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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3308033 times)
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November 16, 2016, 07:32:45 PM
 #25101

any guesses on the bottom  Huh

0.004x in 3-5 weeks
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November 16, 2016, 07:32:51 PM
 #25102

bottom has been hit - this is whales manipulating price down - they know the rise is coming next week

There's almost always some form of manipulation, but take a look at the Polo market list.  Everything is in the red.

This drop is purely the BTC rise.  

That said, I think you're correct about the rise next week.  And with BTC up and XMR down, it's a pretty good time to buy some additional XMR - if you were already holding BTC.

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November 16, 2016, 07:44:31 PM
 #25103

Most people know the GUI is coming. I can only see this drop being due to bitcoin going up, people panicking and thinking that they can buy XMR later as the GUI is coming in 1-2 weeks.

In my case I will be buying some in this turmoil Smiley
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November 16, 2016, 07:47:33 PM
 #25104

Btc up 5% Monero down 25%, seems about right  Huh
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November 16, 2016, 07:57:18 PM
 #25105

Most people know the GUI is coming. I can only see this drop being due to bitcoin going up, people panicking and thinking that they can buy XMR later as the GUI is coming in 1-2 weeks.

In my case I will be buying some in this turmoil Smiley

The perception that the GUI will make the price go higher is only true in the short and long term pictures.

Initial spike makes sense, but what really matters is the longer term adoption that allows monero's price to grow.

In the medium term, who knows what will happen.

And also who knows how much of the "GUI" has been priced in to the price already since it is common knowledge ahead of time much like bitcoin block halving is known ahead of time.

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November 16, 2016, 08:14:10 PM
 #25106

Btc up 5% Monero down 25%, seems about right  Huh

It was same last weeks. tomorrow when BTC will drop 5% Monero will go up 25%   It is called "November BTC rally panic".
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November 16, 2016, 08:18:33 PM
 #25107

Isn't it obvious that the decline of the last day is due to the BTC rise?

When BTC went up around two weeks ago, XMR went down. XMR started to go up again, when BTC came to a stop and reached previous levels at around 0.01.
In relation to dollar XMR profited from the BTC rise, it was around 4 $ went up to 7 is still at $ 6.36.

When BTC rises traders jump ship and since XMRs volume is much smaller, the percentage it goes down is bigger than the percentage BTC goes up.

XMR has shown a lot of strength during the last weeks.

XMR also recovered much quicker than all the other alts from the BTC rise two weeks ago, another good sign.
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November 16, 2016, 08:38:56 PM
 #25108

Most people know the GUI is coming. I can only see this drop being due to bitcoin going up, people panicking and thinking that they can buy XMR later as the GUI is coming in 1-2 weeks.

In my case I will be buying some in this turmoil Smiley

The perception that the GUI will make the price go higher is only true in the short and long term pictures.

Initial spike makes sense, but what really matters is the longer term adoption that allows monero's price to grow.

In the medium term, who knows what will happen.

And also who knows how much of the "GUI" has been priced in to the price already since it is common knowledge ahead of time much like bitcoin block halving is known ahead of time.

Yes, it is as you said. Here is my speculation:

- Short term: Release of GUI will spike the price, not sure by how much but my guess is to 12-14$ or a bit above ATH which will be followed by a correction to around 11$.

I believe the spike will occur because I think lots of people have been waiting for the GUI, entry barrier lowered (When I first found monero, I did not want to deal with the CLI and it put me off big time) and people seeing that Monero is still in active development with great devs which will increase trust on the project.

The DNM adoption will probably increase by a lot as well since a GUI+RingCT.... there's not much reason on using BTC over XMR. They will most likely want to feel secure in their transactions and protect their privacy.

- Medium term: I think it will be a slow adoption rate with some upspikes along the way (RingCT in January, KOVRI development, rich people buying XMR) for a year or so. More and more people will find out that Monero is not a scam but the real deal. It is very difficult to see what will happen medium term but I personally remain quite optimistic!
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November 16, 2016, 09:47:56 PM
 #25109

Serious question: How do those of you who support the Monero project, i.e. want it to succeed, justify selling moneroj at this embryonic stage of the ecosystem's development? Doesn't selling moneroj weaken the Monero project by demoralizing and disincentivizing the entire ecosystem?

I'm not judging anyone here, just curious how traders who are also supporters of the Monero project (and not just profiteers) think. I'm a hodler by temperament.

Shorters (and their lenders) help Monero by

1)  Aiding stability and price discovery by providing liquidity, thus absorbing volatility and smoothing out spikes/dips, as KoziTwo explained in detail

2)  Encouraging wider distribution by filling bids when someone wants to borrow and dump, which aids Network Effect (Nielsen)

3)  Causing economic illiterates ("zomg I hate teh nasty shorters and hope tey get h4x0rd1!1!!") to self identify

4)  Increasing profits of the facilitating exchange; IE Polo benefits not only from XMR activity but also the ETH, etc. volume attracted as well, which encourages more exchange adaption via profit motive (you know the other exchanges are mad/jealous Polo is eating 41% of their ETH lunch while they fight over the leftovers)

Holy Shit that was so funny I almost Ralphed!!!

So how much is loaned out now? The lack of low cost loans right now and high BTC is keeping me bullish. Anyone wanna sell me some via paypal? PM me.

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November 16, 2016, 11:01:38 PM
 #25110

Most people know the GUI is coming. I can only see this drop being due to bitcoin going up, people panicking and thinking that they can buy XMR later as the GUI is coming in 1-2 weeks.

In my case I will be buying some in this turmoil Smiley

The perception that the GUI will make the price go higher is only true in the short and long term pictures.

Initial spike makes sense, but what really matters is the longer term adoption that allows monero's price to grow.

In the medium term, who knows what will happen.

And also who knows how much of the "GUI" has been priced in to the price already since it is common knowledge ahead of time much like bitcoin block halving is known ahead of time.

I would say for "traders" the GUI has so often been postponed that they might actually wait till there are downloadable binaries :p
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November 17, 2016, 12:50:45 AM
 #25111

Serious question: How do those of you who support the Monero project, i.e. want it to succeed, justify selling moneroj at this embryonic stage of the ecosystem's development? Doesn't selling moneroj weaken the Monero project by demoralizing and disincentivizing the entire ecosystem?

I'm not judging anyone here, just curious how traders who are also supporters of the Monero project (and not just profiteers) think. I'm a hodler by temperament.

Shorters (and their lenders) help Monero by

1)  Aiding stability and price discovery by providing liquidity, thus absorbing volatility and smoothing out spikes/dips, as KoziTwo explained in detail

2)  Encouraging wider distribution by filling bids when someone wants to borrow and dump, which aids Network Effect (Nielsen)

3)  Causing economic illiterates ("zomg I hate teh nasty shorters and hope tey get h4x0rd1!1!!") to self identify

4)  Increasing profits of the facilitating exchange; IE Polo benefits not only from XMR activity but also the ETH, etc. volume attracted as well, which encourages more exchange adaption via profit motive (you know the other exchanges are mad/jealous Polo is eating 41% of their ETH lunch while they fight over the leftovers)

Holy Shit that was so funny I almost Ralphed!!!

So how much is loaned out now? The lack of low cost loans right now and high BTC is keeping me bullish. Anyone wanna sell me some via paypal? PM me.

Ebay.....
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November 17, 2016, 01:52:29 AM
 #25112

feels a little dumb for shorting last monday. but still, rebought at 0.015 and still have profits stacked. all good tho i could have made more, its still fine for me.

those who dont need fund urgently, they should keep. those who need funds at quick speed, they should like me keep a few thousand xmr and short the profit only.

xmr is going to rally up to 100$ or something around that amount in a few months to a few years. which is still ok, considering i am talking about it now, where its under 15usd.

be wise. dont put your heart to your coin, instead make quick move and be profitable.

however, in all honesty, there is a long way for xmr to go. the acceptance of the market due to dark net is way too high and lots of vendors/sellers i heard we moving to full xmr.

however the code has not been fully tested like bitcoins has been during the past years.


the biggest fear i have for now is if some exchangers scam for xmr, its going to be butthurt to get the price back up.

so i urge all developper who can code, develop/ build applications over xmr system. make the coin last. as much as you can code, code for xmr. small, big, whatever you can do. start building the economy around it. it will be worth it in a few years.

those who say it wont last, or it will be dead, or its just a pump and dump. just remember the price of bitcoins from its start and whats the price of bitcoins now.

we all one way or another have complained not getting into bitcoins when it was easy to mine, or cheap, some even say 10$ was a good price to buy bitcoins.
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November 17, 2016, 04:03:28 AM
 #25113

...
Quote
So how much is loaned out now? The lack of low cost loans right now and high BTC is keeping me bullish. Anyone wanna sell me some via paypal? PM me.

Ebay.....

None for sale that I can find. Doesn't matter anyway I just lost a butt ton on the poker table. Smiley

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November 17, 2016, 09:52:48 AM
 #25114

Btc up 5% Monero down 25%, seems about right  Huh

Higher Beta relation of XMR to BTC.

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November 17, 2016, 10:43:29 AM
 #25115

If in doubt just be flat and enjoy the btc volatility  Wink
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November 17, 2016, 11:03:01 AM
 #25116

is this the new exponential trend channel XMR is bound to for the next several months?



Lol these chart "patterns" get more and more ridiculous.
You should try to get into the fortune teller business.

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November 17, 2016, 03:41:52 PM
 #25117

is this the new exponential trend channel XMR is bound to for the next several months?



Lol these chart "patterns" get more and more ridiculous.
You should try to get into the fortune teller business.

What I noticed here in crypto trading is that charting predictions don't work at least based on my own observations. So guys don't stress yourselves too much. I just think and believe that Monero will return to its high value soon. Not unless another coin superior than ZCrush comes into market. Cheesy  Cheesy Cheesy
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November 17, 2016, 04:23:49 PM
 #25118

All this talk about the necessity and convenience for mass adoption is nonsense at this point in time.

Mass adoption in the literal sense is a long way out. The only group that matters at the moment are people who are already into crypto or curious enough to venture into it. They are few, and their hearts and conviction will have to be conquered.

It is them who will be the ambassadors for when larger adoption actually becomes a possibility. It is their choices which will be the choices of the masses. It is their competence which will help the rest of the world to ease into it.

The GUI is important, of course. However it is not important for the masses, but to help in carving out a sufficiently large group from this mess that makes up
crypto: Idealists, techies, economists, thieves, liars... and all the "normal" people stumbling into this space thinking WOW wtf is going on in here this looks cool!

Just as I did a few years ago.

A group (or market share for the cynics) large enough to gain the necessary inertia to rocket past the cesspool of failed money grabbing shiny shit projects that make up 95% of this habitat.
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November 17, 2016, 04:26:41 PM
 #25119

All this talk about the necessity and convenience for mass adoption is nonsense at this point in time.

Mass adoption in the literal sense is a long way out. The only group that matters at the moment are people who are already into crypto or curious enough to venture into it. They are few, and their hearts and conviction will have to be conquered.

It is them who will be the ambassadors for when larger adoption actually becomes a possibility. It is their choices which will be the choices of the masses. It is their competence which will help the rest of the world to ease into it.

The GUI is important, of course. However it is not important for the masses, but to help in carving out a sufficiently large group from this mess that makes up
crypto: Idealists, techies, economists, thieves, liars... and all the "normal" people stumbling into this space thinking WOW wtf is going on in here this looks cool!

Just as I did a few years ago.

A group (or market share for the cynics) large enough to gain the necessary inertia to rocket past the cesspool of failed money grabbing shiny shit projects that make up 95% 99% of this habitat.

FTFY.

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November 17, 2016, 04:45:23 PM
 #25120

is this the new exponential trend channel XMR is bound to for the next several months?



Lol these chart "patterns" get more and more ridiculous.
You should try to get into the fortune teller business.

It is called speculation for a reason.

I'm already in the physical coin making business.

What is your speculation?

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     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
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. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.                  History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
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