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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805892 times)
tvbcof
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April 06, 2012, 09:38:33 PM
 #541



Currently, the only place you would be able to find...


ql;bdfr  (Quite Long, But Did Finally Read...and an interesting read it was.)

Here's a thought experiment that I am playing around with:

Seems to me that with some effort, the USD-as-global-reserve-currency might (or might not) be able to go on for some time, particularly if we take Iran's Khuzestan region.  But there will come when it is no longer sustainable.

We (the US) are the world's gold kings at this point, particularly since there is very little chance that we will give Germany's gold back (the 'Marshal Plan' may have been a bit more involved than is typically documented in the history books me thinks.)  If we went to a 'gold standard' monetary system (which would, of course, be a transient thing) at this point, the US (and our hangers on) would on top for a while.

The pace of gold outflow toward Asia is increasing as is native accumulation through production in Asia.  As time goes by, our 'gold advantage' dwindles.

For this reason, a logical strategy might be to get rid of the current USD reserve currency regime in a controlled demo somewhat prematurely.  We then end up fighting the battles with more control and direction than if we try to milk the current regime until the bitter end.


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April 06, 2012, 11:15:17 PM
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Taxes don't bother me as much as they seem to bother a lot of people.  I guess it's in part 'cuz I'm a lib.  If I made some bucks on PMs, I did so in a society which facilitated it so I'm happy enough to support that society.

It bothers me that my tax dollars are going toward killing innocent people in other countries.  It bothers me that corporations buy politicians so that a) they can shirk their own responsibility for taxes and b) they can use _my_ tax dollars to fund illegal wars which benefit them much more than they benefit me.  But, at the end of the day, not paying my taxes is a counterproductive way to 'change the system' and is likely to bring me trouble which I don't need

Certainly - from a different view, taxes are just bills for services rendered. What you mention about shirking responsibility and misappropriation of tax funds digs to the heart of the matter: a great deal of the global cultural mindset has shifted from one believing that, instead of taking part in a mutually-beneficial arrangement and paying for services we find valuable, we are obligated to pay no matter what quality of service is provided - or even if that service is detrimental to us. That trivial semantic twist was enough to create servile behaviour over a few generations; a conservative or liberal stance makes no difference in this matter.

This is just my objective observation: the final sentence (bolded) is very similar to battered wife syndrome. Continuous (financial) abuse and beatings are tolerated because the repercussions of fighting back (fines, imprisonment) are worse than the existing level of suffering.

What the abused usually doesn't realise is that the abuse almost invariably escalates over time to a point where serious injury or death (theft, enslavement) becomes a very real possibility. If the victim quietly seeks outside help, there are many sources of support, both to escape from the negative situation and to remain safe afterward.

I understand the objections to this, including familial obligations, job security, asset ownership, etc. Regrettably, these are the very things that are preyed upon by greed. Owning a house means you have an investment in where you are - it's very unlikely you'll simply up and move because you're attached to it financially and sentimentally. The same goes for family - unless every member is physically capable of leaving and agrees to do so, it can be difficult to move. Jobs or careers have the same effect - there are many that can't be taken with you, or have no equivalent elsewhere.

Yet the consequences of staying can be revolting, if not absolutely horrific. For those who can find freedom, the future is far brighter than that of those left behind. I personally would rather be free to grow than trapped in a gilded cage, at almost any cost.

I also have interest in keeping some of my PMs off-shore.  The difficulties I perceive here are that I have little confidence that a financial institution in a foreign country would put my interests first in the event of a crisis or catastrophe.  I could easily see them drilling all foreign owned safe deposit boxes, for instance.  Particularly if that country happened to end up allied with the US and the US issued instructions to do so.  I am not blessed with any trustworthy private partners to operate on my behalf in a foreign land.

The bolded section is key. Ideally, you'd be able to do the legwork to find reputable private storage locations (like monthly storage lockers, not safe deposit boxes) in stable regions that have a solid respect of private property. Since that's unrealistic for most, some custodial compromises have to be made. At the very least, having just a handful of gold and/or silver outside of the country you're located in could easily be the difference between living on the streets and getting back on your feet.

A secondary issues is that I doubt it would be practical to travel freely in a situation that I am trying to protect against.  So, my stash might be in Switzerland, but my ass cannot get beyond TSA to go get it.

Absolutely, although the limitations on travel will probably be more restrictive of what you take with you than being able to move yourself. Even if travel quotas are instituted, you might have to wait a month or even a year to leave, but you'll have something on the outside waiting for you. Soon, it may be very unlikely that you'll be able to take any gold or silver with you when crossing borders; imagine the horror of precious metal confiscation by customs vs. the comparatively simple struggle of getting to where you stashed it.

I'll note again that one of the HUGE draws of Bitcoin, to me, was that it would allow a transfer of PMs between two mutually interested but non-trusting parties in different parts of the world.  That is, a transfer of, say, KRs could be ratcheted in using Bitcoin while keeping the transfer safe from a high percentage loss and relatively private from prying eyes.

Probably the way to pull it off would be for the principles to travel to the respective foreign counties while leaving their stashes in the care of a local trusted individual.  The transfer then gets ratcheted in, and the principles drifts off to do whatever they are going to do with their newly transferred loot.

Yup! Why wait to scale the buying, unless you've got several hundred ounces of gold? Convert before leaving, make your move, then withdraw at your destination and exchange for metals again (or keep some/most as Bitcoins). One of my ridiculously long replies in the Gold: I smell a trap thread touched on this, and I'm sure others have as well.

How many gold coins do you need to carry with you to start a new life elsewhere? If living expenses keep deflating, a single ounce of gold may come to be an average person's life savings. For now, at almost $2,000 per coin, a suitcase would easily hold a hundred ounces or so. Just make sure you've got wheels on it and hope you don't get stopped at a border. The latter problem applies to paper money too. That's where Bitcoin comes in.

The risk that needs to be managed is with the exchanges. It may be possible that some of the major exchanges *cough* Gox *cough* might freeze Bitcoin holdings at the bequest of certain governments *cough* US *cough*. System D-style exchange transactions would definitely help.
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April 06, 2012, 11:17:06 PM
 #543

Here's a thought experiment that I am playing around with:

Bingo!

"Controlled chaos is better than uncontrolled chaos."
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April 07, 2012, 12:44:10 AM
 #544


It's funny you mention taxes - that's effectively a premium paid to government (funding your own oppression?). If you have to pay a 28% tax on an inert chunk of metal that doesn't produce anything, it suggests that the price according to gov't is at least a third higher than official valuation. Of course, that might only be the tax rate necessary to keep the oil bill current. Have you noticed the scramble to close tax haven loopholes in recent years? Watch for governments to bring precious metal into the fold with incentives like they're doing with corporate profits held overseas, then raise taxes...

"Sure, we'll throw out all the back taxes on those billions we wanted - now just step into my lair... closer..."
One interesting development is the legislation at state level, gold silver have become legal tenders in Utah, South Carolina is not far behind.  

I guess one option will be moving to Utah, spend your gold silver as legal tender. No sale, no tax, correct?
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April 07, 2012, 02:16:25 PM
 #545

Mike Maloney on silver manipulation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB_aZo5emio

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April 07, 2012, 03:36:02 PM
 #546

Blythe Masters on silver manipulation:  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/blythe-masters-blogosphere-silver-manipulation-its-gold-axed-clients-and-doing-wrong-thing   Tongue
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April 07, 2012, 07:56:06 PM
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Jesse (Arthur) on Blythe Masters on silver manipulation. Smiley
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April 07, 2012, 08:10:33 PM
 #548

And who is JP Morgan "hedging" silver for? Doesn't add up.

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April 08, 2012, 04:02:02 AM
 #549

One interesting development is the legislation at state level, gold silver have become legal tenders in Utah, South Carolina is not far behind.   

I guess one option will be moving to Utah, spend your gold silver as legal tender. No sale, no tax, correct?

Interesting for the element of resistance but still very risky, as you remain in the confines of the federal gov't. It's like doing your banking at an uptown branch of Citi instead of the downtown branch: you're still banking with Citi.

This does have the potential to eventually cause fragmentation among major nation-states, though. Can you imagine a United States without Texas, a Japan without Shikoku, or a China without Taiwan? Oh, wait... Smiley

Mike Maloney on silver manipulation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB_aZo5emio

Wow - thanks for sharing that. I had to watch it twice because I was distracted by Lauren's legs...

It took me almost 2 years to piece together all of the mechanics and potential consequences, and here everything is presented within 20 minutes! There's literally nothing to add.

And who is JP Morgan "hedging" silver for? Doesn't add up.

Don't be coy Tongue

The US (bank-owned) government, likely in coordination with a number of other (bank-owned) governments and (bank-owned) international organisations. Banks are, after all, the epitome of concentrated power - with governments as their tools of control and manipulation.
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April 08, 2012, 03:43:17 PM
 #550

What I mean is hedging isn't manipulation so it's all lies.

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April 08, 2012, 04:25:11 PM
 #551

naturally i don't agree with any of these assessments.

in fact, gold/silver are breaking down exactly as i have predicted according to a well defined cyclical analysis described in depth in my newsletter.  if you don't understand this you're missing half the argument.
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April 08, 2012, 04:39:13 PM
 #552

The manipulation is staring you in your face, it's hard to disagree with it.

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April 08, 2012, 05:23:19 PM
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in fact, paper gold/silver are breaking down exactly as i have predicted according to a well defined cyclical analysis described in depth in my newsletter.  if you don't understand this you're missing half the argument.

FTFY Smiley
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April 08, 2012, 07:07:02 PM
 #554

whats staring you in the face is the breakdown in the price of gold/silver; especially bad in the miners.

you can't possibly know all the fundamental factors involved that go into the price of gold. 

this is why technical analysis is so important.
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April 08, 2012, 07:09:53 PM
 #555

in fact, paper gold/silver are breaking down exactly as i have predicted according to a well defined cyclical analysis described in depth in my newsletter.  if you don't understand this you're missing half the argument.

FTFY Smiley


like i asked the other day; i really need a new router and i'd like to sell 1 physical gold ounce for what i believe is the real physical price of gold which i think is around $2400 right now.  could you please direct me to the place where i can sell for that price and get USD cash?  i need this right away.
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April 08, 2012, 07:37:50 PM
 #556

Quote
you can't possibly know all the fundamental factors involved that go into the price of gold. 

this is why technical analysis is so important.

You can know what you can and that's better than blindness.

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April 08, 2012, 08:41:35 PM
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...
But, at the end of the day, not paying my taxes is a counterproductive way to 'change the system' and is likely to bring me trouble which I don't need
...
This is just my objective observation: the final sentence (bolded) is very similar to battered wife syndrome. Continuous (financial) abuse and beatings are tolerated because the repercussions of fighting back (fines, imprisonment) are worse than the existing level of suffering.
...

This analogy is both amusing and not inappropriate.

I would, however, note that one is more likely to succeed by knowing their enemy and choosing the time and place of a conflict.


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April 08, 2012, 09:19:48 PM
 #558

there was a particularly bad piece of news on Bitcoin that came out on 5/19 that i had no way of knowing would happen.  very sorry silverbox.


you can't possibly know all the fundamental factors involved that go into the price of gold.  

this is why technical analysis is so important.

 Wink

An interesting audio interview: Why are people so eager to make predictions?  because there's no consequence for making wrong predictions.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/08/09/pm-freakonomics-why-are-we-so-bad-at-predicting-the-future/

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April 08, 2012, 09:38:52 PM
 #559

I am looking forward to seeing more and more (real & false) prophets start using this "Prediction Registry", if they dare.
  http://www.davidbrin.com/predictionsregistry.htm

Interestingly, time stamping predictions is one thing bitcoin blockchain will be good at.
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April 08, 2012, 10:42:17 PM
 #560

there was a particularly bad piece of news on Bitcoin that came out on 5/19 that i had no way of knowing would happen.  very sorry silverbox.


you can't possibly know all the fundamental factors involved that go into the price of gold.  

this is why technical analysis is so important.

 Wink

An interesting audio interview: Why are people so eager to make predictions?  because there's no consequence for making wrong predictions.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/08/09/pm-freakonomics-why-are-we-so-bad-at-predicting-the-future/


Which is why I said I don't day trade because of these one day surprises.  I use technical analysis for intermediate term trades that can take months.


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