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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806368 times)
MatthewLM
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April 18, 2012, 06:48:03 PM
 #741

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but we've sure had 2 stock mkt crashes of around 57% and an ongoing housing crash.  that sure is deflation and who wants to go thru that again?

By inflation/deflation we don't just refer to property prices and stocks, you know?

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cypherdoc
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April 18, 2012, 06:50:40 PM
 #742


Also, there's always a victim whenever a squeeze occurs. It's no longer just leveraged futures traders being forced to liquidate:
Syria selling gold reserves as sanctions bite


this is actually a great point but needs to be looked at from a different angle.  what i see is the need for countries to sell their assets, namely gold, to raise fiat to pay their obligations.

i was having a discussion with one of my subscribers from Spain the other day and he was saying how he thinks you'll soon be seeing the likes of Greece and Spain having to do the same thing to pay their debts.
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April 18, 2012, 06:51:45 PM
 #743

he says that the Fed is clearly worried about Deflation.  so maybe you should too?  the real question is whether they can or will be able to stop it.  i think they're losing the battle... Grin

I've said it before: they already lost the battle. What they're fighting now is disintegration of everything that's been built upon a brittle foundation. That's being done by maintaining an illusion of an illusion (illusion: fractional reserve; illusion of illusion: stability of unlimited exponential growth via fractal reserve).

i'll tell you what scares the hell out of me.  its this chart of the Dow going back to 1900 non log.  inflationists just see a linear extension of the upward trend to infinity.  does that really make sense given all the problems in the world today?

i think we have a problem that the last 12 yrs is trying to tell us.  MAJOR TOP is what i see:

Good example. I'd like to see that in inflation-adjusted terms. Relative gains would be much lower than they appear there. Again, the illusion of absolute values versus relative. It's like trying to measure a kilometer when the length keeps changing.
cypherdoc
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April 18, 2012, 06:52:41 PM
 #744

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but we've sure had 2 stock mkt crashes of around 57% and an ongoing housing crash.  that sure is deflation and who wants to go thru that again?

By inflation/deflation we don't just refer to property prices and stocks, you know?

but they're all integrated.  you need to know whats happening in all these asset classes to understand what will happen with gold and Bitcoin.  thats what my subscription is for.
MatthewLM
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April 18, 2012, 06:56:01 PM
 #745

Well excuse me, I had no idea that stocks and property prices were such superb indicators of gold prices.

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cypherdoc
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April 18, 2012, 06:56:50 PM
 #746

Well excuse me, I had no idea that stocks and property prices were such superb indicators of gold prices.

you're excused.
miscreanity
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April 18, 2012, 07:24:43 PM
 #747

this is actually a great point but needs to be looked at from a different angle.  what i see is the need for countries to sell their assets, namely gold, to raise fiat to pay their obligations.

i was having a discussion with one of my subscribers from Spain the other day and he was saying how he thinks you'll soon be seeing the likes of Greece and Spain having to do the same thing to pay their debts.

We're really talking about the same thing, but forget just financial obligations. This is forced liquidation at a national level, beyond the financial factor. You can't eat gold, nor dollars, nor oil - but they can all be used to obtain or produce food. Once everything is sold, the gold owners will look like saints when they "benevolently" allow resources for the destroyed nations' survival.

Greece is already undergoing theft of its gold. Italy, Spain, Portugal and all the rest are in the process of being or will be looted as well. It's a concentration of the power base via gold by forcing weaker players to liquidate in order to survive. Any that don't submit will endure riots, starvation, and possibly self-destruction through civil war - at which point they will be too weak to prevent stronger ones from coming in and instituting globalist regimes.

Now for some rhetoric:

Imagine I am the financially weakened US (as in suffering from a terminal disease), and you're Italy. Wearing an IMF mask, I hold a gun to your head and tell you to give me your shoes. You refuse. I shoot you in the leg. I demand your shoes again. You refuse again. I shoot your other leg. I demand your shoes again. You still refuse. I shoot you in the shoulder. Now you're too injured to fight back in any way, so I take your shoes and get France to make sure you behave yourself while I move on to Spain.

By knocking everyone else down to my level, they can't ignore me. Instead of dying alone of my advanced socialist disease, we're all in the same boat now and have to work together to survive. If any of them don't help, we all risk going down together. The western world has been reduced to mutually-assured destruction in an extremely frail state because of the aggressively destructive behaviours presented while America was still strong, rather than respectful cooperation and support with a vested interest in each others' well-being. This is the offer that cannot be refused instead of the desire to repay out of admiration and respect.

It's just like CIA methods of establishing friendly governments and leadership in South America, only on a much grander and more brazen scale. There's literally nothing anyone can do about it. The only things standing in the way are:
  • Energy resource availability
  • Distributed gold ownership
  • China/BRIC resistance
  • Decentralized technologies
cypherdoc
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April 18, 2012, 09:39:38 PM
 #748

now that we're above $5 reliably, the pressure is mounting in an upward direction on the Bitcoin price. 
cypherdoc
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April 18, 2012, 09:44:00 PM
 #749

i think the stock mkt selloff resumes in a big way and the money flowing out of those assets are going to head for cash, i.e., digital cash.
silverbox
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April 18, 2012, 11:17:13 PM
 #750

Is this the sell off that has been NOT happening for the last month? Wink


Hypothetically:

If say 1% of the money of a 10% Stock market drop was invested in BTC..

Market cap ~16 trillion.  10% 1.6 trillion..  1% of 10%  16 billion

Imagine..  ~16 billion USD into BTC..

~16,000,000,000 USD  /  ~8,000,000 BTC

We'd be at ~2k USD per BTC..

This crack I'm smoking is really f'n good!!
cypherdoc
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April 18, 2012, 11:34:41 PM
 #751

Granted most ppl cannot see it happening even when its right in front of their noses.  but even you will be able to tell soon enough, even on that yearly chart Wink
silverbox
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April 19, 2012, 12:23:18 AM
 #752

nothing new, idiots will buy now aaple and soon facebook  because look it goes up

the music is about to stop smart money is going out and these late at the party will remain with the fat ugly chick

I love them BBW's!!  Warm in the winter, Shady in the summer!! Smiley
notme
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April 19, 2012, 12:43:13 AM
 #753

Is this the sell off that has been NOT happening for the last month? Wink


Hypothetically:

If say 1% of the money of a 10% Stock market drop was invested in BTC..

Market cap ~16 trillion.  10% 1.6 trillion..  1% of 10%  16 billion

Imagine..  ~16 billion USD into BTC..

~16,000,000,000 USD  /  ~8,000,000 BTC

We'd be at ~2k USD per BTC..

This crack I'm smoking is really f'n good!!

But what about 1 hundredth of a percent?  By your formula, that would be 20 USD per BTC.  The big investment banks are aware of bitcoin.  What percent of the money flowing out of assets do you think they control?  Would they throw a hundredth of a percent at Bitcoin when no other assets will hold value?  Perhaps.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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miscreanity
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April 19, 2012, 01:39:16 AM
 #754

I love them BBW's!!  Warm in the winter, Shady in the summer!! Smiley

I just threw up a little in my mouth.
dopamine
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April 19, 2012, 01:51:24 AM
 #755

Do we have a service yet where I can use my BTC to short AAPL, the bubble is about to pop, quick someone provide a service and make this possible....

Bitcoinica still has not given me 50% of my claim of 600 BTC
INTERSANGO can go down with bitcoinica for abandoning customers
Alberto Armandi is a SCAMMER
miscreanity
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April 19, 2012, 01:57:16 AM
 #756

But what about 1 hundredth of a percent?  By your formula, that would be 20 USD per BTC.  The big investment banks are aware of bitcoin.  What percent of the money flowing out of assets do you think they control?  Would they throw a hundredth of a percent at Bitcoin when no other assets will hold value?  Perhaps.

JP Bitcoinica!

The result would happen as a process over a long period anyway, maybe a decade. With lots of ups & downs.

At that point, I'd be thinking more about a percentage of total derivatives, not just the equities markets - $700 trillion ($1.4+ quadrillion prior to BIS revisions). Gold established as a global reserve would need to back all outstanding debt on top of existing money supplies in order to stabilise the system - likely at a minimum of 10%. Bitcoin system denomination at 100th of that would be $700 to $1400 billion in 2011 dollars, or ~$30,000/BTC.

And then there's System D...
proudhon
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April 19, 2012, 02:22:49 AM
 #757

But what about 1 hundredth of a percent?  By your formula, that would be 20 USD per BTC.  The big investment banks are aware of bitcoin.  What percent of the money flowing out of assets do you think they control?  Would they throw a hundredth of a percent at Bitcoin when no other assets will hold value?  Perhaps.

JP Bitcoinica!

The result would happen as a process over a long period anyway, maybe a decade. With lots of ups & downs.

At that point, I'd be thinking more about a percentage of total derivatives, not just the equities markets - $700 trillion ($1.4+ quadrillion prior to BIS revisions). Gold established as a global reserve would need to back all outstanding debt on top of existing money supplies in order to stabilise the system - likely at a minimum of 10%. Bitcoin system denomination at 100th of that would be $700 to $1400 billion in 2011 dollars, or ~$30,000/BTC.

And then there's System D...

Oh god, this stuff again?  It's making me feel like it's April 2011 all over again.
Stephen Gornick
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April 19, 2012, 03:18:36 AM
 #758

current connections on gox are higher than normal.

I'm a little embarrassed to admit that I didn't know there was such a metric.  Would you mind sharing how this is determined?   

notme
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April 19, 2012, 03:22:51 AM
 #759

current connections on gox are higher than normal.

I'm a little embarrassed to admit that I didn't know there was such a metric.  Would you mind sharing how this is determined?   

http://mtgoxlive.com/orders?dark

Bottom left- "currently connected: ?"

btccharts also has a "? online" in the top right

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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cypherdoc
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April 19, 2012, 04:17:15 AM
 #760

Sisyphus is biting his lip....hard.
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