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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3308033 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
24Kilo
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November 07, 2016, 09:08:56 PM
 #24841

It is amazing the difference a few letters at the end of a word make -

Trust + ed ≠ Trust + less

Any system that requires a 'trusted' setup will never be 'trustless'. Thus I would never use ZEC or any derivative thereof, as it is the antithesis of the very foundations and fundamentals of cryptocurrency.
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November 07, 2016, 09:27:27 PM
 #24842

Peter Todd 95% confident that he wasn't compromised during trusted setup.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ZClassic/comments/5bbpmr/we_should_invite_petertodd_to_our_trusted_setup/

Good enough, right?

The money grubbing in crypto space is really something. Rather than contribute to a fair coin like Monero, sure, fork an existing coin and pump that because you can perhaps make more money that way.

Welcome to the real world kid. This is how we all do business because when it comes down to it, it's all for one and me for myself.

yea, how long market will be - how long there will be speculation
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November 07, 2016, 09:48:08 PM
 #24843

Peter Todd 95% confident that he wasn't compromised during trusted setup.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ZClassic/comments/5bbpmr/we_should_invite_petertodd_to_our_trusted_setup/

Good enough, right?

ZCash has way more problems than the trusted setup, starting of course with the effective on, 10min blocks, 8 MB (2 MB over 2.5min blocks) blocksize limit.  Seriously after all the debate and lack of resolution in Bitcoin over this why this was not addressed in ZCash is beyond me. This "slow launch" over the first 20000 blocks has also set up early investors up to fail in a big way, with a fall of ~10^4 from its ATH at ~2.4 million USD. A further fall by a factor of 10^2 or 10^3 is actually not unreasonable for this ZCash bear market. Then we also have the further short / medium term irritant of the RAM requirements for sending the anonymous transactions.

How does all of this impact Monero? Well ZCash has become a rather interesting and somewhat entertaining side show. It may have a small positive impact on Monero because of the launch fiasco.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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November 07, 2016, 11:10:28 PM
 #24844


ZCash has way more problems than the trusted setup, starting of course with the effective on, 10min blocks, 8 MB (2 MB over 2.5min blocks) blocksize limit.  Seriously after all the debate and lack of resolution in Bitcoin over this why this was not addressed in ZCash is beyond me. This "slow launch" over the first 20000 blocks has also set up early investors up to fail in a big way, with a fall of ~10^4 from its ATH at ~2.4 million USD. A further fall by a factor of 10^2 or 10^3 is actually not unreasonable for this ZCash bear market. Then we also have the further short / medium term irritant of the RAM requirements for sending the anonymous transactions.

How does all of this impact Monero? Well ZCash has become a rather interesting and somewhat entertaining side show. It may have a small positive impact on Monero because of the launch fiasco.

I can't find a good answer on how much RAM Zcash requires for its anonymous transactions. Do you happen to know? Also, how bad is it as far as CPU usage? I've seen claims that Zcash can't be used on mobile devices due to these requirements.
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November 08, 2016, 02:08:27 AM
 #24845

Well I'm glad to see Monero up a bit.
Maybe people are starting to realize Zcash won't totally kill the market and that Monero is a solid technology?


Maybe it's painfully obvious that if you go back to the same levels BEFORE the pump even started -- 0.06/btc -- a price that was steady when there were NO DNM's using Monero.... it's probably a sign that XMR has been oversold and this is probably a good entry point.

RingCT and GUI is still yet to be released, as far as I know. There is plenty of room for growth from here. The market can still be irrational and re-visit 0.06 or even dip down to 0.04 as BTC keeps looking hella bullish. But for long term 0.06-0.08 is solid imo.

It also helps that Zcash is turning out to be a disaster... what kind of idiot would support a coin where founders get 20% of all supply lmao. RingCT essentially gives Monero the same features as Zcash

I think you are missing a zero just to the right of the decimal.

Monero opened this year @ 0.001142 so we are up ~715% since then vs btc and btc is up ~62% vs USD so......hold on I have to take off my shoes.

And no the pump started before 0.006, around 0.00420  Grin and there was obvious upwards pressure before the pump.


I can say what has happened but as far as what will happen I can say little except............overall up over the long term, unlike almost every coin.

smooth (OP)
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November 08, 2016, 02:58:18 AM
 #24846

How does all of this impact Monero? Well ZCash has become a rather interesting and somewhat entertaining side show. It may have a small positive impact on Monero because of the launch fiasco.

Also the usability (RAM/CPU resources) comparison will be made, and Monero will come out ahead easily. As you say this is a medium term concern likely fixed by improved technology longer term, but for now it will be mild to moderate positive for Monero.
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November 08, 2016, 03:34:37 AM
 #24847

...

I can't find a good answer on how much RAM Zcash requires for its anonymous transactions. Do you happen to know? Also, how bad is it as far as CPU usage? I've seen claims that Zcash can't be used on mobile devices due to these requirements.

According to the user guide 4 GB of Free RAM https://github.com/zcash/zcash/wiki/1.0-User-Guide. To allow for the OS and any other applications this means 6 GB RAM minimum 8 GB RAM or greater typical. So forget 32bit systems (desktop or mobile) including most phones, tablets etc. See also https://monero.stackexchange.com/questions/1112/monero-ram-requirements-compared-with-zcash and links therein.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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November 08, 2016, 03:39:42 AM
 #24848

Lalalala 30% again. Time for new furniture.

Hottest Coins: Decred, ZCoin, Waves
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November 08, 2016, 03:56:01 AM
 #24849

what kind of idiot would support a coin where founders get 20% of all supply lmao.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.0;topicseen


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
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"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
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smooth (OP)
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November 08, 2016, 04:52:51 AM
 #24850

I can't find a good answer on how much RAM Zcash requires for its anonymous transactions. Do you happen to know? Also, how bad is it as far as CPU usage? I've seen claims that Zcash can't be used on mobile devices due to these requirements.

I'm not sure about the RAM requirements.

The last estimate I saw was taking about a minute of CPU time for transaction on a desktop. That probably varies depends on specs, but it will very likely be longer and certainly be a high battery drain on mobile.
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November 08, 2016, 04:54:19 AM
 #24851

what kind of idiot would support a coin where founders get 20% of all supply lmao.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.0;topicseen

I gotta say I laughed. Feels like ancient history now. )

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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November 08, 2016, 05:05:18 AM
 #24852

I would like to give a shout out to these prognosticators for predicting the "great capitulation". They convinced me to sell a few hundred moneros Sad  I trusted you, man! LOL

Oh well, let's see what tomorrow and rest of week brings (0.004x could still happen?)...hopefully I can buy them back close to where I sold them, at least.

Anyone care to speculate on price and this bear market...?

Risto flipped to 'maybe 0.004', Aminorex is sadly absent.  We have seen bottoms below where I expected (I can't be alone in that), so it's tough for all of us who know Monero is sound and will rise again - but is all speculation dead while BTC looks this bullish?

Are we just waiting...?

My thoughts?: 

I have said here and elsewhere that I can't see a serious rise for a while - probably not even until Spring.

But does anyone want to polish their crystal ball and take a guess at where the bottom is or even when stability will come...  And will we hold value in USD terms even if BTC does moon...?

This is Monero Speculation, right?  Wink







Anyone who thinks this is going anywhere right now other than to the 0.004x range is blind, stupid or both.

And,
I can't fight the feeling that we'll see the capitulation now.

Well my gut is not always correct but sometimes it is  Smiley
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November 08, 2016, 06:00:28 AM
 #24853

I would like to give a shout out to these prognosticators for predicting the "great capitulation". They convinced me to sell a few hundred moneros Sad  I trusted you, man! LOL

Oh well, let's see what tomorrow and rest of week brings (0.004x could still happen?)...hopefully I can buy them back close to where I sold them, at least.

Anyone care to speculate on price and this bear market...?

Risto flipped to 'maybe 0.004', Aminorex is sadly absent.  We have seen bottoms below where I expected (I can't be alone in that), so it's tough for all of us who know Monero is sound and will rise again - but is all speculation dead while BTC looks this bullish?

Are we just waiting...?

My thoughts?: 

I have said here and elsewhere that I can't see a serious rise for a while - probably not even until Spring.

But does anyone want to polish their crystal ball and take a guess at where the bottom is or even when stability will come...  And will we hold value in USD terms even if BTC does moon...?

This is Monero Speculation, right?  Wink







Anyone who thinks this is going anywhere right now other than to the 0.004x range is blind, stupid or both.

And,
I can't fight the feeling that we'll see the capitulation now.

Well my gut is not always correct but sometimes it is  Smiley

I'd be surprised if this is a true reversal -- we haven't really tested a low with high volume yet.

However, XMR is way oversold and the fundamentals remain sound.

So.........?

When in doubt, do nowt (as they say in Yorkshire).

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November 08, 2016, 06:08:26 AM
 #24854

...

I can't find a good answer on how much RAM Zcash requires for its anonymous transactions. Do you happen to know? Also, how bad is it as far as CPU usage? I've seen claims that Zcash can't be used on mobile devices due to these requirements.

According to the user guide 4 GB of Free RAM https://github.com/zcash/zcash/wiki/1.0-User-Guide. To allow for the OS and any other applications this means 6 GB RAM minimum 8 GB RAM or greater typical. So forget 32bit systems (desktop or mobile) including most phones, tablets etc. See also https://monero.stackexchange.com/questions/1112/monero-ram-requirements-compared-with-zcash and links therein.

Based on your post above that means zcash has a much more limited adoption ability when it comes to the end-user. Nice.

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November 08, 2016, 06:36:26 AM
 #24855

Zcash's technical difficulties can be solved over time.

What can't be solved is the 'trusted setup'. A 100% no go if you use the coin for it's fungibility and privacy. Who wants to risk jail time or life based on trusting six people? I rather trust the math and maybe myself to some extend, although external pressure goes a long way. A 5$ wrench comes to mind.

Additionally the 20% cut to the founders of every block found, for four years, can only fixed by forking. Which I would encourage.


I just don't understand the hype, except for traders and speculators trying to earn some extra BTC / XMR / USD.

- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett
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November 08, 2016, 06:44:41 AM
 #24856

I would like to give a shout out to these prognosticators for predicting the "great capitulation". They convinced me to sell a few hundred moneros Sad  I trusted you, man! LOL

He said capitulation is coming, but not who will surrender.  Tongue

It was pretty obvious that XMR would not fall below the prepump price.
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November 08, 2016, 06:51:33 AM
 #24857

I would like to give a shout out to these prognosticators for predicting the "great capitulation". They convinced me to sell a few hundred moneros Sad  I trusted you, man! LOL

He said capitulation is coming, but not who will surrender.  Tongue

It was pretty obvious that XMR would not fall below the prepump price.

Maybe Risto is becoming a good reverse indicator. More likely he is talking his book, and in that case you never know. So again the general rule applies to not take financial advice from internet strangers (or from anyone really if you ask me):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg16608968#msg16608968

- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett
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November 08, 2016, 06:52:32 AM
 #24858

XMR go to the moon! Grin
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November 08, 2016, 08:56:28 AM
 #24859

I love what i am seeing now, we should be happy guys, monero is skyrocketing again.. I like the price to go again at 0.02 level. Any idea why is this happening now? Is it worth to buy again or wait?

.
.Duelbits.
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November 08, 2016, 09:35:34 AM
 #24860

Volume is tasty....

We need to properly break 0.01 again to say the bear run is truly over, but this volume spike is very positive.

It does show that XMR can turn on a sixpence and any decent good news could be epic.  I still think a new rise to the real heights will need patience.  Variables are of course GUI and BTC.

Zcash threat looks to be have been weathered, though.  It's looking a bit 'meh..' Monero doesn't care.

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