[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kaeste]

In my opinion, it doesn't really make sense to make a correction that early, or even make a bigger lower move at all. We almost reached the ATH several times, and we did today quite well at stabilizating the price for a little bit.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/cOvLDYMa-Monero-triangle-breakout-expectation/

It's not my chart, but i totally agree with this one. Before september 1 there's no reason to try retest lower fib levels, because there is better reward for going long, than going short in this moment.

Long story short - if you go long now, you will have like 100% chance to get the reward, but if you short, you can't be that sure.



This is my point of view, and what I believe will happen.

Everyone should gather the facts on they own, and make a decision by themselves.

Good luck guys.

it doesn't make sense to me either, all indicates this is natural demand masked as pump thats why so many ruffled feathers, people who sold too early or did not get in before

maybe im wrong, maybe im not, but this is how i feel.

And what we see now - some of people are hoping to buy cheaper, but the other group thinks that's too cheap to sell at this moment.

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[smoothie]

In my opinion, it doesn't really make sense to make a correction that early, or even make a bigger lower move at all. We almost reached the ATH several times, and we did today quite well at stabilizating the price for a little bit.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/cOvLDYMa-Monero-triangle-breakout-expectation/

It's not my chart, but i totally agree with this one. Before september 1 there's no reason to try retest lower fib levels, because there is better reward for going long, than going short in this moment.

Long story short - if you go long now, you will have like 100% chance to get the reward, but if you short, you can't be that sure.



This is my point of view, and what I believe will happen.

Everyone should gather the facts on they own, and make a decision by themselves.

Good luck guys.

it doesn't make sense to me either, all indicates this is natural demand masked as pump thats why so many ruffled feathers, people who sold too early or did not get in before

maybe im wrong, maybe im not, but this is how i feel.

The bolded section is what I have discerned from the way some users through different outlets speak. Almost out of regret/envy.

[Dafar]

So... I guess I will be waiting for a retrace of 0.00420 to 0.00520 before I jump in XMR. With my luck the price is gonna rally way beyond 0.01 while I wait..... and do the opposite as soon as I get in. I just never win in crypto 


I do like that XMR has actual utility, which is more than you could say for 99% of altcoins. I do believe the price will increase from where it is today... but I HATE getting in right after a massive pump/no correction.....  and if there is no correction, I would hate getting in above 0.01 which was the ATH.... fuck crypto 

[sandiman]

So... I guess I will be waiting for a retrace of 0.00420 to 0.00520 before I jump in XMR. With my luck the price is gonna rally way beyond 0.01 while I wait..... and do the opposite as soon as I get in. I just never win in crypto 


I do like that XMR has actual utility, which is more than you could say for 99% of altcoins. I do believe the price will increase from where it is today... but I HATE getting in right after a massive pump/no correction.....  and if there is no correction, I would hate getting in above 0.01 which was the ATH.... fuck crypto 

one word : FOMO

maybe it's 4 words in fact 

[Dafar]

So... I guess I will be waiting for a retrace of 0.00420 to 0.00520 before I jump in XMR. With my luck the price is gonna rally way beyond 0.01 while I wait..... and do the opposite as soon as I get in. I just never win in crypto 


I do like that XMR has actual utility, which is more than you could say for 99% of altcoins. I do believe the price will increase from where it is today... but I HATE getting in right after a massive pump/no correction.....  and if there is no correction, I would hate getting in above 0.01 which was the ATH.... fuck crypto 

one word : FOMO

maybe it's 4 words in fact 

You mean I should FOMO right now?

[kaeste]

So... I guess I will be waiting for a retrace of 0.00420 to 0.00520 before I jump in XMR. With my luck the price is gonna rally way beyond 0.01 while I wait..... and do the opposite as soon as I get in. I just never win in crypto  


I do like that XMR has actual utility, which is more than you could say for 99% of altcoins. I do believe the price will increase from where it is today... but I HATE getting in right after a massive pump/no correction.....  and if there is no correction, I would hate getting in above 0.01 which was the ATH.... fuck crypto  

one word : FOMO

maybe it's 4 words in fact  

You mean I should FOMO right now?

Jump in now with NO leverage, so in mid-term you will cash out.

i mean even if a price will drop a little from this point (0.0077226), you will still get profit - with leverage there's always a risk, that you will lose all when there will be short squeeze for example

[sandiman]

So... I guess I will be waiting for a retrace of 0.00420 to 0.00520 before I jump in XMR. With my luck the price is gonna rally way beyond 0.01 while I wait..... and do the opposite as soon as I get in. I just never win in crypto  


I do like that XMR has actual utility, which is more than you could say for 99% of altcoins. I do believe the price will increase from where it is today... but I HATE getting in right after a massive pump/no correction.....  and if there is no correction, I would hate getting in above 0.01 which was the ATH.... fuck crypto  

one word : FOMO

maybe it's 4 words in fact  

You mean I should FOMO right now?

No, I mean the fear is eating you and it's obvious from your answer. you should find better technical or fundamental argument to buy than FOMO one's. Never do a trade based on the money you could get, just do it for fundamental/technical reasons.

EDIT: just saw the comment above mine, don't listen to ANYONE in here. NEVER. do your own research and choice.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Actually buying the breakout of the ATH can be a profitable strategy as long as the breakout is on strong volume, which is easy to tell. FOMO sets in and buyers pile on, and the ATH which was resistance then becomes support.

[rpietila]

about 100 people have 10k or more, 150-200 people have 5k or more.

Just a little while ago you could buy 5000 XMR for under 10 BTC.. And it stayed that way for a long time.. You really think there are only ~200 people out there with higher balances than 5k?

I have written threads about the specifics of the model how these can be calculated. Instead of referring to those, I try to write it again in less formal but more understandable way.

1. Number of coins (XMR) is known, 12,700,000.

2. There is a largest holding. We don't know how large it is but my belief is more than 500,000 and less than 5,000,000 XMR. I am assuming 1,000,000 in the beginning of the deduction.

3. There is the smallest holding that matters. Anything below that is considered dust, and its owners don't count. Let us use 1 XMR because it's a round figure. Usually I prefer about $2 worth.

The above is true because it just is. So how can we know anything about how the coins are owned by people?

The answer is statistical probability. The number of coins each owner has, is a random variable. Therefore, the probability of someone owning 231 XMR (or: any number between 231-231.999999999999) has to be very near the probability of someone owning 232 XMR (or: any number between 232-232.999999999999). Or if not, there needs to be a valid explanation.

Another rule is called power law, and it says that the top end of many statistical phenomena, tends to behave so that if the largest value is 1, the second, third, etc. largest values are close to 1/2, 1/3, etc (or: the set [1; 1/2; 1/3; ...] is a good fit to the set of actual values).

Therefore, with the initial guess that the largest owner has 1,000,000 XMR, we can first construct the power law "elite" of 1,000 owners who own anything between 1,000 XMR (1,000th richest) and 1,000,000 XMR (1st richest). In total, the 1,000 largest owners have 7,500,000 XMR.

This answers your question. The reason there are surprisingly little people who fulfil "owns at least X XMR" is that to satisfy statistical continuity, there has to be people owning 2x that amount, and the number of those people tends to be 1/2x the number owning the smaller amount, and this goes all the way until the largest holding.

So the TOP-1000 who have 1,000 XMR or more, collectively own 7,500,000 XMR. The rest, with smaller holdings, are much more in number, but altogether own only 5,200,000 XMR.

There is a scenario universe for the possible assumptions. It is possible to decide sigma levels and make a more complicated multi-scenario calculation. But it does not really matter.

[sparky999]

If there is a drop before Sept 1st then it will be very brief imo. The upside is still much greater than the downside at the moment. We know Monero can support a price of approx 0.003x without any of this darknet market adoption. When you consider the size of the total darknet markets the rise to the current price of 0.007x seems relatively small to me.

I think anything in the 0.0065-0.0075 range is a good buy at the moment, post Sept 1st I guess all bets are off.

[kaeste]

EDIT: just saw the comment above mine, don't listen to ANYONE in here. NEVER. do your own research and choice.

Pardon me Sir, i don't want to get too personal with you, but get that stick out of your butt.

Since it's a thread about a speculation, it's hard to have a discussion when people are constantly posting those reminders 'DO WHAT YOU WANT DONT LISTEN TO THE OTHERS'.

That's obvious - don't trust anyone, but let the other people write what they think - without that, this thread doesn't make really any sense.

[rpietila]

You mean I should FOMO right now?

What is your strategy for the investment?

- For trading, FOMO is usually not good, but you can buy others' FOMO and trade profitably.

- For believing that Monero will rock the world, think of it as having a 50M USD marketcap!! Any rocking of anybody's monetary system requires a market cap 1,000 times that big (in reality a million times, but that much profit is hard to comprehend), so it absolutely does not matter at all whether you buy after a doubling move, just do it!

- BUT since the upside is so large, it does not matter if you wait either If you have any reason to believe you can buy cheaper with accumulation strategy etc, just do it! If you don't have any experience trading/timing XMR, just do it!

[SchemerDreamer]

about 100 people have 10k or more, 150-200 people have 5k or more.

Just a little while ago you could buy 5000 XMR for under 10 BTC.. And it stayed that way for a long time.. You really think there are only ~200 people out there with higher balances than 5k?

I have written threads about the specifics of the model how these can be calculated. Instead of referring to those, I try to write it again in less formal but more understandable way.

1. Number of coins (XMR) is known, 12,700,000.

2. There is a largest holding. We don't know how large it is but my belief is more than 500,000 and less than 5,000,000 XMR. I am assuming 1,000,000 in the beginning of the deduction.

3. There is the smallest holding that matters. Anything below that is considered dust, and its owners don't count. Let us use 1 XMR because it's a round figure. Usually I prefer about $2 worth.

The above is true because it just is. So how can we know anything about how the coins are owned by people?

The answer is statistical probability. The number of coins each owner has, is a random variable. Therefore, the probability of someone owning 231 XMR (or: any number between 231-231.999999999999) has to be very near the probability of someone owning 232 XMR (or: any number between 232-232.999999999999). Or if not, there needs to be a valid explanation.

Another rule is called power law, and it says that the top end of many statistical phenomena, tends to behave so that if the largest value is 1, the second, third, etc. largest values are close to 1/2, 1/3, etc (or: the set [1; 1/2; 1/3; ...] is a good fit to the set of actual values).

Therefore, with the initial guess that the largest owner has 1,000,000 XMR, we can first construct the power law "elite" of 1,000 owners who own anything between 1,000 XMR (1,000th richest) and 1,000,000 XMR (1st richest). In total, the 1,000 largest owners have 7,500,000 XMR.

This answers your question. The reason there are surprisingly little people who fulfil "owns at least X XMR" is that to satisfy statistical continuity, there has to be people owning 2x that amount, and the number of those people tends to be 1/2x the number owning the smaller amount, and this goes all the way until the largest holding.

So the TOP-1000 who have 1,000 XMR or more, collectively own 7,500,000 XMR. The rest, with smaller holdings, are much more in number, but altogether own only 5,200,000 XMR.

There is a scenario universe for the possible assumptions. It is possible to decide sigma levels and make a more complicated multi-scenario calculation. But it does not really matter.

Really appreciate the detailed response, that def makes sense. It just initially seemed hard to believe due to the relativity low amount of BTC it used to take to achieve 5K but you make some very valid points, thanks 

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

If there is a drop before Sept 1st then it will be very brief imo. The upside is still much greater than the downside at the moment. We know Monero can support a price of approx 0.003x without any of this darknet market adoption. When you consider the size of the total darknet markets the rise to the current price of 0.007x seems relatively small to me.

I think anything in the 0.0065-0.0075 range is a good buy at the moment, post Sept 1st I guess all bets are off.

Just because a couple of dark net markets make Monero available as a payment option does not guarantee that buyers used to Bitcoin will actually use Monero to a significant extent. I think the dramatic price rise is part speculation that Monero will actually be used, combined with significant exposure in the media bringing new and old buyers back in. IMO Monero was also undervalued.

What will be interesting is the first week of September. What will happen to the price of Monero if deepdotweb reports that no one cares to use Monero rather than Bitcoin in those two darknet markets?

[rpietila]

It just initially seemed hard to believe due to the relativity low amount of BTC it used to take to achieve 5K but you make some very valid points, thanks 

The amount of BTC required, matters surprisingly little. If we know the total number of coins, have any idea of the total number of holders, and estimate the largest holding, the degrees of freedom are used up.

[luigi1111]

Well, when people say MOON, Rocket starting, the Darknet buys Monero now and so on, that's all a very optimistic sight of what is actually happening. Like mentioned a few posts earlier to this, insider information, large bags of BTC to play with, manipulating some markets --> plural (did you watch the other noname coins yesterday), is obvious.

Of course i also would like to see XMR beeing the #1 cyrpto in the world used by everybody to do what everybody likes, but that is not the case, yet.
This IS manipulation, maybe the cashout of the bitfinex hack, and that is obvious. If you tell me this is "natural" growth of XMR, i would like to discus your arguments guys

What is "manipulation", really? What is "natural"?

Of course a component of the rally is speculation due to the news on DNMs. I would even bet it is the largest component. These last few days are completely unprecedented in Monero-land; the correlation with the news is extremely strong. Is this speculation "manipulation"? There are of course other components as well. You seem to be assigning a high (nay, overwhelming) % to some other "manipulation" by those with "large bags of BTC to play with".

The XMR market represents the current consensus on the price of XMR. Part of that consensus is "manipulation"; part is "natural"; part might be "other". No market participant is exactly like another. You do not and cannot *know* the intent of the market participants except yourself. You can thus only guess at what you think is going on. When you say in the affirmative "This IS manipulation", you declare that which you do not know.

You request "our" arguments for "natural" growth, but provide none for "manipulation" beyond that it "is obvious".

[kaeste]

Well, when people say MOON, Rocket starting, the Darknet buys Monero now and so on, that's all a very optimistic sight of what is actually happening. Like mentioned a few posts earlier to this, insider information, large bags of BTC to play with, manipulating some markets --> plural (did you watch the other noname coins yesterday), is obvious.

Of course i also would like to see XMR beeing the #1 cyrpto in the world used by everybody to do what everybody likes, but that is not the case, yet.
This IS manipulation, maybe the cashout of the bitfinex hack, and that is obvious. If you tell me this is "natural" growth of XMR, i would like to discus your arguments guys

What is "manipulation", really? What is "natural"?

Of course a component of the rally is speculation due to the news on DNMs. I would even bet it is the largest component. These last few days are completely unprecedented in Monero-land; the correlation with the news is extremely strong. Is this speculation "manipulation"? There are of course other components as well. You seem to be assigning a high (nay, overwhelming) % to some other "manipulation" by those with "large bags of BTC to play with".

The XMR market represents the current consensus on the price of XMR. Part of that consensus is "manipulation"; part is "natural"; part might be "other". No market participant is exactly like another. You do not and cannot *know* the intent of the market participants except yourself. You can thus only guess at what you think is going on. When you say in the affirmative "This IS manipulation", you declare that which you do not know.

You request "our" arguments for "natural" growth, but provide none for "manipulation" beyond that it "is obvious".

Wise words. Couldn't describe that better as you did now.

[smoothie]

If there is a drop before Sept 1st then it will be very brief imo. The upside is still much greater than the downside at the moment. We know Monero can support a price of approx 0.003x without any of this darknet market adoption. When you consider the size of the total darknet markets the rise to the current price of 0.007x seems relatively small to me.

I think anything in the 0.0065-0.0075 range is a good buy at the moment, post Sept 1st I guess all bets are off.

Just because a couple of dark net markets make Monero available as a payment option does not guarantee that buyers used to Bitcoin will actually use Monero to a significant extent. I think the dramatic price rise is part speculation that Monero will actually be used, combined with significant exposure in the media bringing new and old buyers back in. IMO Monero was also undervalued.

What will be interesting is the first week of September. What will happen to the price of Monero if deepdotweb reports that no one cares to use Monero rather than Bitcoin in those two darknet markets?

Not if, but when bitcoin users on DNMs start to hear about claw backs from law enforcement being able to trace their transactions...I think they will attempt to find another solution.

Of course I don't condone buying illegal substances, but that is the case with Cash already so there is no difference there.

[aminorex]

I think the majority of products offered in DNMs are actually legal, but embarrassing to the seller and buyer.

Not most of the funds spent, mind you, just products on offer.

[Dafar]

You mean I should FOMO right now?

What is your strategy for the investment?

- For trading, FOMO is usually not good, but you can buy others' FOMO and trade profitably.

- For believing that Monero will rock the world, think of it as having a 50M USD marketcap!! Any rocking of anybody's monetary system requires a market cap 1,000 times that big (in reality a million times, but that much profit is hard to comprehend), so it absolutely does not matter at all whether you buy after a doubling move, just do it!

- BUT since the upside is so large, it does not matter if you wait either If you have any reason to believe you can buy cheaper with accumulation strategy etc, just do it! If you don't have any experience trading/timing XMR, just do it!

My investment strategy is to buy and hold... I think at the very least Monero should have a market cap over $100M and it shouldn't be too difficult to get there. You're right, it doesn't matter when I get in but I'm afraid of being a bag holder or waiting years to see any gains.

I've accumulated BTC since early 2013 and for the amount I have I was expecting to have made significant profits by now, maybe even gain financial freedom. But now BTC is stagnant with uncertainties of a HF due to blocksize drama and threats of new alts like XMR taking over. The potential was clear as day, it is with XMR too, but even with clear fundamentals the price seems to do whatever it wants