonds, but only short- and midterm.

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March 20, 2012, 10:39:28 AM
 #218


some of these questions and the scenarios derived from the answerse indeed supercede any and all technical analyses.

while these are all well considered and interesting to read, the private investor (such as myself) should look far beyond what any trader (also: such as myself) would consider in making decisions.

if it all goes "to shit" then you're far better off with austrian harmonics and maples as well as some 5g gold bars than with some piece of paper you boght or sold for immediate profit.

there are in fact (at least) TWO DIFFERENT ways and motivations to invest in Gold and Silver. OP is in one camp. I am in the other.  Both investors have completely different motivations. Holding PMs physically is a completely different ballgame (considerung the premiums alone).


Disclosure: I own physical gold and silver. I am constantly replenishing and adding to my portfolio. I will continue to buy because I do not trust paper money and I do not trust paper receipts. I do also invest in stocks and bonds, but only short- and midterm.

I also do not trust anyone anymore,
so, btc, PMs, cash and real estate are my preferred choices,
I currently do not own only real estate
it is the only thing of the above that has no allodial title to it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allodial_title

but problem is that cash and PMs look too grim,
and I "have to" exit the stock market soon
cant put it all into  btc Smiley
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March 20, 2012, 11:07:35 AM
 #219

and how long term PM bulls look at this ?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57399610/sweden-moving-towards-cashless-economy/

what are exit strategies ?
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March 20, 2012, 11:25:57 AM
 #220

and how long term PM bulls look at this ?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57399610/sweden-moving-towards-cashless-economy/

what are exit strategies ?

digital money relates to PMs the same way paper money does.


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