Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[S3052]

+1

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[cypherdoc]

a couple of additional points.  

there are ppl who suggest that golds retreat is indicative of fear coming out of the market resulting in an all clear sign for a continued ramp in stocks.  i see it differently.  it appears to me the progression of the rollover is going to be different than in 2007-08 in that this time pm's and commodities are rolling first to be later followed by the Dow and stocks.  back in 2007, the Dow rolled first in October only to be followed by gold and oil about 9 months later.  liquidity is coming out of the system as exemplified by the Greek debt writedown and the coming other PIGS.

shadow banking is also contracting substantially.

also, i've read a few posts that say stocks have little to no resistance to the upside from here.  i disagree.  look at the volume profile as it relates to the old highs btwn here and 14198.  this represents tremendous overhead resistance:

[silverbox]

Where's the collapse??

Still positive for the year..

[cypherdoc]

Where's the collapse??

Still positive for the year..

a collapse doesn't have to happen suddenly.  i called the gold top in August last year as well as the silver collapse from May last year.

all the gold/silver bugs say that the end will be defined by a parabolic blow off.  i think they will be ground down the slow, painful way.

[notme]

all the gold/silver bugs say that the end will be defined by a parabolic blow off.  i think they will be ground down the slow, painful way.

+1

The gold market is a touch more mature than bitcoin markets.

[cypherdoc]

all the gold/silver bugs say that the end will be defined by a parabolic blow off.  i think they will be ground down the slow, painful way.

+1

The gold market is a touch more mature than bitcoin markets.

ya think?

[silverbox]

a collapse doesn't have to happen suddenly. 

Uh by defintion a collapse is sudden..

http://www.bing.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+collapse&qpvt=define+collapse&FORM=DTPDIA

Collapse:

1.  to fall down suddenly, generally as a result of damage, structural weakness, or lack of support
"A section of cliff had collapsed into the sea."

2.  fail abruptly: to fail or come to an end suddenly

[tvbcof]

a collapse doesn't have to happen suddenly. 

Uh by defintion a collapse is sudden..

http://www.bing.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+collapse&qpvt=define+collapse&FORM=DTPDIA

Collapse:

1.  to fall down suddenly, generally as a result of damage, structural weakness, or lack of support
"A section of cliff had collapsed into the sea."

2.  fail abruptly: to fail or come to an end suddenly

Elbow from the sky!

Unfortunately it seems that 'collapse' is a more appropriate description of Bitcoin's performance than that of PMs at the moment.  In a few more months, absent a pretty strong rally, we'll be looking at some pretty dismal yearly performance numbers for BTC.  If I'd have liquidated PMs to take a position in BTC, I'd be starting to become a pretty unhappy camper.

[molecular]

I like this thread, has it all: nuclear physics, market analysis, geopolitics,... so how to build a rocket?

[notme]

I like this thread, has it all: nuclear physics, market analysis, geopolitics,... so how to build a rocket?

1. Force liquidate all the overleveraged longs.  In order for a rally to be sustainable, we need to shake out these people.  Check
2. Maintain constant buying pressure without repeating the mistake above. Pending?
3. When the shorts get force liquidated, you have your "rocket". Possible

[silverbox]

I like this thread, has it all: nuclear physics, market analysis, geopolitics,... so how to build a rocket?

Lol, my dog hasn't got their yet, He needs his graduate edumacation, then on to Warheads and Delivery systems he will go.  My dog rocks!!!

[bitcool]

a collapse doesn't have to happen suddenly. 

Uh by defintion a collapse is sudden..

http://www.bing.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+collapse&qpvt=define+collapse&FORM=DTPDIA

Collapse:

1.  to fall down suddenly, generally as a result of damage, structural weakness, or lack of support
"A section of cliff had collapsed into the sea."

2.  fail abruptly: to fail or come to an end suddenly

LOL.

You showed the dictionary definition of "collapse" to a "doc" specialized in "financial risk analytics" ?

[silverbox]

Nope showed it to a guy calling for something to be happening that obviously isn't..

I don't care how many degree's you have on your wall and how many websites you have, I"m not jumping off the bridge with you

[Hunterbunter]

I like this thread, has it all: nuclear physics, market analysis, geopolitics,... so how to build a rocket?

1. Force liquidate all the overleveraged longs.  In order for a rally to be sustainable, we need to shake out these people.  Check
2. Maintain constant buying pressure without repeating the mistake above. Pending?
3. When the shorts get force liquidated, you have your "rocket". Possible

Isn't an uninhibited bull run only really possible when there are basically no bears?

Or will there always be bears?

[MatthewLM]

Tops of bubbles are largely identifiable from large buying interest, parabolic price action and when the asset is becomes largely owned. So it looks to me that AAPL is currently somewhere in a bubble and likely near the top without looking too much into it.

But is gold in a bubble? Does everyone own it? Has there been parabolic price action? Is there a lot of buying interest?

Look at the media, if they are all saying "buy gold", it's probably going to be extremely overbought and in some sort of bubble.

[cypherdoc]

a collapse doesn't have to happen suddenly.

Uh by defintion a collapse is sudden..

http://www.bing.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+collapse&qpvt=define+collapse&FORM=DTPDIA

Collapse:

1.  to fall down suddenly, generally as a result of damage, structural weakness, or lack of support
"A section of cliff had collapsed into the sea."

2.  fail abruptly: to fail or come to an end suddenly

LOL.

You showed the dictionary definition of "collapse" to a "doc" specialized in "financial risk analytics" ?

hey, it's hard enough to get the right direction on things let alone the magnitude.

but you guys are laughing prematurely.  it ain't over yet.

i'm betting on several more of those down $100 days coming in the near future.

edit:  i know several of you guys have been pumping pm mining stocks ever since i started the other Gold thread last August.  i told you to get out then.  how's that going?

[bitcool]

LOL.

You showed the dictionary definition of "collapse" to a "doc" specialized in "financial risk analytics" ?

hey, it's hard enough to get the right direction on things let alone the magnitude.

but you guys are laughing prematurely.  it ain't over yet.

i'm betting on several more of those down $100 days coming in the near future.

I am looking forward to it. I have a few sell-put, buy-call orders badly need to be filled.
Don't worry, it's all my play money.

[tvbcof]

hey, it's hard enough to get the right direction on things let alone the magnitude.

but you guys are laughing prematurely.  it ain't over yet.

i'm betting on several more of those down $100 days coming in the near future.

edit:  i know several of you guys have been pumping pm mining stocks ever since i started the other Gold thread.  how's that going?

Some of the keenest minds in the PM space say to expect significant volitility (and way higher prices.)  I've been waiting for $100 down days and they won't bother me.  I'll bail almost 100% when I see the signs of a bubble (see MathewLM), underlying structural changes influencing the value of PMs, or great difficulties associated with holding them (i.e., confiscation.)

To me PM mining stocks are just more pieces of paper and I've thus got close to zero interest in them.  I toyed with the idea of doing some short term gambling with them but then I became aware of Bitcoin (as a way to lose all my speculative investment.)  Bitcoin fits the speculation need nicely, and has the added benefit that my assets are completely within my control and the technology itself could change the world for the better in certain circumstances.

[bitcool]

To me PM mining stocks are just more pieces of paper and I've thus got close to zero interest in them.  I toyed with the idea of doing some short term gambling with them but then I became aware of Bitcoin (as a way to lose all my speculative investment.)  Bitcoin fits the speculation need nicely, and has the added benefit that my assets are completely within my control and the technology itself could change the world for the better in certain circumstances.

+1
With bitcoin, who needs mining stock?
Good PM mining companies are far and few between. There are too many crooks in this field, many are so-called "life style" companies, management team maintains their luxurious lifestyle at the expense of share holder values and stock dilution. 

[cypherdoc]

To me PM mining stocks are just more pieces of paper and I've thus got close to zero interest in them.  I toyed with the idea of doing some short term gambling with them but then I became aware of Bitcoin (as a way to lose all my speculative investment.)  Bitcoin fits the speculation need nicely, and has the added benefit that my assets are completely within my control and the technology itself could change the world for the better in certain circumstances.

+1
With bitcoin, who needs mining stock?
Good PM mining companies are far and few between. There are too many crooks in this field, many are so-called "life style" companies, management team maintains their luxurious lifestyle at the expense of share holder values and stock dilution.  

but i can tell you from my Gold Thread back in August that many of my critics, some of whom are showing up here again like Matthew, were heavily marketing pm mining stocks and they continue to do so.  i don't blame them b/c this is what the so called pundit experts are doing as well.  they've been destroyed.  and IMO they are leading the pm price down.

edit:  can u imagine if AAPL rolls from here and takes down stocks?  pm's will get smashed.

mining stocks and physical are linked.  they won't disconnect.