[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nanobrain]

Maybe you are a clam.

I'm assuming you are not referring to the shellfish....could you explain the meaning and usage of the term 'clam'?

I was being purposely obtuse and used a simple/silly 2 step association.  clam>shellfish>selfish

When N-rG stated "I see a solid future." after listing a few world wide problems that could cause chaos and pain, I assumed he was not being sarcastic and was looking forward to personal gain steaming from chaos and pain.  Big assumptions to be sure and based in part on his prior posts.  Maybe some see chaos and pain as inevitable but I would rather see crypto adoption and personal gain without it.

Don't rely on bad, do good.

Thanks for the explanation.  I'm not sure I can cope if we start using once removed word associations to parlez; lots of forum folk already struggle with basic semantics.

But I do appreciate your sentiments ie it would be lovely if we could have a more equitable world without pain,misery and chaos as a catalyst and that crypto could act as the means to redistribute wealth more evenly.

Sadly, where the monkeys tread pain, misery and chaos inevitably follow.

@Quicken,
Nice, thanks.

The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.

Ever the party pooper 

   

Someone needs a new truck 

[KeyJockey]

Is anyone else getting bored with this endless channel trading?  Its almost as dull as BTC.

AAAAAAA, careful!

Every time someone complains about volatility being "flat"... it seems like that causes a big price crash, LOL 

Let's just be happy for the moment that the recent nice big re-valuation gains appear to be STICKING, amirite?

Next leg up will come in due course, I believe... more time to consolidate, more time to accumulate cheap coinz LOL

[smoothie]

Is the biggest risk to xmr a community launched zcash clone without the premine and founder tax, like how xmr began?

If I am honest, not many here are interested into Zcash so I do not see it even competing with XMR. Bear in mind, in order to succeed a coin needs network effect which is created by the community willing to buy and hodl - tech is not sufficient enough (we saw this from btc's first generation shitcoin alternatives).

So far Monero has a community that is willing to buy and hodl, and if the community keeps buying and holding, more people will join into the party and that will accelerate the network effect and price surge to the Moon^TM.

If success = price being really high then sure your model works.

Personally it may be fairer to say that price play a part of success. To me it shouldn't play a large part of the "success" definition.

Success doesn't only mean people willing to buy and hold a crypto. Usage/utility and transactional/speculative volume needs to be a factor.

If people are just buying and holding then it is essentially an example of the greater fool theory. Granted that is such a broad spectrum of things that is described as markets go up and down, but I personally would like it if people bought XMR if they need to, not want to just because of hoping the price goes higher.

Then again speculators gonna spec...cu....late.

Success may also involve a threshold of users/nodes that a crypto surpasses. Hitting critical mass is on the road to success, but is it success? I don't think so.

If it holds its adoption over long periods of time then yes it would be successful. But this is 2.5 years into the coin's life, kind of early to call monero successful...yet.

[nioc]

Last week I bought at 150 with the intention of buying on the way down. My first buy on the way down was yesterday at 170.  I still can't get used to paying for bricks and receiving pebbles.  My subconscious feels we are going up from here.

[smoothie]

Last week I bought at 150 with the intention of buying on the way down. My first buy on the way down was yesterday at 170.  I still can't get used to paying for bricks and receiving pebbles.  My subconscious feels we are going up from here.

Large ascending triangle forming.

Top of next oscillation in triangle is probably 0.02 to 0.022

[Dafar]

We know you're a perma-bull but are you just making shit up now?  

Next you're gonna say all these "professionals" / hedge fund managers prefer to invest in monero over bitcoin

No.  And others who read this know some of them.  Some are well-known persons.  I don't think the majority of finance professionals with an interest in crypto prefer Monero over Bitcoin, but I do know that some of them do.  I don't know of any for whom Monero is currently a significant holding.  I.e. almost all of the upside in that market remains untested.  I do know that some of those who took small personal positions on my suggestion, and made large m-t-m gains, are increasing their positions, gradually.  If XMR persistently surpasses LTC, I may pitch it on a more formal basis to acquaintances in cases where I was previously reluctant to raise the topic, because of the small market cap.  Once it surpasses ETH, I doubt my intervention will be meaningful anymore, as anyone with any investment interest in crypto should know about it by then.

It is fair to call me a "permabull" in the sense that even when I have bearish short term views, I have persistent bullish longer term views.  In fact any short term views I may have, are very loosely held, because I don't generally have better information than the market, so I should in the main defer to the market on short-term discounting.  I think I have a better ability to grasp the bigger picture than the market has demonstrated, so I have stronger long-term bullish views.  So far experience has borne out my estimates regarding the longer term arc of Monero developments, but that is no guarantee of future performance.  I am perfectly capable of imagining extreme scenarios of upside which are highly unlikely to occur.  Yet I consider their possibility to be non-negligible, in general.

I don't think I have ever recommended anyone to buy Monero at a time when it would have taken them more than a year to double their money, if they did as I suggested, and DCA'd.  I was recommending BTC at very bad times, and it has taken years for those recommendations to come out from under water.  I felt bad about that, so I am more cautious now, when making recommendations.  I definitely do recommend buying Monero, here, now.  Anything under 0188 is cheap, IMHO.  Under $10, a steal.  If you are underweight, buy it.  In general, people with lower risk tolerance should expect to DCA over a year or more to minimize average draw-downs.

Thanks for the reply

[explorer]

Maybe you are a clam.

I'm assuming you are not referring to the shellfish....could you explain the meaning and usage of the term 'clam'?

I was being purposely obtuse and used a simple/silly 2 step association.  clam>shellfish>selfish

When N-rG stated "I see a solid future." after listing a few world wide problems that could cause chaos and pain, I assumed he was not being sarcastic and was looking forward to personal gain steaming from chaos and pain.  Big assumptions to be sure and based in part on his prior posts.  Maybe some see chaos and pain as inevitable but I would rather see crypto adoption and personal gain without it.

Don't rely on bad, do good.

Thanks for the explanation.  I'm not sure I can cope if we start using once removed word associations to parlez; lots of forum folk already struggle with basic semantics.

But I do appreciate your sentiments ie it would be lovely if we could have a more equitable world without pain,misery and chaos as a catalyst and that crypto could act as the means to redistribute wealth more evenly.

Sadly, where the monkeys tread pain, misery and chaos inevitably follow.

@Quicken,
Nice, thanks.

The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.

Ever the party pooper 

   

Someone needs a new truck 

LOL I've been waiting for weeks already.  Enough!  To the Moon, and beyond!

Nice spike to 0.018.  Next point better not be .0166, Nanobrain!

[TrueCryptonaire]

Is the biggest risk to xmr a community launched zcash clone without the premine and founder tax, like how xmr began?

If I am honest, not many here are interested into Zcash so I do not see it even competing with XMR. Bear in mind, in order to succeed a coin needs network effect which is created by the community willing to buy and hodl - tech is not sufficient enough (we saw this from btc's first generation shitcoin alternatives).

So far Monero has a community that is willing to buy and hodl, and if the community keeps buying and holding, more people will join into the party and that will accelerate the network effect and price surge to the Moon^TM.

If success = price being really high then sure your model works.

Personally it may be fairer to say that price play a part of success. To me it shouldn't play a large part of the "success" definition.

Success doesn't only mean people willing to buy and hold a crypto. Usage/utility and transactional/speculative volume needs to be a factor.

If people are just buying and holding then it is essentially an example of the greater fool theory. Granted that is such a broad spectrum of things that is described as markets go up and down, but I personally would like it if people bought XMR if they need to, not want to just because of hoping the price goes higher.

Then again speculators gonna spec...cu....late.

Success may also involve a threshold of users/nodes that a crypto surpasses. Hitting critical mass is on the road to success, but is it success? I don't think so.

If it holds its adoption over long periods of time then yes it would be successful. But this is 2.5 years into the coin's life, kind of early to call monero successful...yet.

Price doesn't imply success but success implies high price (the deduction goes only one way here).
I agree with you that volume also is a factor. However, you can have large volume in dumps (like ETH had in DAO incident).

To buy and hold a currency is not an example of greater fool theory but I agree it could be. For instance, people hold gold bullion because they know the supply is limited (which is not true - an asteoroid full of gold can hit to my garden etc).
Therefore, gold serves as a store of value, and it is not considered as an example of greater fool is it.

Monero indeed is not yet successful despite my investment is still up 1000 %. I call it a success when people are making lines to my backdoor and sleeping in tents so that they can buy some fractions of Monero from me.
Still Monero community (as well as the crypto in general) is kind of niche market Monero being a niche inside of the niche and thus far away from being mainstream.

Personally I view a successful Monero having ever increasing price trend - by buying any point of time some Moneros and holding it xyz period a buyer should have increased their purchasing power. At least a little bit.

[infofront]

I propose we begin a community-funded ad campaign to encourage people to purchase illicit drugs online.

[dEBRUYNE]

Coincheck will start trading Monero:

https://coincheck.com/blog/2303

https://twitter.com/coincheckjp/status/779151756483670016

[bitwolf]

I propose we begin a community-funded ad campaign to encourage people to purchase illicit drugs online.

Or sex toys. Or w*ores, or meds...  or freeworld literature that's missing in 80% of human population...

[kurious]

Are we to get our French Weekend™ after all...

It's Friday evening where I am and looking promising - nice sexy green winks already 

[CTTE]

Are we to get our French Weekend™ after all...

It's Friday evening where I am and looking promising - nice sexy green winks already  

I really love my Green Eyed Lady! I've been with her since October of 1974!

Edit: I also see that BTC is starting a slight uptrend... I think going forward we may see them moving in tandem more often than not.

[kurious]

Are we to get our French Weekend™ after all...

It's Friday evening where I am and looking promising - nice sexy green winks already  

I really love my Green Eyed Lady! I've been with her since October of 1974!

Edit: I also see that BTC is starting a slight uptrend... I think going forward we may see them moving in tandem more often than not.

If BTC does pop over 600 and stay looking like it's on an up, then the green shoots might pull back. Previously BTC rises initially had an adverse affect on XMR price... but that was then.  It would be good if they did go up in tandem, but I doubt it...

[CTTE]

Are we to get our French Weekend™ after all...

It's Friday evening where I am and looking promising - nice sexy green winks already  

I really love my Green Eyed Lady! I've been with her since October of 1974!

Edit: I also see that BTC is starting a slight uptrend... I think going forward we may see them moving in tandem more often than not.

If BTC does pop over 600 and stay looking like it's on an up, then the green shoots might pull back. Previously BTC rises initially had an adverse affect on XMR price... but that was then.  It would be good if they did go up in tandem, but I doubt it...

I think this may depend on how strong the Monero move is...  based on the value/market cap it may put some buy pressure on BTC if there is the kind of volume we saw on the last breakout, if my memory serves me BTC went up about $60 during that rise.

[DaveyJones]

Are we to get our French Weekend™ after all...

It's Friday evening where I am and looking promising - nice sexy green winks already  

I really love my Green Eyed Lady! I've been with her since October of 1974!

Edit: I also see that BTC is starting a slight uptrend... I think going forward we may see them moving in tandem more often than not.

If BTC does pop over 600 and stay looking like it's on an up, then the green shoots might pull back. Previously BTC rises initially had an adverse affect on XMR price... but that was then.  It would be good if they did go up in tandem, but I doubt it...

I think this may depend on how strong the Monero move is...  based on the value/market cap it may put some buy pressure on BTC if there is the kind of volume we saw on the last breakout, if my memory serves me BTC went up about $60 during that rise.

Don´t forget at the moment it is still most likely that "some" fresh money might enter XMR through BTC till there are enough fiat exchanges established. Thus could lift both.

[Hueristic]

56k was high speed.

I actually had a modem I had to initiate the handshake for by making a shshshshsh sound by mouth! Lol

And all caught up phew, this thread is a bad habit I can;t kick.

Speculate Up then down then sideways.

[ozkraut]

56k was high speed.

I actually had a modem I had to initiate the handshake for by making a shshshshsh sound by mouth! Lol

And all caught up phew, this thread is a bad habit I can;t kick.

Speculate Up then down then sideways.

Oh God that reminds me: downloaded linux slackware from a bbs at 2400 baud in floppy sized chunks. Base and X took me a month. lol

[explorer]

56k was high speed.

I actually had a modem I had to initiate the handshake for by making a shshshshsh sound by mouth! Lol

And all caught up phew, this thread is a bad habit I can;t kick.

Speculate Up then down then sideways.

Oh God that reminds me: downloaded linux slackware from a bbs at 2400 baud in floppy sized chunks. Base and X took me a month. lol

 What was a typical connection rated at in 1987?  First time I used a modem.  I had to pick the lock in the HS computer room filing cabinet to sneak the rotary dial up phone and modem out so a classmate could connect to his home ( ) computer.  Ya, I was more into  'hardware' then  

[ozkraut]

56k was high speed.

I actually had a modem I had to initiate the handshake for by making a shshshshsh sound by mouth! Lol

And all caught up phew, this thread is a bad habit I can;t kick.

Speculate Up then down then sideways.

Oh God that reminds me: downloaded linux slackware from a bbs at 2400 baud in floppy sized chunks. Base and X took me a month. lol

 What was a typical connection rated at in 1987?  First time I used a modem.  I had to pick the lock in the HS computer room filing cabinet to sneak the rotary dial up phone and modem out so a classmate could connect to his home ( ) computer.  Ya, I was more into  'hardware' then  

2400 was the slowest I ever had. Was probably in 92 or so. There were earlier even slower ones like the coupler types but there was no www to connect to. Just BBS's and fidonet for mail. Compuserve lol. Then the lynx character based browser. Then multiplayer doom !