[XMR] Monero Speculation

[KeyJockey]

...therefore it looks like an overall crypto market bubble...

Yeah that's what I was getting at, above, with this idea that any crypto project may be better than dollars if you were to look at it as if the dollar were a newly launched alt-coin (New!  "FedCoin"!!!  Unlimited supply, created by the dev team whenever they want, no blockchain? What could go wrong?)

Even shitcoins with major problems like Dash and ZCash may be able to 'hold value' in the future if it's coming from this worse "FedCoin" thing, LOL

If BTC drops badly and sentiment turns - all market caps will lose $ value.

Yeah that's the bad side, again what I was getting at above with the question about 50% Bitcoin & 50% Alts : if things go wrong and the flow reverses there won't be any way to preserve the "purchasing power gains" that we are seeing now (on paper) except by flipping out of crypto and back into the fucking FedCoin dollars.

And I really don't want to do that...

[aminorex]

and the flow reverses there won't be any way to preserve the "purchasing power gains" that we are seeing now (on paper) except by flipping out of crypto and back into the fucking FedCoin dollars.

And I really don't want to do that...

You can take the flyer on usdt.

[KeyJockey]

You can take the flyer on usdt.

Tethers?  Ha... yeah... no... "unlimited supply, created by the dev team whenever they want, no blockchain? What could go wrong?"  

P.S. {Edit} For anyone unaware: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1881199.0

[dreamspark]

...
Why stop there. Though I find it difficult to rationalise a scenario where any of the current alts are worth their $values without this btc rally

Actually this crypto rally is driven by alts and not XBT. XBT market dominance is plunging http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage This is very different from the past.

Sure, the alts are driving the this general crypto rally/bubble, whatever you want to call it but you cant seriously think that if btc was down in double figures that we would be seeing $100 ETH, $20 ltc etc etc.

All the market share figures are showing is that the alts are outpacing btc in terms of % gains but the real world $ figures would be orders of magnitudes lower if btc wasn't so high. Imo thats undeniable.

[kurious]

...
Why stop there. Though I find it difficult to rationalise a scenario where any of the current alts are worth their $values without this btc rally

Actually this crypto rally is driven by alts and not XBT. XBT market dominance is plunging http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage This is very different from the past.

Sure, the alts are driving the this general crypto rally/bubble, whatever you want to call it but you cant seriously think that if btc was down in double figures that we would be seeing $100 ETH, $20 ltc etc etc.

All the market share figures are showing is that the alts are outpacing btc in terms of % gains but the real world $ figures would be orders of magnitudes lower if btc wasn't so high. Imo thats undeniable.

Sanity + 1

But it can carry on being irrational for longer than you expect.  Just be prepared for when it stops?

[Majormax]

There hasn't been a serious altcoin bubble bursting since the rise of Monero the last year AFAIK. So we have no past data to learn from. I know I'm buying everything I can permit myself between 10-15 euros though in such an event.

This will only be the second serious bubble. It is already at a very late stage : there are many coins with dead blockchains trading huge volumes and price (exactly as before).

The burst of the first, in early 2014, was chaotic, and liquidity drained rapidly from every altcoin into BTC, the only 'safe haven' at the time... The best actively developed coins were hit hard, and recovered very slowly, the dead ones carried on down.

This time it will be instructive to see which of the really big coins are considered 'safe havens' , and which are not.

Hmm, interesting.  So that time when alts in a bubble popped, the value still remained mostly in crypto?  i.e. "drained" to BTC so that the dollar-value stayed mostly the same, if BTC went up about an equal amount as whatever was lost in the altcoin valuations?

Or did the dollar-value of all marketcap just disappear, i.e. crypto as a whole went DOWN at that time?

Just asking because IF this is the case, it seems to me that one would be reasonably well-protected from this situation if the overall crypto portfolio was balanced about 50% bitcoin and 50% "all other alts" (in whatever percentages you like best for those other alts, of course).

Or am I missing something here?  Hmm

I watched every twist and turn of price of virtually every coin at that time, from the rally to the peak, and down again. The total marketcap of BTC fell by around 50% in the first few months after the bust, but the alts got hit much worse, I guess an average of -80% wouldn't be far off. Remember also that BTC was 90% dominant at that time.

On that basis, nothing could protect you from loss in fiat terms, but BTC was the least bad option.

I expect it will be slightly different this time round : I believe its possible that one of the larger alts will be the least bad performer.

[KeyJockey]

Woke up this morning to see Bitcoin another $100 higher... new ATH yet again, $1850's (pushing to $2000?)

And Monero holding more-or-less strongly to "new floor" (?) about $30

Seems like last few months XMR has been 'racheting up' about ten bucks at a time.

We were pretty stable holding around $7-$10 for a while there, last fall, then we got to $20 recently and stuck pretty strong there for about a month.

Now we just popped up quickly over $30 to (what was it?) about $34 or so?   And holding now to $30 as new floor...?

Seems to me that these "rachet ups" are coming faster however, not spending as much time at the ten-dollar increments maybe.  Anyone else see that or am I just overlaying patterns in my mind on data that don't really exist LOL

[saddambitcoin]

Madisontrust.com is the web site of the custodian of record for Broad Financial.  I used them.  Constructing an operating agreement for the LLC is a bit...levered.  it is probably worth paying for advice on that, if you can.

If your crypto is in a Roth you can't use it, but you can borrow cash from the account, and pay yourself back with interest, potentially on a rather long-term plan. Again, the subtlet is suggest legal advice is warranted.  After age 59.5 there are no limits on withdrawals.  Inheritance can be complicated, so consult a professional about that, too.  (Or at least give seed words to your inheritors or executors, so they can dominate any arguments.)

This sounds very interesting. It looks like it's not allowed to sell assets that you own directly to the IRA LLC. Otherwise you could just create one of these, sell your personal crypto to the LLC at the same price you bought it, then have zero capital gains taxes. Definitely seems good to set one up for future purchases though.

[luigi1111]

Inheritance can be complicated, so consult a professional about that, too.  (Or at least give seed words to your inheritors or executors, so they can dominate any arguments.)

This is a good point. When XMR is one day worth $100, $500 or $1000 USD in the years to come. You gonna maybe want to let someone know how to access that juicy XMR wallet(s) just in case you die suddenly (car accident, heart attack etc).

Who to trust the keys to your wallet? I would prefer no one knows until I am actually dead.

Sorry, a bit off-topic I realised.

That is what estate lawyers are for. You can leave the keys to the wallet(s) to someone that do not get to see them until you are actually dead. The legal firm must be trustworthy and, beleive it or not, most are.

One thing you could do is:

1. Use https://xmr.llcoins.net/ to create an encrypted mnemonic seed.
2. Protect your seed as you normally do (safe place, multiple backups, cryptosteel, etc).
3. Give your passphrase to the lawyer (or give instructions on where it can be found), so they can provide this to your beneficiaries when you die.

That way, you control the mnemonic when you are alive, and nobody else has access to the actual seed but you.

edit:

4. Put luigi1111 in your will so that he gets some money when your family asks him how the heck to access the Monero.

Haha

Zip of site on Github (plus signature) is finally updated with the more recent encryption method.

[Billy Bunter]

I strongly advise owning your crypto in an after-tax retirement account, so that gains are tax-free.

Aminorex, can you advise how to do that? Specifically, if I have a Roth IRA at Fidelity, how do I use that to manage my Monero?

Many thanks.

Aminorex can probably give a much better answer to this since it sounds like he's already done it but in the meantime, here's what I found.

I've just started to look at this option for myself and it comes down to creating a Self Directed IRA (ROTH) with checkbook control.  I've seen it explained at https://www.broadfinancial.com/self-directed-ira/ where they set up an LLC explicitly to hold crypto and other assets and then your IRA invests in the LLC which you manage personally, allowing you to fully control your investments directly without having to pay someone fees for every transaction you want to make while waiting for days for it to actually happen.  It seems like a pretty good idea if you believe your investments will grow as much in the future as monero has in the past year or two. So, if your 10,000 Monero that you buy for $30 end up being $1200 each, your gain is completely tax free!

I mentioned Broad Financial but, I don't know how many others are out there that do the same thing maybe with better options, they were just the first firm that showed up in my search so don't take it as a recommendation.

Edit: If anybody has done this and can recommend a good company to work with, that would be  very helpful.

Thank you - I shall investigate further.

[Billy Bunter]

Madisontrust.com is the web site of the custodian of record for Broad Financial.  I used them.  Constructing an operating agreement for the LLC is a bit...levered.  it is probably worth paying for advice on that, if you can.

If your crypto is in a Roth you can't use it, but you can borrow cash from the account, and pay yourself back with interest, potentially on a rather long-term plan. Again, the subtlet is suggest legal advice is warranted.  After age 59.5 there are no limits on withdrawals.  Inheritance can be complicated, so consult a professional about that, too.  (Or at least give seed words to your inheritors or executors, so they can dominate any arguments.)

Thanks for the advice. Maybe I shall see you in the NYC meet up to thank you in person!

[aminorex]

I would be interested to know of anyone who has been able to withdraw any crypto from poloniex in the past 8 hours or so.

[Black Arrow]

I would be interested to know of anyone who has been able to withdraw any crypto from poloniex in the past 8 hours or so.

I just successfully withdrew about $650 worth of BTS a few minutes ago.

[SolarStorm]

I would be interested to know of anyone who has been able to withdraw any crypto from poloniex in the past 8 hours or so.

I just successfully withdrew about $650 worth of BTS a few minutes ago.

i withdrew btc and nem about 10 hours ago. no problems.

[prabakharras]

I withdraw from poloneix, no problem at all.

And it looks like now its not a rally, but some coins goes up and down.
https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/usd seens to be stabalizing and having baseline

[Febo]

I would be interested to know of anyone who has been able to withdraw any crypto from poloniex in the past 8 hours or so.

There is just a lot of FUD going on of poloniex and ofcourse because of increased traffic on site they could no hire enough support and trained it on time.  Their response times prolonged greatly.

Because of this FUD i started puling my money out 3 days ago, first because i got scared, but latter realised,i keep way to much there, since i dont daytrade at all. I was to lazy and just keep my latest buys on Poloniex.  So sometimes even FUD is not so bad.


PS: I just withdrew some more BCY, an counterparty asset.

[neilol-real]

I would be interested to know of anyone who has been able to withdraw any crypto from poloniex in the past 8 hours or so.

Yes - both XMR and XCP. Fairly small amounts however.

[KeyJockey]

I would be interested to know of anyone who has been able to withdraw any crypto from poloniex in the past 8 hours or so.

Yes - both XMR and XCP. Fairly small amounts however.

Same here... a few different coins, isolated times all day yesterday but no problems withdrawing.

Had some trouble getting a buy-order to go thru as the site was crashing, had to close the tab and reopen exchange window 3-4 times and re-enter the order before it finally worked.  But no issues on WITHDRAWALS (albeit again just 'small amounts' too... nothing huge).

[luigi1111]

I would be interested to know of anyone who has been able to withdraw any crypto from poloniex in the past 8 hours or so.

I withdrew 1000 XMR successfully yesterday afternoon. I got the confirmation email in approximately 2 seconds, and the transaction appeared on the network approximately 2 minutes after confirmation.

[RayX12]

I would be interested to know of anyone who has been able to withdraw any crypto from poloniex in the past 8 hours or so.

I withdrew 1000 XMR successfully yesterday afternoon. I got the confirmation email in approximately 2 seconds, and the transaction appeared on the network approximately 2 minutes after confirmation.

No problems here, yesterday btc and xrp.