Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

i'd like to start a subscription service similar to the other 2 guys on this forum.  i would charge whatever they are (haven't looked) and would send out emails 3x per week with charts etc.  I could supplement here too if thats what ppl want.

it would be based on my cycle theory combined with my years of experience, intuition, and knowledge of financial markets.

i would follow Bitcoin, gold/silver, stocks, commodities, and bonds.  for anyone who's followed my recommendations since the 8/11 gold thread can see that i've called every major corner in stocks, gold/silver, miners, etc, since then.  this has been no small feat.

is there any interest in this?  either indicate it here or in a pm to me.

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[miscreanity]

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 3/28

Bitcoin 4.76   (down ~12%)

Gold 1670  (down ~1%)


I fail to see how a GIGANTIC 1% pull back is getting DESTROYED. 

Bitcoin's tiny economy will naturally be tossed around relative to financial pools; don't forget USD - even gold's market is miniature by comparison today.

Date		Value
03/13/12		80
03/28/12		79

Down ~1.2%

It's critical to keep in mind that we're near not only the end of the week, but the month, the quarter, and the delivery notification day for a major gold (paper) contract delivery month. The question that should be asked is: how much metal is in the warehouses compared to the number of delivery requests? Bitcoin has no such concerns yet, but the principles would apply exactly the same way if there were a similar contract settlement system.

Functionally: Bitcoin == Gold

What happens to one, happens to the other. Only when they compete directly will there be an inverse relationship. That situation will eventually arise when fiat fraud is marginalised, not before.

[silverbox]

The dollar index just measures the relative value of dollars to other currencies, the other currencies are all inflating also.  Its just a measure of the relative rates of change.  Lately its been going up a bit because they are printing Euro's faster then before.  But all the currencies in the basket are inflating fiat systems.  Gold can only rise against fiat that is being inflated.  

It always makes me wonder when peeps think that a rising dollar index means gold should go down, it doesn't.  It just means that someone else is printing even faster then the USD.

[miscreanity]

It always makes me wonder when peeps think that a rising dollar index means gold should go down, it doesn't.  It just means that someone else is printing even faster then the USD.

Which suggests gold is rising in other currency terms - globally. It's a ratcheting effect that rebounds back to the USD, resulting in higher gold prices denominated in dollars as well.

Direct relationships are just the surface; the majority of activity is indirect. As cypherdoc would point out, it is critical to think non-linearly.

Kitco has an excellent explanation, though it is limited only to gold.

[molecular]

i'd like to start a subscription service similar to the other 2 guys on this forum.  i would charge whatever they are (haven't looked) and would send out emails 3x per week with charts etc.  I could supplement here too if thats what ppl want.

it would be based on my cycle theory combined with my years of experience, intuition, and knowledge of financial markets.

i would follow Bitcoin, gold/silver, stocks, commodities, and bonds.  for anyone who's followed my recommendations since the 8/11 gold thread can see that i've called every major corner in stocks, gold/silver, miners, etc, since then.  this has been no small feat.

is there any interest in this?  either indicate it here or in a pm to me.

I'd be interested.

About pricing: the BTC 5 s3052 is charging seems too high for me and I think I'm not alone. There's quite a few people (me included) that cannot easily make this up even with good trading decisions.

Maybe you could consider to become the subscription service with the "best value per buck"? You'd surely have more followers with a low price.

[cypherdoc]

what if i just charged what waveaddict does?

[MatthewLM]

I was just told that the disaggregated Commitment of Traders report (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm) includes some double counting for the spread trades and can be a bit inaccurate. Does anyone have information on this or are the spread positions in the reportable categories accurate? I'm hoping someone might know a little more about this.

i'd like to start a subscription service similar to the other 2 guys on this forum.  i would charge whatever they are (haven't looked) and would send out emails 3x per week with charts etc.  I could supplement here too if thats what ppl want.

it would be based on my cycle theory combined with my years of experience, intuition, and knowledge of financial markets.

i would follow Bitcoin, gold/silver, stocks, commodities, and bonds.  for anyone who's followed my recommendations since the 8/11 gold thread can see that i've called every major corner in stocks, gold/silver, miners, etc, since then.  this has been no small feat.

is there any interest in this?  either indicate it here or in a pm to me.

I'm not saying you are being deceitful and I'm not trying to be deceitful but from what I remember you told everyone to short gold far too early. Do you have the links to the posts to back it up? I guess that's probably too much hard work to find those.

You say you have "experience, intuition, and knowledge of financial markets" but do you specifically in commodities? miscreanity seem to understand commodities quite well but you've not impressed me what what you have had to say. You appear to mostly look at charts.

Feel free to destroy what I've said.

[notme]

You don't think 620 its all time high, is marching on? 

What do you need to think its marching on then? lol

To stay there, not fall sharply afterwards.

tell me that you didn't capitulate and sell your SPXU.

Still long SPXU, and interested in a subscription service.  2.5 BTC a month would be affordable for me.  If nothing else, I'd drop my waveaddict subscription for yours.  Bitcoin is starting to get boring, and I've got to do something with my retirement account anyway.

[cypherdoc]

I was just told that the disaggregated Commitment of Traders report (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm) includes some double counting for the spread trades and can be a bit inaccurate. Does anyone have information on this or are the spread positions in the reportable categories accurate? I'm hoping someone might know a little more about this.

i'd like to start a subscription service similar to the other 2 guys on this forum.  i would charge whatever they are (haven't looked) and would send out emails 3x per week with charts etc.  I could supplement here too if thats what ppl want.

it would be based on my cycle theory combined with my years of experience, intuition, and knowledge of financial markets.

i would follow Bitcoin, gold/silver, stocks, commodities, and bonds.  for anyone who's followed my recommendations since the 8/11 gold thread can see that i've called every major corner in stocks, gold/silver, miners, etc, since then.  this has been no small feat.

is there any interest in this?  either indicate it here or in a pm to me.

I'm not saying you are being deceitful and I'm not trying to be deceitful but from what I remember you told everyone to short gold far too early. Do you have the links to the posts to back it up? I guess that's probably too much hard work to find those.

You say you have "experience, intuition, and knowledge of financial markets" but do you specifically in commodities? miscreanity seem to understand commodities quite well but you've not impressed me what what you have had to say. You appear to mostly look at charts.

Feel free to destroy what I've said.

i said to short gold 9d before the top here.  how is that "far too early"?: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

its had several devastating drops since then which one could've profited by shorting.  

i also made it publicly clear in that same thread when i sold silver at at $49 and at an avg price of $44 last May.

i also called the top in the pm miners here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg522374#msg522374

here was a nice appreciative poster back on 9/23/11: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg541769#msg541769

i also said to cover those same pm shorts as well as go long stocks here.  this is important to understand for those who insist on just connecting the points btwn 8/9/11 and now to say i was wrong: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg560220#msg560220

miscreanity has an incredible understanding of the commodity markets, i agree.  but here he had the decency and kindness to say some nice things about my calls from the old thread.  you were in the middle of those same discussions.  why do u see it differently?: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg810486#msg810486

its also important to understand other markets besides commodities as well.  understanding the criminal mind of a Wall St trader helps too.

i trade more technically and tend not to analyse the excruciating details of commodities like miscreanity.  there's just too much info to digest and you will never know it all.  i'm pretty good at most fundamentals though.  but if you are a fundamentals type trader or don't believe in technicals, my service would not be for you.

[MatthewLM]

i said to short gold 9d before the top here.  how is that "far too early"?:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

Considering the massive volatility and the fact gold was no where near the top at the time, I have to say yes. It didn't drop back down until September. So it was too early to short.

[cypherdoc]

i said to short gold 9d before the top here.  how is that "far too early"?:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

Considering the massive volatility and the fact gold was no where near the top at the time, I have to say yes. It didn't drop back down until September. So it was too early to short.

9 days early in a 11 yr bull mkt for gold and thats a bad call?  really?

silver has dumped way more.  do i get credit for that?  any comments on the other calls?

[piotr_n]

silver has dumped way more.  do i get credit for that?  any comments on the other calls?

You're a genius.
I bet the silver you sold at $49 was a paper one, wasn't it?

Anyway, good luck with in the future - you're going to need it in the paper market.
IMO, pretty much soon...

[cypherdoc]

silver has dumped way more.  do i get credit for that?  any comments on the other calls?

You're a genius.
I bet the silver you sold at $49 was a paper one, wasn't it?

Anyway, good luck with in the future!
IMO you're going to need it in the paper market. Pretty much soon...

no it wasn't.  i've made it very clear in many posts that it was physical.  i truly believe in what i say.

[bitcool]

ohooh, some smart guy and CNBC finally got this figured out  

Gold Price ‘Too Low’: Goldman Sachs

“By holding more gold central banks are insuring themselves against their own profligacy. They print money. The price of gold goes up. And if they hold a lot of the stuff in their vaults, they are the big winners from the rise in price,” Matthew Lynn, founder of Strategy Economics, wrote in a research note.

“If you can pull it off – and there isn’t anything to stop you – that sounds like an easy way to make a living.”

[bitcool]

silver has dumped way more.  do i get credit for that?  any comments on the other calls?

You're a genius.
I bet the silver you sold at $49 was a paper one, wasn't it?

Anyway, good luck with in the future!
IMO you're going to need it in the paper market. Pretty much soon...

no it wasn't.  i've made it very clear in many posts that it was physical.  i truly believe in what i say.

but,

Disclosure:  i do have a huge short position in bullion in place.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg443129#msg443129

How did you pull that off? In my mind there's only one group of people that can have a "short position in bullion" -- miners. All other shorts are just paper shorts.

[piotr_n]

silver has dumped way more.  do i get credit for that?  any comments on the other calls?

You're a genius.
I bet the silver you sold at $49 was a paper one, wasn't it?

Anyway, good luck with in the future!
IMO you're going to need it in the paper market. Pretty much soon...

no it wasn't.  i've made it very clear in many posts that it was physical.  i truly believe in what i say.

Good for you.
Let's just wait and see...

And in the meantime, there is no force in the universe that would convince me to turn my life savings into a paper money.
I'd rather turn them into bitcoins.. but PMs are still more reliable than bitcoin - you can touch them, trade without electricity and they have been well tested as currencies for ages.
While our current currencies, all around the world, are being sucked into a vortex of their own "value", which is in fact just a big black hole of debt...
If you don't understand this inevitable, the only possible end, how much can you predict tomorrow?

[cypherdoc]

silver has dumped way more.  do i get credit for that?  any comments on the other calls?

You're a genius.
I bet the silver you sold at $49 was a paper one, wasn't it?

Anyway, good luck with in the future!
IMO you're going to need it in the paper market. Pretty much soon...

no it wasn't.  i've made it very clear in many posts that it was physical.  i truly believe in what i say.

but,

Disclosure:  i do have a huge short position in bullion in place.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg443129#msg443129

How did you pull that off? In my mind there's only one group of people that can have a "short position in bullion" -- miners. All other shorts are just paper shorts.

read the post carefully.  at the time of that post i had sold my bullion at the local coin dealer.

i also put in place short positions using DZZ and ZSL which are the double lever bear etf's on the gold price.  one can do both you know.

[MatthewLM]

i said to short gold 9d before the top here.  how is that "far too early"?:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

Considering the massive volatility and the fact gold was no where near the top at the time, I have to say yes. It didn't drop back down until September. So it was too early to short.

9 days early in a 11 yr bull mkt for gold and thats a bad call?  really?

You'll receive praise from me if and only if the bull market for gold actually ends and gold crashes significantly as you state it will. It hasn't happened yet. We will see in hindsight. What we've seen so far is massive volatility and no crash that would have made gold an excellent short trade from the 9th of August.

Maybe it turns out you have been over 7+ months late for this crash of yours? Would you like to give a time span for your prediction gold will crash? Also some rough price target instead of vague terms would put no one in confusion. I seem to remember you were expecting gold to go below $1000? My memory is terrible, sorry.

[notme]

i said to short gold 9d before the top here.  how is that "far too early"?:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

Considering the massive volatility and the fact gold was no where near the top at the time, I have to say yes. It didn't drop back down until September. So it was too early to short.

9 days early in a 11 yr bull mkt for gold and thats a bad call?  really?

You'll receive praise from me if and only if the bull market for gold actually ends and gold crashes significantly as you state it will. It hasn't happened yet. We will see in hindsight. What we've seen so far is massive volatility and no crash that would have made gold an excellent short trade from the 9th of August.

Maybe it turns out you have been over 7+ months late for this crash of yours? Would you like to give a time span for your prediction gold will crash? Also some rough price target instead of vague terms would put no one in confusion. I seem to remember you were expecting gold to go below $1000? My memory is terrible, sorry.

It takes a long time to turn a tanker.  The gold market is the largest tanker one can try to ride.

[cypherdoc]

Matthew, i'm not looking for your praise.  it doesn't have to crash as long as it keeps going in the direction i think it will.  you trolled me hard in the other thread too.  and thats ok.  you've got alot of company here

you guys should hope my subscription service takes off so i can take my views private away from this public forum.  there's nothing that heats up ppls ire more than an anti gold/silver thread i've found.  to invest successfully however one needs to be dispassionate and not take things for granted.  there are no givens.

but this thread isn't just about gold/silver.  its about making the right calls in the general economy of stocks, bonds, commodities and Bitcoin as well and planning for the future.  investing in gold and Bitcoin require an understanding of how those assets work too.

i've got a few of you interested already.  thats plenty for me as all i care about is being recognized for my work. 

the service will be 2.5 btc's per month and i'll start it up 4/1 on Sunday.  for those interested pm me your email and i'll send everyone individual addresses to make your pmt. 

its not a big deal.  investing is a hobby for me that i spend a great deal of time on and enjoy and i have enough wealth accumulated where i just like the challenge of trying to get it right.