[XMR] Monero Speculation

[primer-]

He is ofcourse lying about his mining and of how profitable mining is.  Mining was very profitable when price was halved. Now is super profitable. But for sure miners will join with time.

Do the math yourself idiot. A single GTX 800 hashes at 600H/s - that is .2 XMR per day

[Globb0]

He is ofcourse lying about his mining and of how profitable mining is.  Mining was very profitable when price was halved. Now is super profitable. But for sure miners will join with time.

Do the math yourself idiot. A single GTX 800 hashes at 600H/s - that is .2 XMR per day

Maths

[Azael]

He is ofcourse lying about his mining and of how profitable mining is.  Mining was very profitable when price was halved. Now is super profitable. But for sure miners will join with time.

Do the math yourself idiot. A single GTX 800 hashes at 600H/s - that is .2 XMR per day

I have XMR loans out on Polo for 0.49% a day for 60 days. Should they be out for the full duration that'd be a 29.4% XMR return.

Doubt we'll see those rates soon again though. Got them in when the price were around 0.005 and the XMR loaning market were illiquid since people rather took margin with their XMR or wanted to be ready to sell their XMR when it was breaking out thinking it will be temporary. Whoever has my XMR now is trapped inside a horrific short position and seemingly unwilling to cut losses.

This is something for miners who do not care about trading to be aware of. Next time XMR breaks out be sure to check out the lending market instead of taking the 0.15%/day rates you have there now.

[DaveyJones]

He is ofcourse lying about his mining and of how profitable mining is.  Mining was very profitable when price was halved. Now is super profitable. But for sure miners will join with time.

Do the math yourself idiot. A single GTX 800 hashes at 600H/s - that is .2 XMR per day

I have XMR loans out on Polo for 0.49% a day for 60 days. Should they be out for the full duration that'd be a 29.4% XMR return.

Doubt we'll see those rates soon again though. Got them in when the price were around 0.005 and the XMR loaning market were illiquid since people rather took margin with their XMR or wanted to be ready to sell their XMR when it was breaking out thinking it will be temporary. Whoever has my XMR now is trapped inside a horrific short position and seemingly unwilling to cut losses.

This is something for miners who do not care about trading to be aware of. Next time XMR breaks out be sure to check out the lending market instead of taking the 0.15%/day rates you have there now.

Lucky you ... my loan was closed when we hit 950 :/

[Globb0]

He is ofcourse lying about his mining and of how profitable mining is.  Mining was very profitable when price was halved. Now is super profitable. But for sure miners will join with time.

Do the math yourself idiot. A single GTX 800 hashes at 600H/s - that is .2 XMR per day

I have XMR loans out on Polo for 0.49% a day for 60 days. Should they be out for the full duration that'd be a 29.4% XMR return.

Doubt we'll see those rates soon again though. Got them in when the price were around 0.005 and the XMR loaning market were illiquid since people rather took margin with their XMR or wanted to be ready to sell their XMR when it was breaking out thinking it will be temporary. Whoever has my XMR now is trapped inside a horrific short position and seemingly unwilling to cut losses.

This is something for miners who do not care about trading to be aware of. Next time XMR breaks out be sure to check out the lending market instead of taking the 0.15%/day rates you have there now.

Interesting is this loan market worth it for someone with about 1k Mons?

The talk here was usually that loaners were hurting the price or something for very little gains, so I didn't look any further. 

[aminorex]

The kind of revenue US government and Wall street can generate stomps any shady DNM.


I like Monero though and hold some but the two should definitely reach parity again at some point.

There is a leap in your logic which I think needs some filling.

The two are totally different objects.  One is a currency. The other is a commodity.  One derives its value from scarcity and fungibility.  The other derives its value from uniqueness.  Why should there be price party between radically different objects fulfilling radically different functions?

Fisher's quantity theory of money describes the fundamental value of XMR.  The current price is a speculation on future value, discounted by risk.

The value of FCT is described by discounted cash flows in a commodity business, which must inevitably race with competitors to minimum operable margins.

I am not saying that the market is right.  But I am saying that parity is not even remotely reasonable.

Edit: I do not own FCT.  I consider it a speculation, and un-investable. I do own Monero.  I consider it to be the technological evolution of money itself.

[DaveyJones]

He is ofcourse lying about his mining and of how profitable mining is.  Mining was very profitable when price was halved. Now is super profitable. But for sure miners will join with time.

Do the math yourself idiot. A single GTX 800 hashes at 600H/s - that is .2 XMR per day

I have XMR loans out on Polo for 0.49% a day for 60 days. Should they be out for the full duration that'd be a 29.4% XMR return.

Doubt we'll see those rates soon again though. Got them in when the price were around 0.005 and the XMR loaning market were illiquid since people rather took margin with their XMR or wanted to be ready to sell their XMR when it was breaking out thinking it will be temporary. Whoever has my XMR now is trapped inside a horrific short position and seemingly unwilling to cut losses.

This is something for miners who do not care about trading to be aware of. Next time XMR breaks out be sure to check out the lending market instead of taking the 0.15%/day rates you have there now.

Interesting is this loan market worth it for someone with about 1k Mons?

The talk here was usually that loaners were hurting the price or something for very little gains, so I didn't look any further. 

Well the biggest failure would be if the Exchange goxxed, every little or big gain is nil if that event happens. On the other hand is see it like this, every interest i get are monero someone else cannot buy and dump, shorters need to buy back the coins they use and also provide liquidity. Example with around 330 Monero i got like 1 Monero per day at 0,4x % rates. Don´t play with money you cannot lose, in that case rather but it into a cold wallet.

[aminorex]

The talk here was usually that loaners were hurting the price or something for very little gains, so I didn't look any further.  

Short markets assist in price discovery but increase short-term heteroscedasticity.  If you want near-term price stability you don't like the short market. If you want the central tendency to be as precise to the demand curve price as possible, and short-term volatility is no concern, then you like short markets.  Here I am ignoring high-frequency trading, and considering only investment impact. 

XMR will need to stabilize to be a good unit of account, or even a good transmission of value mechanism.  That cannot happen until price discovery is more efficient -thus- It cannot happen until the discounting rate stabilizes  -thus- It cannot happen until one heck of a lot of drama has played out.  In the long run short markets will be an aid to stability, once the market cap and exchange volume are much larger than any potential squeeze.  Meanwhile we can try to front-run squeezes, both long and short, when they occur, or we can look past them. 

[sammy007]

Lucky you ... my loan was closed when we hit 950 :/

I am not sure if there is something more idiotic than giving away your coins to dump for a tiny fraction of it.
Your loan closed because idiot who tried to short your coins got liquidated, you are lucky because under some circumstances you can receive back less coins than you lent.

[kaeste]

Lucky you ... my loan was closed when we hit 950 :/

I am not sure if there is something more idiotic than giving away your coins to dump for a tiny fraction of it.
Your loan closed because idiot who tried to short your coins got liquidated, you are lucky because under some circumstances you can receive back less coins than you lent.

yea, it's better to buy on top and hold, so Market Maker can make profit on you xD

[aminorex]

yea, it's better to buy on top and hold, so Market Maker can make profit on you xD

Market makers get nothing from holders, only from traders.

80% of all day-traders are losers.  20% are gambling addicts.  Rough numbers. (Edit: Mostly, the addicts are a subset of the losers.)

And yes, it is better to buy on a breakout, because every new ATH is preceded by a breakout.

[DaveyJones]

Lucky you ... my loan was closed when we hit 950 :/

I am not sure if there is something more idiotic than giving away your coins to dump for a tiny fraction of it.
Your loan closed because idiot who tried to short your coins got liquidated, you are lucky because under some circumstances you can receive back less coins than you lent.

sammy007 as far as i know every squeezed margin position on Polo got paid back to the lender, i have yet to hear about someone who did not get his coins back. 2.5x leverage aint that big of a leverage to risk that... i think polo´s liquidation algorithm is good enough for that. Also like i said before... if you are afraid of losing it, put it into cold wallet.

[aminorex]

sammy007 as far as i know every squeezed margin position on Polo got paid back to the lender, i have yet to hear about someone who did not get his coins back. 2.5x leverage aint that big of a leverage to risk that... i think polo´s liquidation algorithm is good enough for that. Also like i said before... if you are afraid of losing it, put it into cold wallet.

One or the other will inevitably occur: liquidation loss (small) and/or exchange hack/bankruptcy.  Polo is AFAICT a very tight ship, but it is not immune to physics. We cannot diversify and decentralize fast enough for me.  We are outgrowing Polo.  Competitors will recognize this soon enough.

[DaveyJones]

Lucky you ... my loan was closed when we hit 950 :/

I am not sure if there is something more idiotic than giving away your coins to dump for a tiny fraction of it.
Your loan closed because idiot who tried to short your coins got liquidated, you are lucky because under some circumstances you can receive back less coins than you lent.

sammy007 as far as i know every squeezed margin position on Polo got paid back to the lender, i have yet to hear about someone who did not get his coins back. 2.5x leverage aint that big of a leverage to risk that... i think polo´s liquidation algorithm is good enough for that. Also like i said before... if you are afraid of losing it, put it into cold wallet.

One or the other will inevitably occur: liquidation loss (small) and/or exchange hack/bankruptcy.  Polo is AFAICT a very tight ship, but it is not immune to physics. We cannot diversify and decentralize fast enough for me.  We are outgrowing Polo.  Competitors will recognize this soon enough.

This is the reason why i always say, BTC network effects are not a plus to BTC.... everything that get´s successful by its own will get the network effect + hashrate + anything else the network effect preachers tell. it is kind of a law of nature.

[Azael]

He is ofcourse lying about his mining and of how profitable mining is.  Mining was very profitable when price was halved. Now is super profitable. But for sure miners will join with time.

Do the math yourself idiot. A single GTX 800 hashes at 600H/s - that is .2 XMR per day

I have XMR loans out on Polo for 0.49% a day for 60 days. Should they be out for the full duration that'd be a 29.4% XMR return.

Doubt we'll see those rates soon again though. Got them in when the price were around 0.005 and the XMR loaning market were illiquid since people rather took margin with their XMR or wanted to be ready to sell their XMR when it was breaking out thinking it will be temporary. Whoever has my XMR now is trapped inside a horrific short position and seemingly unwilling to cut losses.

This is something for miners who do not care about trading to be aware of. Next time XMR breaks out be sure to check out the lending market instead of taking the 0.15%/day rates you have there now.

Lucky you ... my loan was closed when we hit 950 :/

Sometimes you just run good! The fella on the other end must be in denial or a determined bear.

[Azael]

He is ofcourse lying about his mining and of how profitable mining is.  Mining was very profitable when price was halved. Now is super profitable. But for sure miners will join with time.

Do the math yourself idiot. A single GTX 800 hashes at 600H/s - that is .2 XMR per day

I have XMR loans out on Polo for 0.49% a day for 60 days. Should they be out for the full duration that'd be a 29.4% XMR return.

Doubt we'll see those rates soon again though. Got them in when the price were around 0.005 and the XMR loaning market were illiquid since people rather took margin with their XMR or wanted to be ready to sell their XMR when it was breaking out thinking it will be temporary. Whoever has my XMR now is trapped inside a horrific short position and seemingly unwilling to cut losses.

This is something for miners who do not care about trading to be aware of. Next time XMR breaks out be sure to check out the lending market instead of taking the 0.15%/day rates you have there now.

Interesting is this loan market worth it for someone with about 1k Mons?

The talk here was usually that loaners were hurting the price or something for very little gains, so I didn't look any further. 

The rates are at 0.15% now should there be another breakout it could see 0.49% again which is more than 3 times the current.

Maybe maybe not. Depends on market conditions, high rates could bring actors into market for the sake of loaning it out same goes for miners who would otherwise dump the coins but they might do that later anyway who knows. What I do know is that if my loan is out for the full duration I'll have 29.4% more XMR coming from a short seller that I'll either reinvest into loans, keep or sell. XMR has no intrinsic problem so it should be able to deal with the free market like any other coin and all that comes with it I sure as hell won't let anybody else tell me what to do with my money.

The ones who told you that are probably the ones loaning themselves. By the time this runs out there are probably better opportunities for me as if you look through other lending markets people figure this stuff out pretty quickly. The only way to hike up the rates is if XMR continues it's bull run and it becomes an opportunity risk to lend like not being able to sell when you want to but if that's not what you're looking to do during the duration then why not.

[Azael]

XMR went from $25M to close to roughly $60M market cap on a DNM announcement.
FCT has Department of Homeland Security and a Wall Street firm amongst their clients.

There's a mismatch with the demographic of crypto here and many investors put their idealism before money. The US government and Wall Street are easily in the top 5 of what most crypto people despise and for this reason it'll take some time to reach price discovery. The kind of revenue US government and Wall street can generate stomps any shady DNM.


I like Monero though and hold some but the two should definitely reach parity again at some point.

There is a leap in your logic which I think needs some filling.

The two are totally different objects.  One is a currency. The other is a commodity.  One derives its value from scarcity and fungibility.  The other derives its value from uniqueness.  Why should there be price party between radically different objects fulfilling radically different functions?

Fisher's quantity theory of money describes the fundamental value of XMR.  The current price is a speculation on future value, discounted by risk.

The value of FCT is described by discounted cash flows in a commodity business, which must inevitably race with competitors to minimum operable margins.

I am not saying that the market is right.  But I am saying that parity is not even remotely reasonable.

Edit: I do not own FCT.  I consider it a speculation, and un-investable. I do own Monero.  I consider it to be the technological evolution of money itself.

FCT despite different characteristics to XMR and goals outlined by developers is still a cryptocurrency with monetary value. Monero developers can't force you to use your XMR in a way they just say can they? Mark Zuckerberg probably didn't envision or intend Facebook to be filled with horse shit but the platform doesn't care.

Seems inevitable FCT reaches equal market cap then beyond XMR at some point simply based on my prior reasoning.

[aminorex]

Seems inevitable FCT reaches equal market cap then beyond XMR at some point simply based on my prior reasoning.

I am hoping that, at some point, you will tell us what that reasoning is. I haven't been able to discern it from your posts here.

[Azael]

sammy007 as far as i know every squeezed margin position on Polo got paid back to the lender, i have yet to hear about someone who did not get his coins back. 2.5x leverage aint that big of a leverage to risk that... i think polo´s liquidation algorithm is good enough for that. Also like i said before... if you are afraid of losing it, put it into cold wallet.

One or the other will inevitably occur: liquidation loss (small) and/or exchange hack/bankruptcy.  Polo is AFAICT a very tight ship, but it is not immune to physics. We cannot diversify and decentralize fast enough for me.  We are outgrowing Polo.  Competitors will recognize this soon enough.

I haven't heard about anyone not being paid back a loan on Poloniex. This indicates they have tight algorithms for illiquid markets. What would tell you otherwise?

As for lending the only thing I wouldn't lend is BTC since it is what gets stolen. Who would spend months figuring out a way to steal XMR when the only real market is the same exchange they would hack? And when you consider the recent hacks of Bitstamp, Shapeshift and BFX you'll find in comparison to the older ones they didn't lose all their Bitcoins and just like the others BFX is still up and trying to make their customers whole. Shapeshifts architecture didn't affect users and Bitstamp covered them.

You'll notice I left out Cryptsy and maybe some other smaller exchanges I haven't heard of but to me this was a long time coming.

[Azael]

Seems inevitable FCT reaches equal market cap then beyond XMR at some point simply based on my prior reasoning.

I am hoping that, at some point, you will tell us what that reasoning is. I haven't been able to discern it from your posts here.

XMR went from $25M to close to roughly $60M market cap on a DNM announcement.
FCT has Department of Homeland Security and a Wall Street firm amongst their clients.

There's a mismatch with the demographic of crypto here and many investors put their idealism before money. The US government and Wall Street are easily in the top 5 of what most crypto people despise and for this reason it'll take some time to reach price discovery. The kind of revenue US government and Wall street can generate stomps any shady DNM.