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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3308043 times)
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ArticMine
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November 01, 2016, 06:10:25 PM
Last edit: November 01, 2016, 06:28:18 PM by ArticMine
 #24721

...
It seems like one of the XMR things is to go down when Zcash goes up. Given Zcash's low supply, its price is easily manipulable, which will surely lead to high volatility for Zcash and for XMR. This may be disconcerting in the short term, but in the longer term should lead to greater speculative interest in XMR.

ZCash is effectively trying to do the impossible, by trying to have a significant market capitalization with a minuscule money supply in the short term. Sure $3,915,552 market cap; $1,562 per ZEC and 2,507 ZEC total supply. All this is doing is setting up the early investors for a massive fall once the emission picks up steam in a few months.

Seriously 1.50 USD or even 0.15 USD per ZEC is not unrealistic as a low for this coin in the next 6 - 9 months. This is based solely on the economics of the ZCash emission curve, without implying any fundamental failure in the technology, the developers or the coin itself.  We are talking here of over 10^6 or possibly over 10^7 fall from its peak at ~2.4 Million USD per ZEC. This could shape up to be one mega bear market.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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November 01, 2016, 06:43:55 PM
 #24722

...
It seems like one of the XMR things is to go down when Zcash goes up. Given Zcash's low supply, its price is easily manipulable, which will surely lead to high volatility for Zcash and for XMR. This may be disconcerting in the short term, but in the longer term should lead to greater speculative interest in XMR.

ZCash is effectively trying to do the impossible, by trying to have a significant market capitalization with a minuscule money supply in the short term. Sure $3,915,552 market cap; $1,562 per ZEC and 2,507 ZEC total supply. All this is doing is setting up the early investors for a massive fall once the emission picks up steam in a few months.

Seriously 1.50 USD or even 0.15 USD per ZEC is not unrealistic as a low for this coin in the next 6 - 9 months. This is based solely on the economics of the ZCash emission curve, without implying any fundamental failure in the technology, the developers or the coin itself.  We are talking here of over 10^6 or possibly over 10^7 fall from its peak at ~2.4 Million USD per ZEC. This could shape up to be one mega bear market.


I hope so, because fuck everything about ZEC. Early "insider" investors, 20% of all supply goes to founders, "trusted" setup...  everything about it is shady.

As far as I understand XMR's RingCT essentially has the same features ZEC has




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bitebits
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November 01, 2016, 08:23:15 PM
 #24723

[...]
It is fair to call me a "permabull" in the sense that even when I have bearish short term views, I have persistent bullish longer term views.  In fact any short term views I may have, are very loosely held, because I don't generally have better information than the market, so I should in the main defer to the market on short-term discounting.  I think I have a better ability to grasp the bigger picture than the market has demonstrated, so I have stronger long-term bullish views.  So far experience has borne out my estimates regarding the longer term arc of Monero developments, but that is no guarantee of future performance.  I am perfectly capable of imagining extreme scenarios of upside which are highly unlikely to occur.  Yet I consider their possibility to be non-negligible, in general.

I don't think I have ever recommended anyone to buy Monero at a time when it would have taken them more than a year to double their money, if they did as I suggested, and DCA'd.  I was recommending BTC at very bad times, and it has taken years for those recommendations to come out from under water.  I felt bad about that, so I am more cautious now, when making recommendations.  I definitely do recommend buying Monero, here, now.  Anything under 0188 is cheap, IMHO.  Under $10, a steal.  If you are underweight, buy it.  In general, people with lower risk tolerance should expect to DCA over a year or more to minimize average draw-downs.

RemindMe! 1 year (hope to see you actively speculating again when Monero starts it's next uptrend)

Maybe, in the meanwhile, can I remind you there is a non speculation Monero thread as well?

- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett
- Pay any Bitcoin address privately with a little help of Monero.
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November 01, 2016, 10:20:39 PM
 #24724

Quote
...

On a side note who's a margin expert here? PM me please.

the first rule:

to make a small fortune margin trading,
 start with a large one.
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November 02, 2016, 03:09:51 AM
 #24725

Quote
...

On a side note who's a margin expert here? PM me please.

the first rule:

to make a small fortune margin trading,
 start with a large one.

Lol

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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November 02, 2016, 06:41:14 AM
 #24726

Monero is and will always be greater than zcrash. Cheesy I also anticipated the coming of zcrash. Someone posted a link about zec funders that I can't quote. I was thinking of why will people use a coin funded by agencies or groups like that if cryptocurrency is for anonymity? Cheesy
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November 02, 2016, 09:19:17 AM
 #24727

Monero is and will always be greater than zcrash. Cheesy I also anticipated the coming of zcrash. Someone posted a link about zec funders that I can't quote. I was thinking of why will people use a coin funded by agencies or groups like that if cryptocurrency is for anonymity? Cheesy

BTC dominance 83.8 % : has not been so high for a long period !!
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November 02, 2016, 09:32:13 AM
 #24728

Anyone care to speculate on price and this bear market...?

Risto flipped to 'maybe 0.004', Aminorex is sadly absent.  We have seen bottoms below where I expected (I can't be alone in that), so it's tough for all of us who know Monero is sound and will rise again - but is all speculation dead while BTC looks this bullish?

Are we just waiting...?

My thoughts?: 

I have said here and elsewhere that I can't see a serious rise for a while - probably not even until Spring.

But does anyone want to polish their crystal ball and take a guess at where the bottom is or even when stability will come...  And will we hold value in USD terms even if BTC does moon...?

This is Monero Speculation, right?  Wink






我想要火箭和火车
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November 02, 2016, 09:36:43 AM
 #24729

Hello guys, can we see Monero to compete with Zcash anytime soon? because I like Monero more than zec and I want it to be successful.

What stops people to use Monero if it's the same as zec?
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November 02, 2016, 10:30:01 AM
 #24730

And I held throughout, sadly could have recovered back to my number of coins.



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November 02, 2016, 10:33:28 AM
 #24731

Hello guys, can we see Monero to compete with Zcash anytime soon? because I like Monero more than zec and I want it to be successful.

What stops people to use Monero if it's the same as zec?

Nothing stops it, it's just zcash has a huge hype and serious marketing behind it from the people that will benefit.

It's still way above it's real value when you realise how many coins will appear over time.

Monero is decentralised, open source and not backed by vested interests as zcash is, plus it's proven tech and has a huge awareness and respect in cryptoland.

The cream will rise and good money will drive out bad - zcash will be out there, but Monero will too.  The interest it generates in 'private money' can only (in the end) prove positive for Monero.  Will Monero compete? It already does - zcash is new and the hyped price is totally unrealistic.

Wait and see....

我想要火箭和火车
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November 02, 2016, 12:17:47 PM
 #24732

I think the Monero price will be reversely correlated to the Bitcoin price.  MasterLuc, whos predictions have been very accurate in the past and are based on the EW (Elliot Wave) principles back in August called a top for Bitcoin where we are now and predicted a bleed off to about 580 in early January before resuming an upward trajectory.  He even called the Bitcoin bottom which resulted from the Bitfinex hack well in advance when everyone was euphoric and calling for Moon.  If he is once again correct we should see a good rise in price until Bitcoin takes another moonshot so that could have been a short to mid term bottom for Monero.  Strong capitulation to 0.0058 and another higher double bottom yesterday at 0.006 with significant volume.  If his prediction does not come to fruition and Bitcoin resumes the uptrend shortly we might have a bottom in the 0.005s, since everyone is expecting 0.004s it likely wont happen.

Just my two cents.

Here is his prediction for reference.


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November 02, 2016, 12:20:23 PM
 #24733

In terms of Zcash here is a great write up on just some of its problems.  The more people dig into it the more serious flaws they find, additional articles and research will be published shortly.

http://weuse.cash/

rpietila
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November 02, 2016, 01:00:41 PM
 #24734

Anyone care to speculate on price and this bear market...?

Risto flipped to 'maybe 0.004', Aminorex is sadly absent.  We have seen bottoms below where I expected (I can't be alone in that), so it's tough for all of us who know Monero is sound and will rise again - but is all speculation dead while BTC looks this bullish?

Monero is in a secular uptrend, same as Bitcoin.

Both experience highs and lows - stellar rises of 1000%+, and grinding downtrends of up to 2 years in length.

Unless anyone decides otherwise, Monero is going to new lows.
- As for pricing, 0.004 BTC/XMR seems somewhat good target (just don't get religious on it if you are a lucky long term holder who is temporarily out).
- As for timing, Monero has an annual cycle and after a few months it's again the peak time.

HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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November 02, 2016, 01:23:03 PM
 #24735

Anyone care to speculate on price and this bear market...?

Risto flipped to 'maybe 0.004', Aminorex is sadly absent.  We have seen bottoms below where I expected (I can't be alone in that), so it's tough for all of us who know Monero is sound and will rise again - but is all speculation dead while BTC looks this bullish?

Are we just waiting...?

My thoughts?: 

I have said here and elsewhere that I can't see a serious rise for a while - probably not even until Spring.

But does anyone want to polish their crystal ball and take a guess at where the bottom is or even when stability will come...  And will we hold value in USD terms even if BTC does moon...?

This is Monero Speculation, right?  Wink







Anyone who thinks this is going anywhere right now other than to the 0.004x range is blind, stupid or both.
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November 02, 2016, 01:30:06 PM
 #24736

I think the Monero price will be reversely correlated to the Bitcoin price.  MasterLuc, whos predictions have been very accurate in the past and are based on the EW (Elliot Wave) principles back in August called a top for Bitcoin where we are now and predicted a bleed off to about 580 in early January before resuming an upward trajectory.  He even called the Bitcoin bottom which resulted from the Bitfinex hack well in advance when everyone was euphoric and calling for Moon.  If he is once again correct we should see a good rise in price until Bitcoin takes another moonshot so that could have been a short to mid term bottom for Monero.  Strong capitulation to 0.0058 and another higher double bottom yesterday at 0.006 with significant volume.  If his prediction does not come to fruition and Bitcoin resumes the uptrend shortly we might have a bottom in the 0.005s, since everyone is expecting 0.004s it likely wont happen.

Just my two cents.

Here is his prediction for reference.

I have my larger buy orders targeted in the 0.004 and 0.005 ranges. Will be interesting to see where the price movements take us over the next few weeks - As with all alts the BTC price will be the main driver.
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November 02, 2016, 01:34:52 PM
 #24737

^^^^ last four posts posts above that one

@kurious, well you asked..lol Wink


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November 02, 2016, 03:33:58 PM
 #24738

In terms of Zcash here is a great write up on just some of its problems.  The more people dig into it the more serious flaws they find, additional articles and research will be published shortly.

http://weuse.cash/

Great article.  I had not heard of this issue:

Quote
Zooko proposed recently to periodically force everyone to reveal their balance as a solution for the hidden inflation problem. At a certain block height all “anonymous” coins would become invalid and an observer would be able to sum up all “transparent” coins. If the total amount is equal to or less than the emission should actually be, the  system can be considered “sound” until that point in time.
 

The proposal is discussed by Zooko here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6RLjcGVUnw&feature=youtu.be&t=29m00s

Zooko notes that the "privacy leak" should be "minimal", and users can split up their balances to mitigate that.  He then also notes this would not impose a burden on users, as it would be managed by wallets, although that would mean cold storage wouldn't work..

Cold storage in my opinion is one of the greatest things about crypto!

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November 02, 2016, 03:37:02 PM
Last edit: November 02, 2016, 03:57:24 PM by wpalczynski
 #24739

In terms of Zcash here is a great write up on just some of its problems.  The more people dig into it the more serious flaws they find, additional articles and research will be published shortly.

http://weuse.cash/

Great article.  I had not heard of this issue:

Quote
Zooko proposed recently to periodically force everyone to reveal their balance as a solution for the hidden inflation problem. At a certain block height all “anonymous” coins would become invalid and an observer would be able to sum up all “transparent” coins. If the total amount is equal to or less than the emission should actually be, the  system can be considered “sound” until that point in time.
 

The proposal is discussed by Zooko here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6RLjcGVUnw&feature=youtu.be&t=29m00s

Zooko notes that the "privacy leak" should be "minimal", and users can split up their balances to mitigate that.  He then also notes this would not impose a burden on users, as it would be managed by wallets, although that would mean cold storage wouldn't work..

Cold storage in my opinion is one of the greatest things about crypto!



Its a totally absurd idea.  While it might not bother people just buying zcrash to buy things on DM it totally prevents it from being used as a means to store wealth privately.

The trusted setup is a monumental flaw, the collusion of the founders can result in creation of an unlimited number of coins which would be totally undetectable unless the above mentioned reconciliation takes place at a set frequency.

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November 02, 2016, 03:55:56 PM
 #24740


Its a totally absurd idea.  While it might not bother people just buying zcrash to buy things on DM it totally prevents it from being used as a means to store wealth privately.

DNM users have one very good reason to like cold storage.  Best way of preserving illegally obtained assets while in jail!
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