[XMR] Monero Speculation

[bitebits]

I speculate that:

- Aminorex returns at 0.018 (or 25$).
- rpietila returns between 0.006 and 0.004


Both have been overly bullish / bearish, at least for the short term. Who will we see return first?

[Hueristic]

I speculate that:

- Aminorex returns at 0.018 (or 25$).
- rpietila returns between 0.006 and 0.004


Who will we see first?

rpietila, but he'll be back talking his book again forgetting his last call was way off again as usual. But I would say we will see .018 before .004 again.

[kurious]

I speculate that:

- Aminorex returns at 0.018 (or 25$).
- rpietila returns between 0.006 and 0.004


Who will we see first?

rpietila, but he'll be back talking his book again forgetting his last call was way off again as usual. But I would say we will see .018 before .004 again.

I hope so...  We could see a December low go Risto's direction - but I can't see 0.004. Maybe a nasty dip if BTC sorts itself out and breaks 750 (looking unlikely now, but still possible)....   

Either way, no .018 this year, IMHO (the GUI won't take us that high when it eventually arrives) but I still think Spring will be good - and if I had to pick one of these targets to be hit first next year - I'd agree it's .018.

I'd like to see Aminorex back, I will forgive the 'Anything under 0.018 is a steal' stuff. I'll forgive Risto for his 0.006 - 0.004 prediction too. I don't think he was in a good place, to be fair.

Both might be wishing they hadn't spoken, but I miss these big guns. I'd probably never have gotten into XMR so early if it wasn't for them.

[KeyJockey]

...I'd probably never have gotten into XMR so early if it wasn't for them.

Same here... I miss Aminorex's posts even just for entertainment value 

As for Risto's 0.004 call awhile ago, I don't usually try to "trade" (just HODL) but on that one I'd decided to take a shot, and follow his advice, and I got totally OUT around 0.007 (I think it was), on that last downward-trend (which never did *quite* hit 0.004 did it?  I think we had, what, like 0.0055?).

But it was too painful not having ANY Monero anymore!  I hated the feeling!  Like going thru some drug withdrawal! LOL

I just couldn't stand the idea of maybe missing out on the next increase while waiting for that 0.004 bottom to come... so I got back IN again with the same amount, at around 0.006 and now just gonna stick back to the simple HODL philosophy again.

Trying to "time" this stuff is too hard, too stressful.  Much respect to you guys who can do it, but I've come to conclusion I can't handle it, LOL

SO... long story short: for what it's worth, even if Risto was "wrong" on that 0.004 call, I personally still made a little on it, dumping out at 0.007 and buying back same number of Monero at 0.006. 

And here we are now, back again at 0.010... so, it's all good 

[kurious]

...I'd probably never have gotten into XMR so early if it wasn't for them.

Same here... I miss Aminorex's posts even just for entertainment value 

As for Risto's 0.004 call awhile ago, I don't usually try to "trade" (just HODL) but on that one I'd decided to take a shot, and follow his advice, and I got totally OUT around 0.007 (I think it was), on that last downward-trend (which never did *quite* hit 0.004 did it?  I think we had, what, like 0.0055?).

But it was too painful not having ANY Monero anymore!  I hated the feeling!  Like going thru some drug withdrawal! LOL

I just couldn't stand the idea of maybe missing out on the next increase while waiting for that 0.004 bottom to come... so I got back IN again with the same amount, at around 0.006 and now just gonna stick back to the simple HODL philosophy again.

Trying to "time" this stuff is too hard, too stressful.  Much respect to you guys who can do it, but I've come to conclusion I can't handle it, LOL

SO... long story short: for what it's worth, even if Risto was "wrong" on that 0.004 call, I personally still made a little on it, dumping out at 0.007 and buying back same number of Monero at 0.006. 

And here we are now, back again at 0.010... so, it's all good 

Agree on Aminorex, one erudite guy that is...   And above 0.01 is better than I expected, so no complaints here. 

I am not sure it will hold all the way to Christmas, so yes, hold - but don't be afraid to place a few bids underneath, just in case...

Personally, if I do pick a little up on a dip, I immediately set up a sell a little higher for most of this 'play money' as it goes back up and aim to keep increasing the stash a little and cost average down.  It's a nice way to play and over time as XMR drifts up and down, you scalp a little here and there (if you're patient and not too greedy) without risking your position too much - and it adds up.  XMR oscillates way more than BTC, so 5-10% here and there on a small stash of play coins is not impossible....

[TrueCryptonaire]

Trading volume is down and in the mean time the daily trading range seems to get tighten. Soon there will be a breakup or breakdown. The odds for both are almost 50 % and what is left will be left for stability.

[mambamanagement]

Trading volume is down and in the mean time the daily trading range seems to get tighten. Soon there will be a breakup or breakdown. The odds for both are almost 50 % and what is left will be left for stability.

does your gut say up or down?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Trading volume is down and in the mean time the daily trading range seems to get tighten. Soon there will be a breakup or breakdown. The odds for both are almost 50 % and what is left will be left for stability.

does your gut say up or down?

It is really hard to tell short term.
In the mid term I think it will go up (spring is coming).
In the long term my gut says it will be 100 000 usd each.

EDIT: Sorry, I meant the price in the long term is 1 000 000 usd each for obvious reasons.  
EDIT2: Sorry, I meant the price in the long term is 10 000 000 usd each for obvious reasons.  

[mnemonicsoup]

How much would the Market Cap have to be for each one to be 100 000?

[bitebits]

How much would the Market Cap have to be for each one to be 100 000?

Supply times 100 000 (marbles?).

[KeyJockey]

Personally, if I do pick a little up on a dip, I immediately set up a sell a little higher for most of this 'play money' as it goes back up and aim to keep increasing the stash a little and cost average down.  It's a nice way to play and over time as XMR drifts up and down, you scalp a little here and there (if you're patient and not too greedy) without risking your position too much - and it adds up.  XMR oscillates way more than BTC, so 5-10% here and there on a small stash of play coins is not impossible....

Yeah that's probably a reasonable way to do it, but really only works with something like XMR in it's current state-of-being... basically this is the "BTFD" strategy (funny video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4 )

It works as long as the oscillations are fairly stable, but if/when there's a Big Dip you're screwed.  Go ask the ZCash early buyers how well BTFD is working for them, LOL, they're gonna be waiting forever to get back to their million-dollar coin LOL

OTOH if there's a Big Dip in XMR then HODL'ers are screwed too... so... no free lunch in any case I guess.

[phoenix rises]

Trading volume is down and in the mean time the daily trading range seems to get tighten. Soon there will be a breakup or breakdown. The odds for both are almost 50 % and what is left will be left for stability.

does your gut say up or down?

My gut says up as a result of BTC heading down. I think that is the fuel we are wiating for.

@KeyJockey -  thanks for your detailed review of the GUI. very cool  . Gonna wait for the compatable Daemon b4 trying the Windows version. Kinda glad I am at least experiencing the CLI version for a bit first too.

[kurious]

Personally, if I do pick a little up on a dip, I immediately set up a sell a little higher for most of this 'play money' as it goes back up and aim to keep increasing the stash a little and cost average down.  It's a nice way to play and over time as XMR drifts up and down, you scalp a little here and there (if you're patient and not too greedy) without risking your position too much - and it adds up.  XMR oscillates way more than BTC, so 5-10% here and there on a small stash of play coins is not impossible....

Yeah that's probably a reasonable way to do it, but really only works with something like XMR in it's current state-of-being... basically this is the "BTFD" strategy (funny video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4 )

It works as long as the oscillations are fairly stable, but if/when there's a Big Dip you're screwed.  Go ask the ZCash early buyers how well BTFD is working for them, LOL, they're gonna be waiting forever to get back to their million-dollar coin LOL

OTOH if there's a Big Dip in XMR then HODL'ers are screwed too... so... no free lunch in any case I guess.

I am holding about what I want to.  So, I am not selling to buy back, I am buying a few extra to sell my average down.  If I buy and can't sell it, I have extra to HODL, but if the chance to sell the extra comes I am not emotionally attached to it.  Works for me.   And a big dip is always possible.  Just make sure you have a few buys set 'just in case'.  It makes holding easier if you know you have a little bonus coming because of a sudden dip.

Long term Monero is a good bet, so it's not so stressful ;-)

[KeyJockey]

The harder decision for me lately has been what percentage of overall crypto to keep in BITCOIN versus MONERO.

XMR clearly has more long-term upward potential, from this current sub-$10 that really IMHO should already be $50-$100, and maybe even better short-term upward potential with possibly less downside too.

So, logically if true, that'd mean "all in" on ONLY XMR would be best, but I somehow can't bring myself to completely abandon Honey Badger either LOL

I still hold more bitcoin than anything else but my ratio of XMR/BTC probably really SHOULD be higher. 

Just can't really decide how much is "correct" lately

[CoinCidental]

Trading volume is down and in the mean time the daily trading range seems to get tighten. Soon there will be a breakup or breakdown. The odds for both are almost 50 % and what is left will be left for stability.

does your gut say up or down?

My gut says up as a result of BTC heading down. I think that is the fuel we are wiating for.

@KeyJockey -  thanks for your detailed review of the GUI. very cool  . Gonna wait for the compatable Daemon b4 trying the Windows version. Kinda glad I am at least experiencing the CLI version for a bit first too.

Btc probably more likely to up imo.... Bullish news from China

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-26/china-unveils-new-capital-controls-freezing-ma-frenzy

[TrueCryptonaire]

It is possible to drive the price of Monero up by accelerating its demand. It is in the best interest of a large holder(s) to drive the price up since it is relatively cheap way to inflate the wealth of a Monero whale. And the rising price will attract more people into Monero which will further drive the price of Monero higher.
I agree Monero should be at 100 usd a piece currently so it is severely underpriced asset.

[bucktotal]

The harder decision for me lately has been what percentage of overall crypto to keep in BITCOIN versus MONERO.

XMR clearly has more long-term upward potential, from this current sub-$10 that really IMHO should already be $50-$100, and maybe even better short-term upward potential with possibly less downside too.

So, logically if true, that'd mean "all in" on ONLY XMR would be best, but I somehow can't bring myself to completely abandon Honey Badger either LOL

I still hold more bitcoin than anything else but my ratio of XMR/BTC probably really SHOULD be higher. 

Just can't really decide how much is "correct" lately

as a very long-term holder of btc and an early investor in xmr. at current prices, im sitting at ~75-20-5% btc-xmr-other.
is what is.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

The harder decision for me lately has been what percentage of overall crypto to keep in BITCOIN versus MONERO.

XMR clearly has more long-term upward potential, from this current sub-$10 that really IMHO should already be $50-$100, and maybe even better short-term upward potential with possibly less downside too.

So, logically if true, that'd mean "all in" on ONLY XMR would be best, but I somehow can't bring myself to completely abandon Honey Badger either LOL

I still hold more bitcoin than anything else but my ratio of XMR/BTC probably really SHOULD be higher. 

Just can't really decide how much is "correct" lately

Monero is still a very speculative coin. On the plus side it is one of the very few altcoins that have made a higher high than when trading started. While it is fun to consider $100 Monero remember that the September high of .0265 has to be taken out first and that is not going to be easy. 95% bitcoin to 5% Monero is a conservative ratio. I have a hard time recommending more because a reliable hardware wallet for Monero does not exist yet. Other than an official GUI release of a hardware wallet should drive price up.

[KeyJockey]

as a very long-term holder of btc and an early investor in xmr. at current prices, im sitting at ~75-20-5% btc-xmr-other.
is what is.

Thanks for posting... that's a little more aggressive/optimistic than where I am: I'm about 10-1 BTC to XMR still, even though my overall Monero position has long since left my overall Bitcoin returns in the dust, just thinking about maybe bumping it up to 15%-ish

Anyone else have suggested ratio they believe in?

P.S. One thing to consider just as a "fun thought" in my opinion is: the days of any ordinary average Joe being able to become a billionaire using just BITCOIN is long gone... if any cryptocurrency is ever going to achieve the Holy Grail of world domination and be valued at today's equivalent of $1 Million dollars purchasing power PER UNIT of coin, you'd need to have already stockpiled 1,000 bitcoins to see that happen.

Even back when bitcoins were only trading for $100 each, that would've been a commitment of the value of a small HOUSE, which most people cannot and should not attempt!!  And nowadays it's already requiring from a half million to a million dollars value, so yes a millionaire today can become a billionaire with just bitcoin now (and some out there may yet accomplish this, Risto? LOL) but it's clearly long been out of reach for just an average Joe.

But... with XMR even Joe Average *might* still be able to pull this off!! 

A thousand XMR is still "only" the value of a shitty used car... about $5000 to $10,000

Personally I'm not there yet (pretty far away, sadly) but I'm keeping it in mind IF ONLY somehow, soon enough, I may be able to stockpile 1,000 Moneroj...?

If so, *maybe* I still have a small shot at retirement as a crypto billionaire some day on my own private island somewhere LOL

[bucktotal]

the thing is, the ratio was much lower when i was accumulating the xmr. but then the price went up and my investment went up ~20x.  

similar to the early btc days, its hard to manage such changes in wealth distribution. BUT, and its a big but, i am trying to make the kind of investment in xmr as i would have done for btc if i had known what btc would have become, if that makes sense. so here we are after huge gains in xmrbtc and while i have reduced the ratio, im just not willing to part with such a huge lottery ticket. thats why i sort of say "is what is"... i'm trying to further reduce that ratio (as i do with btc-usd ratio), but if the xmr price keeps pushing upwards, its not the kind of train i want to miss out huge on (and im already set with the amount of btc). i probably would not invest that ratio of btc into xmr now, so i should probably reduce a little, but big risk big reward, etc...