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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806149 times)
cypherdoc
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March 29, 2012, 06:59:24 PM
 #441

look at the phrasing Summers uses.  he understands Bitcoin.  i count 4x he uses the term friction.  thats a Bitcoin term as far as i'm concerned:

the processes of commerce changing fundamentally when people are able to store value on their cell phones, when people are able to take payments digitally with minimal friction or red tape.

Square's innovation is fundamentally about making it easy for a piano teacher or tutor to get paid, or reducing the friction involved in using a car service. I was excited about the idea of financial innovation for the benefit of regular people.

Today, money can get transferred from any part of the planet to any other part of the planet, essentially instantaneously. I think for the most part that's a positive thing. People can see prices more easily, they can act on their desires more efficiently; friction is rarely a good thing.

Conceptually, money can exist without a central authority. The United States only got a central bank in 1913, and we were a country with a functioning economy before 1913. There are also private issuers of things that function very much like money—think about Crimson Cash here at Harvard, or American Express traveler's checks.

Bitcoin is one of many innovative technologies that are going to seek to take friction out and provide services to people.

Everyone thought New Coke would be better than old Coca-Cola and take things by storm, and [former IBM CEO] Tom Watson thought there was only demand in the world for 10 or 12 computers. And so I think history teaches that you can't really forecast which kinds of innovations will ultimately become networked and get to scale

 I think many of the basic principles underlying money that economists understand—that if you create too much of it you will get rising prices, for example—actually are constant even as technology does change.

I don't think there's any question that it was broken—otherwise we wouldn't have had the kind of financial crisis we've had from 2007, which still has carry-over effects right now.

Certainly no one's fully satisfied with how the economy is performing, but if you look at the six months from the fall of 2008 to the spring of 2009, they show deterioration on almost every economic statistic more rapid than during the Depression—the first six months after the fall of 1929.
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miscreanity
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March 29, 2012, 07:13:17 PM
 #442

Even with unlimited fiat, maintaining unrelenting pressure on gold and the mining shares is unsustainable in the long run, especially while simultaneously propping up the broader equity markets. Letting go of support in stocks would bring the house down on the miners. Whether that's the intended effect, and whether it will work, remains to be seen. Add in the algorithmic antics with marginal human investor participation and you once again have the makings of a grand illusion.

Regardless, when you hit granite, even a nuclear blast may not be capable of doing a huge amount of damage.

I think it makes sense for Summers to view Bitcoin objectively, particularly since it can be analysed in an almost completely academic manner. He's no fool, nor are many of the others in power. Perspective can skew decisions, clouding and shielding the ivory tower from the effects of non-linear system dynamics that can't be easily observed. Therefore what they don't know, or refuse to acknowledge, will hurt them.

These kind of peoples' existence is basically to ensure control and order. If the methods being used to maintain the status quo are being threatened, it's time to modify the methods. They've been doing a spectacular job of that. Few today think gold will continue its ascent; even fewer are even aware of Bitcoin, much less how it works and what its potential is. Preparing in the shadows where nobody is aware makes the job of maintaining control easier.

Here's a tin-foil nutcase scenario for you: Satoshi was CIA/NSA (take your pick of shadowy organisations) and introduced the Bitcoin system with banks and government having full knowledge of its potential and statistical variance for how it would propagate. Since they have foreknowledge, it would be a sure thing to hold the majority of Bitcoins in existence while slowly restraining its growth via constant pressure; the same strategy as is seen in gold/silver/etc.

For the above situation, the resultant factors would be a refreshed economic structure allowing the world to reinvigorate its productive capacity and an acceleration in speed of transactions. In addition, it would allow the status quo to persist during a paradigm transition. Most of the work subsequent to introduction will be done voluntarily, and any internal divisions would likely leave the leadership in a position of apparent weakness, at which point new ones may emerge. The new leadership could be composed of savvy individuals demonstrating proficiency and maybe bringing a powerful innovation that placates and ingratiates them to the community, or sleeper(s) already part of the community.

Overall, it may not even matter - the Bitcoin paradigm and decentralisation of most elements in human society could prove too great of a transition to be properly harnessed.
miscreanity
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March 29, 2012, 07:26:12 PM
 #443

look at the phrasing Summers uses.  he understands Bitcoin.  i count 4x he uses the term friction.  thats a Bitcoin term as far as i'm concerned:

I noticed his usage of term as well, and you're right - he apparently does get it. Any number of bankers, especially quants, should be able to quickly grasp the potential. The question is whether he's truly behind the technology as a beneficial force or has a disingenuous motive.

That takes us further into the speculative realm, questioning whether Bitcoin was introduced as an experiment, a loss-leader, or false-flag which may just have taken on more of a life of its own than expected. Kind of like that Interwebz thing. And this is how Hollywood scripts begin... Smiley
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March 29, 2012, 07:44:55 PM
 #444

The sky is falling, the sky is falling  Roll Eyes
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March 29, 2012, 08:15:07 PM
 #445


...

Summers joins an interesting list of very bright and well connected individuals who are clearly aware of, and surprisingly circumspect about, Bitcoin.  I'm tempted to believe that they would not mind seeing an increase in the value of their own stashes, but I'm probably just projecting.


While I'm here, let me clarify or correct my statement.  I would expect a person like Summers to be more turned on by Bitcoin's ability to help transfer wealth rather than store or increase it.  Just like Rickards statement that Bitcoin is a good exchange currency and a poor reserve currency.

i've been meaning to expound on this; if Summers knows about Bitcoin, then Obama knows, and every other political leader in the Western World.  and i have to believe every banker since money is their business.

i find it naive when i hear so many folks around here thinking bankers or our politicians have never even heard about Bitcoin.

That I doubt.  I would not expect Summers to discuss Bitcoin with Obama or anyone else besides a close group of like-minded friends.  Obama is certainly got a lot more on his plate than some fringe internet related money thing and even if he did not, it is an unusual person who takes an interest in Bitcoin anyway.  I know this from experience in the tech sector.

I suspect that a handful of people (e.g., Summers, Rickards) have a certain combination of understanding just how fucked we are with our current monetary system and understand the likely trajectories, and an interest in technology that allows them to have their interest sparked by Bitcoin.  I just wonder if and how much they actually play with it.


and if everybody knows about Bitcoin now, there must be a significant portion of ppl that think like us, and that ultimately will have to change your outlook on its prospects.


I remain shocked that Bitcoin has not 'caught fire' more than it has and the interest has not already translated into lower BTC/USD ratios.  Time will tell if this ever transpires.  My second best hypothesis is that those who are interested in Bitcoin's true strengths simply have no compelling need to put them to use as this time.  I'm in that camp personally.  (My first best hypothesis is that I am simply wrong in my estimates of how the currency would be used, when, and by whom.)


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March 29, 2012, 08:16:16 PM
 #446

AAPL pulled back a bit.
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March 29, 2012, 10:25:24 PM
 #447

look at the phrasing Summers uses.  he understands Bitcoin.  i count 4x he uses the term friction.  thats a Bitcoin term as far as i'm concerned:

I noticed his usage of term as well, and you're right - he apparently does get it. Any number of bankers, especially quants, should be able to quickly grasp the potential. The question is whether he's truly behind the technology as a beneficial force or has a disingenuous motive.

I am hoping this friction does not increases with the size of bitcoin economy, the era of zero transaction fee is over, the number of transactions is getting bigger. So far the most effective way to counter transaction spamming seems to be increasing transaction fee, with the cost of increasing frictions in btc system.
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March 29, 2012, 10:49:54 PM
 #448

I am hoping this friction does not increases with the size of bitcoin economy, the era of zero transaction fee is over, the number of transactions is getting bigger. So far the most effective way to counter transaction spamming seems to be increasing transaction fee, with the cost of increasing frictions in btc system.
Friction will certainly increase but as long as it's significantly lower than with competing methods, Bitcoin will have an advantage. Bitcoin mining is such a highly competitive market and transactions themselves are fairly cheap to process, as long as that is true we will have very low friction by any standards. However it could be that in the very long run (10+ years) Bitcoin could be threatened by a PoS/PoW hybrid cryptocurrency that manages to create a more secure network with lower fees. Or perhaps Bitcoin itself will switch to something like that eventually, who knows.

Denarium - Leading Physical Bitcoin Manufacturer - Special Xmas deals now live!
miscreanity
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March 30, 2012, 03:17:37 AM
 #449

I am hoping this friction does not increases with the size of bitcoin economy, the era of zero transaction fee is over, the number of transactions is getting bigger. So far the most effective way to counter transaction spamming seems to be increasing transaction fee, with the cost of increasing frictions in btc system.

My impression was that Summers was referring to Bitcoin reducing current levels of friction. There will certainly be some increase over time, but it should still be far less grinding than present systems, and for far longer. There should also be an alt-chain called KY-Coin to go along with CosbyCoin.

Big Bitcoin rally by late June? I bet it coincides with a gold/silver rally like in 2011.

Edit: what Technomage said Smiley
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March 30, 2012, 12:11:20 PM
 #450


http://www.cnbc.com/id/46901357

I have been looking for signs Bitcoin assuming the role of international currency, responding to news event like this.

So far, I see none.
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March 30, 2012, 01:00:59 PM
 #451


http://www.cnbc.com/id/46901357

I have been looking for signs Bitcoin assuming the role of international currency, responding to news event like this.

So far, I see none.


The main reason is a lack of exposure.  I don't know what to do about it, though.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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March 30, 2012, 02:34:16 PM
 #452


miscreanity
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March 30, 2012, 04:01:56 PM
 #453


Sorry, doc - gold is just now getting up to operating temperature. Only the blind are surprised.
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March 30, 2012, 04:38:04 PM
 #454

They need that iPhAd!!
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March 30, 2012, 06:43:48 PM
 #455

Wanna bet aapl bounces up off 600?
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March 30, 2012, 07:14:09 PM
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Sorry, doc - gold is just now getting up to operating temperature. Only the blind are surprised.

I don't think I have been blind, but I am surprised.

To be honest, I am a little worried.
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March 30, 2012, 08:12:41 PM
 #457


Sorry, doc - gold is just now getting up to operating temperature. Only the blind are surprised.

I don't think I have been blind, but I am surprised.

To be honest, I am a little worried.


I'm a bit surprised too.  If this many people have this favorable impression of gold relative to other forms of wealth management then I am starting to get concerned.  OTOH, if the same survey was done in India, China, etc, the numbers would likely be much higher.

On the plus side, it does indicate an increasing potential for a significant panic and stampede if/when there are supply-side problems for physical.  Timing things to capitalize on such an event while avoiding the ill effects of the inevitable capital control mechanisms implemented by TPTB will be, I'm suspecting, quite tricky.  Could be Bitcoin to the rescue at that point.  Hard to know.


miscreanity
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March 30, 2012, 08:45:18 PM
 #458

To be honest, I am a little worried.

You should be. I'm terrified. Gold exposes the darkness and secrets within a society.

After Obama is re-elected in the US, he no longer has any obligations. The gloves come off and the American government reveals itself for what it has become - an unequivocal, fascist tyranny. Own property in the US? It may not be yours for much longer.

Even Jim Sinclair has put his home up for sale in what I suspect is a move to make Tanzania his permanent residence. Especially in light of a recent post he made which stated the following (emphasis mine):

Quote from: Jim Sinclair
According to Dean Harry Schultz, the way to live your life involves the following:

- Money in one country
- Citizenship in a different country
- Body in another country where neither your citizenship nor money resides.

I have resisted this sage advice from Harry for many years knowing that the day might come when his genius proves true.

That day has come.

Seriously consider this advice.

Respectfully,
Jim

The sad part is that the media still mocks gold and misdirects attention. That sows confusion, which leads to inaction by the vast majority - even some of those who understand how the system works. For Americans reading this: get out before 2013.

I think Bitcoin has a better chance of rising soonest in Africa, Oceania, Southeast Asia, or South America. Other regions would probably have to experience severe hardship before their populations are forced to do some introspection and consider alternative systems.
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March 30, 2012, 09:49:41 PM
 #459

Honestly... it doesn't bother you guys that we just bounced off the bullish trend-line that has been going since Oct '11?

You guys are still short?
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March 30, 2012, 10:01:26 PM
 #460

To be honest, I am a little worried.

You should be. I'm terrified. Gold exposes the darkness and secrets within a society.

...<paraphrase: 'get out of the US while the getting is good.' >


I've thought about splitting over the years.  My current philosophy is that the US is probably going to be so hated around the world that I would end up a stranger in a land which I didn't understand and surrounded by people who would be glad to see me dead.  Probably a better quality of life laying low in the US since I understand the culture.

If I were a billionaire and could afford 150,000 acre ranch or two in Paraguay with a garrison of security personell (like both Bush Jr. and Bush Sr. as I understand things) then it might be a different story.  I'm not.


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